Finding Bottoms Using Monthly Inside Candles: SNOWThis past year, I shared many bottoms on names on my weekly WLs based on bottoming consolidation structures, mentioning a specific strategy as a reasoning for the trades. Aside from understanding price action, I used a simple method:
Monthly inside candles/bars.
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What is an inside candle/bar?
Inside candles trade “inside” its previous candle. The previous candle’s high and low can be used as resistance and support, respectively. Your trade execution comes on a break & hold above/below the range.
Here are a few examples of this:
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NYSE:SNOW
This has traded within it’s May ‘22 inside range for over a year. This has been one of my top watches earlier this year.
The range provides a macro resistance/support of $187.23 and $112.10, respectively. These levels can now be used as targets for your trades.
How do I execute on this?
Zoom into LTFs to find swing opportunities. In my 1/23/23 weekly watchlist, I provided NYSE:SNOW based on a previous bull div + key support/demand being held (red box).
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All swing contracts provided on the WL printed, while NYSE:SNOW saw a massive upside move from $140 into $178.70 within 2 weeks.
You’ll also notice my invalidation for this was $133.10 while the low was $134.34. This invalidation was based on a breakdown of the range low.
Now once again, on 3/31/2023 I mentioned NYSE:SNOW as a potential high R:R trade.
Based on the exact same reasoning as my January WL.
Once again, NYSE:SNOW was able to hold its demand zone with a macro target of the monthly inside candle resistance.
NYSE:SNOW
The same exact entry & same exact analysis now provided a recent move into my $187.23 target. First move providing a 33% move, second providing a 42% move.
This is how you take advantage of macro inside ranges (specifically monthly candles in these examples).
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Technical-analysis
reversal technical patterns overview part oneReversal Technical Patterns overview: Part One
Reversal patterns are frequently spotted at the end of the bear/bull market cycles. Here are some of the key patterns with higher probabilities. Can be applied to any market, including forex, crypto, stocks, indices and metals.
Double Bottom (Bulls)
Double Top (Bears)
🔸A double bottom pattern is a classic technical analysis charting formation showing a major change in trend from a prior down move. The double bottom pattern looks like the letter W.
🔸The double top is a type of chart pattern that is an indication that the prevailing trend may reverse, in the short or long term.
🔸The double top is a common occurrence towards the end of a bullish market. The price formation looks like two peaks that occur after one another.
🔸The double bottom formation typically occurs at the end of a downward trending or declining market.
🔸 The double bottom is similar to the double top, but the key difference between the two can be seen in the inverse or negative relationship in price.
Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bulls)
Head and Shoulders (Bears)
🔸The inverse head and shoulders pattern begins with a downtrend. This is the extended move down that eventually leads to exhaustion and a reversal higher as sellers exit and buyers step up. That downtrend is met by minor support, which forms the first shoulder. As the market begins to move higher, it bounces off strong resistance and the downtrend resumes. This resistance level forms the neckline.
🔸Pattern is defined by the head / left shoulder / right shoulder and neckline.
🔸The H*S pattern is a bearish market pattern will appear near market tops. The first shoulder forms after a significant bullish period in the market when the price rises and then declines into a trough. The head is then formed when the price increases again, creating a high peak above the level of the first shoulder formation. From this point, the price falls and creates the second shoulder, which is usually similar in appearance to the first shoulder.
🔸The pattern is completed, giving a market reversal signal, when the price declines again, breaking below the neckline. The neckline, as depicted above, is the horizontal line that connects the first two troughs to one another.
Three Drives (Bulls)
Three Drives (Bears)
🔸The three-drive is a rare price pattern formed by three consecutive symmetrical drives up or down. In its bullish form, the market is making three final drives to a bottom before an uptrend forms. In a bearish three-drive, it is peaking before the bears take over. A three-drive contains two overlapping ABCD patterns.
🔸There are multiple ways of trading a Three drives pattern:
You can trade the drive 3. Enter the market when you are sure that the market has formed the point B (buy in a bearish Three-Drive and sell in a bullish Three Drive).
You can trade when the entire pattern is complete.
🔸Extensions are always based on fibs, most of the time 1.27 and 1.62.
