Understanding the Renko Bricks (Educational Article)Today we are going to study a chart which is called a Renko chart. Renko chart is a chart which is typically used to study price movement. I use Renko chart many times to determine supports and resistnace. I find it easy and accurate way of determining supports and resistances. The word Renko is derived from Japanese word renga.
Renga means brick. As you can see in the chart below it shows a kind of Brick formation. The brick size is determined wither by the user and mostly it depends of typical average movement on the stock historically.
A new brick is formed once the price moves upwards on downwards in the same proportion or ratio of the typical brick. New brick is only added post the price moves in that particular proportion. A new brick might not be added in months if the price movement is not as per the ratio. At the same time a new brick might be added in a day or few bricks in a week is price moves accordingly.
We will try to understand this concept further by looking at the chart in the post. We have used the chart of Reliance industries to understand this concept and concept only. Please do not consider this buy or sell call for the stock. As you can see in the above chart I have used a combination of RSI, EMA (50 and 200 days) and Bollinger band strategy. RSI support for Reliance is at 35.89 with current RSI at 40.13. Bollinger band suggests that support might be round the corner for the stock. The peaks from previous tops are used to find out further supports and resistances. Mid Bollinger band level and Bollinger band top level coincide with other pervious tops making them tough resistance when the price moves upwards. Mother line EMA is a resistance now and Father line EMA support is far away. All these factors indicate the support zones for the stock to be around 2736, 2657, 2601 and 2561 in the near term. Resistance for Reliance seem to be at 2814, 2972, 3006, 3048 and 3202 levels. Let me give a disclaimer again. The above data is for analysis purpose and to understand Bollinger band, RSI, effect of EMA and Renko Bricks only. Please do not trade based on the information provided here as it is just for understanding Renko charts.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
#rsi
I have bought AXS From the AXSUSDT chart, it shows:
Market Trend: The chart is currently in a clear downtrend along the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) line, with the 100-day EMA and 200-day EMA still above the price chart, indicating strong resistance.
Important Support: The support area around 4.145 USD has been tested several times. If the price breaks this support level, it may see a continued correction to the 3.843 USD and 3.831 USD areas, which were previously rebounded.
Stochastic RSI: It is in the oversold zone (below 20), indicating that the market may have a chance to recover in the short term due to weaker selling pressure, but other indicators should confirm it.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI value at 40.61 is still in the downtrend zone. If the RSI value increases and crosses the 50 line, it may be a sign that the price has a chance to return to the uptrend.
Trading Volume: Trading volume has decreased during the price correction, which may indicate that selling pressure is starting to weaken. Or there are fewer sellers
Entry Recommendation:
Buying at the support level of 4.145 USD should consider waiting for confirmation from Stochastic RSI that there is a reversal from the oversold zone and see if the RSI value can cut through the 50 line. If so, it may be a good time to buy.
Set the stop loss below the important support level at around 4.00 USD to hedge the risk if the price falls below the support level.
Bullish Alert: Tata Technologies|Strong Swing Trade Potential!📈 Bullish Alert: Tata Technologies Ltd. Shows Strong Swing Trade Potential! 🚀
Stock Analysis Report
Stock Name : Tata Technologies Ltd.
Timeframe: Daily
Current Market Price (CMP) : ₹1068
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Trade Type
• Trade Type: Swing Trade
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Technical Analysis
1. Trendline Breakout:
The stock has recently broken above a key trendline with increased volume, indicating a strong bullish signal.
Following the breakout, the stock has successfully retested the trendline, further
validating the upward momentum.
2. Indicators:
MACD: Buy signal confirmed.
Oscillator: Buy signal confirmed.
3. Moving Averages:
The price is currently trading above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend.
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Target Prices
• T-1: ₹1115
• T-2: ₹1150
• T-3: ₹1180
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Stop Loss
• SL: ₹1045
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Summary : Tata Technologies Ltd. presents a strong swing trade opportunity. The stock exhibits a bullish trend supported by a recent trendline breakout, successful retest, and positive signals from key technical indicators. With the price trading above significant moving averages, potential target prices are set at ₹1115, ₹1150, and ₹1180, while a stop loss is recommended at ₹1045 to manage downside risk.
