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EUR/USD May Decline as USD Gains on Trump-Related TradesToday, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure due to the strength of the USD, driven by expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and recent political developments. The pair has fallen to a multi-month low, hovering between 1.0685 and 1.0680. With increased volatility around the U.S. political environment—particularly after Donald Trump’s election win—alongside a Double Top pattern on the market chart, a short-term forecast suggests that if EUR/USD breaks below the 1.07 level, it may test support around 1.05. However, if economic indicators in the eurozone improve, the EUR/USD could have potential for a rebound within its current range. The Federal Reserve's rate decisions and any new fiscal policies could further influence the currency pair's direction in the coming days.
by VivianPalacios280824
1
EUR/USD: Potential Decline Amidst US Dollar Strength and Econ...EUR/USD: Potential Decline Amidst US Dollar Strength and Economic Developments As we delve into the forex markets, one of the most watched currency pairs, EUR/USD, is facing mounting pressures that could lead to further depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. A confluence of economic indicators, political shifts, and technical analysis suggests that the outlook for the euro may not be optimistic in the near term. US Dollar: Strength from Political Winds Recent trade activity surrounding the US dollar has gained traction, particularly as the Republican Party appears positioned to exercise substantial influence over the economic agenda. With a focus on implementing expansive tax cuts and trimming government spending, the potential for an invigorated US economy grows. This could lead to increased investor confidence in the greenback, bolstering demand and ultimately driving the EUR/USD pair lower. Moreover, support for the US dollar may be further fortified by upcoming economic announcements. Today's schedule is packed with significant economic data, including the unemployment claims, the Federal Funds Rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and the FOMC Press Conference. Each of these factors will provide insight into the health of the US economy and the potential direction of monetary policy, likely impacting the dollar's trajectory. Impact of Trump Tariffs on Europe The economic climate in Europe could face challenges as the repercussions of Trump-era tariffs continue to reverberate. Concerns regarding sluggish growth rates in key Eurozone economies may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt an even more accommodative stance. Analysts speculate that the ECB could consider cutting interest rates to near zero by 2025 if economic expansion remains tepid. Such a move would further weigh on the euro, making it less attractive to investors compared to a potentially rising dollar. Technical Analysis: Possible Demand Area From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair appears to be approaching another critical demand area. Recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data highlights a contrasting sentiment in the market, with retail traders predominantly holding bearish positions, while "smart money" seems to be accumulating long positions. This divergence can be a strong indicator of upcoming price movements. Analysis of the daily footprint suggests that the price has recently reached and confirmed this demand zone, which may provide a potential reversal opportunity. In line with seasonal forecasting, traders may want to keep an eye on historical patterns that indicate a possible bullish surge. Daily Footprint 6E1! Crafting a Trading Plan Given the myriad of factors at play, traders should align their strategies with their trading rules and risk tolerance. As the economic landscape evolves, the decisions made in the coming days and weeks will be crucial. Monitor Economic Data: Pay close attention to today's economic releases. Positive data could further bolster the USD, while any sign of weakness in the Eurozone could hasten the depreciation of the euro. Watch Technical Indicators: Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels. A sustained move below the current demand area could signal a bearish continuation. Consider Seasonal Trends: Be aware of seasonal patterns that might indicate a potential bullish retracement. Market dynamics can shift quickly, so having a flexible plan is essential. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, the interplay between political developments, economic indicators, and technical signals may create opportunities for discerning traders. Staying informed and adaptable is key as the market navigates through this evolving landscape. Previous Idea closed: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Trump’s Lead Boosts the DollarTrump’s Lead Boosts the Dollar Early results in the U.S. presidential election indicate a lead for the Republican candidate. A potential Trump victory is seen as favourable for the U.S. dollar, based on Donald Trump's plans to: → increase tariffs on key U.S. trading partners; → stimulate domestic business and support small-cap companies. Additionally, the Trump administration may influence the Federal Reserve's rate policies, potentially leading to rate cuts as anticipated earlier. The forex market has responded with a stronger U.S. dollar, especially against the euro. On 21 October, an analysis of the EUR/USD chart indicated potential support from: → a major trendline (shown in blue); → the psychological level of 1.0800. The price indeed rebounded upwards from this area (shown by an arrow), but recent news has sparked a bearish impulse, bringing EUR/USD below the key trendline today. It’s possible this bearish momentum could continue, potentially keeping EUR/USD below the 1.0800 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
EUR/USD is increasing and expected to tend to be higherAdemha greets everyone, Currently, the EUR/USD exchange rate stands at around 1.089 USD per Euro. The outlook ahead leans towards a potential appreciation of the Euro, driven by several factors: Monetary Policy: Although the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a tightening stance, there is anticipation that pressure to raise interest rates will gradually ease if inflation continues to cool. This could weaken the Dollar, allowing the Euro to recover. Eurozone Economy: If economic stimulus measures in Europe or improvements in the service and industrial sectors prove effective, the strength of the Euro could increase. Forecast: The Euro is likely to rise if economic conditions in the Eurozone improve or if the Fed adopts a more dovish policy by 2025, creating a favorable environment for the exchange rate to reach higher levels in the medium to long term.
