Proof Technical Analysis Reigns SupremeIn doing my multi-timeframe analysis from earlier in the evening I was bias long. However I wasn't sure if price wanted to make a deeper pullback to the 1H LQZ I had marked up or even come down for the 3rd touch of my trendline in the ascending wedge (reversal pattern).
Dropping down to the 5m timeframe I saw price slowing and formed a hover. I could have set an entry using a lower lot size to build a buffer, confidence, and to be able to participate in the markets - but I didn't. I passed out lol.
I knew my bias was still correct and I was confident in taking "another" long position. I saw a larger flag with the close of that flag above a resistance zone or LQZ however you want to label it, and knew my bias was still valid.
I took my entry as I saw price stalling forming some 5m dojis. After the first big push up I was able to reduced my risk letting the trade play out.
My TP was initially aiming for the high of the day. However I was mindful of NY taking longer to play out and I knew I wasn't able to really monitor my trade. So I "didn't get greedy" and snagged my profits at about 80 ticks on the futures chart.
This was a huge lesson in trusting the story price tells us through market structure and patterns. Although I didn't participate in my first trade, the trade I did take would have been a great stack-in. I'm glad I was able to participate today as my best and only trading days are Thursdays and Fridays.
Xauusdbuy
Strategic Gold Plays: Maverick-Rabbit Precision in Key PatternsBased on your archetype, a combination of the Bold Maverick and the Analytical Rabbit, you have a natural tendency to take calculated risks while also ensuring that those risks are backed by thorough analysis. This hybrid nature likely drives you to engage in trades that have high potential rewards, but only when they meet specific analytical criteria.
Chart Analysis and Coaching on Your Positions
Overview:
Context: This is a 15-minute chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD).
Structure: The chart shows a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. There are multiple channel formations, liquidity zones (LQZ), and key levels identified (including a 4H Over Ride/LQZ level).
1. Position Analysis:
First Entry - Inside the Ascending Channel:
Entry Reasoning: You likely identified the ascending channel as a bullish continuation pattern and entered within it.
Archetype Reflection: As a Bold Maverick, you're comfortable entering before a full breakout, assuming the trend continuation. However, as an Analytical Rabbit, you probably also considered the channel support before entry.
Coaching: This entry aligns with your dual archetype. You took the position inside the channel, expecting price to continue its upward momentum. However, consider tightening your stop loss in case of a fake breakout to protect your position.
Second Entry - Near the LQZ:
Entry Reasoning: You likely saw price approaching the Liquidity Zone (LQZ), expecting a bounce or reaction at this level.
Archetype Reflection: Analytical Rabbits love analyzing levels like LQZ, while Bold Mavericks might anticipate a reaction before confirmation.
Coaching: Good job recognizing the importance of the LQZ. You probably set a trailing stop to capture profit while letting the trade run. Just be cautious with overconfidence—always have a plan if the price moves against you.
Third Entry - At the 4H Over Ride / LQZ level:
Entry Reasoning: This level is crucial as it represents a 4H Liquidity Zone (LQZ), a significant potential reversal point.
Archetype Reflection: This is a classic Bold Maverick move—anticipating a strong reaction at a higher timeframe LQZ. The Analytical Rabbit side of you likely analyzed the 4H timeframe and identified this as a high-probability zone.
Coaching: This is an aggressive yet well-informed entry. Ensure your stop loss is adjusted to below the LQZ to minimize risk in case the market turns against your position.
2. Trailing Stop Loss (SL) Usage:
Position: You’ve used trailing stop losses, which is a smart move, especially given the bold yet analytical approach.
Coaching: Trailing stops can help lock in profits as the price moves in your favor. Ensure that the trailing distance is neither too tight (to avoid premature exit) nor too wide (to protect against significant pullbacks). This aligns with the Analytical Rabbit’s cautious nature.
3. Key Levels and Patterns:
Ascending Channel: The price is respecting the channel boundaries, which validates your initial entries.
LQZ & 4H Override: Price has shown reactions at these levels, indicating they are well-chosen.
4. Risk Management:
Balance Between Risk and Reward: Your trading strategy seems to balance the Bold Maverick’s appetite for risk with the Analytical Rabbit’s focus on minimizing unnecessary exposure.
Coaching: Given your dual archetype, keep refining your entry and exit points. Use the rule of three (waiting for confirmation after three touches on key levels) to align with your analytical side.
Conclusion:
Your trading approach is a robust mix of intuition and analysis. You're combining bold entries with a solid understanding of market structure. Continue to refine your strategy, especially in the context of multi-timeframe analysis and liquidity zones, to maximize your trading effectiveness. Make sure to always have an exit strategy and avoid letting the Maverick side take over without sufficient backing from the Rabbit’s analysis.
Three Black Crows Pattern 📉📉📉hree black crows is a phrase used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that may predict the reversal of an uptrend. Candlestick charts show the day's opening, high, low, and closing prices for a particular security. For stocks moving higher, the candlestick is white or green.
🎯 The three black crows candlestick pattern is considered a relatively reliable bearish reversal pattern. Consisting of three consecutive bearish candles at the end of a bullish trend, the three black crows signals a shift of control from the bulls to the bears.
✅ The black crow pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have opened within the real body of the previous candle and closed lower than the previous candle. Often, traders use this indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns as confirmation of a reversal.
✅ Three Black Crows Explained
Three black crows are a visual pattern, meaning that there are no particular calculations to worry about when identifying this indicator. The three black crows pattern occurs when bears overtake the bulls during three consecutive trading sessions. The pattern shows on the pricing charts as three bearish long-bodied candlesticks with short or no shadows or wicks.
