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$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024. Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets. A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market. On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term. Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269 Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231 The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Short
by Bentradegold
GBP/USD: Pound Soars Following Surprising CPI ReportOn Wednesday, the Pound Sterling (GBP) saw a significant surge against most currencies following the release of unexpected inflation data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that annual inflation rose to 2.3% in October, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 2.2% and a notable increase from September's 1.7%. Month-over-month, the headline inflation climbed by 0.6%, outpacing the anticipated 0.5% and recovering from a stagnant September. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes fluctuating components such as food, energy, and tobacco, registered a growth of 3.3%. This figure exceeds the previous month's reading of 3.2% and defies economists' predictions of a decline to 3.1%. Services inflation—a key metric monitored by Bank of England (BoE) policymakers—also picked up, rising to 5% from the earlier figure of 4.9%. This uptick in price pressures may prompt traders to rethink their expectations regarding interest rate cuts in the upcoming BoE meeting scheduled for December. From a technical analysis perspective, the price action remains within a bullish demand zone, suggesting a strong likelihood of further appreciation in the value of the Pound. Overall, indications point towards a potential increase in the Pound Sterling's value moving forward. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Conquered 250 Pips, What's Next in the Wave? Swingers!Let's keep it simple, As Always! As of today, GBP/USD has delivered a solid 250-pip move following our analysis shared on October 9th, 2024. Our forecasted move materialized as expected, with the pair continuing its upward momentum after a brief consolidation phase. For those who took the trade, congratulations on securing some solid profits! Now, the question on everyone's mind is, what's next for GBP/USD? Let’s break down the structure and identify the potential move within the wave. Keep an eye on price action around these levels for the next wave. A pullback to 1.2300 could offer an entry for the next rally. Stay cautious and wait for confirmation before jumping in. Let's see how the market unfolds over the coming sessions. -Zak Happy Trading! 🔥
by blamezak
GBPUSD: Buy signal at the bottom of the Rising Wedge.GBPUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.906, MACD = -0.012, ADX = 45.336) as it almost reached the HL trendline of the Rising Wedge. The technical bottom should start forming now and with the RSI hitting the oversold limit (30.000) on Friday, we can claim that there is a significant upside behind this with limited risk. The similar bottom of October 3rd 2023 targeted initially the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That is our target this time also (TP = 1.03080). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Market Analysis: GBP/USD NosedivesMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Nosedives GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.2750 zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound started a major decline from the 1.3000 resistance zone. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2650 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.3000 resistance zone. The British Pound started a downside correction and traded below the 1.2850 support zone against the US Dollar. The pair even traded below 1.2700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2600 level. A low was formed at 1.2597 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3009 swing high to the 1.2597 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near a key bearish trend line at 1.2650. The first major resistance is near the 1.2695 zone. The main hurdle sits at 1.2800 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3009 swing high to the 1.2597 low. A close above the 1.2800 resistance might spark a steady upward move. The next major resistance is near the 1.2880 zone. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.3000 resistance in the near term. Initial support on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.2600. The next major support sits at 1.2550, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2420. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
GBPUSD Start thinking of buying. Will find support soon.The GBPUSD pair couldn't have given us a better sell signal last time we looked into it (October 09, see chart below) as it broke first below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) then the Bullish Megaphone and is very close to our 1.2550 Target: We are approaching the stage where selling becomes far riskier than buying as the pair is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the September - October 2023 fractal (that has been the basis of our previous sell strategy), formed the bottom and initiated a Channel Up to the (orange) 0.618 Fib. Even the 1D MACD indicates that we are probably a few days before this bottom is formed and will be confirmed with a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are prepared to take this long and target 1.3100 (the 0.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
A Weaker pound? 1. Baseline Scenario - Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The Bank of England has cut rates by 25bps to 4.75%, with expectations of further cuts due to slowing inflation. Markets are pricing in two 25bps cuts by the end of 2025 with a 92% chance of a third 25bps cut, dispite the Labour Government's fiscal policy expected to be reflationary. There is also a 15% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December. - Short Term Sentiment Bias : Neutral. The pound is moving flat on an index level, indicating no strong short-term sentiment driving the price. 2. Risk Event Baseline - Event Description : Upcoming UK GDP data releases. - Monthly GDP (m/m) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Preliminary GDP (q/q) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.5%). - Market Expectations : Markets are anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, with the preliminary GDP forecast significantly lower than the previous quarter. 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Negative Surprise: - Plan: If GDP data misses forecasts, reinforce bearish positions on GBP pairs. A weaker-than-expected GDP print could act as a catalyst for further pound selling, aligning with the dovish macro outlook and expectations of additional rate cuts.
