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AUDJPY - FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDJPY AUDJPY is going down a bit due to MARKET RISK OFF in the previous days. But even now we see that the MARKET is somewhat MARKET RISK ON. We expect AUDJPY to RETRACE to higher resistance. Anyway, if AUDJPY goes DOWNSIDE again, VIX should go up, JPY should go up, and STOCKS should go down. The dollar should continue to strengthen in this way. If MARKET RISK is ON, you can definitely BUY at 96.63 LEVEL. Currently, the market risk is off. But somehow it may go down to 91.543 LEVEL before going UP. After that, AUDJPY may go up to 96.63 LEVEL. To buy AUDJPY, VIX must be DOWN and SNP500 must be UP. Further, the TREND LINE should be BREAK. And COMMODITIES should definitely be UP. We are waiting for the change in the above mentioned MARKETS. If the dollar is strengthened by the FED, MARKETS RISK should be off. Then AUDJPY may become LONG TERM SELL after JPY STRONG.
by benny_marshall
Bitcoin Ultimatum - It Must Breakout Or It Will Surely BreakdownHello Traders, Here is my analysis for Bitcoin. Let me start by saying that BTC is in a very precarious position. Heres why... 1) It's just barely above major support at $17.6K - If (most likely when) it breaks, there is no doubt that we will see massive capitulation. Potentially seeing a double digit % move down the day it breaks. 2) The descending trendline connecting the November highs to now will act as major resistance. - BTC needs to break this trendline to have any hopes of a large rally anytime soon. The reason that this puts Bitcoin in a precarious position is because it is trading in a larger wedge where both the descending trendline and $17.6K major support will soon converge. *There can only be one of two outcomes in this situation: 1) Either we breakout 2) Or we breakdown What do I think will happen? - First off, I think regardless of whether we breakout or breakdown, BTC has not bottomed and will hit at a minimum $12K, but probably more like $8K. - I think we could see a short term rally this week, potentially taking BTC up to the trendline to test it. - Given the strong Bearish climate and weaker relative strength in BTC, I think it's unlikely that BTC breaks out of the trendline and will most likely get rejected from it. What happens if BTC breaks the trendline? Won't that be Bullish? - Yes, it would be bullish but for the short term. - BTC would likely rally after breaking the trendline, probably back up to about $24K. - But being as we're in a bear market, eventually the bears would take back control of BTC and short it into oblivion, back below support at $17.6K and lower. ***If BTC breaks out of the trendline, don't get fooled into thinking that the Bear market is over and BTC has put in a bottom. Smart money will be looking to trap traders in a scenario like this. Why is this important? - Essentially, no matter what, I'm bearish on BTC. - This means that I believe there is a very high probability that ultimately BTC will trend much much lower. - I'm preparing my shorts, I'm planning my trades, and I'm looking for the ideal entry for a short position which I will ride out below the $17.6K support. Be Beary cautious in this type of market environment! Thats it for this BTC post, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
1
AMD + The Power Of Confluence - Measured Move & Target LevelsHello Traders, here is my analysis for AMD. - I apologize for the crammed chart, I did the best I could to keep the chart as simple yet detailed as possible. - Onto the analysis... First off, if you're a new trader, this chart is an example of what the planning process for a swing trade could look like. Of course there are many different strategies, but for me this is the process I go through when planning a trade. ***Before I start with the breakdown, I want to point out how amazing TA can be: If you look at the chart, at the ("4)Bounce/Rally Target Level") at $85.50. That target was taken from finding the average % gain of the prior 3 bounces (36.76%) and projected it from $62 (Probable bottom). Whats so amazing is that the $85.50 level is also key resistance and directly at the descending trendline. - This amount of confluence tells me that there is a high probability that this move could play out in a similar fashion. Like many other charts, AMD is overdue for a bounce... The questions that need to be answered are: 1) What level do I think it will bounce from? 2) What is the potential profit target? 3) Where do I enter positions? 1) "Where do I think it will bounce from?" - To answer this, I used technical analysis to come up with the most probable level for a bottom. - $62 is where I believe AMD is most likely to bounce from. *As you can see AMD is oversold, this tells me that the sellers are likely becoming exhausted and will eventually stop selling. *It looks as though AMD may make a measured move (measure the prior high to swing low = 25.63% - Project 25.63% from the swing high at $85.5 = $62) *The measured move to $62 also happens to be a Gap Fill level which adds confluence to this potential target and adds confidence to this level being a bottom. 