by Ademha
EURUSD Down Trend ContinuationEURUSD has opened with an upward gap and is moving toward a significant resistance zone within a larger bearish trend. If the market meets resistance here and rejects both the resistance zone and the upper border of the descending channel, it may indicate an impending bearish reversal. Historically, this level has acted as a strong resistance, with price bouncing off it multiple times, which reinforces the likelihood of another rejection. There is potential for a push above last week’s high as an initial move to gather liquidity, followed by a bearish reversal aiming to fill the recent gap. If this scenario unfolds, the target would be the support zone around 1.08510, aligning with the gap-filling objective and providing a solid level for further downside momentum
Short
by RTED_Investing
EURUSD Short term buy inside a Channel Up.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up. The price has falled by -0.55%, same amount as the October 25th-28th pull back. That was a short term buy opportunity that targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci. The MA200 (1h) is supporting just below. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.08750 (Fibonacci 0.786 level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1h) is about to turn oversold. That has been the most effective buy signal on the last 3 lows (October 29th, 28th and 23rd). Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2% (October/2024) +0.3% source: EUROSTAT -Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target. In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%). On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$EUGDPQQ -Europe's GDP (Q3/2024) ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ 0.4% Q3/2024 source: EUROSTAT - The Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to September 2024, the strongest growth rate in two years, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.2% The German economy expanded 0.2%, surprisingly avoiding a recession, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q2. GDP growth also quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2) and the Spanish economy remained robust (0.8% vs 0.8%). In addition, the Portuguese economy grew 0.2%, the same as in Q2 while the GDP in Ireland (2% vs -1%) and Austria (0.3% vs 0%) rebounded and grew faster in Lithuania (1.1% vs 0.3%). On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%. The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
US Dollar Trends:Navigating the Supply Area and Market SentimentAs the trading week began on Monday, the US Dollar (DXY) found itself testing a significant supply area, leading to a period of consolidation within a tight range. This move comes on the heels of disappointing Durable Goods orders data, which has sparked bearish sentiment among traders, prompting a downward shift in the Greenback's value. The Impact of Economic Data The recent Durable Goods orders report fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Such data often serves as a barometer for economic health, influencing traders' decisions and market dynamics. With this disappointing figure, traders have been quick to react, driving the dollar lower as they reassess their positions. Analyzing Market Sentiment The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a telling shift in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions on the dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are beginning to accumulate bearish positions. This divergence in sentiment raises an essential question: is there an impending reversal in the dollar's trend? Timing the Market Timing becomes crucial in a market characterized by conflicting signals. While the COT report indicates a potential shift, it’s essential to identify the right entry points. Many analysts believe the DXY could experience another bullish impulse before any significant decline materializes. This potential upward movement may serve to "trap" sellers who have positioned themselves in anticipation of a downturn. Seasonal Patterns and Technical Analysis Adding to the complexity of this scenario is the emergence of a seasonal bearish pattern indicated by forecasters. Seasonal trends often play a critical role in currency movements, and traders must remain vigilant to these patterns when planning their strategies. In conjunction with this seasonal insight, technical analysis reveals a rectangle pattern on the chart, which suggests a defined range of support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to look for entry opportunities within this range, where the likelihood of a price breakout is heightened. Conclusion In conclusion, as the US Dollar navigates this crucial supply area amidst mixed signals from market participants, traders must approach their strategies with caution. Monitoring economic indicators, understanding market sentiment shifts, and analyzing technical patterns will be pivotal in making informed trading decisions. The current environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and identifying the right entry point could be the key to capitalizing on potential market movements. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out. What are your thoughts on the current market conditions, and where do you see the DXY heading next?