Falling Wedge (Bulls)
Rising Wedge (Bears)
🔸The falling wedge pattern is interpreted as both a bullish continuation and bullish reversal pattern which gives rise to some confusion in the identification of the pattern. Both scenarios contain different market conditions which must be taken into consideration.
🔸The Falling Wedge in the downtrend indicates a reversal to an uptrend. It is formed when the prices are making Lower Highs and Lower Lows compared to the previous price movements. It gives traders opportunities to take buy positions in the market.
🔸The rising wedge in an uptrend indicates reversal to the downtrend. It is formed when the prices are making Higher Highs and Higher Lows compared to the previous price movements. It gives traders opportunities to take short positions in the market
🔸Generally, traders will wait for a breakout before executing a trade on buy/sell side. Also traders may chose to wait for a re-test of the breakout area before executing a trade.
Mastering the Art of Technical Analysis (Part 6)Advantages of Technical Analysis
- Easy to Use: Technical analysis is easy to use and understand, making it accessible to traders of all levels of experience.
- Objective: Technical analysis is objective, as it relies on data and mathematical calculations rather than subjective opinions.
- Helps Identify Trends: Technical analysis helps traders identify trends, which can be used to make informed trading decisions.
- Provides Entry and Exit Points: Technical analysis can help traders determine entry and exit points for trades, allowing them to make profitable trades.
- Can be Used with Any Asset Class: Technical analysis can be used with any asset class, including stocks, commodities, and forex.
Disadvantages of Technical Analysis
- Past Performance Doesn't Guarantee Future Results: While technical analysis is based on historical data, it does not guarantee future results.
- Can be Subjective: Technical analysis can be subjective, as traders may interpret the same data differently.
- Not Suitable for All Market Conditions: Technical analysis may not be suitable for all market conditions, as some markets may be too volatile or have limited historical data.
- Overreliance on Indicators: Some traders may over rely on technical indicators, which can lead to false signals and poor trading decisions.
- Requires Constant Monitoring: Technical analysis requires constant monitoring of market data and indicators, which can be time-consuming.
Mastering the Art of Technical Analysis (Part 4)Candlestick Patterns
Candlestick charts are a popular type of chart used by traders to analyze price movements. They display the opening and closing prices, as well as the highs and lows, of an asset over a specific time period. Candlestick patterns are formed by the arrangement of multiple candlesticks and can provide insights into market trends and potential price movements.
Doji
A Doji is a candlestick pattern that has the same opening and closing price, or a very small difference between the two. This pattern often indicates indecision in the market and can be a signal for a potential trend reversal.
Hammer
A Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downward trend. It is characterized by a long lower shadow and a small body, and it indicates that buyers have gained control and are pushing the price up.
Shooting Star
A Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an upward trend. It is characterized by a long upper shadow and a small body, and it indicates that sellers have gained control and are pushing the price down.
Engulfing
An Engulfing pattern is a reversal pattern that is formed by two candlesticks. The first candlestick is smaller and the second candlestick completely engulfs the first one. A bullish Engulfing pattern forms at the end of a downtrend and indicates a potential trend reversal. A bearish Engulfing pattern forms at the end of an uptrend and indicates a potential trend reversal.
Harami
A Harami pattern is a reversal pattern that is formed by two candlesticks. The first candlestick is larger and the second candlestick is smaller and is completely engulfed by the first candlestick. A bullish Harami pattern forms at the end of a downtrend and indicates a potential trend reversal. A bearish Harami pattern forms at the end of an uptrend and indicates a potential trend reversal.
Candlestick patterns are an important tool for technical analysis and can provide insights into market trends and potential price movements. By understanding the key principles of each candlestick pattern, traders can gain insights into market trends and make informed trading decisions. However, it is important to note that candlestick patterns are not foolproof and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as fundamental analysis and market news.
Mastering the Art of Technical Analysis (Part 3)Technical indicators are mathematical calculations that are applied to price and volume data to identify potential trading opportunities. They are based on the belief that certain patterns or trends in price and volume data can provide insights into market trends and potential price movements. Technical indicators can be used to confirm trends, identify potential entry and exit points for trades, and to provide signals for when to buy or sell.
