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Wyckoffaccumulation

Bitcoin's engineered liquidity and removal of weak handsGood morning, traders. Hope y'all stayed safe during the move yesterday. There's a lot going on in this chart, but I wanted everyone to be aware of how we are watching price action play out. As I discussed in yesterday's chart, and then expounded upon during the morning's live stream, there would be an attempt to push through the descending resistance line toward the horizontal channel's high but if that failed (if there wasn't any real follow through on the retail traders' side after C.O. started pushing price) then we would see C.O. put in a large sell order and remove their support to put a spring into action. This would test the available supply. A drop down on low volume would suggest that the market is ready to move up. However, a drop down on high volume would suggest the need for more accumulation. We saw relatively high volume on that drop, so the expectation is to see more accumulation before another move up now and that's what appears to be happening at this time on a much smaller scale. Price's current position lines up with the bottom of the ascending yellow channel. If this holds and price continues higher, then we can expect a conservative target of the upper grey box at around $8900, though we could potentially see price reaching the top of the channel a few hundred dollars higher. As always, price does not have to remain within the channel. A strong bullish push often sees an extension beyond the top of the channel. We can see price has printed a descending channel as denoted by the green lines with a descending broadening wedge inside of it denoted by the dashed red lines, and is being supported at the bottom of the previously drawn orange box within our grey box. This is creating a potential Swing Failure Point (similar to the Wyckoff Spring) within the smaller descending broadening wedge denoted by the black lines. A successful SFP will see price closing above that swing low (which it has done twice now). This should see price then pushing upward once it pushes through the top of the orange box. The red box (order block) above price is resistance, but a successful breach of the top of that box should see price rising back toward $8300. The only caveat is the mitigation block in green. Failure of price to breach the top of this block will see it dropping toward the next block at $7400/$7500. HTF is bullish, so the expectation is for price to continue higher rather than lower right now. But even if we see that drop toward the next block below, the expectation remains that we will head higher as it is another strong area and each of these blocks are full of long orders that didn't get filled the last time around just waiting to go long, so they are sucking up all of the orders that drop into them. Our final block becomes the $6800 area. Ultimately, failure of that area to hold is not good news for the bulls and we should expect to see price fall further at that point. In terms of accumulation, the recent large white candle could be seen as a spring. That means we could see price potentially drop back down toward the dashed line around $7850/60 to test the spring's result before getting serious about moving upward. That successful test of the spring should then see price pushing up toward that red box at the top of the accumulation zone. This would potentially create an IHS which is a good indicator of completed accumulation especially as all this is happening in a support zone. The target on that IHS would be the top of the green mitigation box. At that point, a successful push through it indicates that demand is outpacing supply and price will rise higher. RSI looks great on most times frames as it is near/at oversold and printing potential bullish divergence.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
8
Consolidation before expansion -- Bitcoin's path to $9600.Good morning, traders. Alts continue to push upward while Bitcoin moves sideways. A preview of things to come? Most likely. While a true alt season won't begin until Bitcoin finishes a true bull run, we should see good days for alts along the way at these points where we find Bitcoin consolidating/moving sideways. I realize there are people out there calling for further movement down before the start of the next wave, however as I outlined last night, price appears to be in reaccumulation (hence the sideways movement). This reaccumulation has created a pennant and price is currently nearing its apex. Price appears to have completed the ABCD portion with only the E remaining. As such, it does appear that we are in subwave 4 and will see subwave 5 target the $9550/$9600 area based on the size of the flagpole leading to the pennant which is subwave 4. This 3.618 extension of this movement from the June low is at $9612.90, and the 61.8 extension of the movement from the February high to the June low sits at $9483.40. If price remains within the ascending channel, then we should expect to hit that subwave 5 target around July 29th (potentially late in the night on July 28th). This will complete Wave 1 of the larger degree and take price above the daily cloud. This latter event will be the first time that price has moved above the daily cloud with the double Ichimoku settings since mid-January. While I don't expect a spring at the moment, there is always the possibility we could see one that drops price through the bottom of the pennant toward $8000 and then reverses in order to shakeout the remaining weak hands at this point and suck up that excess supply of the asset so that price can complete its trek upward. There are never any guarantees concerning price movement, however, so traders should never be lazy with their risk management. The ONLY thing you control in the market is how much you lose.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