TVC:DXY
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: First 1H Golden Cross formed in 6 weeks.EURUSD may be marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.367, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 65.014) but on 1H it is cruising to the RSI overbought level as it formed the first 1H Golden Cross since September 15th. Technically it is a bullish pattern but short term the price has to overcome the S1 level (just hit it) and an almost overbought 4H RSI. This may give you the last opportunity to buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.10385), which has been the minimum target on every 1H Golden Cross since August. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURUSD Hits Demand Zone, Potential for an Up CorrectionEURUSD has reached a demand zone that previously spurred a rally in August. The recent fake breakout at the 1.07800 level suggests that the market may be primed for a pullback, especially as DXY is also testing a key resistance. On the 4H timeframe, a bullish divergence has formed, indicating a potential correction to the upside. If this demand zone holds and the divergence plays out, the market could retrace toward the next resistance zone around 1.09190 as it corrects from the recent overextension
Long
by RTED_Investing
Market Analysis: EUR/USD DivesMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dives EUR/USD declined from the 1.0880 resistance and corrected gains. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0850 support zone. - There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.0805 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0880 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0850 support zone against the US Dollar. The pair declined below 1.0820 and tested the 1.0760 zone. A low was formed near 1.0761 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.0800 level. However, the bears were active near 1.0840 and the pair started another decline. There was a move below the 1.0820 level. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the 1.0761 swing low to the 1.0839 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.0805. The pair is now trading below 1.0800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0805 level. The next key resistance is at 1.0840. The main resistance is near the 1.0870 level. A clear move above the 1.0870 level could send the pair toward the 1.0950 resistance. An upside break above 1.0950 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0980. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0780 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the 1.0761 swing low to the 1.0839 high. The next key support is at 1.0760. If there is a downside break below 1.0760, the pair could drop toward 1.0720. The next support is near 1.0650, below which the pair could start a major decline. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD hit the MA50 (4h) after 1 month. Buy if it breaks.EURUSD hit today its MA50 (4h) for the first time since September 30th. The pattern remains a Channel Down though, so the trend remains bearish unless a (4h) candle closes above the MA50. Trading Plan: 1. Buy after a (4h) candle closes above the MA50. Targets: 1. 1.09500 (Resistance 1). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is already on a bullish reversal and a Higher High. If the MA supports, it will be an extra bullish signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
EUR/USD resumes lowsAfter bouncing off the trend line that has been in place since October 2023, around 1.0760, the selling seems to have resumed in the EUR/USD today. Price has found resistance right off the 1.0835-40 region. This area has provided some support at the back end of last week, before giving way earlier this week. Once support, it has turned into resistance. From here, the EUR/USD could revisit the trend line and the August low of 1.0777, with the subsequent bearish target being around 1.0700. The dollar's strong rally in recent weeks and the simultaneous climb in bond yields are clear headwinds for the EUR/USD. Next week is a busy one for the economic calendar with lots of US economic data, and lots of major company earnings all to come ahead of the November 5 US Presidential election in the following week. It is unlikely that the dollar will sell-off ahead of the election, meaning the pressure is likely to remain on the EUR/USD in the week ahead. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
1
EURUSD Bearish momentumEURUSD has bounced off the resistance level and has been in a bearish trend since the start of October, marking three consecutive bearish weeks. It's likely that the price will pull back toward the resistance zone before resuming its downward movement. If the price pulls back against the main trend, this could result in a classic correction, followed by trend continuation. The market may form a complex pullback toward the resistance area near 1.0900 and the downward trendline, after which we could see a sell-off as the bearish momentum continues. The target is the support level around 1.07920