Moving Averages
Moving averages are one of the most common technical indicators used by traders. They are used to smooth out the price data and provide a clearer picture of the overall trend. Moving averages can be calculated using different time periods, such as 50-day moving average or a 200-day moving average. A crossover between a shorter-term moving average and a longer-term moving average is often used as a signal for when to buy or sell.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 considered overbought and readings below 30 considered oversold. Traders often use the RSI to identify potential trend reversals or to confirm trends.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator that is used to measure volatility. They consist of three lines - a simple moving average (SMA) in the middle, and two outer bands that are two standard deviations away from the SMA. The outer bands represent the upper and lower price ranges, and the width of the bands changes based on the volatility of the asset. Traders often use Bollinger Bands to identify potential entry and exit points for trades.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that uses two moving averages of different lengths to identify potential entry and exit points for trades. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A signal line, which is a 9-day EMA, is then plotted on top of the MACD line. Traders often use the MACD to identify potential trend reversals or to confirm trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
The Fibonacci retracement is a technical indicator that is used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence. The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical sequence of numbers, in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The retracement levels are calculated based on the high and low points of a particular price movement, and they are used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades.
Mastering the Art of Technical Analysis (Part 2)Understanding the Basics of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is a method of analyzing financial markets that relies on studying past market data to identify patterns and make predictions about future price movements. The aim is to identify opportunities to buy low and sell high or vice versa.
What is technical analysis and why is it important for traders?
Technical analysis is the study of market data, primarily price and volume data, to identify patterns that can be used to make informed trading decisions. It is important for traders because it provides a way to interpret market trends and identify potential entry and exit points for trades.
Unlike fundamental analysis, which focuses on the underlying economic factors that influence a security's value, technical analysis relies solely on the price and volume data of a security. This means that technical analysis can be used on any asset class that has a price chart available, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Technical analysis can be used for short-term trading or long-term investing. For short-term traders, technical analysis can help identify potential entry and exit points for trades based on the movement of price and volume data. For long-term investors, technical analysis can help identify the overall trend of a market or a specific asset class.
The key principles of technical analysis: price action, trends, and support and resistance levels.
The key principles of technical analysis are price action, trends, and support and resistance levels.
Price action refers to the movement of an asset's price over time, and it is the primary focus of technical analysis. Price action can be analyzed using different types of charts, including line, bar, and candlestick charts.
Trends refer to the direction of price movement, and they can be classified as uptrends, downtrends, or sideways trends. Identifying the trend of a market or a specific asset is an essential part of technical analysis, as it helps traders understand the overall direction of price movement.
Support and resistance levels are points on a chart where the price has historically tended to stop moving or reverse direction. Support levels are areas where buyers tend to enter the market, as they believe the price is low enough to represent good value. Resistance levels are areas where sellers tend to enter the market, as they believe the price is high enough to represent good value.
Different types of charts: line, bar, and candlestick charts.
Different types of charts are used in technical analysis, including line, bar, and candlestick charts.
A line chart connects the closing prices of an asset over a period of time with a line, providing a simple view of the overall trend. Line charts are useful for identifying the direction of the trend but do not provide much detail about the price movement within a specific period.
A bar chart shows the opening and closing prices of an asset, as well as the high and low prices during a particular period. Each bar represents a specific time period, such as a day or an hour. Bar charts provide more detailed information about price movements than line charts, as they show the price range for each period.
Candlestick charts display the same information as bar charts, but they use a visual representation of candles to convey price movements. Each candle represents a specific time period, and the color of the candle represents whether the price closed higher or lower than it opened. Candlestick charts provide a more detailed view of price movements than bar charts and are widely used by traders.
Mastering the Art of Technical Analysis (Part 1)Technical analysis is an essential tool for traders to analyze market movements and make informed trading decisions. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, mastering technical analysis can greatly improve your trading performance.
We will explore the basics of technical analysis, the different types of charts and indicators, and how to use them effectively.
Understanding the Basics of Technical Analysis
- What is technical analysis and why is it important for traders?
