Get started

Wave-c

The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XII - 6-4-24 FlagsPart XII I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XI - SPY Flagging ExamplePart XI I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part X - EOD 2 Min ES RecapPart X - End Of Day 2 Min ES Recap I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IX - ES Breakdown To SupportPart IX I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VIII - Learning PatiencePart VIII I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VII - 2 Min ES TrendingPart VII - Applying Success/Failure & Fibonacci Price Theory I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VI - 2 Min ES ChartPart VI I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VPart V - Deploying Success/Failure Techniques I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IVPart IV - Decision Making (A vs B) I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
TVC:DJIEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIIPart III I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIPart I I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IPart I I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The ultimate guide on Elliott waves in crypto tradingMost of you have probably heard about Elliott waves and we are sure that you don’t use it in cryptocurrency trading strategy because it’s very complicated and subjective approach. Crypto trading for beginners is very challenging and stressful even without Elliott waves. To be honest when we first time tried to implement it to my crypto trading strategies it was a complete disappointment. We were sure that it does not suit for both trading bot and manual trades. Elliott waves were thrown into a garbage bin for almost two years and we developed our crypto trading algorithm using only linear programming approaches. While we have been trying to invent the best automated trading bot using only indicators and support and resistance levels, best crypto traders have been successfully using Elliott waves in their analysis. Finally we make a decision to have a deep dive in this popular crypto trading tool and studied in details all available literature. As a result we found that Elliott waves will ruin your trading if you use it without special indicators for confirmation. Now we have 2 years of experience in trading with waves and almost one year ago we implemented them into our algorithmic trading bot. Today we prepared the best ultimate guide ever on Elliott waves using best practices and our unique experience how to use them in developing your own profitable crypto trading strategies. Let’s go! Why it’s vital to use Elliott waves? Before answer this question, let me ask another one! Why is important to use map to reach the final destination? I think here is the obvious answer! Talking about Elliott waves it’s almost the same reason. This is the only one approach which gives you a map for a price chart. I think you agree that technical indicators or support and resistance levels will not give you the answer which direction the price will choose. When you have, for example Stochastic Oscillator crossover or RSI oversold area hit you just open long because this is the most common strategy. You buy asset like a blind kitten. We are not criticize this approach, because using proper risk and money management you will earn with almost every strategy, but understanding the Elliott waves concept will dramatically increase your profit even if you combine them with your ordinary strategy. Why it’s happening? The answer is easy, because Elliott waves in the underlying structure of the market. You will be aware when you shall use your signals and when it’s better to skip trade. Now let’s dive into the Elliott waves to understand how to find them on the price chart. In the first part we will give you all needed theory and after that we will show in the real charts how it works. Elliott waves In general, Elliott waves concept is pretty easy. All markets are globally moving up with the five waves formations and then show the pullback with at the reactive waves. On the Bitcoin price chart above you can see the most common picture for Elliott waves. We had the bull run which consists of five waves and then was the bear market represented with the ABC correction. Waves can be divided into two groups: impulsive and reactive. On the bullish phase waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulsive, 2 and 4 reactive. Impulsive waves consists also with five sub waves, while reactive have usually three waves (exception the triangle correction, will be covered later). On the bearish phase we have the opposite situation: waves A and C are impulsive, while wave B is reactive. Now let’s discuss each wave in details. What will stop every wave in 90% of cases? Before we will observe the wave it’s very important to understand what are the early signs that current wave is about to be finished. This is really crucial concept because without it almost impossible to use Elliott waves for profitable trading. We need four tools to make sure that our counting is correct. In this article we will not spend to much time for these indicators, we just show you in practice how to use them. These tools are: Awesome Oscillator, Market Facilitation Index (MFI), Fibonacci retracement and extension and Fractals. These four indicators produce five wave’s end conditions. Divergence with Awesome Oscillator. If you found five sub waves inside any wave and you can