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Disclaimer : " Please do not base your trades solely on the ideas mentioned above. Conduct your own research before making any trading decisions. We are not responsible for any financial losses that may result from applying this study or from taking any early entry or exit in trades. "
SPY regains but still in bearish zoneSPY bounces back after Friday sell off, still inside downward trend
comparing against 1h and 2h timeframe we see that ema remains below sma for both
This also holds true for RSI between 1 and 2h. RSI remains remains below sma
stock remains inside the downward trend after bounce back
SPY still shows signs of bearishness and more selling to come. Not looking like we are out of the woods yet.
SPY holds steady while QQQ sells offDuring the past week, SPY and QQQ have diverged in their paths
QQQ slowly and steadily sold off
SPY traded flat during that time
This indicates that the sell off in QQQ was primarily tech driven and did not spread to the rest of the industries
other industries look to be holding stable
QQQ shows a reversal is nearQQQ experienced a number of turning points showing increased weakness in the sell off we have been seeing over the past week.
False breakout to the upside
Strong growth in volume confirming the breakout direction
Hammer candle on close indicating reversal maybe coming after later day retracement
RSI breaks above SMA line for first time
This change in direction we have seen today with a new interest from the bulls shows that ever selling we experience going forward will likely be tested by the bulls again.
For trend traders I would recommend sitting on the side lines until we see a stronger trend form either to the up or down side. This current down trend is showing weakness.
Monthly Chart v. Weekly Chart May Indicate TroubleSince every dollar of price action is raising concern in either direction, let’s take an in-depth look at what’s happening with the price of Bitcoin.
On the weekly chart (left), we can see the RSI is just starting to pivot and we can see the Stochastic RSI will have a cross in the coming weeks, usually indicating an uptrend. Price action has been within the same range for about three months, building healthy market structure. Then we get to the monthly chart.
The monthly chart (right) is showing slowed momentum. We can see in the Stochastic RSI that the orange line is on top of the blue line – usually a bearish indication. This has me a bit concerned and considering how we’ve had ranged price action and are dropping from an RSI of around 80, it may be a warning sign of what's to come.
Take a look at the green arrows on the monthly chart. Every time the purple line crosses above the yellow line, we see a price rally. Now look at the red arrows. When we see the purple line cross below the yellow line, price falls. The first red arrow you see, that was about a 70% drop. The second red arrow you see was about a 52% drop from the next pivot in momentum and a total of a 73% drop once RSI bottomed.
This is when you want to have your strategy in place for if the weekly chart champions the monthly chart or if we do in fact have that RSI monthly purple line cross below the yellow and we go lower. Be ready for whatever the case may be! I'm thinking it's probable we may see a 50% drop before seeing all-time highs and the rally we've all been waiting for.
TOTAL2 - Looking at the RSI I expect a continuation pattern on the Weekly RSI with the circle being the comparable point in the bull run.
The RSI shows a large W pattern and we are experiencing the bullish right arm of the W
I think we are bullish until next year easily
This is the altcoin market cap
DON'T FALL FOR IT!! Can you tell me what's next?Every #Bitcoin consolidation since the bottom has had 3 things in common...
1. Each time, it has created a "retail" pattern, such as a wedge.
2. The pattern seemed to #breakout (signaling traders to go long and becoming trapped), only to realize the move as a #fake-out back into the pattern.
3. Then, there seems to be a continuation to the breakdown of the pattern (liquidating late longs and signal traders to go short and becoming trapped), only to deviate back into the pattern just before a massive move to the upside (liquidating the late shorts).
This false move to the downside, so far, has also always correlated to the bottoming of the #StochasticRSI.
The market makers want your bags and this is how they get them.
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Tell me what comes next... 😏
RSI on the Chart?If you like RSI, you probably dislike that it takes up so much space on your screen - especially if your mobile. This solution provides the RSI in an authentic manner without sacrificing screen space. You might even be able to spot additional confluence types using this indicator. Soon enough I will have it spitting out all of my divergence signals. (I have 18 different divergences (9 buy, 9 sell) that I can spot and profit from)
Just search the indicators for EMARSI on Chart! Let me know what you think.