- The key principles of technical analysis: price action, trends, and support and resistance levels.
- Different types of charts: line, bar, and candlestick charts.
Types of Technical Indicators
- Moving averages: Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
- Oscillators: Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
- Volume Indicators: On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
- Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels.
How to Use Technical Analysis for Trading
- Identifying trading opportunities using technical analysis.
- Setting up trading strategies using technical indicators.
- Understanding risk management and position sizing using technical analysis.
- Combining technical analysis with other trading techniques.
Technical analysis is a valuable tool that traders can use to make informed trading decisions. By understanding the basics of technical analysis and using it effectively, traders can increase their chances of success in the markets.
#Head&Shoulder chart pattern in action
Head and shoulder definition: A simple head and shoulders top formation is characterized by a peak representing
the left shoulder, followed by a higher peak which is referred to as the head of the formation. A lower peak representing the right shoulder is found on the right‐hand side of the head. The head should be the highest peak in the formation. The neckline is a trendline that connects the troughs that lie on either side of the head. Necklines may be horizontal or inclined which in our case is inclined. In an inverted head and shoulders formation (also referred to as a head and shoulders bottom), the head is the lowest
trough within the formation.
Head and shoulder pattern completion: The head and shoulders formation is completed with a valid breakout of the neckline Until a valid penetration has occurred, the formation is regarded as merely tentative. But as you can see in our case the pattern is completed since we can see upside breakout of the chart pattern neckline.
Head and shoulder pattern target: The minimum one‐to‐one price objective or target for a head and shoulders top formation is simply the vertical distance between the head and the neckline projected downward from the neckline breakout level. For an inverted head and shoulders formation, the vertical distance is projected upward from the neckline breakout level. You can see this vertical line in the chart.
Head and shoulder pattern entry:
■■ Short at a break of the right shoulder’s uptrend line with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head (see Point 1 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short at the peak of the right shoulder with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head, especially when there is a significant resistive confluence comprising of significant Fibonacci retracement levels, Floor Trader’s Pivot Point levels, and
psychologically important price levels associated with double and triple zeros
■■ Short at the right shoulder when it is testing the left shoulder’s resistance level, with a stop placed above the resistance level or head
■■ Short on a valid penetration of the neckline with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 2 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on a retest of the neckline after a valid penetration with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 3 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on the penetration of the price associated with the trough created by the retest action, with a stop placed above the trough, neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 4 in Figure 13.9)
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Source: the handbook of technical analysis by Mark Andrew Lim
8 MYTHS ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSISThere are many people and many opinions in the market.
There are those who criticize technical analysis, calling it superficial and even useless.
There are those who consider technical analysis (TA) the holy grail that can bring huge profits.
Today we will try to debunk 8 myths about technical analysis.
myths
1. TA is for short-term trading or day trading only.
Many people think that TA is only suitable for short-term and computer-driven trading, such as day trading and high frequency trades.
The history of TA actually goes back long before computers were invented, and many famous and profitable traders use it for long-term trading.
Technical analysis is used by traders on all timeframes, from minutes to weeks and months.
2. Only individual traders use technical analysis.
In fact, investment banks have dedicated trading teams that use technical analysis.
High-frequency trading, which covers a significant portion of the trading volume of stock exchanges, relies heavily on technical concepts.
3. TA has a low success rate.
To debunk this myth, all you have to do is read Masters of the Market: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager, which quotes many traders who profit solely from technical analysis.
Traders with many years of experience have been making profits using technical analysis for more than a century.
4. Technical analysis is fast and easy.
Novice traders open trades based on a simple TA, but this is not enough to be profitable at a distance.
Success depends on continued study, practice, good money management and discipline.
Technical analysis is just a tool, just one piece of the puzzle.
5. Ready-made technical analysis software can help traders make money easily.
There are a lot of advertisements on the Internet that promise to give you a program for a small amount that will do everything for you and bring you profit - in fact, this is a scam.
There are programs and indicators that can help you trade, but no program will give you guaranteed profits.
6. Technical indicators can be applied to all markets.
Most often, yes, TA can be applied in all markets, but there are exceptions.