see that price set the higher high (or lower low for bearish case), while AO set lower high (or higher low) it’s divergence between wave 3 and 5. This is the most powerful signal that trend is over. Fractal at the top or bottom. When you see the divergence it’s just the first sign of trend weakness, we need confirmation with the fractal forming at the top or bottom. You can easily find this indicator in TradingView, it will show you all fractals. MFI squat bar. We will cover MFI in one of the next educational articles, now you just need to know that it has squat state - the last battle between bulls and bears. One of the three top bars will be the squat in 80% of waves end. You can also find this indicator in TradingView. AO momentum change. Another one confirmation that trend is over is when AO histogram changes color. It’s better to wait three consecutive columns of the other color or when AO will cross back the signal line, 5 period MA of the AO. Target area. Using Fibonacci extension and retracement we can find the area where the reversal is the most likely. We will show you this targets when talking about waves. Now you know the five basic rules and we are ready to discuss every wave using this concept. Wave 1 When the previous trend is over the impulsive wave 1 begins. We can define the wave 1 start only establishing the previous wave end. It could be wave 5, C or E. It does not matter. You just need to apply our five rules: divergence, momentum change, target area, squat bar and fractal. On the chart you can see how in theory wave 1 can be looks like. Wave 1 always consists of five waves. That’s why we can wait for the same five rules to complete between wave 3 and 5 inside the wave 1. When you anticipate the wave 1 finish you have two options: close trade and re-enter at the wave 2 bottom or hold for the entire cycle. Wave 2 When wave 1 ends, you will see pull back in wave 2. It’s important to catch wave 2 bottom because wave 3 will bring you a lot of profit. Wave 2 can be classical ABC zigzag, flat or irregular correction. 70% probability it will be ended inside 0.38 and 0.62 Fibonacci retracement range of wave 1, in rare cases it can ends higher or lower. That’s why it’s better t count waves inside wave 2 and do not miss when all five trend killing conditions are met in wave C inside 2. Wave 3 The most impulsive wave in the entire cycle is obligatory for trading. Here you can have the less risky and the most easy trading. Wave 3 has the great fundamental factors as a price drivers. For example, Bitcoin spot ETF triggered a huge pump recently. Let’s imagine you correctly entered at the wave 2 end. Now we have to define wave 3 targets. The target area using fibonacci extension can be found between 1 and 1.61. This is the most likely case. In crypto it’s very often when waves 3 are extended. To have the most precise target it’s highly recommended to count waves inside wave 3. Found five waves? Check our favorite trend killing rules to exit a trade at the top. We know it sounds fantastic, but we managed to buy the exact bottom and sell at the top many times, but to be honest, we have never caught the top of the extended wave 3. Need more experience for that. Wave 4 Wave 4 can be the most complicated because it has a lot of different variants: zigzag, flat, irregular or even triangle. But at the same time in wave 4 we can have the easiest setup. When you predicted wave 3 top, it’s time to setup the target for the wave 4. The most reliable one is between 0.38 and 0.5. This wave is not so rapid as wave 2 and takes much more time (up to 70% of all cycle). The very important tip here is to look at the price where wave 4 inside wave 3 has been ended. If this level coincides with the 0.38-0.5 zone it can give you much more confidence. We have never made a mistake using this technique. As usual you have to look for the five trend killing rules in wave C inside wave 4 as well. Another one thing we want to point out. You know the axiom, that wave 4 has not overlap wave 1 top. This rule can be slightly violated and we will show you the case. Don’t pay attention that much to this rule. Wave 5 Finally we are in wave 5. This is really vital to define it’s top because bear market will follow this wave and can destroy your deposits. The target area for the wave 5 is defined as the distance between wave 1 bottom and wave 3 top, measured from wave 4 bottom. Area between 0.61 of this distance and 1 Fibonacci level is our target. There you have to find trend killing rules as usual but this time for all cycle, not subwaves. Corrections The most dangerous place for trading is the correction. From our experience only wave C in zigzag is tradable. You would better to skip corrections and try to catch it’s end. We have four types of corrections, but the most important knowledges is that wave C and E are always consists of five waves. It means you can use the rules how to catch wave 5 end inside these waves. Zigzag ABC. If wave A consists of 5 waves the most like we will see zigzag. Wait when wave B reach 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci of wave A and be ready to trade in wave C. Flat. Wave A has 5 waves inside. Waves A, B and C are almost equal to each other. Irregular. Wave B top is higher that the previous impulsive wave. Wave A consists of 3 waves. Triangle. Consists of A, B, C, D and E waves. Wave E consists of five waves. Usually occurs inside waves 4 and B of higher degree. Now you have a theoretical description. It’s time to trade!
