Hope but also fear & despairHOPE
I have to start with a little lesson or reminder:
- Parasites: Organisms that live temporarily or permanently in a host, feeding off its host rent free, in its best interest to keep the host healthy or at least alive.
- Bacteria: Entire domain (Bacteria, Archaea, Eukarya - Animals & Plants are Eukarya) that just doesn't care, some of them eat their "host" alive or dead.
- Virus: Undead creatures (technically...) that inject dna in their host to make more of them. They cannot spread on their own. Need living host.
- Prion: Misfolded protein which transmits its shape to other ones in a chain reaction and causes terrifying psychiatric symptoms, death. No diagnosis, no cure.
Let's focus on viruses. Their objective is to multiply. They're quite basic.
Take 2 viruses, which one do you think will spread the most?
A- Host instantly collapses to the ground, bleeds through his eyes, and dies in 3 days.
B- Host is full of energy, never gets any symptoms, speaks to people, laughs, goes into nightclubs weekly.
The second epidemic of SARS-cov-2 which was also called covid-19 had more cases but less deaths.
The UK has a third mutation (third is incorrect as there have been at least thousands of mutations) and this one is far more contagious than the last ones...
If it is more contagious it would not be crazy to expect it to be less severe... FFS it's a virus that's not even alive, not an alien invasion trying to wipe us out.
Most viruses have very low mortality rates. All the very lethal ones come from? From other species! In particular flying critters, and in more particular bats.
HIV is said to come from some monkey, could be flying primates who knows?
These viruses have adapted to their hosts, and when they transmit to humans they come in another form.
Common sense says "don't eat anything that looks like you". Eating humans enough times will result in a guaranteed light speed devastating exponential spread of 100% death rate prion disease. Eating monkeys often ends up badly. I would also avoid bats.
Why do bats develop so many "super viruses"?
This is the answer: Bats fly, and when they do their body heats up (I think it goes up to 40°C which is what a human gets when they have hardcore fever - fever is a body method to get rid of disease by killing it with heat). Since their body heats up it damages their dna so they have a super saiyan immune system.
A virus is fragile. Only the "strongest" ones, in this case severe, will survive, and they'll be just severe enough to live in bats without killing them.
The "weak ones" just go away.
So when this bat virus jumps to humans it's super deadly compared to where it should be at, because humans don't heat up all day long like bats and humans do not have a radioactive immune system. The virus is overtuned for humans.
Then what happens is now the "strong" virus individuals - the most severe ones - are now the "weak" ones, host dies, host does not spread, and the virus dies with it.
The "weak" ones are now the "strong" ones that will spread their genes. The virus evolves until it finds the perfect balance, which is never ending as the environment in general always changes but not as fast as changing species.
Oh by the way, this blows out the "survival of the fittest" theory. The organism that survives is the one most adapted to its environment, and the result can be as we see here a total 180°.
We can expect things to calm down, and no need to get all paranoid and have panic attacks. Anything can happen, but things settling down is very likely.
FEAR & DESPAIR
Haha just kidding we're all going to die. In the past years the world has become completely open. Globalism always existed but not as much as today.
SARS happened about 20 years ago, who knows how bad it would have been if there were no borders like today?
Look at Europe and the rest of the world, they blocked all travel from the UK.
Even Bill Gates was able to predict something like covid-19 (I think we got very lucky here, could have been really terrible), it was obvious it would happen, only a matter of time.
There are extreme diseases all the time, but most of the time they remain local and die off (not during the black death era).
If half the planet is constantly jumping around countries you can be certain some local deadly diseases will jump with them.
Having noble virtuous openness philosophical ideals is cute and all but keep in mind opening up comes with everything: ideas, people, problems, disease.
It's like always putting all your eggs in the same basket, you are very optimistic.
The science cult believes science will save us all. All I've seen until is mass panic and a rushed untested vaccine with coinflip long term effects against a virus that mutated dramatically, no idea if it will work against this new virus.
The vaccine also came long after the epidemic was over and it killed more than 1 million people.
Now imagine a kind hearted virtuous noble open world with a continent wide schengen area in every continent, and ease of movement, migrants can go anywhere they want, illegals are welcome with open arms and actually are not illegals because it's legal to do whatever you want.
Now. Tell me.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN DURING THE NEXT EBOLA/MARBURG VIRUS OUTBREAK?