Different asset classes move in their own way, with their own characteristics, and a trader must be able to adjust his TA for a particular asset.
Don't make the mistake of applying technical indicators designed for one asset class to another.
7. Technical analysis can give very accurate price predictions.
Beginning traders expect to see 100% accurate signals and accurate profit prices, reversals and so on from TA.
This is simply impossible.
Most often, TA helps to find the zone where the price can go, where it can reverse from and this is not a specific point, this is a zone and experienced traders understand this.
8. The winning percentage in technical analysis should be higher.
If the first trader out of 5 made 4 profitable trades, and the second trader out of 5 made 1, who is more successful?
You need to get more information to give an answer, it may be that the first trader earned $ 10 in 4 trades, but at the same time he lost $ 80 in one and then he will be in the red, and the second trader lost $ 40 in 4 trades , while in one transaction he earned $ 100.
The right trading structure ensures profitability even with a small number of winners.
It is not necessary to have many profitable trades, it is enough that the profit covers losses and something else remains, and sometimes one trade is enough for this.
essence
Technical analysis is not the holy grail, it will not give you 100% profit.
It does not suit everyone and you need to study it before you understand whether it suits you or not.
You need to gain enough experience to learn how to use technical analysis correctly.
When used correctly, TA can give you a real opportunity for trading success.
Good luck!
Correlation of price movementTHESE ARE TWO THEORIES. THE FIRST IS ACCORIDNG TO WYCKOFF, THE SECONS IS THE DOW THEORY
1) Accumulation begins with the price stopping and the formation of support, followed by the end of sales, the opposite level is gradually formed - resistance
and the price goes into a sideways movement. It has a name - Accumulative flat or consolidation. Dow says that it is impossible to trade in flat, this is not a place to trade
2) Consolidation ends when there is an update of the tops and someone from the sides - buyers or sellers, starts winning in the market, but it is quite difficult
to break through from the first time and often a large player deceives the players in this way by making a false breakout.
3) Wyckoff's theory mentions retests of the support level, a sequential movement that follows a stop. Assessment of the state of the lower limit of accumulation,
after which the market reverses and moves in the opposite direction to the previous movement. The accumulation is exited and the trend is reversed.
TREND
In essence, a trend is the direction of the predominant movement of indicators. Usually considered in the framework of technical analysis, where the direction
of price movement is implied. Charles Dow noted that in an uptrend, the subsequent peak on the chart should be higher than the previous ones, in a downtrend,
subsequent downturns on the chart should be lower than the previous ones. There are upward, downward and sideways trends. A trend line is often drawn on the chart,
which connects two or more price troughs in an uptrend, and connects two or more price peaks in a downtrend.
What is impulse and how to make money on it?What is momentum and how to make money on it?
Momentum is a sharp paranormal price movement in one direction or another, unusual for average daily fluctuations of an asset
How to build zones from which impulse movement is most likely to occur?
1) The price is pushed back from the previously built level
2) There is an impulse movement in the other direction
3) Correction to the level, from which the price pushed a little
4) consolidation, consolidation below the level, from which there will be an impulse movement
How it works?
1) the level above which the price consolidates and repels
2) Rollback from the price level at the moment
3) Impulse that breaks the level
4) We need to extend the level to understand where the key point will be
5) Fixing the price below the level
6) In anticipation of an impulse movement, at the very beginning of the movement, after fixing, we open an order
*** Works in the same way in long
What do you need to do, what to earn on this?
1) If you use impulses not all in a row, but the very first one after a trend reversal, then we have a chance to pick up all the movements, it all depends on your benchmarks, where you exit the market, according to your strategies.
2) Not every impulse level is the first, we estimate the situation from strong levels, from which the price can reverse
3) We focus on the opening of the session, the chance that the market will reverse at the end of the working day and give you less profit if it is at the beginning.
It is important to understand:
Price moves from level to level
The price does not always fix directly below / above the level
You can work both on the younger (m5, m15, m30, h1, ch4) and on the higher timeframes (d1, b1, m1)
The older the timeframe, the stronger the level from which an impulse can follow
During an impulse, funds are injected, a large player enters the market or a major player exits the market, stops-losses are collected, i.e. removal of market participants.