In a typical appearance of three black crows, the bulls will start the session with the price opening modestly higher than the previous close, but the price is pushed lower throughout the session. In the end, the price will close near the session low under pressure from the bears.
This trading action will result in a very short or nonexistent shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure sustained over three sessions to be the start of a bearish downtrend.
✅ Limitations of Using Three Black Crows
If the three black crows pattern involves a significant move lower, traders should be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation before a further move lower. The best way to assess the oversold nature of a stock or other asset is by looking at technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), where a reading below 30.0 indicates oversold conditions, or the stochastic oscillator indicator that shows the momentum of movement.
Many traders typically look at other chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakdown, rather than using the three black crows pattern exclusively. As a visual pattern, it is open to some interpretation such as what is an appropriately short shadow.
Do you use this candlestick pattern ?
Understanding Range TrapsAfter an impulsive move, the market tends to enter into a consolidation.
This is the zone where buys and sellers fight to win the next move.
Of course, whenever sellers and buyers are fighting - liquidity is built.
In this example, sellers attempted to sell from the structure only to be stop hunted before the true move to the downside.
Likewise, buyers would have got activated in buy stops from the structure break to the upside.
Their stop losses would have been placed below the support which again got tackled after the sellers got dealt with.
Once the buyers and sellers liquidity had been wiped the true move could continue which was to the downside.
Gold Price Will be $2000| Silver Price Will Be $20 end of 2020I just want to inform to all traders out there that the price of XAUUSD Gold will be touch $2000 and the price of silver will be up to $20 by the end of 2020.
If looking into the history of the gold, long before the price reach $1000, many traders will not expect the price will be going to hit $1583 today.
Year 2000 = Price $277
(10 years later)
Year 2011= Price $1921
Drop year
Oct 2012 - Dec 2015 = Price $1046.46
Demand increase
Year 2016 - Feb 2020 = Price 1583
End year 2020 = 2000?
WHY? If looking into the mining and production to produce gold bar has been drop recently. Comparing to the crisis now that want gold to be a safe heaven asset.
Fiat currencies that you have in your pocket will decrease its value. If you trade forex, just the all of the currency. Are the going up? The answer is NO.
All currencies is dropping.
Tips for you guys for long term:-
1. Currencies- Sell for long term for position trader
2. Gold and silver - Buy for long term position trader
3. Commodities - Buy for long term position trader
What ever supply will be finish and could not cope the demand, go for long trade
What ever supply that losing its value per time, go for sell trade
You will not losing money if you hold your trading as per my tips (just make sure your account balance is high enough to run the price movement and put a low lot)
By Zezu Zaza
XAUUSD longInital consensus as posted earlier was XAUUSD will retest and price will fall short, however price did not follow my entry requirements so I did not enter the short position.
Now price has broken the previous resistance zone and is consolidating sideways above it.
How I will be entering:
- I will be waiting for a candlestick that wicks down to the current zone that it just broke which will indicate a retest and rejection of that zone.
- I will then wait for a nice bodied bullish candle to confirm the upwards move and will enter at the close of that candle.
Simple TIP.How much should I risk on this trade?
The question I get a lot in trading group.
When I hear it I ask a question back to that person.
How much you can afford to lose?
When I enter a trade I always think about how much I will be losing, and can I afford to lose that amount. We are small planctons here and nobody cares about us, so losing one can arrive very fast.
So I am always asking myself very simple question. How much I can afford to lose on this trade if my desired stop is hit!
I want to go in this trade with 100 lots I calculate the amount at SL level, and if I see that it is too big and I cannot afford to lose that much, I need to reduce the lot size till the point where I can say hey, if my SL is hit I can afford to lose that much, won't be a big deal!
Is how I determine the size I should be taking the position with.
Especially when working on profit goals.
Simple but yet helpful tip.
Always ask yourself that question and it will be easier for you to enter!
Good Luck.
Profit Goal Idea:
FOMC / Educational Preperation. XXX / USD # USD / XXXHello guys.
Personally I am excited as we get closer to FOMC, and I will be trading FOMC event.
I will have positions on:
DXY
USD/JPY
GOLD
SILVER
EUR/USD
I will manage to trade this event with High Frequency news trading machine, as HFT is back in da building, and we had a great success trading news with this machine. Last NFP was sweet as well.
Since I have a lot of new followers that have no Idea how HFT works, I will refresh memory for you guys as well write down things for new followers, but always remember News Trading involves high risk.
So basically what we are doing is predicting the first momentum with HFT.
If you remember the last NFP, you saw the momentum spike upwards. Strange even tho we printed good NFP and rate data, still first momentum was up, and HFT nailed it's job.
Persoanlly how I trade news with HFT is I open BIG lot size, and set TP for this trade to lock the profits, if TP not hit I monitor situation manually and if momentum loses STEAM I close the trade.
I am not using SL because in first second or second before the news there are spikes before momentum direction and spike size depends on your broker.
Last NFP for example It was not a killer, because I feel the signal that is being generated and I know whether the event will be meh.. or event will have strong impact.
Last NFP generated weak signal and we got relatively weak NFP impact.
The same goes for FOMC, as I will feel whether the event will be weak, or strong impact based on data that I get.
But I reckon that FOMC will be a TURNAROUND event and not a Dirrect one.
Basically what that means is that HFT will generate for example LONG signal, once FOMC come out the momentum will be LONG ( spike up ) and then the turnaround follows, the same vice versa.
Of course it can be dirrect move and if signal for example is LONG it can start to go long, and go straight up, same vice versa.
Anyway I'll be in the trade, because this FOMC event should be great and should move the market and you can trade any xxx/usd usd/xxx pair if you want since on all of them there will be an impact.
Let me know in comment section below if you have any questions.
TPP