Editors' picks
Education
by Skyrexio
19
Indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategyI published 3 indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. For each indicator, I have added a visual and detailed description in English and Russian. In this post I will briefly describe these indicators and how I use them together. AFDSA indicator (Alligator + Fractals + Divergent & Squat Bars + Signal Alerts) Includes Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals, Divergent Bars, Market Facilitation Index, Highest and Lowest Bars, maximum or minimum peak of the Awesome Oscillator, and signal alerts based on Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy: Bullish and Bearish Divergent Bar Signal + Squat Bar + Green Bar + Fake Bar + Awesome Oscillator Color Change + AO Divergence. Crossing the green line (Lips) of an open Alligator. Formation of a fractal. Signal about the breakdown of the last upper or lower fractal. Signal about the appearance of a new maximum or minimum peak of AO in the interval of 140 bars from the last bar. I also added an Alligator display for the higher timeframe, for example, if the chart timeframe is 1 hour, then the higher timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the higher timeframe will be 1 day, etc. AOE Oscillator (Awesome Oscillator + Bars count lines + EMA Line) Includes the Awesome Oscillator with two vertical lines at a distance of 100 and 140 bars from the last bar to determine the third Elliott wave by the maximum peak of AO in the interval from 100 to 140 bars according to Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. Additionally, a faster EMA line is displayed. I also added display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line if the Moving Average Line values (method, length and source) are equal to the Awesome Oscillator values in the indicator settings. For example, if the chart timeframe is 1 day, then the lower timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the lower timeframe will be 1 hour, etc. VBCHL indicator (Visible bars count on chart + highest/lowest bars, max/min AO) The indicator displays the number of visible bars on the screen, including the prices of the highest and lowest bars, the maximum or minimum value of the Awesome Oscillator. The values change dynamically when scrolling or changing the scale of the chart, but with a delay of several seconds, so this feature is included in a separate indicator so as not to slow down the work of other indicators. Indicator settings In the AFDSA indicator I use the following settings: By default, the Squat Bar is colored blue, and all other bars are colored to match the Awesome Oscillator color, except for the Fake bars, which are colored with a lighter AO color. But I also enable the display of "Green" Divergent bars in the "Green Bars > Show" field. I enable the display of Alligator for higher timeframes in the "Alligator for higher timeframe > Enable" field. In the indicator style settings, I disable the display of the highest and lowest bars, maximum and minimum AO peak labels, because these labels are also displayed by the VBCHL indicator depending on the number of visible bars in the chart window. Only after opening a position, I enable all additional alerts in the “Enable all additional alerts” field (after changing this field, you need to re-create the alert for the current chart): crossing the green line of an open Alligator, formation of a fractal, appearance of a new maximum or minimum AO peak. In the settings of the AOE oscillator, I enable the display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line, setting the same values in the fields for the Moving Average Line (method, length and source) and Awesome Oscillator. In the VBCHL indicator settings, I only enable the simple display text style for labels in the "Simple display text style for labels" field. As a result, when analyzing the current chart, I immediately see all the signals on the chart, the location of the bars relative to the Alligator on the higher timeframe and changes in the Awesome Oscillator on the lower timeframe. And thanks to the VBCHL indicator, I quickly select the desired timeframe for analyzing the 5-wave Elliott impulse, focusing on the interval of 140 bars, and immediately see whether there is divergence between the maximum AO peak and the following lower AO peak in this interval.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by grigorykov
2
📍Part #2, Elliott Waves: "Motive Waves - Impulse".👩🏻‍💻 Welcome to the 2nd lecture on Elliott Waves. So, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that price behavior follows a wave structure, with three waves being impulse waves and 2 being corrective waves. It can be said that these 5 waves look like the image above. ➡️For example, let's take an upward impulse, where the impulse refers to all these five waves. We observe the first wave of growth, then the second wave is corrective to the first, meaning the second wave is specifically a correction for the first wave. Next, the third wave is a growth wave, the fourth is corrective for the third, and the fifth wave concludes the impulse. Following the completion of the impulse or the five-wave sequence, a correction occurs in the form of A, B, C. ➡️This entire structure is fractal, meaning that if our upward impulse has three waves, and they are also impulse waves, such as the first, third, and fifth, and as impulse waves, as we already