Our goal is to follow a major player who leads the price and get profit from it
What is impulse and how to make money on it?What is impulse and how to make money on it?
Momentum is a sharp paranormal price movement in one direction or another, unusual for average daily fluctuations of an asset
How to build zones from which impulse movement is most likely to occur?
1) The price is pushed back from the previously built level
2) There is an impulse movement in the other direction
3) Correction to the level, from which the price pushed a little
4) consolidation, consolidation below the level, from which there will be an impulse movement
How it works?
1) the level above which the price consolidates and repels
2) Rollback from the price level at the moment
3) Impulse that breaks the level
4) We need to extend the level to understand where the key point will be
5) Fixing the price below the level
6) In anticipation of an impulse movement, at the very beginning of the movement, after fixing, we open an order
*** Works in the same way in long
What do you need to do, what to earn on this?
1) If you use impulses not all in a row, but the very first one after a trend reversal, then we have a chance to pick up all the movements, it all depends on your benchmarks, where you exit the market, according to your strategies.
2) Not every impulse level is the first, we estimate the situation from strong levels, from which the price can reverse
3) We focus on the opening of the session, the chance that the market will reverse at the end of the working day and give you less profit if it is at the beginning.
It is important to understand:
Price moves from level to level
The price does not always fix directly below / above the level
You can work both on the younger (m5, m15, m30, h1, ch4) and on the higher timeframes (d1, b1, m1)
The older the timeframe, the stronger the level from which an impulse can follow
During an impulse, funds are injected, a large player enters the market or a major player exits the market, stops-losses are collected, i.e. removal of market participants.
Our goal is to follow a major player who leads the price and get profit from it
Can you spare me 17 mins? How we can help you with your trading!We believe and support the idea there are 3 pillars of profitable trading;
1. Strategy
2. Risk Management
3. Psychology
This video is just 17 mins long but explains how we believe we can help you in all of the 3 areas above.
Would love to read your comments, please let me know what you think.
Thank you,
Darren
Scalping opportunity on the 1m/3m/5m timeframes .....Those that like to scalp or want to learn can using our strategy.
Its very clear to see how to follow price as shown - also our members can test using our strategy tester and hone in on the settings and parameters even further. However, this video is just showing standard settings.
Either follow price or use the labels for SL and TP targets.
Part close at TP2 and leave TP3 until the reverse signal or SL to entry, could work too.
Lots of different ways to manage the position once you are in - even taking 15 pips a time would have worked a treat.
Regards
Darren
Blue FX
Fibonacci and Chart Pattern Trading Descending triangle is in the making. Not confirmed even if we see a rejection at this down sloping trend line. Also just a quick look at the use of the fibonacci retracement tool. We have the extreme high @ 10220 (nice round number 🤔) down to the low of correction @ 8220. A rejection off the 78% fib is common in trading. 78% 38% and the 618 fibs are key in trading and in using fibonacci.
Any likes are much appreciated. Any questions can be left in the comments section. I'll be happy to get back to you. 👍
Forget Bitcoin and watch this textbook TA!Away from the action on BTC and the S&P500, I'm making big profits on hidden gems, like this UK stock. A classic TA inverse head and shoulders setup! Straight out of the dusty textbooks. Strong volume on the left shoulder and weak volume on the right shoulder, just as it should be. I bought just above the breakout line. The breakout is clean, retests to a perfect level and then takes off like a rocket! Beautiful. (and highly profitable).
Reading NEWS Daily would make you a BETTER Trader Overall!Well, there are three types of traders we can come across and all of them believe their method of trading yields them profits, be it using only indicators and price action (Technical analyst) or reacting to news whilst trading (fundamental analyst) or trading according to market sentiment (sentimental Analyst)!
In most circumstances we can only see that some traders lets take for instance technical analysis traders, they only perform their trades based on analysis of the charts by using patterns and indicators!. While there may be few traders who combine Both fundamental and technical analysis to execute their trades, most of them do NOT prefer to do this method particularly as they believe "its take a lot of effort to combine these two techniques which would eventually result in executing less trades when compared to using single method!"