6
With a bang, Bitcoin surges toward $8400 as we said it would!Well good morning, traders. I hope you've been keeping up with me via Tradingview and our twice daily live streams. I don't normally make a lot of noise when I'm right, but I am going to take a moment here and say a few things. Many traders laughed when I said last night was not only possible, but becoming quite likely. I did a live stream not too long ago discussing the possibility that price was headed toward last night's high before correcting, rather than the opposite. The talking heads (those with the largest followings on social media) were saying that price must go down and reset at $6800 before heading higher. While I felt that way at first, as well, it became more apparent that price was headed up into the low-to-mid-$8500s. Permabears were saying that we were going to fail breaching the resistance line just like every time before. During last night's live stream I discussed the likelihood that we had been in reaccumulation and that we were most likely headed up and out but that it hinged on price's ability to breach the $7950 level. I have been saying that once through that area we were likely going to see FOMO kick in as shorts covered and went long. Now that we've done exactly that we have broken through the supply zone, the descending wedge's resistance line, and are well into the daily cloud. We also hit the target from the 12H pennant that had formed and it could be argued that we completed the larger IHS with a small right shoulder (volume expanded as did the price spread upon completion and breach of the neckline). This IHS pattern has price targeting $9620. Bitcoin dominance continues to grow and is currently hovering around 47% while total cryptocurrency marketcap has just reached $300 billion. At this point, we are seeing bearish divergence potentially forming on multiple time frames which suggests we may be at, or very near, the top of this run. We are looking for a retracement now, but how far? A first thought would be the $7500 area, however I don't think that is very likely. It seems much more likely that price will only reach the $7800/$7900 level at the most which is right under the R1 pivot on the 4H TF. This was the previous supply zone which should be demand now. Experienced traders should be sitting there, right now, waiting for the retracement toward that zone in order to go long on the bounce. As I continued to mention in the weeks leading up to this price movement, that was a very significant area and, as such, should provide the same significance for support. It also provides confluence with the descending resistance line which should now be tested as support. Furthermore, it is the sweet spot within the daily cloud to see a bounce and ensuing breach of that cloud. Remember, price has not sat above the daily cloud (crypto settings, not default) since mid-January, so doing so should be very bullish. However, traders need to reign in their euphoria because we can still falter and head down. Traders should not feel overly confident until the February high around $11,800 is breached. Even then it is still possible for price to fall, but it just becomes much less likely at that point. Emotion, whether euphoric or depressive, will cause traders to lose money in the market. Risk management continues to be the name of the game.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
15
Can Bitcoin really target $8400/$8500+ from here?Good Friday morning, traders. We made it through the week and now, with the weekend upon us, absolutely anything is possible in this market. At this point, we still have the $7900 target from the IHS and price continues to hover around $7400/$7500. The TFs don't get overbought until the 4H, which means that there's room for price to break and run a bit. Speaking of the 4H, it has remained overbought for four days now. We know a pullback is needed, the question is when will we see it? Price continues to sit just under the daily cloud and appears to be printing a bullish pennant. During last night's TA video, I discussed the possibility of price making a very large move up from this area based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that pennant. If it starts around $6200, then that sets up a target of around $8900/$9000. I just don't see price having that much juice behind it at the moment after the previous movement up. However, if the overhead supply zone fails to contain price, then as I have continued to mention, there are a ton of shorts that would likely rush to cover as that zone is significant and its breach should see price ultimately targeting $10K+. This would also put price above the large descending wedge's resistance line as well as the daily cloud (the latter not having been seen since January 2018). So, a narrative could be carved that would support such a move. If, instead, we just take the flagpole from the previous start of the most recent large movement up which is the $6700/$6800 area, then price should target $8400/$8500. This is the area where I have previously said I could see price reaching during Wave 5 because it lines up pretty well with the daily pivot from two periods ago which sits at $8470. Personally, I prefer this movement as it allows price to then correct back toward the supply zone it pushed through to get there, which should become a demand zone, as well as the top of the daily cloud and the descending resistance line which should become support. In other words, that move would turn the current area of confluence of resistance into a confluence of support. It would also better fit what should be happening in terms of a Wyckoff accumulation period as I outlined a while ago. The final possibility on a move up lies in the pennant, itself. If the