NEM: Shorting the topLet's see if we catch this top here. Looking for a retest of the KEL below.
Stop loss at 41.39, and risking a small amount (0.5-1%) is fine.
Gold futures and spot look ready to move down and NEM is extremely overbought here.
You can also take a pair trade against GLD, other miners, etc. I'll share a few example setups in the comments.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
$khl
TSLA: Improving fundamentals and strong price actionTSLA has held a key weekly and daily level, showing great relative strength, and hinting at a rally towards the 215 mark. I'm long from 192.85, as announced in my private signals group, and also posted today at Tim West's KHL chatroom. My stop is 186.09. Today's close shows the bulls are in control, and we can expect buyers stepping in with force asap, probably gapping up tomorrow and rallying with haste. You could sell puts, or buy stock here. Shorting puts can work well with the very high Vix.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.26% on such information.
Key Hidden Levels: A few trades we sharedThese are a few trades we shared at the KHL chatroom, I have shared the link in my previous posts.
If you're interested in learning more about the methods used by Tim West, which I learned and apply in my own trading, contact me privately. I also offer a signals service, with more setups, for FX, equities, metals and oil for the most part.
It's clear the market is in an uptrend for now. There is an uptrend signal in SPY, which indicates we might see a reaction by the 14-15th, which happens to match the FOMC meeting date. I reccomend monitoring equity longs closely by then. I'm in these and a few other trades, and I'll be looking to book profits safely. I'll update this publication if needed.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
UAL: Long term long entryWe have shared this entry in the KHL chatroom. You can still enter at market, or buy dips to the key level at 45.
With oil possibly topping for the year, this can be an excellent trade.
Props to Tim West and his Key Hidden Levels. I've come a long way thanks to his mentoring.
Leave comments if you take the trade with me here (or if you've taken any of the ones I posted before). It's a great encouragement, and can sometimes have a bigger impact than just material gratification from succesful trades, or from my customer base.
Have a nice weekend!
Ivan Labrie.
WMT: Picture perfect long setupWMT is offering a very nice entry, after forming a new weekly mode, which implies the strong uptrend is seeing reaccumulation at higher levels.
I'm looking to enter longs at market, at the open, ideally on retrace to the mid point of the green triangle on chart.
Stops should be below 67.40, for example at 66.51, or using 3 times the daily ATR.
Yield is very nice and I think the stock is due for a 11%+ rally still.
Good luck if taking this trade.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
CADJPY: Potential for huge downside in this pairCADJPY has broken under a previous week's low recently after finding massive supply coming in at a previous low volume resistance level, where the bears showed hand. Interestingly enough, we now have 5 closed quarters without a new high, and a close under the quarterly mode, thus confirming a long term downtrend in this pair is viable.
The weekly chart shows us with clarity where the highest activity levels sit. Currently we have 8 week levels where price has transacted at, soon to become 9, thus favoring continuation of the downtrend that kicked off during December 2015.
Once we observe price move under 82.774, it'd be safe to assume we might have a sharp decline, with potential to hit the 75 handle in 9 weeks or less. Confirmation according to the time at mode logic would arrive later, but I'm already in this trade based on the daily chart price action. We have 5 days without a new high after today's close, further validating this thesis. You can go short on any intraday retracement, or at market now, with stops above the 85 mark.
Good luck if taking this trade, if interested in receiving timely trade signals and/or tuition, contact me privately for more information. I'm currently offering a discount for new clients who opt for my trading course.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Trend is up, only a matter of timeThe Bitcoin chart is one that speaks volumes when you read it utilizing the methods devised by Tim West.
If we look closely we can see that the monthly and weekly trends are up, and that we have potential for a breakout in the coming weeks.
Right now, the weekly is in a triangle consolidation but the breakout should happen relatively soon.
We have 3 inside months in a row after the huge rally we had last year.
I will update the chart when the rally is confirmed, technically, the weekly might trigger first, to then confirm the monthly uptrend which could fire an explosive rally, and possibly a new all time high for Bitcoin.
With the block reward halving approaching, I suspect that might be the trigger for this rally.
Disclaimer: I'm holding long term long positions initiated from lower levels, as well as holding ethereum as a fixed % of my holdings. I have shared these entries with my signals group privately. See my profile for more information.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GBPUSD: The Pound is facing downside pressureThe Pound has been supported, while tracing a triangle, which is characterized by the lack of a clear trend direction.
Rgmov has been in a downtrend, suggesting that every overbought rally was a short, which has been the case.
