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USD/JPY Struggles as Key Fibonacci Support Comes into FocusUSD/JPY has extended its decline, now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 146.95, a key support zone. The pair remains under pressure after failing to reclaim 151.50, where the 38.2% retracement and the 200-day EMA converge. Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Support Test: The 61.8% retracement level is being challenged, making this a critical decision point. A confirmed breakdown below 146.95 could open the door toward 143.70 (78.6% retracement). Bearish EMAs: The 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA are sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Momentum Indicators: RSI is approaching oversold levels, suggesting a short-term bounce could emerge. However, the broader trend remains weak. MACD remains in negative territory, signaling continued downside pressure. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 146.95 (61.8% retracement), 143.70 (78.6% retracement). Resistance: 149.20 (50% retracement) and 151.50 (200-day EMA & 38.2% retracement). USD/JPY is at a critical juncture. Holding 146.95 could trigger a short-term rebound, but failure to do so would reinforce the bearish case, targeting the mid-143s. Bulls need to reclaim at least 149.20 to shift the structure back toward neutral. -MW
by FOREXcom
Usdjpy sell zoneThis is a USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen) 1-hour timeframe technical analysis from FXCM, indicating a sell trade setup with the following details: 1. Resistance Level: Identified around 149.546, marked in yellow. This is the level where price is expected to face selling pressure. 2. Entry Point: Around 148.990, which aligns with a key resistance zone. 3. Target Level: 147.459, representing the expected price drop where traders may take profit. 4. Market Outlook: The analysis suggests a bearish setup, expecting price rejection from the resistance zone and a downward move toward the support level. 5. Price Action Strategy: The price is likely to consolidate near resistance before making a decisive move downward. This setup signals a potential short (sell) opportunity, anticipating that USD/JPY will decline after hitting resistance, making it favorable for sellers.
Long
by MARK_STEVAN
USD/JPY testing THIS key resistance ahead of US dataAfter rising in the last three sessions, the USD/JPY was up again today, testing a key resistance area between 151.00 to 151.35. This is a massive resistance zone, having previously provided support. With Japanese yields on rise again, I wouldn't be surprised if the UJ were to resume lower from here. If so, watch for a possible bounce at 150.00. If 150.00 then gives way decisively, we could see a new low below the double bottom low of 148.65ish. The key risk to this bearish forecast if the upcoming US economic data today and later this week, with ISM Manufacturing PMI up next. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
US PCE could be the catalyst for USDJPY to make a stronger moveMARKETSCOM:USDJPY is currently flirting with the area around the 149.00 hurdle. In order to shift our attention to some lower areas, a drop below the lowest point of December 2024 is needed. But what about the US PCEs? Let's dig in... FX_IDC:USDJPY What are your thoughts on this? 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4% (January/2025) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY Breaking Lower, Fib Levels in Play📉 Key Breakdown Below 150.00 USD/JPY has fallen sharply, breaking below key support at 151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement) and testing 149.63 (50% Fib level). The pair is trading below both the 50-day EMA (153.80) and 200-day EMA (152.17), reinforcing downside pressure. 🔍 Technical Levels to Watch: Support: 149.23 (50% Fib retracement) → Current price is testing this level. 146.95 (61.8% Fib retracement) → Next major downside target. 143.71 (78.6% Fib retracement) → Deeper bearish target. Resistance: 151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement, former support, now resistance) 152.17 (200-day EMA) → A key level to reclaim for bulls. 📊 Momentum Indicators Bearish: RSI at 33.18 → Near oversold territory, but still trending downward. Bearish momentum accelerating, further losses possible. 🔻 What’s Next? If USD/JPY holds below 150.00, expect further downside toward 146.95. A recovery above 151.50 could neutralize the immediate bearish outlook. Right now, momentum favors the bears, and lower Fib levels remain in focus. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY: Fibonacci Support Sparks a ReboundChart Analysis: USD/JPY finds support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (151.50), leading to a sharp recovery above the 200-day SMA. 1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Levels Holding: The recent pullback tested key Fibonacci retracement levels, with buyers stepping in at 151.50 (38.2%). Further support levels sit at 149.23 (50%) and 146.95 (61.8%), which remain key downside targets if weakness resumes. 2️⃣ Moving Averages as Key Pivot Points: 50-day SMA (154.97): Price is testing this level after the rebound. 200-day SMA (152.74): Successfully held as dynamic support, confirming broader uptrend remains intact. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Show Recovery: RSI: 49.69, recovering from oversold conditions but still lacking bullish confirmation. MACD: Bearish momentum is fading, but a crossover signal is yet to emerge. What to Watch: Sustained move above 155.00 could trigger a fresh rally toward December’s highs. A break back below 152.00 would shift focus to deeper Fibonacci support levels. Watch for a MACD crossover as a confirmation of renewed upside momentum. USD/JPY remains at a critical inflection point, with Fibonacci support holding but further strength needed for a bullish confirmation. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY extends rally on hot CPIThe USD/JPY extended its rally following the release of hotter-than-expected US CPI data, which fuelled a surge in bond yields and strengthened the dollar. Headline CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, while Core CPI climbed 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, CPI reached 3.0% and Core CPI hit 3.3%, both above expectations. This reinforced market sentiment that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts, pushing US 5- to 10-year yields at least 10 basis points higher. As a result, traders increased their bets on further USD/JPY gains. The market will now focus on the second day of Powell’s testimony, with PPI data and retail sales still to come later in the week. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY has shown resilience, rebounding from support at 151.00 and breaking above the key 200-day moving average near 152.50/60. The pair has cleared resistance at 153.70-154.00, and if it holds above the 200-day average, it could extend its advance toward the significant 155.00 level. However, a failure to maintain this breakout could see support tested back at 153.70, with further downside levels at 152.50/60 and 151.00. With the bullish momentum reinforced by strong CPI data and higher yields, USD/JPY traders will closely watch price action determine if the uptrend can sustain. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com
by FOREXcom
WEEKLY RECAP - Week 1, 2025The most important thing to reflect on each week is NOT your profit and loss balance. Instead, reflect on these three questions: - Did I follow my core habits for success? - Am I ready to let my attachments from last week go? - Am I focusing on this current moment, or a destination I'm trying to reach? I won't put a whole lot of words here. It's all in the video, but here are the three setups from last week, and here is my notion journal so you can follow along. USDJPY EURUSD EURUSD Notion Journal Enjoy the ride, -Gio
by elevatedinvestor