Basic Technical and COT Analysis on AUDUSD ShortAUDUSD Short Late/Re-entry
Price has come back down to the last swing low/base made before what was essentially a two week bull run. We have broken past this area and come back to retest it.
When price came back to retest this key zone, we saw it touch the 61.8% fib retracement level.
Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority short AUDUSD.
128,816 short positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 49,640 longs.
Latest COT filings do show a slight increase in Net Positions (Longs-Shorts) compared to the previous. Possibly due to profit taking by Non-Commercials.
Commercial Traders, who are in most cases contrarian to price, are a majority long.
Commercials have 129,292 long positions open vs 39,515 shorts.
My original entry was around 0.65491 on the 21st of Feb close. My SL was at 0.66249, just above what was then the swing high, but have now moved to 0.66008, just above the latest swing high.
#cftc
GBPZAR November 19th, 2023The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week ending November 14, 2023, shows that there are signs of weakness for the British pound (GBP).
Non-commercial traders, which are typically hedge funds and other large institutional investors, reduced their long positions in GBPZAR by 4,735 contracts. This was the largest weekly decrease in long positions since the week ending March 1, 2023. However, commercial traders still have a net long position in GBPZAR, which suggests that they are still generally bullish on the pair.
The decrease in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders suggests that there is a growing number of traders who are expecting the GBP to weaken against the ZAR. This could be due to a number of factors, including:
The ongoing economic uncertainty in the United Kingdom. The UK economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, interest rates, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These factors could lead to a decline in demand for British goods and services, which could weaken the GBP.
The strengthening of the South African rand. The South African rand has been strengthening in recent weeks due to a number of factors, including rising commodity prices and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. This could make the ZAR a more attractive investment for foreign investors, which could further weaken the GBP.
Based on the COT report, it is likely that the GBP will continue to weaken against the ZAR in the near term. Traders should be prepared for further declines in the pair.
source: www.cftc.gov
✴️ Binance Lawsuit In A Nut ShellThese Governmental institutions are going to be loosing all credibility, if they have any left.
One says that cryptocurrencies are "securities", the other is saying that cryptocurrencies are "commodities" and are starting a public fight over this issue involving and harming in the meantime millions upon millions of innocent people.
Cryptocurrencies are neither securities nor commodities, they are a new asset class. They are cryptocurrencies.
Define this new asset class and build a new institution that is in charge of overseeing them based on the newly stablished definition.
Limit the other rabid institution so they won't infect the rest of the world.
✔️ Limit the SEC and the CFTC to their respective fields and markets and let the "Cryptocurrency Task Force" (CTF) deal with Crypto.
The law should be based on creating the means to allow the companies that are operating now and those that will show up in the future to flourish.
What can we do to promote expansion, innovation and growth while at the same time protecting customers?
What can we do so that the entire industry becomes a better place for all those involved?
This type of institution people will love, support and enjoy.
Namaste.
Trade Alert - Take ProfitTraders,
We’re 8 for the last 8 with at least 5 of those wins on XRP. I’ve watched the drop since resistance and XRP looks to be forming a shooting star candlestick pattern on the daily. Not wanting to test fate, I’ve opted to take the remaining profit here at .46 cents. We also look to be forming an “M Pattern”. This makes sense from a technical standpoint. I would like to see us go back and retest the upper side of that triangle that we recently broke out of.
Stew
P.S. - Ignore that re-entry area. Forgot to take it off of my chart. That has already been taken advantage of and I now anticipate we may drop below it.
Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared.
However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level.
It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar.
Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices
In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons.
However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support.
Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook.
Tighter supply on the global sugar market
Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane.
In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production.
This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop.
The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market.
Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions
Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe.
The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices.
Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons.
Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market.
Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels.
Sources
1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023
2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022
3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.
“Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed."
www.cftc.gov
COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers.
This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week,
Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement?
Ask your representative maybe? If you are US.
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 4.10 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 04.10 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
40:60- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
40:60
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
60:40 - Bullish:Bearish
OVERVIEW:
With no particularly crazy FED announcements this week and no BTC options expirations we should be in for a relatively low volatility week. $20k is looking particularly hard to break so I am expecting consolidation around this area to form a bit of a bullish pennant that is set up to fail unless it can start to trade and consolidate above $20k comfortably ie. at least a daily close above $20k.