Short
by Midas_Macro
1
GBPUSD - Macro Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GBPUSD has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in green. Currently, GBPUSD is in a correction phase, trading within the falling red channel. Moreover, the 1.255 - 1.6 zone is a strong support 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower green trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As GBPUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
GBP/USD Chart Analysis: Bears Apply Pressure to Key SupportGBP/USD Chart Analysis: Bears Apply Pressure to Key Support According to ICE data, the U.S. Dollar Index futures have reached highs last seen in early July 2024. The dollar’s strength is attributed, in part, to anticipated economic stimulus measures outlined by the newly elected President Donald Trump during his campaign. This has put pressure on other currencies paired with the dollar. Currently, the British pound is trading near 1.28400, close to a three-month low. Today’s technical analysis of the 4-hour GBP/USD chart reveals: → long-term price fluctuations have shaped an upward channel since May; → the pair is near a key support level at the lower boundary of this channel; → a downtrend channel (in red) has formed since early October, highlighting recent bearish control; → the ATR indicator is at an annual high, indicating heightened volatility. Key economic events are on the horizon: → UK labour market data on Tuesday at 10:00 (GMT+3), → U.S. CPI figures on Wednesday at 16:30 (GMT+3), → speeches by the Fed and Bank of England heads on Thursday. With these events approaching, traders may anticipate continued wide fluctuations around the lower boundary of the upward channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
GBP/USD tests key 1.30 handle ahead of FOMCThe pound rallied following the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates earlier. Governor Bailey refrained from defining what “gradual” would mean for the pace of future cuts. The GBP/USD rally was aided by a sharp drop in the US dollar. The focus is now turning to the FOMC rate decision, which means the greenback could change course again. The Bank of England lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, aligning with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the cut, as anticipated. However, the BoE maintains it can’t lower rates “too quickly or by too much,” opting instead for a more measured approach. The central bank sees a gradual easing as appropriate, keeping to its September guidance on rates. The recent budget is expected to lift inflation slightly, adding around 0.5% to CPI at its peak according to the BoE —just above the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Like the OBR, the BoE isn’t expecting significant economic growth from this budget. As it stands, the Bank intends to continue cutting rates gradually over the coming months. This should keep the GBP under pressure. Will the GBP/USD now hold below the key 1.30 handle or break above it? What it does here will determine the near-term direction. All eyes are on the Fed Chair Powell. The Fed could shed light on the central bank’s next steps. Markets are fully expecting a 25-basis-point reduction. Chair Powell may steer clear of any commitment to a rapid easing cycle, especially if he believes Trump’s policies could drive inflation. Any indication of hawkishness could boost bond yields further, which could give the dollar another boost. Even though rate expectations have shifted, significant changes in market trends are unlikely in the immediate term. However, over the coming quarters, rising US yields could strengthen the dollar, adding pressure on other economies while supporting the US market’s broader trend. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
GBP/USD Strengthens Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculations and U.S. DataOn Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair exhibited a notable rise against its major counterparts, driven by a reassessment among traders regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) for the remainder of the year. Market sentiment has shifted as analysts speculate that the BoE is poised to implement a rate reduction in one of its forthcoming meetings in November or December. According to recent insights from Reuters, traders are now factoring in an 80% likelihood that the BoE will lower its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, bringing them down to 4.75%. This potential rate cut comes amidst a backdrop of economic considerations that have traders on alert, particularly with the release of key U.S. employment figures today. The market will focus on the USD Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month data, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These indicators are critical and are expected to bring strong volatility to the markets. Current forecasts suggest a headwind for the USD, which could concurrently bolster the GBP against the euro and impact other pairs correlated with the DXY. From a technical analysis perspective, GBP/USD has recently approached a significant demand area, which could serve as a springboard for upward movement. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reflects a bearish sentiment among retail traders, indicating a broader market consensus that may be shifting. In contrast, "smart money"—institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions, potentially signaling a bullish outlook. Adding another layer of complexity are seasonal trends, which historically suggest that the GBP/USD pair could be on the brink of a new bullish rally. Traders are now posed with a critical question: is the current price level the optimal entry point for long positions, or should they await a potential dip to a lower demand zone before committing their capital? The outcome of today’s economic data releases will likely play a pivotal role in determining the short-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Should the U.S. data disappoint, it may further sway sentiment toward the pound, while strong U.S. figures could dampen enthusiasm for the GBP, sparking further discussions around additional BoE rate cuts as the year draws to a close. In conclusion, the interplay between central bank policies, economic data, and market sentiment is creating an intricate landscape for traders navigating the GBP/USD pair. With potential rate cuts on the horizon for the BoE and significant U.S. economic indicators set to be released, volatility is inevitable and positions are likely to adjust in response to these developments. As the trading day unfolds, all eyes will remain glued to the charts and economic reports, seeking clarity and direction in what promises to be a dynamic session. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/SD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days. The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance. The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern. As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone. All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs. Weekly Chart Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape. In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th. Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million. Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon. Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators. Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6B1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD Buy Opportunity from SupportGBPUSD recently broke below its previous support level, yet it has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern near the psychological level of 1.3000. This level has shown resilience as the market decelerated while approaching it, forming a bullish divergence that strengthens the case for a rebound. The price has also bounced off the channel boundary and has now closed above the 1.3000 mark, showing higher lows, indicating building bullish momentum. Additionally, with the DXY forming a triple top at its resistance zone, there’s potential for a downward correction in the dollar, which could further support a GBPUSD rally. The target is the resistance zone around 1.3110
Long
by RTED_Investing
1