2) "What is the potential profit target?" - The potential profit target for a bounce is $85.50 (This is from being projected off $62) *I took the averages of the prior three bounces (36.76%) and projected it from the "probable bounce level" 3) "Where do I enter positions?" - First off, you never want to try and time the bottom for one entry. It's rare that anyone consistently can time bottoms. - More often than not you'll miss entries this way. *What you want to do is figure out where you think price will likely bounce from, in this case $62 and enter multiple positions at key support levels on the way down. *As you can see I've labeled Entries 1-3 on the chart. *Enter small positions (start with 1% - 2% of your portfolio) *You never want to be in a position where one trade can wipe you out. *Entering large positions is not trading, it's gambling. You increase the risk to a point where the probabilities are no longer in your favor. *Entering small positions ensures stability and longevity as a trader. That's it, I know it was long but I hope that this was informative. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by natef1
8
ASX Trades - AVL Long IdeaDisclaimer: I am a new trader, practicing my analysis and methodology and using these ideas to document and review my progress. All feedback is welcome! Price has been in a tight consolidation for several weeks now, but has remained above the 200EMA since breaking above it in late July. A clear base has formed at the 0.041 level during this consolidation period. Trade idea will be validated by an increase in buying volume, causing a breakout above the consolidation pattern. If price retests and confirms the 0.050 level as support, and RSI is above 50, then I will enter the trade. Initial stop loss will be below the pattern, and targets will be the previous monthly open prices (the dotted blue lines). The 9EMA will act as a trailing stop when/if the trade is active. This is a swing trade, which I will hold for 1-3 weeks depending on the market's movements.
ASX:AVLLong
by Amjoinery
QQQ- Bullish & Bearish Signals / Potential Trade SetupsHello Trader, here is my analysis for the QQQ. This week is a big week with the FED meeting on Wednesday. Pay close attention to price action leading up to that event. - If price comes into a key level the prior day, there is the potential for another large sell-off if institutions don't like what they hear. - It's also possible that we don't see much action until Wednesday as trades may want to wait and hear what the FED has to say. Onto the analysis... I've labeled the key factors that the Bulls will have to overcome if they want to have a shot at taking back control. - Right now the Bears have full control, especially considering that we have 2 lower highs in this current trend and have yet to see the bulls make a higher low. KEY LEVEL TO WATCH $293 is currently the most important level. If the Bulls can't take price above that level, they are in big trouble. - Think of it like this... Above $293 = Bullish. Below $293 = Bearish Potential Trade Setups To Watch For Shorts - If the Bulls can take price above $293, I will be scouting for short positions at key levels. - It's to early to say what that is because there are a lot of factors that come into play when planning trades, however the descending trendline, ,moving averages, and prior pivot high at $310 are all levels I'm keeping an eye on for a short. Longs - $269 is the main level I'm keeping an eye on for a potential long at the moment. There are several things that would have to happen first for me to take a trade at that level, primarily the speed at which price comes into that level. I will keep everyone update on this chart if a good trade entry arises. Remember, the QQQ is currently in a downtrend and the Bears have control. If the Bulls are going to take control there are many things that must happen first. As a trader looking at this chart, we know that there is a higher probability of trend continuation to the downside until the Bulls take back key levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by natef1
5