The DXY has dropped alittle bit to allow this run up for BTC although is finding dupport on the 20DEMA there now so that might bounce and take BTC down with it. For general targets - breaking above $20.3k in order to see $21k although any higher than that is going to be a stretch which will fill the weekly pivot.
Breaking below $19.7k will likely see BTC reenter the high value area for continued ranging between $19k/$18.8k to $19.8k. I am not hugely bullish atm.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
BULLISH FACTORS:
+Broken out of 200EMA & 20DEMA
+ Broken up out of High Value Area
+ Lots of bullish news
+ Large unfilled weekly pivot area
+ Low value areas overhead
+ Broken Local Trendline resistance
+ Descending Wedge on the Weekly
BEARISH FACTORS:
- 50 DEMA Resistance Incoming
- Double Top
- Bearish Divergence
- High Volume Node Resistance
- Overbought on 1h RSI
- Key Overhead Resistance
NEWS:
Bull:
+ Russia allows international trade ing BTC and crypto for any industry
+ 🦄 Fashion brand Hugo Boss announces plans to launch its first-ever #NFT collection.
+ Argentina's state-owned oil & gas company is mining Bitcoin at one of the biggest oil fields in the co… t.co
+ New York FED President John Williams says inflation will likely come down to 3% by next year.
Bear:
- Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates by 25bps to 2.6%, highest since July 2013.
- SEC fines Kim Kardashian $1.3 million for illegal promotion of crypto token
cryptopanic.com
Volatility
* UN Warns Fed to Cool Rate Hikes
cryptopanic.com
* Financial Stability Oversight Council calls on Congress to create federal framework for #stablecoin issuers.
* Biden administration urges Congress to pass laws to clear up #cryptocurrency regulation.
Gold analysis: Is the tide rising now? Gold has risen 5.5% from its July 21 low of $1,680 per troy ounce, as market sentiment suddenly shifted to safe-haven assets in the aftermath of a slew of recession-risk events and rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.
According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, gold net speculative positions increased by 34% to 124.3K contracts on the week ending August 2, up from 92.7K the previous week.
This marks the largest weekly increase in gold net speculative positions this year. Speculators' positioning on gold has consistently declined from a peak of 274.4K in the first week of March to 92.7K at the end of July, the lowest level since May 2019.
Despite this uptick, gold's positioning still remains quite weak, implying that a shift in sentiment toward gold could result in significant upside price pressures.
Looking at technical indicators, the 14-day RSI recently broke above the 50 mark, also rising from severely oversold levels, indicating that bulls have gained the upper hand in the short-term momentum.
Last Friday, however, the release of the US labour market report weakened gold's price momentum slightly, as both non-farm payroll (528,000 vs. 250,000) and hourly wages (5.2% yoy vs. 4.9% yoy) soared far above expectations, causing a repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectation to the upside. However, unlike past Fed rate repricing episodes in May and July, this one did not result in a massive gold's sell-off.
Consequently, this could be an early sign that the negative relationship between gold and the Fed's expected interest rates is beginning to dwindle. If this narrative gained further traction, gold would resume its traditional function as a hedge against inflation.
Another print above expectations (8.7 percent year-over-year) would certainly prompt Fed rate responses, but also raise further doubts that this inflation can be tamed through rate hikes, potentially weighing on the dollar and favouring gold.
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT
RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
AUDUSD - Short Idea
The fundamental Bias of this pair is bearish.
Most analysts and financial institutions predict a downtrend. The AUDUSD trend is bearish.
In terms of CFTC data, there are more sell positions on this
Retailers are also buying these assets, which gives our downtrend a better chance.
Technically, the bullish channel is broken and with the pullback to the same channel, the risk position can be received to the appropriate reverb.
Set your SL: 71.908
Set your TP: 71.00
[USDJPY]Speculators’ Yen short positions increasedThe chart below is the USDJPY weekly chart with speculators’ position provided by CFTC.
The purple bars at the bottom of the chart is speculators’ Yen short positions which have been increased since the end of Sep.
Looking at the historical data where speculators’ Yen short is at peak, there is two points;
1. Week of Oct1, 2018 (blue horizontal/vertical line), USDJPY rate: 114.843
2. Week of Nov13, 2017 (Red horizontal/vertical line), USDJPY rate: 114.603
The latest CFTC positions show there is still gap between Oct25 week and blue&red horizontal line, which could indicate that the USDJPY rate would break 115.00 shortly.
More USDollar strength? #DXY + Fundamental driversHello traders!
