Rising/Falling Wedge
Ascending Wedge in an uptrend-bearish
1. This pattern occurs when the slope of price candles’ highs and lows join at a point forming an inclinin wedge.
2. The slope of both lines is up with the lower line being steeper than the higher one.
3. Place an order to breakdown and out of the wedge. The drop out of the wedge can be very dramatic.
Descending Wedge in a downtrend -bullish
1. This formation occurs when the slope of the price candle high and lows join at a point forming a declining wedge.
2. The slope of both lines is down with the upper line being steeper than the lower one.
3. To trade this pattem, place an order on a break up and out of the wedge.
Yaser_rahmati
RSI Trend Strategy GuidelinesThe RSI is a versatile indicator, and can be used to provide entry signals during a trend. To get the signals a moving average is applied to the RSI.
1. Trades are only taken in the direction of the trend. For an uptrend only take longs. For a downtrend only take shorts (puts).
2. During a downtrend the RSI must move above 60 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back below its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was above 60 recently) go short.
3. During an uptrend the RSI must move below 40 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back above its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was below 40 recently) go long.
4. Give the price at least two or three bars (whatever time frame you are trading on) or more before considering an exit. This gives the price some time to move in your favor.
Using BTC Dominance With Current Bitcoin PriceSome people monitor bitcoin price along with bitcoin dominance to help them make trading decisions. Although they are not iron laws, here are some potential outcomes that various combinations of BTC price and dominance may be indicative of.
1. When the price and dominance of BTC are rising, it could signal a potential bitcoin bull market.
2. When the price of BTC is rising but BTC dominance is falling, it could signal a potential altcoin bull market.
3. When the price of BTC is falling but BTC dominance is rising, it could signal a potential altcoin bear market.
4. When the price and dominance of BTC are falling, it could signal a potential bear trend for the entire crypto market.
5. While these two factors do not imply a definite bull or bear market, historical observations suggest a correlation.
Shooting Star Candlestick
What is the Shooting Star Pattern?
1. A shooting star is a type of candlestick pattern which forms when the price of the security opens, rises significantly, but then closes near the open price.
2. The distance between the highest price of the day and the opening price should be more than twice as large as the shooting star’s body.
What does Shooting Star tells you?
1. Shooting stars signals a potential downside reversal and is most effective when it forms after 2-3 consecutive rising candles having higher highs.
2. A shooting star opens and rises strongly during the trading session, showing the same buying pressure that is seen over the last trading sessions.
3. At the end of the trading session, the sellers push the price down near the open.
4. This shows that the buyers have lost control by the end of the day, and the sellers have taken over.
5. The long upper shadow indicates that the buyers are losing position as the price drops back to the open.
6. The candle after the shooting star gaps down and then moves lower on heavy volume.
7. This candle helps in confirming the price reversal and indicates that the price will continue to fall.
Trading Scenario
1. Trade Entry: Before you enter a shooting star trade, you should confirm that the prior trend is an active bullish trend.
2. Stop Loss: You should always try to use a stop-loss order when trading the shooting star candle pattern.
3. Taking Profits: The price target for this trade should be equal to the size of the shooting star pattern.
Limitations of Shooting Star
1. One should not only rely on a candle pattern like in a shooting star for making trading decisions.
2. This is why confirmation is required, one can confirm by the next candle or other technical analysis indicators.
3. One should also use stop losses when using candlesticks to control the losses.
4. A candlestick pattern is more significant when it occurs near an important level signaled by other forms of technical analysis.
First Layer On-chain Analysis: BTC DAA
What are Bitcoin Daily Active Addresses?
When you set up a Bitcoin wallet (or a wallet for other cryptocurrencies), your wallet gets a unique address assignment. This address is vital to ensure the sender sends their cryptocurrency to the intended recipient. A typical crypto wallet address contains a combination of alphanumeric characters – in other words, a combination of words and letters. Usually, the address is between 26 and 35 characters long, and it can be represented by a QR code.
