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WKHS

Story of Bubbles! George Soros: Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception. I started my article with George Soros's quote and will continue with his great wisdom about bubbles! I think he was the one who benefitted from stock market bubbles the most! and this happened because of his approach to identifying and trading these bubbles! George Soros: “When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire,” Most people rushed into buying RIVN or LCID because they think this could be the next Tesla, and they did not want to miss this opportunity! This story is very similar to Workhorse's story in the past 3 years! I published 14 articles about workhorse between September 8th, 2020, and May 6th, 2021. 7 Bullish articles when the price was between 19.78-28.5, and target price of 40-42! WKHS reached 42.96 and closed at 41.32 on Feb 4th, 2021, priced made a top formation, and on Feb 11, 2021, I published a Short analysis when the price was 37.21. My first target price for WKHS short was 20-21 and then modified it to 10-11 and after that 5-4 in my last analysis! WHKS reached 4.92 and closed at 5.01 after 6 months! I wrote about this practical example because I want to mention: 1- The Bubble story repeats based on the same or different misconception that seems real! 2- The price Pattern moves Exponentially in both directions, either the inflation phase or the deflation phase! 3-Less experienced investors think prices will always be back at the previous highs or lows, which is not the case in many cases! 4- If you can not distinguish the different phases of a bubble, you will lose a big percentage of your trading capital! 5- Average Volume Price is the best tool to monitor speculative bubbles. 6- I strongly recommend reading about Reflexivity What Is Reflexivity? Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception. Conclusion: Please review Lucid and Rivian plans for the future! The Lucid goal is to manufacture 400K cars each year! BUT Casa Grande, AZ, is operational with a production capacity to deliver up to 34,000 vehicles per year. Rivian: The company says its factory in Illinois has the capacity to produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. About 65,000 of those should be R1T pickup trucks and SUVs, and about 85,000 should be the company's RCV commercial delivery vans, Rivian said in financial filings. Delivery so far 154 ..! If you are looking at these numbers, you easily understand that they even don't have any plan to be the next Tesla..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. Reference articles: www.investopedia.com
NASDAQ:RIVNEducation
by Moshkelgosha
9
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading. Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same. They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side! I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share! I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me! RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share! I experienced the same situation over and over again: NASDAQ:WKHS NASDAQ:TLRY NYSE:SPCE Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more: Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as: 1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing, 2-The phase transition turning point, and 3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions. I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well: Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge." We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. The Dunning-Kruger effect The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities. A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert. Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do. Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Keep learning and practicing Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper. Ask other people how you're doing Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism. Question what you know Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias. Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again. Conclusion: you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience. Best, Moshkelgosha Reference Articles: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov psycnet.apa.org www.britannica.com www.verywellmind.com www.psychologytoday.com
NYSE:SPCEEducation
by Moshkelgosha
4
Owners Bias#Education Owner Bias: when you own something you always think it’s value will increase in the future. To prevent this always do your analysis before entering any trade! When you enter the trade, do not looking for evidence to confirm the decision you made! It is useless and waste of time! You have to look for evidence that contradicts your previous decisions to save your capital and profits! Previously I wrote”Don’t love your stocks because they don’t fall in love with you”. Having said that,It will prevent the consequences of feeling worthless when your love (stock, option, commodities)betray you! If you do not have NEUTRAL MINDSET, you will experience all these stages after any loss you make in the market. The five stages of grief are: * denial. * anger. * bargaining. * depression. * acceptance Last week when for the first time the portfolio ended with loss I feel so bad, but when I look at the evidence, I noticed I finished 5/6 in positive (83.5%), so I’m able to find a way in this big market for the next week! Copping with your loss makes you stronger..! Believe me!
CEducation
by Moshkelgosha
12
The importance of exit strategy..,I published 9 analysis on workhorse so far,let’s review them once again 1st- September 8, 2020, Long: price 21.92( target price 36) 2nd- Oct 23, 2020, Long: price 20.30 3rd- Nov 9, 2020, Long: Price: 19.78 4th- Dec22, 2020, Long:price 23.22 5th- Jan 6,2021, Long: price 23.74 ( target price 40-42 short-mid term) 6th- Jan 15,2021, Long: price 23.47 7th- Jan 26, 2021, Long: price 28.55 My exit plan activated 8th- Jan 31,2021, Short: price 34.27 9th- Feb 11, 2021, Short: price 37.21 Please check the people comments below the last 2 posts, there are lots of lessons to learn. As an analyst I believe I should try my best to give you a clear picture to help you decide better, my obligation is not too write in one direction, but to cover the both sides based on evidences! At the end, workhorse experienced a fantastic +11500% gain rally in 2 years.But don’t forget in previous correction in the past 2 years, it showed it could easily go down 50-70%..! At this point I believe my analysis of 70-110 target price has no chance to become a reality in near future! Moshkelgosha
NASDAQ:WKHSEducation
by Moshkelgosha
6