Whereas the above statement holds true, it can also be fairly said that the combination of the three techniques (technical, fundamental and sentimental analysis) gives a trader more confidence and trust in his/her analysis!. Take for example myself, i used to execute around 2 trades daily when i was basing my analysis solely on technical perspective. These days i only execute around 5 trades a MONTH due to i combine all these 3 techniques which gives me more confidence and trust in executing my trades! I also noticed that since my trades are high probability setups, my win rate is way better when i was using on technical analysis alone. These days i hardly do DAY trading as i spend most of the time reading news and chart analysis to find high probability trades on higher time frames (DAILY, WEEKLY & RARELY 4HR). What i have come to realize in all these years is that SWING trading gives me more accurate results and high win percentage. I do NOT expect to double my account in a month's time, but i trade using risk management and just execute enough trades to make what i can without being stress and blowing up my account!
So my advice to all you guys would be to try to combine both fundamental and technical analysis to execute your trades. Here is a big TIP for those that only use technical analysis to execute their trades: TRY TO SPEND 1-2 HOURS A DAY READING NEWS ON APPS SUCH AS INVESTING.COM (BOTH ANALYSIS AND NEWS SECTION), MYFXBOOK NEWS SECTION AND TRADER SENTIMENT SECTION, HAVE A LOOK AT SOMEONES ELSE IDEAS ON TRADINGVIEW.COM If you keep this a habit of reading news and analysis together whilst performing your own too, you will develop a GUT feeling technique that is unique and which will likely tell you where the market is headed prior to you even performing your technical analysis! Its a very special technique but it takes time and habit to develop.
Here we see the main of GOLD (XAUUSD) pair i has a gut feeling would reverse and dip slightly because markets were in RISK ON mood. Now this pair is on its way to form HEAD AND SHOULDERS PAttern which is on the verge of breaking the neckline. Now the pattern is not yet complete because the technically the neckline has not broken, but i have a GUT feeling that it would break soon enough and target the ascending trendline beneath at 1260.000 level.
its a very special technique and i hope some of you could combine them and use it to your greater advantage! Cheers
Wow! What a dogi!! Incoming ... Big Candles!I first published this chart set up via screen shots posted to twitter. Feb 23rd, 2019 See @golftothecore on twitter. This setup was posted just after the last giant narrow dogi with long wicks above and below (red dogi). I added the "slam down zone" on March 8th. Again, check the twitter. This chart set up was a word to the FOMO crowd ... Exercise due diligence and wait for the market to come to you. Make your own f**king coffee, skip Starbucks, and put lottery money in. Stop buying scratch offs and DCA BTC at the bottoms of long red candles ... BTC fell right into my first purple zone. Incoming, Incoming! Giant candle!
This is the first time I am publishing to Tradingview.
Cheers,
Jeffrey Jay Moore
Trading Major Markets using Stops and Margin: Risk/Reward RatiosTrading Major Markets 1 of 2
You've probably already learned a lot through trading Bitcoin.
Those skill-sets are super scalable.
Often am in too much of a hurry to cover other markets to have time to lay out stops and risk reward ratios - hoping that you're experienced enough to work them out for yourself when I miss doing them- which will be quite often in fast markets.
There just isn't time except at weekends to cover things from a newbie's perspective.
This analysis is meant to be for more experienced traders really.
But for newer traders this is one way of trading technical signals. It isn't fool-proof. No system is.
But it works well across multiple markets if used with discipline, and without emotion.
But please don't believe mere words.
If it interests you please test it first.
20 times.
Calibrate your rifle sights/stops as per the pinned message at top of crypto pages and test tolerance levels of stops given.
It will never be perfect though.
We don't have to be either.
Just close enough...
Wave Trading and Wave Counting
Don't really see where Elliott 'waves' figure in the great scheme of things or at the micro level either.
Would like to. But have little evidence usually.
But If Elliott floats your boat and you can trade off it that's great. Please share if so ; )
In the meantime smaller time scale signals are there to be traded. And if we trade them with stops and a system that works more often than not we can make good returns on half and more of the positive trades and yet limit losses on the ones that don't work out as planned.