This string of characters comes from a hashed version of the wallet's public key and a checksum to avoid any typos. A checksum is a mathematical value assigned to a file sent through a network (in this case, the Bitcoin blockchain). The value verifies that the data contained in the file remains unchanged. Essentially, it's a method for error-checking data.
Digital wallets make it easy to copy and paste your address to ensure accuracy. For example, you can quickly and easily scan a QR code or use the corresponding address to send and receive crypto over the blockchain.
In short, the active address allows you to send or receive transactions within a set time period. Successful transactions are visible on the blockchain, which works as a public distributed ledger. You can observe and analyze other investors' activities on the ledger to better understand what's going on daily in the crypto world.
Active Addresses
An address becomes active as soon as it's been a part of a successful transaction – either as a sender or receiver. Because of this, active addresses help indicate daily users' activity on the blockchain.
In other words, they represent the total number of active users on any given day on the network. So if you hear the term monthly active users, that's referring to the total number of users that either send or receive crypto in a specific month.
However, it's important to note that a specific address is counted just once in a particular timeframe. So, if you're counting the number of daily active addresses but someone makes two transactions in one day, the address will only be counted once.
Another essential point to note with active addresses is that they must be a part of an on-chain transaction. This is because on-chain transactions are considered successful once they've been recorded and confirmed on the blockchain.
On-chain transactions are permanently recorded on blockchain networks, including private blockchains, public blockchains, hybrid blockchains, and consortium blockchains.
On the other hand, wallets with off-chain transactions are not counted as active addresses, as they are not recorded on the blockchain like on-chain transactions. Instead, off-chain transactions use traditional peer-to-peer transfer methods, including exchanging private keys linked to a new wallet.
How are Daily Active Addresses Related to Price?
So, how do price and daily active addresses correlate? Generally, a price drop will also lead to a decline in daily active addresses.
When crypto prices start to drop, investors will attempt to leave the market. However, active addresses can sometimes go up, as those who bought their Bitcoin at a low price will want to preserve any profits before the price falls even lower. In other words, they'll sell their Bitcoin and convert it to fiat currency.
Additionally, some people will exit the crypto market to avoid succumbing to losses during a market meltdown. Investing can be a rollercoaster of emotions, and often people will sell coins during these fluctuations because they can't handle this emotional rollercoaster.
When investors dump coins based on their feelings, it leads to fewer active addresses. For example, when China cracked down on Bitcoin in the summer of 2021, the number of daily active users dropped by nearly 60%, from 1.3 million to about half a million.
Exploring the DAA Data
Data from daily active addresses can be used in many ways. For example, their number can indicate how healthy the Bitcoin network is. The metric shows you how the network grows over time. It helps you tell how many people are utilizing the blockchain and whether a blockchain project is attracting new investors.
Active addresses also follow the rules of supply and demand. If the demand for a product goes up while the supply remains the same, the price will increase. Similarly, if a network sees an increase in daily active addresses, the cost of the particular coin will also likely go up.
For blockchain projects like Ethereum that have an unlimited supply, a high number of active addresses is crucial. If a network like Ethereum sees a lot of transit, that’s a good sign of scalability.
In this case, the crypto gains value because of its utility instead of its scarcity (as with Bitcoin). Therefore, active addresses give you the trust to invest in the project.
Building DAA Data into your Investment Strategy
While you shouldn’t solely rely on DAA data for your investment strategy, it is an important factor to consider.
If you’re thinking of investing in a new crypto project, paying attention to the DAA can tell you how much traction the project is gaining and how much trust others have in it.
In terms of Bitcoin, the DAA data can help let you know when it may be a good time to buy or sell. For example, if you notice fewer daily active addresses, that may indicate you should sell, particularly if the price looks to be turning lower at the same time. However, if you’re using Bitcoin as a long-term investment strategy, DAA data shouldn’t be your sole reason for buying or selling.
As we mentioned earlier, emotions can play into investing. If you wait out the price drops, you may see bigger returns in the future.
Conclusion
Paying attention to daily active addresses is an important component of Bitcoin investing. It can also help you learn about the popularity and trust around new projects. However, it shouldn’t be your only guiding factor in investing.