It's only a matter of time. Maybe the next one won't spread. But EVENTUALLY I can guarantee with absolute certainty there is one that will spread.
And it will be lots of fun. Towns will fall first. Armed civilians and/or tanks will obliterate anyone trying to leave the cities. But this won't stop the spread.
Half the planet will die. Every one will become ultra-racist and murder anyone that looks different. Governments will collapse.
There will be no more order. People will isolate, kill each other for food. Wow such inclusiveness.
Or the next plague could be hantavirus (rats), or something else (with climate change there has been an explosion of wildlife - boars, foxes, deers, goats...)
Or maybe it will be much much worse than even Ebola. We'll all get our food from the same place, and our food will develop some prion disease.
People that eat this food will catch a disease we can not diagnose. The proteins will end up spreading exponentially to fields hence all types of food, they will end up in the water, they will end up everywhere with no sign of illness. And then people will start dying by the millions. Those alive will know deep down they have it. And remember prion causes horrifying psychiatric symptoms yay!
Governments will straight up nuke all large cities in a desperate attempt to save humankind. It sounds crazy but it's very real.
People will get paranoid and shoot anything that moves in a 25 meter circle around them.
But it will be too late anyway. No one will survive. Everyone will die a horrible slow excruciatingly painful death. The end.
If you risk 100% of your money on each trade, no matter how high your winrate YOU WILL BLOW UP this is a promise I make to you.
Same concept with getting all food from the same source, or 1 single worldwide globalist borderless nation.
Virus
LOG Long Term Trendline SupportWe can see the long term support forming a channel with the overhead support from 20k ATH. We can see how a BIG MOVE IS SETTING UP...ON or before AUGUST 27th 2020.
Brian Brooks is having fun making the new crypto dollar everyone is expecting.
Your dollars are just digits on a screen...unless a blockchain application creates a new transparent world.
Imagine knowing exactly how many dollars there are!
Don't worry... Privacy coins still exist... but YOUR AMERICAN EXPRESS CARD tracks you anyways evertime you swipe...lol
Just wait until AMERICAN EXPRESS releases the BITCOIN REWARDS CARD!
welcome to the roaring 20s...
just need to destroy the swamp first...
enjoy.
COVID-19 ATTACK, Fake news and the DJI (Wall Street)I present Tradingview data on COVID-19 infection rates and death rates in the USA - and compare those with the DJI (Wall Street).
Contrary to what we've been told by our leaders and mainstream media, there is no plateauing of infections or deaths in the USA.
NOBODY can say that the virus has peaked. The virus is charging north on exponential curves. Most of it's attack was in April 2020.
This bug is just getting started.
The chart shows the FED's QE infinity approach and how it has been failing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WALL STREET (DJI)- VIRAL WINTER IS UPON US! 😨I issue a stern warning to permabulls who are on DJI! Your time is over.
The chart shows possible further break down of price.
For probably the first time in history markets are suffering supply-demand shock. That means most things that are manufactured will be in short supply and low demand. This is due to:
1. lockdowns of consumers across the whole world,
2. restricted transportation,
3. serious interruption of supply chains,
The economic impact is severe. Travel and leisure industries have been hit hard. Airlines are about to go bankrupt, automobiles sales have been damaged, there is significantly lower demand for energy (oil, gas), medical equipment and supplies for hospitals have been affected. Food supplies are running low.
The COVID-19 is has effected a VIRAL WINTER upon the whole planet. This is analogous to a 'nuclear winter' (without radiation fallout of course).
The world is 'freezing up'. It will take a long time to unfreeze. Economies of many countries are being severely damaged.
The Federal Reserve in the USA and umpteen central banks have coordinated to make monetary and fiscal interventions; throwing trillions of dollars at 'the viral effects'. This will not unfreeze the supply-demand conundrum. It simply cannot. How? Because the problem relies on real people and movement of goods, services and international trade. The USA-China trade deal is basically on hold.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
The trouble in Chinatown!There's not much interest in the Chinese stock index here on Tradingview but the ChinaA50 is absolutely important for what happens around the globe.
The A50 is in big trouble and more trouble is yet to come in weeks to months. This is just bad news for the rest of the world really.
I'll say no more here - follow some of the price action with me on the 4H.
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003).
In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS.
SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days.
8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves.
The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure.
Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China?
If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble!
Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.