Dow breaks key 42,000 supportThe Dow has broken key support around 42000 as per the hourly chart above. The breakdown could lead to more selling pressure as we near the US presidential election, which is finally weighing on sentiment given how close the polls are. The DJIA has already broken a bullish trend line, so the path of least resistance in the next 24-48 hours is likely to be to the downside.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
#djia#indices
US30 H4 | Overlap resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementUS30 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 40,516.27 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 41,280.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 39,974.82 which is a pullback support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Dow Jones analysis - July 29US stock indices have dropped after a positive open. But the path of least resistance remains to the upside ahead of key events this week including the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday and the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The Dow Jones outperformed global indices with a 1.55% gain on Friday, positioning it well for the upcoming week. In contrast, the Nasdaq is expected to be more volatile, influenced by earnings reports from major tech firms like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple.
Last week's gains for the Dow followed a volatile period marked by disappointing earnings from Tesla and Alphabet, which shifted investor focus to sectors benefitting from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed's dovish stance could lift stock markets, while a hawkish approach might trigger selling, especially in growth stocks and small caps.
Technically, the Dow remains bullish, having recently rebounded above the key 40K level. The main support is at 40K, with interim support seen around the 40,260-40,440 range, which is where the index was testing at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, resistance above today’s earlier high of 40,822 comes in at 41,366, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the drop from the May high.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
US30 H4 | Rising into overlap resistanceUS30 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 39,570.20 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 39,800.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 39,098.66 which is an overlap support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
US30 H4 - Potential BUYSSimple price action:
- Looking for a retest of Support before going LONG
- 35000 is a significant area with multiple retests
- Gap at the 35450 area needs to be filled
US30 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
More details about me in my signature.
US30 has been labeled within a Grand Super-Cycle degree wave V (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the 2009 bottom, when the Recession ended.
Structure - Bullish Impulse
2009 lows and up until Apr 2010 highs - Super-Cycle (I) (green)
Apr 2010 highs and down July 2010 lows - Super-Cycle (II) (green)
July 2010 lows and all the way up until Oct 2018 extreme - Super-Cycle (III) (green)
Oct 2018 extreme and sharp drops until Dec 2018 - Super-Cycle (IV) (green)
Super-Cycle (V) (green)
Pattern - Reversal Motive Wave
Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence within an Ending Diagonal
Current Position
Cycle Wave I (black)
Next expected swing
Bearish sequence in Cycle Wave II (black)
Market Crash Forecast
Support granted at or around the 25000.00 mark and then a huge rally towards the 28500.00 levels, where Grand Super-Cycle V (blue) is expected to complete.
Super-Cycle Waves (A)(B)(C) (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession.
Structure change
Breach of the 25000.00 levels could lead towards a prolonged corrective structure and a Market Crash already starting.
US30 - Indices Forecast - Wave Patterns - Volatility in MayIf you like this idea, please support it with a like. Thank you.
US30 labeled in a Leading Diagonal within Intermediate (1) (blue), with a bearish sequence expected to start unfolding.Diagonal can still perform one more leg on the up-side, however, a breach of the lower trend-line (blue) would invalidate that scenario.
Using history to figure out where the bear is leading us.Going back to my previous previous idea (I keep switching). So the very first one.
The whole world is collapsing!
There are two possibilities. The price will bounce eventually. Either:
* Price bounces then bull market resumes till 30.000 points Dow (and S&P 5000 3800-3900 points),
* Price bounces and then we enter in complacency.
So it should be ok to go long on stocks for a while once this crash is over. Plus january is usually a month when prices go up. Should be fine.
Let's see what could happen.
Here are a few examples of bear markets, 2019 could look like one of those:
Good "classic" ones:
A more complex one:
Soo.....
Here is what I personally believe will happen:
Can't tell how things will play out, can't tell how many capitulations there will be (;>), what I know for sure is:
- I can pinpoint some high probability bounce areas, for trading
- We will know more once the current selloff is over (and we move to complacency)
- Once there is a complacency of 6 months + it gets easy
- For investing, we can buy into capitulation if the prices are low enough, it does not matter if it goes lower later on.
- Active investing = awesome. Buy capitulation, sell some when it spikes, and hold some in, if the price goes lower, buy more, etc :) Each time it dumps buy take money out and use that money to buy more and more. Bagholders hate it, smart money loves it. MORE DISCOUNT!? Waou!
To know if the prices are cheap, just use the price to gdp, it is interesting to invest in the green area:
Here are a few other examples:
To end on a fun note...
These are really simple... just... Do not do something like this...
Dow Jones Industrial tracking Oil and metals lower $YMDJIA is headed lower tracking investors rotation from stocks into 10yr T-bonds. I am seeing the index breaking down towards 22-21k.
Oil has already shed considerably and metals are trading lower too which effects Dow Jones Industrial sectors.
Technically we breached a weekly Insidebar to the downside and traded back which gives us an opportunity to get back into the downtrend on smaller timeframes.
DJI, Daily Chart Analysis 9/5Implications and Outlook
Right after an initial 160 point downfall, the DJI was able to rebound strongly to close the session slightly in the negative area. Ending a volatile trading session, it turned out to be an impressive retrieval from the preliminary squeeze opening. Volumes have been once again light but we then will have lots to trade for the remaining week.
It's not a notable begin to the last month of Q3, therefore, we will be observing closely as we consolidate within all these ranges. Included in this is the continuous demand for American Greenbacks and you can now almost pardon stock indices while they tread water.
DJI Index at this point retreated from its fresh highs and is parked between Key Resistance 26130 and Mean Support 25650 . Trade Selector Signal trend model remains on a short-term bullish, since the weak uptrend is intact, while Index Rally 26260 looming above.