RSI Overbought & Oversold Strategy
What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
1. The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator introduced in 1978.
2. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.
3. An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
4. The RSI line crossing below the overbought line or above the oversold line is often seen by traders as a signal to buy or sell.
5. The RSI works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets.
Geopolitical Analysis : Wild Palladium Rally [Ukraine Crisis]
A. Element
1. Palladium is a chemical element with the symbol Pd and atomic number 46.
2. It is a rare and lustrous silvery-white metal.
3. It is discovered in 1803 by the English chemist William Hyde Wollaston.
B. Platinum group metals (PGMs)
1. Palladium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium form platinum group metals (PGMs).
2. They have similar chemical properties.
3. But, palladium has the lowest melting point and is the least dense of them.
C. Application of palladium
1. Catalytic converters (convert as much as 90% of the harmful gases in automobile exhaust into harmless substances)
2. A key component of fuel cells in which hydrogen and oxygen react to produce electricity, heat, and water.
3. Dentistry
4. Medicine
5. Hydrogen purification
6. Chemical applications
7. Groundwater treatment
8. Jewelry
9. Electronics
D. Occurrence
1. Russia
- Norilsk Nickel: 39% of the world's production
2. South Africa
3. Canada
4. U.S
E. Palladium producers
1. Norilsk Nickel (MCX: GMKN, LSE: MNOD), palladium powder, and ingots
2. North American Palladium (NYSE: PAL), Canada's largest producer of palladium operating the Lac des Iles palladium mine near Thunder Bay, Ontario.
3. Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC), a major North American palladium miner in Montana.
Measure Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RRR)
key Takeaways
1. The risk/reward ratio is used by traders and investors to manage their capital and risk of loss.
2. The ratio helps assess the expected return and risk of a given trade.
3. An appropriate risk reward ratio tends to be anything greater than 1:3.
How to Measure Reward-to-Risk (RRR) ?
1. Evaluate the potential price levels for your stop loss (SL) and profit target (PT)
2. Measure the distance between your entry and your stop loss (SL). This is your “Potential Risk“.
3. Measure the distance between your entry and your profit target (PT). This is your “Potential Reward“.
4. Divide the two: Potential Reward / Potential Risk.
RRR Calculation
1. Potential Risk = 66.24 - 63.73 = 2.51
2. Potential Reward = 63.73 - 54.97 = 8.76
3. RRR = Potential Reward / Potential Risk = 8.76/2.51 = 3.49
Break-Even Point Calculation
Break-Even Point (BEP)
1. The break-even point is the point at which total cost and total revenue are equal.
2. Meaning, there is no loss or gain.
3. Potential investors in a business not only want to know the return to expect on their investments but also the point when they will realize this return.
Calculating the Breakeven Point (BEP)
1. Current Total Investment = (1*BTC@49348.17) + (2*BTC@39342.32) + (4*BTC@21117.39) + (8*BTC@10357.35) = 295361.17
2. Breakeven Point = Current Total Investment / (Total Number of BTC) = 295361.17 / 15 = 19690.74
Martingale Strategy
Martingale Strategy
1. The Martingale Strategy is a strategy of investing or betting introduced by French mathematician Paul Pierre Levy.
2. It is considered a risky method of investing.
3. It is based on the theory of increasing the amount allocated for investments, even if its value is falling, in expectation of a future increase.