pattern is nothing more than a symmetrical triangle (due to the fact that it doesn't actually start with the flagpole), then price should be targeting the height of the triangle upon breakout. In this case, that should see price only targeting the $7800/$7900 area which would complete the subwave 5 of the Wave 3 as I outlined the other day. Failure of price to breach the recent high of $7600 on July 18th should result in a retracement (Wave 4), possibly as far as the $7100 area. This of course would be a positive step as price recoups and prepares for that aforementioned push through the strong confluence of resistance. The longer this drags out at the current level, however, the less inclined I am to believe we will have that particular retracement prior to the push through. Alts have continued to slowly bleed while BTC dominance has increased during this time as well. This often portends a legitimate bull run. I have been mentioning for a few months now that I wanted to see BTC dominance breach 46% as doing so would give us a higher low and higher high since January 2018 which would denote a bullish trend in that dominance. Currently, it is sitting at 45.2%.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
6
Bitcoin's Subwave 5 of Wave 3 in is motionGood morning, traders. It's Thursday and Bitcoin is moving as expected at this time. On last night's live stream I spoke about how we expected to see one more push upward toward $7700-$7800 to complete a possible subwave 5 of this Wave 3. Following through in such a way should give price the look of the previous pattern which occurred prior to the breach of the lower supply zone at $6900 and it would allow price enough room to print a shallow Wave 4 since we have a deep Wave 2. This would set up a Wave 5 push either into, or through, the upper supply zone (large green box). My thought is that if price manages to breach the top of that zone, then we should expect FOMO to kick in as shorts cover and/or are liquidated thereby causing price to breach the descending resistance line of the large descending wedge at that time as well. Failure to breach the top of the supply zone will likely see price dropping back for a correction before beginning Wave 1 of the new set and targeting that breach. The 1H chart shows us the two yellow boxes that I am comparing for further movement to complete the possible subwave 5 toward the 1.272 extension in the supply zone before dropping back to the $7250-$7350 area to complete Wave 4. RSI has made a move above its resistance at 58 which usually indicates a push into overbought territory, bringing price upward with it. MACD just printed a bullish crossover an hour ago, as well, and OBV is printing higher highs and lows in unison with price. The 1D chart shows price pushing against the bottom of the cloud. My primary expectation on this time frame is to see that push complete into the cloud and then see price ride along the bottom edge of the cloud as it completes Wave 4. Wave 5 should then, as mentioned above, breach the confluence of resistance and target the R2 pivot/2.618 extension. We will have to watch price action as Wave 4 completes and Wave 5 begins to know more, but this is the movement I am watching at this time. Also notice that we have had 5 days of green in a row, with today looking like it may be the 6th. The only time we've seen so much green without a daily pullback is during the bull runs prior to this corrective cycle.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
7
Bitcoin continues to appear very bullish but...Good morning, traders. Yesterday proved to be very profitable for Bitcoin bulls, but what should we expect now? It seems that we still have some energy left in the bullish momentum as price hovers around $7400-$7500. Ultimately, we expect to see a retracement after that big move yesterday. The previous supply zone between $6750 and $6900 should contain extensive downward movement. If it fails to hold then we could likely be headed toward $6000. Prior to completing that retracement, however, we may see price make one more attempt higher. Currently, we can see that price is printing a symmetrical triangle on the 1H chart. If price breaches resistance, then we expect it to target the $7700 area before finally beginning the retracement toward the expected target area of $7150-$7250. As mentioned above, if we see retracement beyond that area then, as long as that previous supply zone (lower large green box) holds, we should be fine. That retracement should complete wave 4 and set the wheels in motion for wave 5 which should see price targeting the top of the upper large green box, between $7720 and $7930, and then the 2.618 extension at $8553.50. Just like the previous supply zone, a breach of this level will likely see large moves up as the market FOMOs in. Additionally, breaching this level sets all shorts in the past month-and-a-half, or so, into negative territory which will result in liquidations and covering, and it will likely see price breaching the resistance of the large descending wedge price has been in since February thereby providing even more buyers via FOMO. The daily chart continues to look absolutely amazing at this time and we can see price finding resistance at the R3 pivot which is also the bottom of the daily cloud. However, just because this appears very bullish doesn't mean traders can begin operating emotionally again. Emotion, whether depressive or euphoric, will always end up destroying your capital. Rule #1 is to always protect your capital and Rule #2 is, then, to grow your capital. We can see that the Kijun line is currently sitting on the $7200 level which should help support price on a retracement. Volume and spread has continued to rise overall which is another sign of bullish momentum as it shows us that volume is in agreement with price. Daily RSI is at 67.6 while most lower TF RSIs still remain in overbought territory.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