Tesla - Bullish And Bearish Signals To Watch For.Hello Traders, here is my analysis for Tesla. Listed on the chart are the Bullish and Bearish signals that I will be watching for. - At the moment, a trade setup has not formed that I would be interested in, however I am keeping an eye on the price action to see if pattern forms that I can play. Price is either going to breakout and Bulls will take price higher... Or the Bears are going to take control and drive prices lower... - Either way, I've listed the signals that I'll be watching to give me a clue as to whether the Bulls or bears will take control. What trade Setups am I looking for? If price trends down but has not yet broken the ascending trendline - - Im looking for a potential entry long off the ascending trendline. (I want to see price hold this trendline first) - I will also be looking for oversold conditions on the lower time frame RSI - I will be looking for lower time frame patterns or entries. - If the trendline holds, I see oversold conditions, and an entry pattern develops = I will potentially take this trade. If price breaks down below ascending trendline - - I will be looking for a potential Double Bottom long entry. - I will need to see similar signals as listed above, entry pattern, oversold conditions, the support level must hold. - It also depends on how quickly price comes into this level, the quicker it falls to this level, the better the odds of a bounce. If price breaks resistance and rallies - - I will be looking for potential short entries when price is way overextended and at key resistance levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
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NASDAQ:TSLA
by natef1
19
BTC - Levels To Watch ForHello Traders, Here is a quick update on BTC Since my post yesterday, BTC broke lower to the Major Support level at $19.5K. If this level fails that will be very Bearish for BTC. If the Bulls can hold and break above this level, then that is a strong signal for the Bulls and they will have temporary control. However, If the Bears can break price below this level, the Bears will clearly have control. This is an important level to keep an eye on. If the Bulls take control we can potentially expect a rally in the near term. If the Bears take control we can expect lower levels, possibly back to range lows in the coming weeks. Also, just a bit of quick education... The more times that price hits a level, the weaker it gets. - Think of it like someone trying to kick a door down, the more times they kick the door the weaker it gets, until eventually, it breaks. Its the same thing with support and resistance levels. - As you can see, the $19.5K level has been hit several times, this tells me that its currently in a weaker state and will be harder for the bulls to defend. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them. Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns... 9-19: Inside/BreakAway 9-20: BreakAway 9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion) 9-22: Inside/BreakAway 9-23: Momentum Rally *9-24: RARE - Major Reversal *9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown201 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish) * = weekend I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week. But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend. The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH. Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings. We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity. Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support. The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision. Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel. Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening. Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday. After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes. News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends. Stay tuned.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY Cycle Patterns UpdateThis weekend, I spent quite a bit of time studying various rare and unique cycle patterns within my database. Because of this new research, I can share with you the new WEEKEND trigger which setup last weekend. I suspect a bullish GAP will setup early this week with price trending substantially downward on Monday. Tuesday should represent another attempt at a top/peak in price (possibly resulting in some wild volatility Monday/Tuesday). Wednesday will represent a Reversal/Rally day - possibly extending price up into a BULL TRAP for investors. Thursday is a N/A Day - meaning I don't have any confirmed Cycle Pattern trigger for that day. Friday will be another Top/Resistance day - likely seeing the markets establish a peak in price (again) and trending downward. Headed into the Fed week and knowing traders will be preparing for future headwinds related to futures/options expiration, this week could be full of very volatile price action. I suspect Monday/Tuesday will set the RANGE for the week and the rest of the week will trade somewhat sideways. Follow my research. These cycle patterns have been very accurate so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
BAT - CRYPTO MOVING NICELY TO THE PATTERNSBINANCE:BATUSDT has had a nice move down from the larger Patterns on Sept 5th now we are looking for more weakness down toward 0.30 to complete this ABCD pattern. If we look at todays AI there is a CIT Window at 13:00 this afternoon. If we could get one more rally up towards 0.33-0.3350 that would set up a sell signal for a minimum move back down to 0.3200. A nice one to keep an eye on as its moving nicely to the patterns I trade. I hope this helps. Enjoy the day. 👍👍
Short
by L_F