4. When the Martingale Strategy is used in trading, the trader must double the position size when faced with a loss.
5. The Martingale system is a methodology to amplify the chance of recovering from losing streaks.
6. The amount spent on trading can reach huge proportions after just a few transactions.
7. If the trader runs out of funds and exits the trade while using the strategy, the losses faced can be disastrous.
8. The risk-to-reward ratio of the Martingale Strategy is not reasonable.
Calculating the Breakeven Point (BEP)
1. Current Total Investment = (1*BTC@49348.17) + (2*BTC@39342.32) + (4*BTC@21117.39) = 212502.25
2. Breakeven Point = Current Total Investment / (Total Number of BTC) = 212502.25 / 7 = 30357.48
Trading Hours and Market ClockTime Zone: UTC + 4:30
01. Wellington NZX: 02:30 am - 09:15 am
02. Sydney ASX: 04:30 am - 10:30 am
03. Tokyo JPX: 04:30 am - 10:30 am
04. Singapore SGX: 05:30 am - 01:30 pm
05. Hong Kong HKEx: 06:00 am - 12:30 pm
06. Shanghai SSE: 06:00 am - 11:30 am
07. Mumbai NSE: 08:15 am - 02:30 pm
08. Dubai DFM: 10:30 am - 03:15 pm
09. London LSE: 11:30 am - 08:00 pm
10. Zurich SIX: 11:30 am - 08:00 pm
11. Frankfurt FWB: 11:30 am - 08:00 pm
12. New York NYSE NASDAQ: 06:00 pm - 12:30 am
13. Toronto TSX: 06:00 pm - 12:30 am
Intraday 30 Minutes Time FrameTask: Change the time frame to 1-minute to see how we can make a 30-minute candlestick.
Open
The opening price at the beginning of the 1st minute
High
The highest price at which the stock traded during the 30-minute duration
Low
The lowest price at which the stock traded during the 30-minute duration
Close
The closing price as on the 30th minute
Number of Candles
Approximately 48 candles per day
The Line Chart
Each trading day has four data points (OHLC):
1. Open (O)
2. High (H)
3. Low (L)
4. Close (C)
Below are some of the chart types:
1. Line chart
2. Bar Chart
3. Japanese Candlestick
The Line and Bar chart
1. The Line and Bar chart
2. Uses only one data point to form the chart
3. A line chart is formed by plotting a stock’s closing prices or an index
Advantage
1. Simplicity
2. With one glance, the trader can identify the general trend of security.
Disadvantage
1. Also simplicity
2. The line chart does not provide any additional detail.
3. Plus the line chart takes into consideration only the closing prices ignoring the open, high and low.
4. For this reason, traders prefer not to use the line charts.
Golden Cross
GOLDEN CROSS
1. A golden cross occurs when a faster-moving average crosses a slower moving average.
2. Specifically, you need the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages.
3. Anything other than these two periods and it is not a true golden cross.
4. The golden cross is a powerful trade signal, but this does not mean you should buy every cross of the 50-period moving average and the 200.
5. You will need to bring a higher level of sophistication to the setup, to ensure you are buying into a trade with real opportunity.
THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSS
1. As the downtrend in the stock market ends, the short-term 50-day moving average moves below the 200- day moving average.
2. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart.
3. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart.
THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSSPROFIT POTENTIAL OF THE GOLDEN CROSS PATTERN
A. DEATH CROSS
1. One option is to wait for a cross of the 50 back below the 200 as another selling opportunity.
2. The only issue with this approach is you are likely to give back a sizeable portion of your profits since moving averages are a lagging indicator.
B. PRIOR SUPPORT
1. What you can also do is look for areas of resistance overhead which will act as selling opportunities for longs that have been holding the stock for a long period of time.
2. A caveat to this strategy is that the stock may consolidate and push higher.
C. TRENDLINE BREAK
1. If the golden cross is real, the signal will likely generate a strong buying opportunity.
2. You can then use the first couple of reactionary lows to create an uptrend line.
3. You then hold the stock until this trendline is broken.
50 Day Moving Average Strategy
TRADE ENTRY
1. To enter a 50-day moving average trade, you should wait for a breakout.
2. Whenever the price breaks the 50-day SMA, you should open a trade in the direction of the breakout.
3. In most cases, the price action will continue in the direction of the breakout.
STOP LOSS
1. If the price breaks the 50 SMA upwards, we need to go long, placing a stop below a bottom prior to the breakout. The opposite is true for bearish trades.
2. If the price breaks the 50 SMA downwards, we need to short the stock placing a stop below the bottom prior to the breakout.