SMR approaching DCA opprtunityNYSE:SMR is approaching a potential entry point for the start of a DCA strategy for a long term hold.
SUMMARY
Wait to see where the price moves. Using a combination of RSI reaching 30 and the price falling to (with a 3 day filter) around $4 or if the price continues to fall then around $2 (another 3 day filter at this level too), begin entry with a DCA strategy. Alternatively, if the price rises above $6, after a 3 day filter, begin DCA. If the price starts forming a flag between $5 and $5.80, enter once RSI has reached 30 (for those with a higher risk appetite can just use the RSI as an indicator) or await a range breakout/down to either enter at the $4 or $2 or $6 level as described above with or without a three day filter.
The price was seeing exponential growth in the leadup to the latest quarterly earnings report and popped a few days after. However, the price has subsequently fallen back down and now seems to be forming a pattern.
It is unknown really what caused the price to jump. And there has not been any significant insider trading on the day (or lead up to the day) where the price recently peaked.
The company itself has a healthy balance sheet and debt/equity ratio. It is still in the growth phase as they build somewhat emerging tech (nuclear power is established but their approach to providing customers modular smaller power stations is unique) and a large part of their customer base is still a maturing market (power hungry data centres wanting their own onsite nuclear power source, particularly those now being setup for providing AI). The company's income statement reflects this as net income over the recent years remains negative and is also not showing an upwards trajectory.
With this in mind this would be a stock for a long term hold with a DCA investment strategy until, whichever comes first, either a total dollar figure invested is reached or the company becomes long term profitable (i.e. exits the growth phase).
With the recent price fluctuations it is crucial to not enter too early as due to the immature nature of the industry and company, the price also has a high likelihood of remaining at a low level for quite some time. However, a DCA entry opportunity is also forming based on one of the 3 of the more likely price trend scenarios described in the chart. Details on these are as follows.
Scenarios 1 and 2:
Wait to see which way the price begins to move and see if it falls to one of the two support levels identified, make use of the RSI to identify the optimum entry point. If the price falls to $4, add in a 3 day filter to see if the price doesn't fall further and likewise add in a 3 day filter if the price continues to fall from $4 to $2. If the RSI has reached 30, and the 3 day filter has shown that $4 or $2 were a support level begin DCA. If the price continues to fall below 2, halt the DCA to see where the price becomes stable and then restart once the RSI starts trending upwards again.
Scenario 3:
If the price begins ranging between $5.30 and $5.80, depending on risk appetite, begin DCA once the RSI reaches 30 or starts trending upwards. If the price breaks out above $6, then add in a 3 day filter to ensure the breakout wasn't a false dawn, and start the DCA investment independent of where the RSI is.
XVS Cryptocurrency Analysis: Uptrend Continuation or Correction This analysis examines the current state of the XVS cryptocurrency and assesses its potential future direction.
Technical Analysis:
Battling Weekly Resistance: XVS is facing a significant hurdle at the weekly resistance level, which could determine the course of its future trend.
Escaping the Accumulation Box: The recent breakout from the daily accumulation box marked a notable 80% surge.
Insufficient Rest Calls for Correction: The current uptrend lacks sufficient retracement, which is typically necessary for sustained upward momentum.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The blue trendline support acts as a critical barrier, with a breach potentially leading to a retracement towards the previous weekly resistance.
Resistance: The next weekly resistance level presents a significant obstacle for further upward movement.
RSI Indicator:
Overbought Territory: The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a potential correction.
Momentum Confirmation: A break above the overbought threshold could signal strong upward momentum.
Lower Timeframe Analysis:
4-Hour Timeframe: A more detailed analysis on the 4-hour timeframe provides a clearer picture of the current price action and potential support and resistance levels.
Conclusion:
The XVS cryptocurrency is at a critical juncture, with the outcome of the battle at the weekly resistance level determining its future direction. A correction is likely before further upward movement can occur. but considering decreasing the volume the out come might be different.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and employ sound risk management practices before trading.
Shiba Inu Technical Analysis: Consolidation or Breakout?Current Situation:
Shiba Inu has entered an accumulation zone, indicating a period of consolidation where buyers and sellers are reaching an equilibrium.
Despite facing resistance just above this zone, Shiba has managed to regain some of its strength.