Currently, price is breaking below the weekly mode, which is 11 weeks long, and soon to be 12 after this week's close (unless we expand the weekly range down).
I think it's highly likely to see a sharp move to the downside now that the support has been broken and that the inside trendlines forming the triangle have receded too. If we expand the daily range, we could take a tighter stop short, for the time being I'm in with a 3 ATR stop loss, and will be looking to add as we get further confirmation of trend continuation.
Good luck if taking this trade.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURCAD: Potential rally after downtrend time expiredIn this chart we have a nice long setup, with a premature entry, based on a series of factors, ahead of the time at mode confirmation for this trade.
Since we're above the mode, or most frequent price since the recent low, it's likely to see uptrend continuation, specially considering that the downtrend we had observed in the daily (see my related publications) has reached the target, and the time duration of it expired. This implies price can rally back to the downtrend mode, which is what I expect based on the eurusd, usdcad and oil charts.
We can enter preemtively now, using a wider stop and a smaller position (1% risk at the 3 atr stop on chart), and set a generic 5 atr take profit. This type of entry lets us 'feel the waters' in many instruments, and focus on adding to those that are currently performing best. We can also use paper trading accounts to take positions we wouldn't normally take, or to sell when we close any long trade, etc. and track our performance this way.
I hope you find this useful, it's not always about using tight stops, but having lower risk from time to time, can favor our equity curves too.
The horizontal lines are 1 atr distance levels, where I would like to add to the trade (and which would confirm the strength of the proposed uptrend). After exceeding 1 atr profit, we can add on any setback, no need to add if price keeps going up with no retracement.
Happy Easter!
Ivan Labrie
USDCHF: Quarterly uptrend almost confirmed but weekly is bearishIn my previous publication I shared an optimum level to go long USDCHF using the quarterly uptrend stop loss.
Currently we have retested this key level, and rallied, but we approach a heavy resistance zone and the weekly chart presents a confirmed 13 week decline which aims for 0.93084.
I had added the FOMC key levels, which represent support and resistance levels derived from price action around the Fed's meetings and minutes release dates.
They let us anticipate direction and targets for the moves in this and other pairs heavily affected by their decisions.
Any of these levels presents an opportunity to fade the retest utilizing an ATR based stop loss.
In this case, I'd be looking to short USDCHF higher, anticipating the completion of the weekly downtrend target, but I'd be extremely careful when approaching the quarterly mode (or more frequent price) at 0.9476.
When and if March closes without retesting said level, a quarterly uptrend will then become active, and we will be able to long this pair safely, and aim for 1.3000 in the future.
Let's see how price behaves, follow the reaction to key levels, and the market reactions to news events and you will be in good shape.
Happy Easter!
Ivan Labrie
STWD: Potential time at mode uptrendTim West discussed this chart in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom today.
I'm expanding the analysis here, presenting a potential 'Time at mode' uptrend signal after today's bullish action.
The trade implies going long tomorrow, if we open and close above the 18.52 mark, without retesting it, with a stop loss underneath this level (we can use ATR as well, or try multiple entries with different stop loss locations depending on our risk appetite).
Look to enter longs tomorrow, if we get confirmation. For the time being, keep this in your watch list, and make sure to subscribe to Tim's 'Key Hidden Levels' indicator pack, and join the chatroom for more ideas like this.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Nikkei: Short the topThe Nikkei is showing an interesting setup.
On one hand, there is a daily uptrend in place, but on the other hand, price is approaching the key area corresponding to the day when negative rates where announced by the Bank of Japan.
This daily candle was followed by a higher low, which is labeled on chart as a key level, and then a heavy decline.
As an interesting sidenote, this day's low and high match the extremes of the 'value area' in the volume profile, and the 50% level marks the monthly mode (regarding time spent at price) on chart for this whole range where price has been stuck since November 2015.
You could go long Nikkei (or some yen pairs, like for instance EURJPY), to ride this coming leg up in risk on, but the bigger trade might be the short side once this is done. Interestingly, the Dax is the worst performer as of late, and might be the best short candidate.
I'll update the chart with the short entry once we hit my target.
I added the tlt, gold and hyg charts on top, and the usdjpy, Dax and S&P500 charts as an overlay to the Nikkei so you can see the interplay between them.
The idea is to use the Nikkei and Yen as a barometer for the other instruments here, everything forms part of the same puzzle and we can crack the codes with some work on the patterns on chart, and knowledge of the fundamentals, news dates, and the price reaction associated to them.
Happy Easter,
Ivan Labrie.