“DRAGON” PATTERN IN TRADINGAs we dive into studying price action, we can't help but be intrigued by the interesting names given to various patterns. Names like "Two Rivers" and "Shooting Star" not only sound captivating but also accurately describe the patterns they represent. In this post, we'll introduce you to another powerful pattern known as the Dragon. This pattern, belonging to the reversal patterns, is not only commonly found in the Forex market but is also highly effective.
💡 HOW THE DRAGON PATTERN IS FORMED?
The pattern has known points, without which the formation is not possible:
HEAD
LEFT FOOT
RIGHT FOOT
HUMP
TAIL
Each of the points, should be placed in the specified place, without distortions and various force majeure.
The Dragon pattern is a reversal pattern in the forex market.
In order to successfully trade the Dragon formation, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the important data associated with it.
📍 Firstly, in a downtrend, you must identify the last local lower high, which will serve as the head of the Dragon pattern. Subsequently, the market will continue to decline and reach a specific level that it cannot surpass, marking the left foot of the formation.
📍 The Dragon's Hump is then formed through a corrective movement from point 1 to point 2. It is essential that this correction does not exceed 38.2% to 50%. Following this correction, the market should attempt to retest the previous lows, ideally failing to do so. This failure indicates a potential shift in momentum, allowing for a buying opportunity.
📍 Drawing a trendline from the head to the hump serves as a signal line. Once this trendline is broken, the Dragon pattern is confirmed, signaling a long position entry.
📍 Setting a Stop Loss below the dragon's feet helps to manage risk, while the first target is set at the level of the hump and the second target at the head. Take Profit levels can be set at these targets to maximize profitability.
Another possible scenario is when the bears successfully bring the market below the initial support level. Personally, I find this detail somewhat undermining to the pattern. In such a situation, it can be interpreted as follows: if the bears succeed in pushing the market to new lows, it indicates that they may not be as weak as they seemed at first, which encourages caution in buying. However, if the price returns above the last local low and creates a false breakout with a bullish divergence, it can be considered a strong signal.
The bullish reversal pattern Dragon has its counterpart in the bearish reversal pattern known as the Inverted Dragon. Just like its bullish counterpart, the Inverted Dragon follows similar patterns and characteristics, so there is no need to describe it separately. As mentioned earlier, these patterns are named for their resemblance to real-life examples, and I have included a chart overlay in the screenshot below for reference.
It is essential to have a strategy and a set of rules when considering any reversal combination in forex market. As many books suggest, patterns often form at the bottom of the market. Although the market bottom may shift quickly, it is important to stay disciplined and adhere to the rules.
The concept of identifying the market bottom involves recognizing key levels where the market has previously rebounded. If a price has bounced off a certain level in the past, there is a higher probability of it happening again in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to look for potential patterns, such as the Dragon pattern, when the price nears a support level (for bullish patterns) or a resistance level (for bearish patterns).
📒 TO AVOID MISIDENTIFYING PATTERNS, IT CAN BE HELPFUL TO FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES:
1️⃣ Start by identifying the current trend movement. In a downtrend, look for a dragon pattern, while in an uptrend, look for an inverted dragon pattern.
2️⃣ Remember that price reversals are more likely to occur at important levels. Without a significant level, there may not be a reversal.
3️⃣ Pay attention to the hump of the dragon pattern, ensuring it does not exceed 38.2% to 50% of the distance from the head to the left foot.
4️⃣ Consider the length of the right foot, which should be 5-10% of the distance from the left foot. Ideally, the right foot should be higher, but it can also be lower.
5️⃣ If there is a trendline breakout, take your time before opening a trade. Assess the potential gain and compare it to the expected loss. If everything checks out, go ahead and take the trade.
📊 USING THE DRAGON PATTERN IN TRADING
As you can see, identifying the pattern is not difficult at all. Remember the key rules:
The hump should be between 38.2% and 50% of the head, indicating left foot movement.
The right leg should be aligned as closely as possible with the left foot.
Most importantly, pay attention to the pattern at significant levels.
The appearance of a pattern does not guarantee that the trend will reverse, but it is considered a strong signal. It is important to make sure that the pattern is formed on a sufficient amount of data. Take into account other factors such as fundamental analysis and the market context.
✅ BOTTOM LINE
The Dragon pattern is widely recognized as a strong indicator of a trend reversal, making it a valuable tool for traders looking to capitalize on market movements. While it can be a helpful guide for entering trades in line with the anticipated trend, it is important to remember that no technical indicator is foolproof and a pragmatic approach is always advised. In addition to the suggested rules, it is essential to incorporate your own money management strategies to ensure profitable implementation of the Dragon pattern. Your feedback and any further perspectives are welcomed. Thank you for your time and input.
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