PROFIT TARGETS
1. Hold your trades until the price action breaks your 50-day moving average in the direction opposite to your trade.
2. If you are long, you close the trade when the price breaks the 50-day SMA downwards.
3. If you are short, you close the trade when the price breaks the 50-day SMA upwards.
CONCLUSION
1. Stock price above the 50-day moving average is usually considered bullish.
2. Stock price below the 50-day moving average is usually considered bearish.
3. If the price meets the 50 day SMA as support and bounces upwards, consider a long entry.
4. Stock price meets the 50-day SMA as resistance and bounces downwards, consider a short entry.
5. If the price breaks the 50-day SMA downwards, you should switch your opinion to bearish.
6. If the price breaks the 50-day SMA upward, you should switch your opinion to bullish.
Position Size Calculation - Example 11. INPUT
PE = Capital($) = 1000
RP = Risk (%) = 2 %
EP = Entry Price = 1719.78
XP = Exit Price = 1733.75
2. OUTPUT (Goal)
PS = Position Size = ?
LEV = Leverage = ?
IM = Initial Margin = ?
3. CALCULATION
RD = Risk ($) = 1000 * (0.02) = 20
SLD = |EP - XP| = |1719.78 - 1733.75| = 13.97
SLP = Stop Loss (%) = (SLD / EP) = (13.97 / 1719.78) = 0.0081
PS = Position Size ($) = RD / SLP = 20 / 0.0081 = 2469.13
CPV = Current Price Value = EP = 1719.78
QNT = Quantity = PS / CPV = 2469.13 / 1719.78 = Roundup(1.435) = 2
4. Assumption and Final Calculation
LEV = {3, 5, 10, 20}
IM = PS / LEV = 2469.13 / {3, 5, 10, 20} = {823.04, 493.826, 246.913, 123.4565}
Fibonacci Analysis - Part 1
A. Fibonacci Series
01. The Fibonacci series is a sequence of numbers starting from zero arranged so that the value of any number in the series is the sum of the previous two numbers.
02. The Fibonacci sequence is as follows:
0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, …
B. Properties Of The Fibonacci Series
03. The series extends to infinity.
04. Divide any number in the series by the previous number; the ratio is always approximately 1.618. For example:
610/377 = 1.618
377/233 = 1.618
233/144 = 1.618
05. The ratio of 1.618 is considered as the Golden Ratio.
06. Further into the ratio properties, one can find remarkable consistency when a number in the Fibonacci series is divided by its immediate succeeding number. For example:
89/144 = 0.618
144/233 = 0.618
377/610 = 0.618
07. Similar consistency can be found when any number in the Fibonacci series is divided by a number two places higher. For example:
13/34 = 0.382
21/55 = 0.382
34/89 = 0.382
08. Also, consistency is when a number in the Fibonacci series is divided by a number 3 places higher. For example:
13/55 = 0.236
21/89 = 0.236
34/144 = 0.236
55/233 = 0.236
C. Fibonacci Retracement
09. Fibonacci analysis can be applied when there is a noticeable up-move or down-move in prices.
10. Whenever the stock moves either upwards or downwards sharply, it usually tends to retrace back before its next move.
11. ‘The retracement level forecast’ is a technique that can identify up to which level retracement can happen.
12. Fibonacci retracements are movements in the chart that go against the trend.
13. In finance, Fibonacci retracement is a method of technical analysis for determining support and resistance levels. It is named after the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, whose ratios provide price levels to which markets tend to retrace a portion of a move before a trend continues in the original direction.
14. A Fibonacci retracement forecast is created by taking two extreme points on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by important Fibonacci ratios.
15. 0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100% is a complete reversal to the original price before the move.
16. Horizontal lines are drawn in the chart for these price levels to provide support and resistance levels.
17. Unlike moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels are static prices. They do not change.
18. Because these levels are inflection points, traders expect some type of price action, either a break or a rejection.
19. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement that is often used by stock analysts approximates to the "golden ratio".
D. How should you use the Fibonacci retracement levels?
20. Think of a situation where you wanted to buy a particular stock, but you have not been able to do so because of a sharp run-up in the stock.
21. The most prudent action to take would be to wait for a retracement in the stock in such a situation.
22. Fibonacci retracement levels such as 61.8%, 38.2%, and 23.6% act as a potential level up to which a stock can correct.
YASER RAHMATI