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Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up Highlights for Today - Trends and Market Share - Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise - Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway - Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges - Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest 1. Trends and Market Share Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025. Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense. Key Trends to Watch -Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative. -Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix. -YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion. -Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix. 2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter. -Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers. -Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024. - Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled. - Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets. - Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum. Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership. 3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring -Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million. -Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year. -Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas. -Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID. -Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user. Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical. 4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges -Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022. -Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%. -Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom. -Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability. -CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization. Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability. 5.Paramount: Streaming Growth -Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter. -TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%. -Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders. -Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs. -Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline. Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.

7 points to check before investing in any company Stock picking is the core of value investing. Legends like Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and Vijay Kedia are Masters of It. In this post ,l will teach you how to analyze stocks like a professional. Stock picking plays a pivotal role in identifying undervalued companies with significant growth potential. Here are 7 points to check before investing in any company. Let’s start... (Last one is the most important) Business profile: How does the company make money? If the business profile doesn’t look attractive or money-making system is complex for you to understand, you can stop looking into the company right away. Always invest in companies whose business is easy to understand and within your circle of competence. Management and Promoters structure: You want to invest in companies with good management who are focused on long-term growth. Look at the track record of current management. Look whether insiders are heavily buying into their own stock, it’s a great sign. I have seen many promoters who are just dumping their shares to retailers and exiting. Avoid such companies. Moat: Just like strategy provides an edge in trading to a trader. A moat is a unique competitive advantage that a company has over its competitors. Invest in clear market leaders with strong pricing power. For eg: e Titan in Jewelry e BSE in stock exchange Growth capital: Good companies don’t require much capital to grow. Check their annual report and seeing which companies are growing in revenue and profits, but the increase in expenses are very less. CAPEX/Sales and CAPEX/Operating Cash Flow are 2 great metrics to look at the capital efficiency of a company. Capital usage: The most important task for company management is to use the capital wisely. We want a company that is re-investing in its business and buying their own shares. You want to invest in companies with a ROIC > 15% Balance sheet & profitability: Only invest in companies which are in good financial health. Don’t trust what their management is speaking , see their results in balance sheet. We want companies with low debt, high cash flow & high gross margins. Outlook: This is most important. Good past records don't gurantee future growth. So it iss very important to invest in a company with a good outlook. Seek companies which are active in a secular trend. Invest in the Future. Renewable Energy, EV, Ecommerce, Digital Payment, Luxury Etc.

How The Economy Affects The Stock Market ? How The Economy Affects The Stock Market ? There are many factors that affect how the stock market is doing, and whether it’s moving up or down: the political climate, social factors, interest rates, trends and shifts in what investors prefer. So how does the economy affect the stock market? If the general population feels as if the economy will soon be taking a turn for the worse, they tend to sell stock because bonds and treasuries offer a safer return. On the flip side, when people are feeling confident and optimistic about the economy, they tend to buy stock, taking more risk for greater reward. From a high-level approach, when people feel good about the economy, they tend to buy more stock. When things are happening in the world make them feel unsure, they will be more conservative, and might gravitate toward lower-risk investments such as bonds and Treasury bills. .

Barrelin 2.0 - Without Rules There Is Chaos!I am now about 4 weeks into sharing my #Barrelin pattern and associated trading strategy mostly on Twitter. In that time I have developed more regimented rules in hopes of automating the hunting if not the trades themselves. Here is the strategy as it stands today: ————- Entry 4hr close above 75% on RSI (14) Continuation Hold EMA (8) on 4hr close OR 1D close above 75% on RSI (14) (aka ‘Handoff to 1D’) AND Hold EMA (8) on 1D close OR 1W close above 75% on RSI (14) (aka ‘Handoff to 1W’) AND Hold EMA (8) on 1W close OR 1M close above 75% on RSI (14) (aka ‘Handoff to 1M’) AND Hold EMA (8) on 1M close Exit Close below EMA (8) on current timeframe that is #Barrelin ——— These handoffs are ideal but I am also starting to see, especially in stocks, the 4hr time frame is not only awkward with the limited trading but there are entries all the time on the higher timeframes without handoffs. The lower timeframes give an idea of momentum and personal preference can be used what timeframe to enter. This brings context to if you are “late” or not. I have posted over 650 tweets in those 4 weeks so searching through #Barrelin will help give a better idea of the ridiculous gains with it. Obviously there are fails and losers as well. I try to post these as well in order to see where the strategy can grow and evolve. The biggest evolution I am currently working on is a trailing take profit with a re-entry. Not sure how hard that part will be to automate but might as well fine tune the idea as much as possible and see what comes of it. Just with the shear volume of crypto and stocks I am following I have narrowed things down to just BTC pairs on Binance for crypto and no longer monitoring timeframes below the 4hr. It is personally impossible to still have any sort of life at that level. As for stocks I have been transformed into a fanboy!!! I can’t believe it. The gains seem to be more consistent and much more explosive - at least in the current atmosphere. There is still crypto popping off but I recommend crypto lovers to give my timeline a visit to see the crazy gains. I am loving the engagement with me and my strategy and I feel it is helping people which os my ultimate goal. I look forward to what the next 4 weeks brings as I try to scale this. Thanks for reading all the way through. Time is precious and I appreciate you investing some of your time here.

AMZN AMAZON Potential shorting opportunity When certain stocks have unfilled/un-traded areas (gaps) in the market, often the market going to revisit those areas later on. So these are areas can be targets for your trades. But in order to target those areas, we need a reason to get in. The most profitable/common method is waiting till the market exhaust and put a reversal signal. AMAZON is most likely to make a end to the BULL run and head back to fill those unfilled areas in the market. So waiting for a strong reversal signal or make another higher high with confluence to get SHORT. Good Luck Trading