I expect more upside for the dollar both technically and fundamentally.
Fundamental Bias:
Weak Bullish
Primary Driver:
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED
Rationale:
More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid- 2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation. All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish.
Primary Driver:
2. Real Yields
Rationale:
With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term.
Primary Driver:
3. The global risk outlook
Rationale:
One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata.org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term, the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation)
Primary Driver:
4. Economic Data
Rationale:
Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlights being PCE and Advanced GDP (old news). Also keep in mind that the Fed has largely reduced the impact of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting by already acknowledged a Nov taper and a possible mid-2022 conclusion. So, even though data will be important, it’s unlikely to sway the Fed from their tapering plans.
Primary Driver:
5. CFTC Analysis
Rationale:
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +872 with a net non-commercial position of +35934. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a key focus for the USD in the week ahead.
Have a great week!
Vitez
Bitcoin : Overview
In Bitcoin, a slight loss of momentum is observed in the volume-based On Balance Volume Indicator.
When we look at the relative COT Positions (for which we chose some distant past)
While the price is up 55%, positions are not at a level to support it.
But it would be more robust to see a similar mismatch from the recent past.
Here, in the first place, we will look at whether it has closed above the price value of 11671.5.
When we examine the Blockchain data in the automatic period:
Small blockages are observed in Bitcoin transaction volume,hashrate,miner's revenue. (Not really negative now)
If these values decrease while the price is rising, it will trigger a short position.
It should not be forgotten that the support point for the digital currency, which is also tied to the US presidential election, is 9688.5 .
Regards.
EUR|CAD Long OpportunityFX:EURCAD
Leave a like below as well as a comment if this is helpful, it is always much appreciated!
Currently the EUR/CAD is Selling off, looking to retest a recent low at 1.54270
Tomorrow the CFTC will release this weeks COT data report and upon analyzing it, we can have a better idea of the direction that price action is heading. ** I will update this analysis once the report comes out**
If we can see a strong support around the recent low, we can expect bullish continuation which would help shift the MACD above the 0 level as well as crossing the Signal and MACD SMA lines back up indicating bullish action
Gold Institutional Buy Positions StackingCommercials Net Positions 1/27:
Buys 212k Sells 564k
Commercials Net Positions 2/3:
Buys 192 Sells 553.
🤔Thus telling us they have decreased long positions and decreased short positions
Institutional Net Positions 1/27:
Buys 374k Sells 57k
Institutional Net Positions 2/3:
Buys 376k Sells 46k.
🤔Thus telling us they have increased their long positions and have decreased their short positions
EURJPY Bullish Wedge Breakout and Waiting for Long OpportunityIt would be correct to look at the reactions of the positions in the 48-week drop in the EURJPY pair :
Last 48 Week :
COT Positions :
-For JPYUSD
Despite the rise, there is a 6.76% decrease in COT positions.
-For EURUSD :
Despite the decline, a 7.21% increase in COT positions.
The Bullish Wedge Breakout here shows that a downtrend of very high standards is over.
Long Signal is possible when the signals return to positive.
I shared it in order not to forget it.
In addition, we are also under the Long signal effect on the weekly chart :
Here, the Risk / Reward Ratio remains a bit low, and a buy signal in Euro / Dollar parity would feel much safer.
However, if a Buy signal comes at lower timeframes in the Oversold region, it can be evaluated.
It must be watched carefully!
Regards.
EURJPY Long SetupHello, we have moved to some more oversold territories.
The Buy Signal has also observed.
The analysis currently includes a nice Risk / Reward Ratio.
And I think you can try.
But let's not get loaded because if we fail we have the opportunity to try again.
I think this analysis may have less risk in the following parameters:
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1/3
Position Size = %0.05
Stop-Loss : 119.669
Goal : 121.058
Don't forget to look Related Ideas to understand this analysis' Main Structure.
Regards.
Bitcoin low week on week of bitcoin futures anniversaryPrice has come down to test the 6-7k support level, potentially ready to bounce.
Price has made an inverse head and shoulders pattern into this zone.
The right shoulder bounced off the 62 fib retracement from the head.
The head occurred the week of December 15, the anniversary of the creation of bitcoin futures contracts (Price found its high around 20k and low of 3k the week of dec 15 2017 and 2018 respectively).
Volumes are low, indicating a potentially big move coming.
