My trading strategies : Trade against the trapped trader!STRAT 11 : Basic premise
As price continues in a trend, more and more traders keep piling into the same direction, hoping that the trend will continue and they will make money. However, at some point, the trend sharply reverses, breaking the market structure in opposite direction and trapping a whole bunch of retail traders in the direction of trend which just got reversed.
We create a zone which identifies these trapped traders and then patiently wait for them to exit, and trade with limit orders in the direction of their exit.
You can add additional confirmation signals from DXY's directions for the instruments which are highly correlated to DXY (EURUSD, USDCHF, etc)
Trapped-traders
Learning You can see today's rally in bank nifty . Generally what happens if there is a big rally then after achieving the top the index will retrace 20-30 to a maximum of 50 percent. Hence whenever you see green candles at 30 or 50 % levels of fibo retracement you can still go long in direction of the rally. This is the move where many retailers get trapped after selling and the market bounces sharply which you can see here. If it breaches 50 percent then you can say the trend may have changed for downward 300-500 points.
How to draw a trade zone for false breakout / liquidity hunt?Once you spot a location to trade from (be it a liquidity hunt, or a false breakout + market structure break) - that's only half of the job. The next most important step is to draw a correct zone which gives you a safe and reliable way to enter and define your risk.
I've always found that drawing zones which help you define your entry & risk is an art, more so than science. And this doesn't work for me - because if it's not driven by a process, I'm bound to make mistakes in this important step. Hence, I wanted it to be more defined - to the level that it could be given to a programmer who could code it.
Primary method of drawing the zone
1) Find the candle that generated the signal
2) Draw a rectangle into left side of price on the signal candle (green rectangle)
For SHORT signal
=> 3) Draw (yellow) zone using the highest + last UP candle which exited this rectangle
For LONG signal
=> 3) Draw (yellow) zone using the lowest + last DOWN candle which exited this rectangle
4) If the candle right after signal candle does not test this zone, then trade this zone as a signal - ELSE - look for the secondary way of drawing the zone
Secondary method of drawing the zone
1) Find the signal candle and look left of it
For SHORT signal
=> 2) Draw zone using last UP candle which broke an HH pivot
For LONG signal
=> 2) Draw zone using last DOWN candle which broke an LL pivot
3) Discard the zone if price revisited that zone before giving the signal
There are many reasons why these zones work (if your overall trade is correct)
- These will be the candles which are guaranteed to be engulfed by the signal making candle
- If these are institutional trades, most likely it's here where they set the fakeout trap. Hence, when price comes back to these zones, they have no need to take prices beyond your stop loss as there's no more liquidity there
- If these are those amateur folks who were trading the breakout, this is where the smartest of them bought/sold and will be the first in line to exit
If you have feedback on how to improve this zone drawing process, please leave your feedback in the comments below.
Cheers!