8
Bitcoin's bullishness and a needed retracementGood morning, traders. As discussed on last night's live stream, Bitcoin is starting to show some retracement which it needs in order to continue further appreciation. The more controlled the retracement, the more bullish it is. Remember, even though we've had some great bullishness recently, it could potentially be a corrective sequence before a continued bearish movement. Even though I don't believe that is the case at this time, we don't trade on opinions, but instead trade on the charts. So risk management remains key. The thick fib lines are from the entire bullish movement's low at $5755 to its high at $6839.40. The thin fib lines are from the recent movement's low at $6079.30 to its high at $6770.30. On the 6H chart, we can see that RSI remains overbought and the current support is at the R1 area from two periods ago. OBV continues to print higher highs and lows in agreement with price. This is an indication of a trend. As a matter of fact, OBV has not been this high since June 14th. Last night I said that I would like to see Bitcoin retrace to the dashed line at $6450, but I wasn't sure if it would make it that far. That would put it right around the 50% retracement of the entire bullish movement. My expectation is that we may only see Bitcoin retrace as far as the dotted horizontal line/yellow box at the $6622.40-$6575 level thereby giving it a shallow retracement. When considering this, we can see that Bitcoin had a large, sharp retracement for wave 2 (beyond 78.6%). As such, as long as this wave 4 takes a bit longer to complete, then we may be able to get away with such a short retracement. What we need is for RSI to reset enough so that price can continue pushing once it meets any resistance. My concern is the large green box right above price. This supply zone should give way to price momentum with the next push up, but we need to make sure that Bitcoin has enough pressure behind it while attempting to push through, hence the RSI reset via retracement. Once through the zone, I believe we will see price target $7134.40-$7200. This puts it at a good extension and the next resistance area. The current R2 pivot is at $7155 so that may keep price from reaching the full 1.618. Once this general area is hit, it should lead to a retracement back toward the large green box just breached before further appreciation. What we don't want to see during any of this is a daily close below the lower large green box at $6320. If that happens, I believe we will be headed back down. Traders shouldn't be getting anxious that price isn't moving fast enough for them. That's an emotional response and will cause more pain than profit in the long run. The fact that Bitcoin hasn't just dropped, so far, during this retracement is a good sign. Traders who are feeling anxious likely have too much money in the market. Emotional responses, negative or positive, are dangerous in the market because they often result in a trader's lack of follow through with their trading plan.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
11
I said I wouldn't want to be short after the shakeout Friday...Good Monday morning, traders. Last Friday I warned, after the shakeout, that I wouldn't want to be short as it appeared the larger interests were filling longs. Fast forward to today and here we stand this morning at about $300, on average, higher than that shakeout. So what does this mean for our current situation? Are we going up or down? After this morning's move, most RSIs below the 12H are topped out having either went well into oversold or at least hit it. It also appears we are transitioning from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs which would insinuate a trend reversal. In terms of the IHS that everyone is watching, we do see expanding volume as the right shoulder is being completed. A close above $6900 would set retail FOMO into motion. This is what I am expecting to see happen. I do believe we are bullish at this time. That doesn't mean we will definitely set an ATH from this point, just that we should expect more upward momentum rather than downward for now. We can see that price hit resistance at the 78.6 retracement of the move up from $5780-$6839.40. As I mentioned last week during our live streams, a break to the upside of the DBW should find resistance at the top of the wedge, and if price pushed through that then we would see a push to the previous period's pivot. The waiting supply zone is noted between $6750 and $6900. It's been hit multiple times already which I stated would likely see it not withstand another attempt at it. At this time, OBV is also preparing for a push through its immediate resistance on the 1H. A push through would set up price's push through the aforementioned SZ. Although the chart does appear bullish at this time, a failure to continue this bullish momentum would likely result in a retest of the corrective cycle's low. Price needs to close above $6900 to fuel the movement with further momentum. The last time the 1H RSI was this high was during the April 12th short squeeze. Retracement is needed, but current bullishness could see price attempting to head higher before any meaningful retracement happens. If we do see retracement, then we want to make sure that $6400 holds. As long as it does, we should expect to see price ready itself for a push through the SZ. A close above this SZ should have price targeting $7800-$7900. Don't forget, you can always click on the "share" button at the lower right under the chart and then click on "Make it Mine" to bring up the live chart so that you can explore it as you would like to.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
10