know, consist of five waves, then each impulse within this larger five-wave sequence has the same structure of five waves. Furthermore, in the correction A, B, C, waves A and C also have a five-wave structure, but more on that in the next lessons. ➡️If you ask about the timeframes to work with waves, I would say that the 1-hour timeframe is the threshold below which it is not recommended to consider the structure! Next, I will describe the basic rules and regulations concerning impulses in the form of pictures, which are convenient to save and use as a hint when analyzing charts. ➡️Now let's consider some rules that are mandatory for all impulse movements. Rules An impulse always subdivides into five waves. Strong guidelines 📍Wave A almost always will alternate with wave B. Alternation can be expressed in two ways: 1) In the type of correction: sharp/sideways or vice versa 2) In the presence of extension: in waves 2 and 4 of the impulse, two sideways patterns are possible, but only one of them will have an extreme beyond the peak of the previous wave. 📍Wave 4, as a rule, significantly violates the channel formed by the subwaves of wave 3. 📍As a strong norm, no part of wave 4 should enter the price territory of wave 1 or 2. 📍As a strong norm, the peak of wave 4 should not extend beyond the doubled channel constructed from the peaks of waves 1, 2, and 3, while the midline of the channel will serve as the minimum achievable target. 📍Second waves of impulses tend to go beyond the previous fourth wave. When using this norm, the previous fourth wave serves as the minimum target. 📍Sometimes wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3 (in which case it is called a truncation). 📍Often, waves 1 and 5 of the impulse form impulses, but more often they alternate in the type of motive waves: if wave 1 is an impulse, expect wave 5 in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. Less commonly, waves 1 and 5 form diagonals, but in this case, alternation will be expressed in the form of a pattern: contracting/expanding. So there are also many other lesser indications, but they are too numerous and less frequent. Therefore, I recommend that we focus on the main ones for the time being. 📣This concludes the lecture on impulse waves. Save the images and practice. Next week I'll start talking about the Leading and Ending diagonals. 🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
11
Bitcoin - Probabilistic MapSince traders are literally made of particles, it's vital to know the principles of their behavior in micro scale. Some people even use planetary cycles to implement into charting. But I believe the answer is deep in quantum world of probabilities - the fabric of reality itself. Reference to Quantum Mechanics The universe itself prohibits 100% prediction accuracy. This is called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's the fundamental building blocks of Quantum Mechanics. In order to predict particles behavior, all you need are just 2 quantities/data/features: 1) Position of the particle 2) Momentum of the particles. If you know it's position and it's momentum, you can easily predict it's trajectory. So if you have position and momentum data of all particles in the universe, and you have unlimited computational power, you can predict their behavior (interaction, movement, etc.), and basically predict the future (stock market, weather, natural disaster, etc). However, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that it is impossible to collect information of particles's position and momentum with 100% certainty. The more certain you know about particle's position, the less certain it's momentum" and vice versa. So if somehow with the unlimited computational power you can predict particle's position at time with 100% accuracy, then your prediction error for its velocity will be infinity, which prevent you for making accurate further predictions, rendering your model useless. Hence, it's theoretically impossible to make 100% accurate prediction even with unlimited data and unlimited computational power. So Is The Universe deterministic or probabilistic? 100% prediction accuracy also means the universe is deterministic - there's only one possible outcome of the future. Einstein was on this side, citing "God doesn't play with dice". On the other hand, folks like Heisenberg, Max Born, Schrodinger, Oppenheimer, etc.., the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics, viewed the future as set of possible outcomes each having it's own probability. Since market couldn't care less about anyone's subjective forecasts, I do predictions solely based on historic price dynamics in macro scale to stay objective and true with the market pulse rather than be bared with my endless interpretations of patterns. I don't need my consciousness to interpret because we already have a data derived from collective consciousnesses to work with. Chart is already a reflection of reality that captures the emotions of participants. In other words, it's a time fractal that exposes the essence of the market across timeframes. In turn the market itself is a function of trading time . These basis justify linking systematic fragments of cycles to work out the capacity of price action. Basically in Fractal Analysis, the question is how can direct metrics of the historic waves geometrically explain current and future price levels. The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical concept that