The price is currently hovering around its 10-day moving average, a key technical indicator.
Potential Moves:
Breaking above the Trendline (TT Line): This could lead to a downward channel breakout, potentially lowering the price range. ⬇️
Breaking above the MACD Signal Line (Green Line): This could signal a bullish breakout, leading to a potential price increase. ⬆️
Breaking below the RSI Support Line (Blue Line): This could indicate a loss of momentum, potentially leading to a price decline. ⬇️
Additional Observations:
Rising Trading Volume: The recent increase in trading volume suggests heightened volatility in the near future.
Potential for Uptrend: Based on the rising volume, there's a chance for Shiba to climb toward the next weekly resistance level if it moves.
Overall:
From a technical analysis standpoint, Shiba Inu is currently in a consolidation phase. The direction of the price will depend on whether it breaks above or below key technical levels like the TT Line, MACD Signal Line, and RSI Support Line. The increased trading volume suggests a potential for significant price movement in the coming days.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions
Bearish RSI divergence on NasdaqHello everyone,
I just found a bearish RSI divergence on weekly chart of Nasdaq. RSI (14) on February 5 was at 73.05 and 72.91 on February 26. Close was 15990.66, now is 16274.94.
In addition there was a bull cycle of 18 bars on weekly chart from March 13 2023 with price increase of 31.54 %, current cycle from October 23 ended with 29.96 %.
And there is a high probability of a drop after reaching the ATH. See June 18 2015, just 4 days after a drop occured with a low on July 7, then another ATH was on July 15 August at 5231.94, this is just 1.01937 % above ATH from 10 March 2000 at 5132.52. Then signiffant drop occured with a low on August 24 at 4292.14, this is 82,03 % of ATH.
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
CMG - it might be expensive but the value is there LONGCMG on the weekly chart has been uptrending for a year after being rangebound sideways for a
year. It has seen a volume spike and corresponding price action with the current earnings beat
Price rose 60% in the past year and 16% YTD. This is not linear and nor is it parabolic.
The MACD supports the bullish momentum observation in the price action while the RS indicator
shows good strength in both shorter and longer time frames. This is a blue chip megacap for
sure. While it is not technology like the MAg7, the food business is lucrative. the CEO in the
earnings call announced plans to expand to 7000 stores nationally. This is ambitious. Those who
are ambitious investors or traders and are well funded could consider adding some shares
or even a few options of CMG. I am going with a few options OTM at $3000 six months out.
I believe that I will be well rewarded for the risk taken especially given the expansion plans
and the historical track record here.
Spot Bullish and Bearish Divergence PatternsHow to trade with Divergence? A condition where the price candles’ tops or bottoms point in a different direction from the corresponding tops or bottoms of the oscillator's signal line is called a divergence. Such divergence can be bullish or bearish.
In simple words, the price movement is opposite to the stochRSI,
Price lower lows, stochRSI higher lows = bullish divergence>go buy
Price higher highs, stochRSI lower highs = bearish divergence>go sell
LTC / BTC Trade with clear invalidation and take profit levelsI am suggesting we are on the brink of a larger move upwards for the LTC/BTC pair over the next couple of weeks. If you take a look at the move beginning Friday June 10th 2022, you'll see that we viciously broke through this weak resistance level.
AI's EUR/USD Pattern & Scalping Range, Local European SentimentAI's EUR/USD Falling Channel & Breakout Odds with Scalping Range
D ear Valued Investors,
Introduction
I would like to provide you with an update on the trading bots' activity. They have been diligently following a short position initiated at 1.101, see the idea above the chart, and I am pleased to inform you that the trade has been successful, as indicated by the success of the forecast on the left side of the chart.
News Trading - Natural Language Processing Results
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in July, which could strengthen the euro. The ECB has been signaling for months that it will need to raise rates to combat inflation, and the latest data suggests that inflation is still running high in the eurozone. A rate hike would make the euro more attractive to investors compared to the dollar, which is currently yielding very little.
- The eurozone economy is showing signs of resilience. The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, and the latest data suggests that growth is continuing in the second quarter. This suggests that the eurozone economy is more robust than many economists had expected, which could support the euro in the near term.
