USDCAD - 20-30% Cyclical Long Trade? 2 Year PlanUSD fundamentals have become interesting with the Fed taking an increasingly hawkish stance with interest rates, unwinding QE, and speaking highly of US economic growth. The US govt's stimulus plans also likely means US debt will increase through sale of more US treasuries, and holding this debt will become more interesting to market participants as wealth preservation suddenly becomes a thing again with the end of NIRP. Other currencies will likely fail to keep up with a strengthening USD, and non-US central banks may even try to cheapen their currencies to favour their trade surpluses.
In terms of the technicals, since the beginning of 2016, the USD has been consolidating against CAD, forming a large flag consolidation pattern on the weekly. On the monthly we have a rising wedge pattern, but this pattern is likely to play out further before playing out as a reversal. The trend is clearly in favour of the USD bulls with prices currently trading above the EMA50, with the indicator trading comfortably above the EMA200. The cyclical trade is to the upside.
Combined, the fundamental and technical picture points in favour of the USD. The recent US-Canada trade deal also points toward potential weakness for the CAD, as the US has now gained increasing control over Canadian trade and monetary policy (see recent discussions on NAFTA renego and the new terms of the deal).
Monthly snapshot:
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