appears in various aspects of nature. This connection between mathematics and the natural world is a fascinating example of how patterns and structures found in abstract concepts like numbers can manifest in physical reality . Particularly, using Golden Ratio as a key rule that governs order in chaos. In TradingView, the "Fibonacci Channels" is a great tool to capture the waves (domestic certainty) and turn them into a probabilistic interconnected structure that captures the uncertainty of the market - the entanglement of price action. To start with it's vital to use log scale where percentages are equally captured in distances. So a 100% a growth, say a vertical distance from $40 to $80 measures the same distance as from $1000 to $2000. Besides, percentages are what drives people to feel emotions which affect market behavior (collective executions). Finding geometric relationship between waves, the use of log scale is a must. As I've done this before I want to show how market deviates near fibs. A Direction of 2013 HIGH ⇨ 2017 HIGH with bottom of 2011 gives next bottom 2015 at 0.618 after -86% drop. And also predicts the COVID bottom in 2019 after -72% drop as well as current level where price has cooled down locally. We can note that previous ATHs are explained with logarithmic curve. That's why we'd need another fib channel to connect 2017 HIGH ⇨ 2021 HIGH direction with previous bottom of -86% drop in 2015. FC of that direction predicts bottoms of 2018 (-84%) and covid 2019 (-72%) at 0.618 again. Together they produce an interference pattern covers significant historic price changes. To further interpret current levels though the chart itself, we can use line with angle of direction connecting 2021 double tops: This shows the capacity of how high the market might still grow before next significant correction, if the local fib to the price hasn't yet dimmed the bullish incentive. Another straight line can be used to connect 2019 COVID LOW (-72%) with 2022 LOW, because we might probably never see such price levels in the nearest future as price has broken out with high rate of change. Now it needs more time and bearish capacity to go there. This line can indicate the bottom of hypothetical correction, if it happens now. Other than that it's a clear trendline with almost 4Y wavelength. Since straight lines doesn't exist in nature, I didn't extend them to the right. Now we need a more adaptive version of it to connect recent local bottoms of the trend. That would be a logarithmic trendline, in other words curves to mimic the function of exponential growth. Therefore falling below it, might indicate a possibility of correction and even reversal. Each day if it fails to grow with the curve, the bears will get depleted. A cross below the logarithmic curve of spreading information would be a confirmation of new bearish incentive. This is simply done to work out boundaries as limits of the function that explains the market. Corrective wave has a timing of 15 days in respect to its domestic volatility properties, before it becomes bearish impulsive or continues the impulsive bullish wave. Curves as a function of trading time explain pretty much all historic bullrun growths. As if there is some kind of gravity that governs the trend or it's the PriceTime that curves with the emerging trend. Individual cycles can be too curved accordingly. So the more the price fails to break out that function, the more predictive curve becomes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
3
Wave Auction Theory & WHY it worksSup, this is the 30th & the last post that concludes all the previous ones, and finally reveals the name how I've called all this - wave auction theory. Well, me as a creator of all this (or more like a mixer, a DJ lol) I think about it more as a theorem, but that's for nerds and geeks to work it out, me I just wanna flexx. If you take a look at all existing market theories their main thing is they all attempt to divide market activity into parts. Patterns, El waves, Wyckoff market states, then what Steidlmayer created (I call it Interval Auction Theory, since he divided market activity in parts by days, weeks, months etc). The main problem with is all these concepts (maybe except the last one) dem are not well defined, and they apply on the fractal market something that the highest resolution of this fractal (raw tick chart) doesn't have. Wave auction theory ain't superimposing any exogenous structures on the market, such as "crowd behaviors", nah, it doesn't guess and predicts anything, it derives the principles and structures from the sequences of fundamental particles of the market - ticks, and it can be used fully on this fundamental resolution. This is the most fundamental principle how you can divide market activity without any subjectivity: waves and levels. Btw, indirectly, we also gain the interval size information by choosing the right resolutions, while interval auction theory disregards sequence of events (read my post about market & volume profiles). Why it all works It's a lil bit recursive kind of thing, you need to read all the statements below multiple times in different order, then your brain will start making the whole picture out of it, and finally things will come together, you'll feel that "snap" in your head. It's the best I can do. * Market is fractal => all the principles propagate through all the resolutions; * Market is a feedback loop, market is ALL of us together, that famous "composite operator" that Wyckoff tried to explain to people around him, that composite operator is All of us - the collective; * Each individual entity in the collective has different voting power = better you operate = better the market = more revenues & capital you have = more voting power you have; * We all have all the same data => we can gain as much information as there is in the data; * Data on every resolution has information where it is, it was, or it will be cheap or expensive, every1 gains it with different degree of precision, but essentially every1 gains the same info because it's the same market & same data; * The only thing that works all the time in all the cases is being an operator (a market maker) aka you buy cheap and sell expensive; * Market making happens on all the resolutions, be it 1 minute or 1 week chart, on the former it might be one dude with 100 shares, on 1W it might be 100k dudes with 100 shares, the collective is always there, even on yearly charts; * More data & information you have, the more question of "what's going to happen in the future" transforms into the question of "what IS happening NOW"; * market works on the principle I call "GTC Naive" (good till cancel Naive forecast), meaning that "the stuff's gonna continue the same way UNTIL there's an event/evidence that'll change it"; We all make the future, how can we not know what we're making ourselves if we have the info and exogenous factors are not numerous and secondary at best, and the system itself is quazi-closed? Still gonna try to analyze log returns? xD Everything is already decided, we've decided all of that ourselves having the same data & same info xdddd All the prophecies are self fulfilling prophecies by definition lmao, they are consequences of sequences of choices made by every1 through all the timeline. While loosing precision we gain generality => are able to understand what IS happening NOW. Not even contra intuitive aye? The good side point of all this is that now you can rewatch Matrix movies (all of dem) and finally understand the dialogs between Neo and The Oracle (the parts her telling him the choice is already made). Coming back to the theme, I share all this because I think that markets are sadly unhealthy, there's ENORMOUS room for liquidity provision for centuries to come on Ks of assets. Better we gonna operate, more clients = more volume will come to the markets => better for all of us. The last several things I wanna share: 1) You can approach designing an automated agent (a bot) by following principle, smth I call "sMATEs framework"; - s: selection of assets that will end up in your masterlist; - M: management - choosing between the most potent timeframes & assets within the assets in masterlist; - A: analytics, seeing what's happening on your chosen data, choosing the signal generation method aka strategy accordingly; - T: trading, generation the actual signals based on the strategy chosen before; - E: execution, processing & fine tuning the actual executions based on the signals; -s: sizing: choosing the quantities based on equity control and what the market can give. The two small Ss are the only levels where you need to use ML. Reinforced learning for sizing based on order book & equity chart of a given agent. Then you can use ML & AI to form the masterlist, based on what you want. Generally you're interested in action or as I say in MEAT (ain't no vegan bruh sorry). 2) Each market has its own main cycle set: set of properly chosen optimal resolutions & time frames & rolling window lengths (no, there's nothing to optimize there & no need in dynamic lengths). I think you can figure it out reading all the posts & studies I've posted lately. I can give a hint: if you want to divide smth, you always try to divide it by 5 first. If you can't by 5, then by 4. If you can't by 4, then by 6. If you can't by 6, then by 3. If you even can't by 3, then by 7. And omg if you can't by 7, then in theory it's by 2, but not on our planet with our modern time system. Look at the 2 centuries of S&P chart in this post and see what I see. 3) If you a coward, or an overconfident prick, or a cheater, or a lier, or a snitch, you wont't succeed. You'll succeed if you're real & legit, in this case it's only a matter of time. From there it seems like my path goes somewhere else, but this is the way, all good TV, was fun. Remember, there's no noise, only the truth
SP:SPXEducation
by gorx1
1
Wave exhaustionThe main purpose of analyzing waves is to understand when the current wave is exhausted aka overextended aka overbought aka oversold. What is every1 seem to miss is that exhaustion is not based exclusively on "price gone too far", but also on "too much time passed" and "not much volume was traded" as well. That's one of the main reasons why your comparative analysis, divergences on so called "indicators" do not work properly. It simply can't. These methods do not gain time & volume information from the data. When you analyze order flow on any resolution, be it 1 minute, 5 years or tick chart, you're interested in 2 waves: current wave and *the very last (previous) wave in the same direction . * including the imaginary waves Don't forget to turn in log scale when it's needed! You compare these 2 as the current wave develops and keep updating the answer to the binary question, "which of these two waves is weaker". Strength of a wave = it's ability to continue. Every wave starts strong and goes weaker and weaker, the factors are: 1) Time. Horizontal size of a wave (in bars), more time (more bars) - weaker ; 2) Range. Vertical size of a wave, higher range - weake r; 3) Volume, or inferred volume. You sum up all the volume within a wave, or sum up all the bar sizes within a wave. Less volume - weaker .