And by trading smaller moves we become part of and merge into the longer term. It's more fun to ride the smaller waves - they too become part of the bigger wave anyway.
And if we can see a good Elliott wave amongst the noise all the better. If so, share it dude!
Until then, if you can SEE that the stop is very close or ideally that price is right on it (limit down as with FB last week for example) then it's a SPECULATIVE buy with a stop close underneath the level given.
It's 'speculative' because we don't know that this will be the bottom.
In this respect 'breakouts', though still speculative, are less so than buying lows. We all want to do the latter: the buy low sell high mantra didn't make it to market mantra-hood by coincidence.
But lows can be more difficult to spot than breakouts, which no one misses really.
For example with the Dow recently it was around 20 to 50 points of stop if you were buying the dips, (see global markets link at top of main page)
Some will just leave orders in the market with a decent stop - say if looking to buy the Dow within 10 or 15 points of a given level (cannot expect to be bang on every day, you know that already) - they leave the order to strike or not and then use a stop at least 20 lower on Dow and maybe 50 at most. And some stick in a limit order too at the same time as the stop.
Sometimes it works well.
Sometimes it never gets struck.
And sometimes it's a big fail and we get stopped out for 20-50 points on the Dow.
It takles a lot of the emotion out of the equation. Not all of it. But a lot of it.
And if you can work out the RISK in points you can then work out potential rewards too.
Then it becomes possible to divide your total bank into 20 - so 20k total bank for ease of explanation = 20 trades or bets of $1000 each at a maximum - for this is effectively what we are doing... Betting that our call is better than the market's call at that moment in time compared to some future moment in time.
We don't have to be right much more than 50% of the time though we all want to be.
If we can be stoical/philosophical about losses and wins and tread the line without thinking either we're too clever or too stupid we stand a better chance of handling the inevitable losses when they come.
To think you're Billy-whizz of the markets and then discover you're not is way more disheartening than
never thinking that crap in the first place...
Part 2next
Core rules to trade with Sinewave & MomentumHope this educational content will help you make a better use of the indicators.
Remember that these rules are just ground rules. Positions sizes and stops positionning will depend on your own risk profile.
This is up to you to find your comfort zone on these parameters.
Indicators used in this video are : PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
Bullish Consolidation 1-2-3-Breakout PatternThis is a great example of the 1-2-3-Breakout pattern on Bitcoin using the Daily chart.
This pattern can be applied to any equity. Chart patterns represent human behavior and that is a constant among all asset classes.
Point 1 - The First Test - The New High
Price reaches a new high and pulls back when investors take profits.
Price falls.
Point 2 - Second Test
New buyers come in and price tries to attack the highs for a second time. Often this attack fails, because there just aren't as many buyers as before, and people who didn't get a chance to sell at (1) now have a chance, so they sell and run to the bank.
Price falls.
A trend line has now formed between point 1 and 2. This downward trend line basically shows us that price is making lower highs. What we want is to see a higher high, which is an uptrend. Pretty easy right?
Well we can't see a higher high until we break out of the downtrend, meaning, we have to break out of this trend line.
Point 3 - Third Test
People start to watch the trend line as well, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the price starts to get stuck under the trend line.
In general, we know that we have less buyers here than before. So here we ask the question, will we ever breakout of this downtrend? Or will we crash down because the buyers are disappearing
Point 4 - The breakout
Now we have the answer. This is VERY OFTEN the fail or succeed point of a pattern like this. After 1,2 and 3 tests of the downtrend, either buyers will give up and go home, meaning sellers take over and price breaksdown OR new buyers come in from somewhere, or maybe they were just waiting for lower prices to buy. Whatever the reason, they step in and start buying. We breakout of the downtrend line, and that inspires more buyers to come in because they were the ones waiting for the trend line break. And then price starts moving fast because everyone wants to buy. THen the media says "this is a great buy" and boom more people come in.
Until finally....we reach a new high price (1) once again. Investors take profits and the whole cycle repeats itself.
If we IDENTIFY the patterns, and RECOGNIZE the breakout points, then we can be prepared to jump in at a favorable point.