- The risk of a recession in the United States is increasing. The US economy is facing a number of headwinds, including high inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. These factors could lead to a recession in the US, which would likely weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro.
Personal Comment
I live in the EU, and as a consumer, I don't see any sign of recession here. To me, it seems that the US economy bears the bigger weight in the news of the war are about. Objectively, the US economy might be stronger, but the prices don't necessarily reflect the current power. Investors try to speculate which economy will suffer harder and pool value into those that seem resilience. I believe in the resilience of the EU economy, and I experience the local sentiment. While prices are rising, people don't FUD yet. Many seek opportunities to make a profit that can cover the inflation costs. EUR has seemed more resilient so far to the difficulties than the other European currencies. If you live in the EU, you know that many countries still have their national currencies (not EUR), but you can pay with EUR everywhere here. So, it makes sense that many sell their national currencies to EUR. EUR is more resilient, and they can pay with it as smoothly as with their national currencies.
Pattern Recognition AI's Results
Through my pattern recognition algorithms, I have identified a falling channel pattern on the chart. This pattern is characterized by purple trendlines. Despite its bearish implications, the price broke above this pattern on December 11th, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
Scalping Possibilities
Currently, the EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase, trading between the support level at 1.072 and the resistance level at 1.082. These levels align with the EMA 100, and the support line is denoted by the color green, while the resistance line is represented by red. Shorting opportunities may arise from resistance to support.
Neural Network's Prediction
Based on the current technical indicators, I anticipate a scenario in which the EUR/USD gains momentum from the support level and breaks out above the channel. This potential trajectory is depicted by the white lines. In the event of a successful breakout, my neural networks suggest target prices of 1.095 or even 1.100.
Technical Indicators
The fluctuating volume below the channel indicates increasing volatility. Noteworthy bullish indications include the price consolidating above EMA 20, the RSI crossover below on the RSI indicator, and the strong uptrend of MACD since December 7th.
Disclaimer:
I would like to emphasize that this communication does not constitute investment advice. I strongly urge you to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. It is essential to recognize that your funds are your responsibility, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sincerely,
Ely
ETH/USD - Ascending Triangle and a Double TopETH/USD is in an Ascending Triangle Pattern. We also have what could be a Double Top as well.
Ascending Triangle Pattern = Potentially Bullish
Double Top = Potentially Bearish
Here is a closer look at this 1day chart. Note the Liquidity Void being filled up at the moment.
Here is a closer look at the RSI. Momentum is downwards at the moment but note the over extension of the RSI on the attached Bollinger Bands.
There could be interesting times ahead.
QQQ Simple uncovered Call Option Example Here QQQ is shown on a 15-minute NASDAQ:QQQ chart. I have set up and executed a call option on QQQ.
This is a recap.
The first thing is to plan for the entry area. To do this I set a fixed range for the
volume profile for a couple of days before the trade. Since the trade was on Friday, December
1st, the volume profile began on Wednesday the 29th of November. While the volume profile
may seem complex to look at, I only paid attention to three values- the POC line representing
the price value of the highest amount of trades ( black line) the lower value of the high volume
area ( green line) and the highest value of the high volume area ( red line). The thesis is that
if a trade is taken at the green line with other confirmatory indications such as the fast hull
moving average reversing from a downtrend and the RSI testing the oversold area, that bullish
momentum will push the price to the POC line and perhaps higher if selling pressure from bear
trades do not grow to meet that challenge. The target is the upper line of the boundary of
the volume area while the strike price is the value closest to the POC line.
In this example, the strike price was 390 and the trade was for 10 call options for $ 0.49 each
for a total trade cost of $490. Although the calls expire on Monday December 4th, the trade
was closed when stock price hit the target. The total trade duration was about 2 hours and 10
minutes. The close had an option price of $1.86 yielding $1860 from the inital $490 placed
in the trade. The net profit of $ 1370 represents about $ 450 per hour for the time expended.
The risk with a 20% stop loss is about $100 which is 1% of a $10,000 account.
This is a very simple strategy that can be rinsed and repeated. It can be done with same day
approach or a longer expiration like 5-10 days depending on a trader's appetite for reward
relative to risk, time decay and uncertainties in the market relative to time.