The cftc commitment of traders reports showed institutions to add to their longs and remove some shorts over the holidays. Still net short about 2 to 1, but the shift in positioning could indicate short term bullishness.
Looks like it could be a big year, the halvening is coming up in May and Facebook and Starbucks are planning on releasing their own digital currencies sometime in 2020.
The fear of wwIII and run up in gold may act as catalysts to get price moving very soon as well.
I expect price to come up to challenge resistance around the 10-11k levels. Potentially run further up to all time highs, or get rejected and fall to test the 3-4k support. But 10k is my next stop.
2020 Medium Term Global Markets OverviewHi, I have tried to compile the highlights of my new year as a basis for my future trade and ideas.
I would gladly present it to everyone.
General Markets
In general, the S&P 500 index is in a good rally.
This rally shows that we are currently globally optimistic.
Brent and Crude Oil also seem to have had their share of this rally.
Moreover, the movements of US 10-year Bond Yield, EURUSD and Dollar index are also supporting this movement.
The Japanese Yen is more stable and relatively downward, but positions are unraveling.
These disintegrations may be a clue that a positive trend will be established.
We already know that Gold and Japanese Yen movements are highly correlated on the weekly chart.
Which may support our Gold argument.
The VIX index foreshadows less volatility, but as the index value decreases, the positions also dissolve.
This disintegration is not so much now, but as the disintegration increases, the trend return will be a big sign.
However, we see that Gold, Silver and Iron Ore do not participate in these movements and are quite discounted.
Natural Gas is a less liquid instrument, but there seems to be a significant discount, but the positions have not been sufficiently solved.
Should be followed closely.
Here, Gold, Silver, Iron Ore and Natural Gas in mind, we go down more specifical layers.
Stock Markets
If we look at U.S Dollar based changes of various stock exchanges in the same period, we see that most countries' stock markets benefited from the rise of the S&P 500 Index.
We observe that Australia, Canada, Turkey, China, Singapore,Japan stock exchanges are discounted.
India, Norway, Switzerland, Spain and the Netherlands stock exchanges can also be considered relatively cheap.
In addition, we observe that New Zealand, Denmark, Russia, Sweden, South Africa Stock Exchanges benefited more than the rally.
Forex and Future Markets
When we look at the futures, we can see that the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are discounted compared to other currencies and the increase in their positions is maintained.
The euro wants more serious increases in positions.
When we look at agricultural and metal Futures, COT positions seem to support the increase.
But the cheap ones are among them.Especially Platinum is quite cheap.
G10 Developed Countries
When we look at the currencies and interest rate changes in developed countries, we have nothing to say before.
But there is no anomaly between interest and currencies.
Here, the Norwegian crown is relatively discounted.
The British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar have benefited strongly from the rally.
MSCI Emerging Countries
When we look at developing countries, interest yields did not increase at a time when the Turkish Lira experienced a big loss.
An abnormal situation is observed here.
This makes the Turkish Lira even more fragile.
India is not yet at such risky levels, but it is worth being careful.
Taiwan, Indonesia and Chinese currencies are observed to be cheap.
U.S Important Indices
When we look at the important US indices, it is observed that these indices perform below S&P:
DJI : Dow Jones Industrial Average
NYA : NYSE Composite Index
HGX : PHLX Housing Sector Index
UTY : PHLX Utility Sector Index
XNG : NYSE ARCA Natural Gas
SPGSCI : S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
SPSIOP : S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Select Index
GDM : NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index
DFI : NYSE Arca Defense Index
NWX : NYSE Arca Networking Index
XOI : AMEX Oil Index
NQNACE : Nasdaq Yewno North America Cannabis Economy Index
NOTE : This index is not very well settled, but it is possible to look at the liquid stocks in the field.
Cryptocurrency Market
When we look at the cryptocurrency market, we observe that Tezos is the rising star.
In root Cryptocurrencies, the blockchain data of bitcoin's blockchain shows us that it can move upwards.
But this data needs to be a little more powerful.
More discounted crypto instruments than Bitcoin:
Litecoin , Ethereum , Stellar , BinanceCoin , EOS , Bitcoin Cash and Ripple .
However, since these instruments are more fragile, a buy signal should be expected.
And if Bitcoin will be on Bull market with the strong Blockchain data, these instruments can be expected to rise further than Bitcoin.
But it should be remembered that in case of outside capital or hot money inflow, the first rise will come from the Bitcoin wing.
I wish everyone a happy new year,best regards.