Short
by RTED_Investing
EUR/USD Extends Decline Amid USD Strength and Weak Eurozone DataThe EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, trading near fresh multi-week lows around the 1.0769 mark during Wednesday’s mid-European session. This decline reflects the ongoing strength of the US Dollar, fueled by a gloomy market sentiment and growing concerns surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure due to lackluster local macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that the Eurozone's economic challenges persist into the final quarter of the year. Factors Driving the EUR/USD Decline 1. US Dollar Strength The US Dollar remains dominant, driven by risk aversion as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst increasing political uncertainty in the US. The potential impact of the presidential election has added to market jitters, with investors favoring the Greenback for its perceived stability. Additionally, strong US economic data has reinforced the USD's bullish sentiment, suggesting that the US economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro and pushes the EUR/USD lower. 2. Weak Eurozone Macro Data The Euro struggles to gain traction, weighed down by recent disappointing economic figures from the Eurozone. The latest data indicates ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, suggesting that the region's economic recovery may be faltering. Persistent economic sluggishness in major Eurozone economies, like Germany and France, has dampened confidence in the Euro, as investors remain cautious about the currency's short-term prospects. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Approaches Key Demand Zone As anticipated in our previous forecast, the EUR/USD has bypassed an intermediate demand zone and is now approaching a more robust support area at the lower level. Here are the key factors at play: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bearish on the Euro, while institutional investors (often referred to as “smart money”) have begun to move in the opposite direction, accumulating long positions. This shift in positioning hints at a potential turnaround as the EUR/USD nears significant demand levels. DXY Overbought Condition: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is currently in overbought territory. This condition suggests that the USD rally could be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a EUR/USD rebound. The technical overextension of the DXY aligns with the prospect of a retracement, providing additional support for the Euro at the upcoming demand area. Buy Limit Setup: With the EUR/USD nearing a critical demand zone, we are considering placing a buy limit order. This approach aims to capitalize on a potential reversal at the lower demand area, which is supported by both technical indicators and the shifting COT report dynamics. Trading Strategy: Buy Limit on Demand Area Given the current conditions, a buy limit order near the next demand area presents a favorable risk-reward setup. Here’s how we’re approaching this potential trade: Entry: Set a buy limit order just above the upcoming demand zone, targeting a potential rebound in the EUR/USD pair. Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk in case of a continued slide. Target: Aim for a near-term bounce back toward resistance levels, aligning with potential DXY weakness and institutional positioning. Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism for a EUR/USD Rebound While the EUR/USD remains under pressure due to the prevailing USD strength and weak Eurozone data, technical factors and shifting market positioning suggest a potential short-term reversal. As the pair approaches a critical demand zone, a carefully placed buy limit order could offer a promising entry opportunity. With political uncertainty in the US and a potentially overbought USD, traders should monitor upcoming data releases and market sentiment closely, as these factors could influence the timing and magnitude of a possible EUR/USD bounce. As always, risk management is crucial, especially in a volatile environment shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
BEARS KEEPS A TIGHT GRIP ON EU BULLS!Sellers are having a swell time violating buy zones this week, while we expected shorts, we had hoped to see a potential retracement move give us a chance to enter long (counter-trend/high-risk) but that has not happened. While price did bounced of this level a few times showing bullish reactions, they were insufficient to determine a shift in sentiment, now attention has shifted to this weekly FVG where we begin to watch for clear bullish reaction from the 4hr TF up to the daily TF . We'll keep fingers crossed until a reversal pattern prints!
Long
by LloydFX