* * in order not to sum up anything within a wave yourself, here you can turn in volume/range bars and simply count em. And from that moment it's like "Best of 3" comparison. 1) Time. Wave A 10 bars, wave B 5 bars. Wave B is stronger; 2) Range. Wave A 546 points, wave B 890 points. Wave A is stronger; 3) Volume. Wave A 10k, wave wave B 8k. Wave A is stronger; So at that point, wave A was stronger = wave B was weaker. This will be giving you a binary answer which wave is weaker. When the current wave becomes weaker than the last wave in the same direction, current wave is considered exhausted. P.S.: wave start in time (first bar of the wave) is the level origin itself or the first bar that touched a level if we talked about a new wave starting from an already positioned level, or about a wave started after clearing a positioned level. The more you'll think about the more it'll make sense. An example. Remember seeing fast price jumps? After some, the price reverses very fast and goes back, after others prices continues in the direction of the jump. In most of the cases the current wave (the jump) gets exhausted in terms of price, but not exhausted in terms of time (the jump was very fast). So in terrms of time and price both waves are 50/50. What is different is volume. If the current wave (the jump) had a huge volume, overall it's still not exhausted, hence it continues. Sounds familiar? Sounds logical? Just the last simple and obvious thing, in most cases you won't need to calculate sum volumes/ranges, usually at the moment of analysis the current wave is already longer and higher than the previous one in the same direction, hence the current wave is already exhausted. Yessir
SP:SPXEducation
by gorx1
1
Imaginary wavesAgain as with the levels, first ima tell how to locate both real & imaginary waves, then I'll explain the principle itself, what are they, why it works etc, why we need em & how to use em. It's really easier this way. Let's start with imaginary waves. First, pls read the linked "Imaginary levels: fair price aka value", it has an explanation and another common example & about the imaginary levels. As with imaginary levels, imaginary waves are, well, imagined xd, when there's nothing else, but a decision has to be made. Look at the chart as if you're in 2k13 (when ASAP dropped Trap Lord) as in the previous example in the linked study, we have an overridden wave 520-1923.7, we have an imagined fair price level somewhere around 1200. When we have an overridden wave -> we have the imaginary fair price level somewhere ~ in the middle of this wave -> that fair price level divides the real wave into 2 imaginary waves. As with imaginary levels, imaginary waves can be used for further processing.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by gorx1
BITCOIN IS THIS BOTTOM OR JUST STARTING At the outset, I would like to inform you that I have been a big fan of the wave theory in the last five years, but in science there are no feelings and biases, as well as in markets, and also the theory has not reached the limit of idealism and some critics say that it did not reach the limits of theory, it is only a hypothesis and It has been going on for such a long time because of its many possibilities. anyway , this discussion will be as simple as possible and easy for the public to understand, even non-specialists, and from them I will present some scenarios that I see as possible to happen on the Bitcoin chart. # The first scenario: Have we finished the FLAT and are heading to ATH ???!!!! I wish if the answer to this question was clear and certain , this perception takes the third place out of four, and the reason for this is the downward wave from the top of 69 to the current levels not clear five wave . Well, according to this scenario, the end of the correction is expected at the 23k, from which we start a new bull market (remember this scenario takes the third place among the possibilities) The second scenario: It is a rare but possible pattern, like what happened in the Dow Jones Index in 1966, which is the expanding triangle In the wave principle, there are four triangular patterns(Without counting the irregular top) , and the below chart shows the expanding pattern, and it may develop and change into a second type of the family of triangles. One must be careful that the triangle is one of the most difficult patterns to anticipate early, and its volatility is very high. There may be some intellectual fanaticism on the part of some wave analyzers regarding the internal structure of waves. they assert that they be from the zigzag family, and this condition is not true The third and fourth scenarios: They are the most important and most likely, which is that the wave from 69 to the current price is the first corrective wave of the model and it is formed with a 3 waves structure that is very satisfactory to the rules and guidelines, anyway, the main reason for my preference for this scenario is to study time cycles (note that time cycles are more scientific and have been worked on a lot), so since we are in the A wave of the structure and this wave was 3 waves , so the possibilities will be limited to that