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EURUSD: Update and Rgmov wave countIn this publication I wish to expand on my previous multi-timeframe analysis of the Euro. In the right we have a wave count I've updated, based on Tim West's publication, which warned of the end of a wave B in the Rgmov 'wave chart'. This alerted of a potential uptrend to emerge from that spot, which did materialize but has taken longer time than Tim estimated. The duration of this corrective structure is now 2.618 of the sumation of waves A and B of this triple correction. My view is that we're in a neutral/extracting triangle formation, currently ending wave e (which looks like it's a triangle of the same kind as well). Complexity of these patterns makes it very hard to decipher what the structure is until they are almost complete. If this is the case, we have sufficient time to have completed a wave 2 in an impulsive decline (could also be a B, but the end result would be the same: we have a massive decline ahead, which aligns with my quarterly and monthly time at mode forecasts). In the left we have a monthly and quarterly time at mode forecast, with a 17 quarter downtrend active, aiming for targets below parity. The monthly has a 10 month mode and a 10 month decline active, and we now have a new 10 month mode if this monthly bar closes at this spot and doesn't expand range down (which might happen as soon as tomorrow during the ECB and/or rates decision events). If I'm right about these observations, we can expect a decline at least as violent as the one from the 2014 high to the lowest low, but potentially even bigger and sharper if it's a wave 3 that's about to commence. You don't want to miss this action, trust me. For more information, contact me via pm, I'm hosting a trading room for signals and also running a PAMM. My profile has all the details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
9
EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD). The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there. For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day. You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal. Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow. Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
AUDUSD: Strong downtrend active, but for how much longer?After analyzing the vixfix spikes and 75% retracement levels, and their effects on price when retesting said levels, and contrasting these to the time at mode signals on this chart I concluded that the downtrend in the Australian dollar might be short lived, althought potentially very steep. I projected two targets on chart, as well as the different potential support levels, derived from range expansion bars, as well as vix fix spike retracements, and a linear regression of the current weekly trend. It's clear to me that for now the opportunities are to go short on retracements until the downtrend time expires, or we reach the range target at least. The dollar rally, if tied to the S&P500 and the US treasury bonds rally might be short lived based on my analysis on the subject, but don't be quick to discard this trend right here. I anticipate an accelerated decline in this pair, so I'll continue to look for short opportunities while my time at mode downtrend signal is valid. Multiple time at mode and Elliott Wave signals point to a strong rally in the S&P, with positive correlation in TLT, until it peaks. I keep getting time at mode uptrend expirations by the end of August, and if the expanding terminal wedge is confirmed, the start of the US equities bear market might match with said dates. Will update this thread with audusd opportunities from now on.
A
by IvanLabrie
8
USDJPY: UpdateSimilarly to GBPJPY, USDJPY seems to have topped after moving past the vix spike 75% retrace support level. On the daily chart we can observe bearish rgmov signals and on the weekly we can see that price has gone under 123, and failed to produce new highs after testing a quarterly range expansion bar's 50% level. It seems like this is the start of a strong bear market in this pair, so I'll be looking to go short on a retracement. Invalidation/stop is a retrace past the 61.8 level of the first wave down, which I think will be over the weekly mode. (I'm not positive is wave 1 down is finished, probably soon). Again, going short here once we get the aforementioned retracment, is a very significant opportunity, which I don't intend in missing. Good luck, and brace yourselves...wild ride coming. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
31
BTCUSD: Update and forecast/guidelinesOn chart we have conflicting signals. It seems that the bears decided to book profits and this ignited a short squeeze rally, or at least that is what logic implies. Considering multiple variables, we can determine with a high degree of certainty that Bitcoin is set to rally off this juncture, as long as it remains above 228.04. We can expect realistically to retest the 66 period daily EMA, but the time at mode target aims higher, to the 268.64 mark. Keep in mind we still have a valid downtrend signal, that despite having reached its target, has time left to expire. Time at mode signal expirations usually show reactions, which normally form strong moves against the signal's direction. These can have lasting effects, or merely be pullbacks, but I've witnessed many occasions where this is true. I'd rate it very highly in probabilistic terms, based on my almost 2 years of experience since I've learned this method. This is of particular significance when there are fundamental events nearing the expiration dates. I wouldn't bother with fundamentals, regarding Bitcoin in general, since it obeys the time at mode signals so well, but September is a huge month for many reasons, and one of them is the possibility of a rate hike for the dollar next week. I'm holding both BTC and ETH, on a 70/30% basis, but I'll try to convert most of the BTC to Euros this week as protection for the conflicting signal enviroment. If you're a BTC holder, consider exchanging some of your BTC (or dollars!) to either Yen or Euros (maybe 50/50). It's possible that we see a sharp move, and volatility might make us incurr in losses if we are negligent with our assets. My expectations are of a rising Euro after declining to 1.10+-50 pips, a rising Yen while the stock market collapses this month, which would be accelerated by the Fed's rate hike or even if they don't hike rates! See my charts on related ideas for more information on this macro picture. Going back to Bitcoin, in the boon of the Bitcoin XT/fork-no fork situation, it's highly likely to see volatility come back, 2011 style, so, brace yourselves, it's going to be a shakey ride! Have a nice weekend, but most of all good luck! Ivan.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
10