the pattern It evolves and takes a flat or develops and takes a triangular shape and the balance tends to the triangular model due to the economic and global conditions I know that this perception of the next movement is boring and takes the sideway character (and sorry, but your Lamborghini will be delayed this time ) and the correction may end in the first quarter of 2024, but remember the markets are not devoid of opportunities Well, what do we gain after all this talk showing charts ?? It is very simple and here lies the strength of the wave theory, so that all the mentioned scenarios agree in the upcoming movement, which is the rise to the levels of 48-50 thousand. This wave at least gives twice the profit without using the leverage, and what do you expect to happen to the rest of the alt coins in this rally : ) I wanted to post some mysterious Fibonacci sequences for Fibonacci fans but it might take a lot of time Anyway, a little advice from me Life is more beautiful than the trading markets, do not be addicted to the price movement and lose the most valuable thing you have (your time) I wish luck to everyone My greetings
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DARKMEX
8
Elliott Wave Theory - Motive WavesElliott Wave Theory , developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, proposes that the seemingly chaotic behaviour of the different financial markets isn’t actually chaotic. In fact the markets moves in predictable, repetitive cycles or waves and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers. The very basics of Elliott Wave Theory ; The Elliott wave principle at its core consists of motive waves, movement in the direction of the larger trend, and corrective waves, any correction against the main trend. Market prices alternate between a motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend. Wave analysis offers insights into trend dynamics and helps you understand price movements in a much deeper way and offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for trading opportunities Motive Waves Motive waves in general can be categorized as Impulse and Diagonal waves a- Impulse Waves Impulse waves consist of five sub-waves in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. Elliott proposed that financial price trends, the waves, are created by investor psychology or sentiment and the waves can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers . In adition to using fibonacci retracments and extetion to forcast probable targets, channeling technique is also presented, where channeling technique is used to forecast wave formations and targets using price action . Disclaimer: besides the rules, the below presented figures displays guidelines that elliott waves may form. Guidelines are tendencies, not set in stone rules b- Diagonal Waves (Wedges) Another form of motive waves are diagonals, they appear in the beginning of a larger trend, called leading diagonal and at the end of the larger trend, called ending diagonal They are five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend within which wave 4 almost always moves into the price territory of (overlaps) wave 1, breaking the rule of impulse motive wave Diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines Elliott was careful to note that these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action. They can be used in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis, including technical indicators, to identify specific opportunities. Technical Indicators Using various technical indicators among elliott wave practitioners is not so common, except few, probably the common one used is a kind of momentum indicator, such as RSI or MACD , to detect divergencies Fibonacci retracement and extension drawing tools are essential for elliott wave practitioners. In todays computerized era many of the darawing tool's auto indicator versions are availabe on the trading platforms, such as Auto Fib ( where and how tp apply ) Elliott Wave Oscillator ( EWO ) , is inspired by the Elliott Wave principle and helps counting the waves Volume and Volume Profile ( Vol / Vol Profile ) combined with price action is esential in technical anlaysis and for elliott wave practitioners helps to identify impulse and correction phases Other indicators that are referred among elliott wave practitioners Pitchforks ( how to apply ), Pitchfans , FibFans ( how to apply ), FibChannels ( how to apply ), FibTime , LinReg Channel ( what it is ), Raff Regression Channel ( what it is ), etc
Education
by dgtrd
37
Analysis way - Buyers Vs Sellers ShiftsAnalyzing buyers vs sellers . Very simple way of analyzing and trading supply demand in its purest form. Identify where buyers has stepped in and showed interest in price and where is potential that they can step in again. Identify where sellerss has stepped in and showed interest in price and where is potential that they can step in again. Drop timeframe lower and - 1. see that for example Buyers are defending that level. and there is interest of buying. 2. identify shift of buyers vs sellers. see that the buyers have won battle against the sellers. Price target: In uptrend price keeps breaking highs consistently. Once this stops and market keeps breaking lows trend changes. This highs and lows act as price target that If trend would continue price should hit and break higher. Shifts: Shift where buyers won the battle against sellers and via versa.
Education
by JansIdeas