BTC Cycle Idea: Peak to Peak 2018-2021 OverlayAnother Path to a 2025 Q4 Cycle Peak for BTC.
Overall market sentiment unanimously agrees that we're going higher next year. The question is how high and for how long? What happens after?
IMO its impossible to predict so instead, let's account for the most likely scenarios and react quickly as they develop.
1-BTC
BTC Double Top Idea (2025 Q4)Not my base case but a possible scenario for a wildcard cycle with diminishing returns. While ETFs flows are adding noise, on chain metrics are still a great sanity/narrative checks. Will be looking to layer exits based on key price targets as well as time based profit taking (Q2 2025).
Key On Chain Metrics are MVRV, Puell, Value Days Destroyed (VDD), Realized Cap HODL Waves and some others.
Let me know what you think.
CYCLE 4 | LOG Trend Lines Chart - For Fun!Quick post looking at how BTC has historically respected 'log trend lines and how they may affect BTC future price action.
Will be fun to see how this model holds up over cycle 4 and future BTC cycles (view on a computer and use the future price action tools to see what happened past todays post date).
$BOBUSDT: Strategic Entry into a Multi-Chain Stable TokenI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
BOB Token ( KUCOIN:BOBUSDT ): Strategic Entry into a Multi-Chain Stable Token
BOB Token (BOB) is a cryptocurrency in the digital asset market. As of December 12, 2024, it is trading at $0.00003422, with an intraday high of $0.00003432 and a low of $0.00003344.
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $0.000035524
- Stop-Loss: $0.000025460
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $0.000065603
- TP2: $0.000075555
Fundamental Analysis:
BOB is a multi-chain, multi-collateral stable token enhanced with optional privacy features. Developed by Alexei Zamyatin and Dominik Harz, BOB operates across platforms like Polygon, Optimism, and Ethereum, offering users flexible and private transactions.
Technical Analysis:
- Moving Averages:
- 50-Day SMA: $0.00003350
- 200-Day SMA: $0.00003200
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $0.00003300
- Resistance: $0.00003550
Market Sentiment:
The recent launch of BOB's public testnet has showcased its potential to combine Bitcoin's security with Ethereum's flexibility, attracting attention from the crypto community.
Risk Management:
Implementing a stop-loss at $0.000025460 helps mitigate potential losses, while the take-profit targets at $0.000065603 and $0.000075555 offer favourable risk-reward ratios. Given the token's volatility, strict adherence to these levels is crucial.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Let's go for ATH...hello guys
This coin was in a correction phase for a long time after an incredible jump, and with the growth of the market, the correction ended and started to climb with a ceiling and successive claps...
Now we expect ATH from it because its trend is well rounded and the currency itself has a high growth potential, so you can buy one step according to the start of growth and buy again if it corrects.
Give us energy with likes and comments.
good luck
BTC.D Analysis - Dominance Faces 200-Day MA ResistanceTrend Indicator:
- **PSAR**: Turned green, indicating a potential recovery attempt, but the rejection at the **200-day MA** dampens the bullish outlook.
Key Observations:
1. **200-Day MA (~57.1%)**: Rejection here underscores strong resistance, halting the recent upward momentum.
2. **Fibonacci Levels**:
- **0.382 Fib (~60%)** remains the primary upper resistance.
- **0.236 Fib (~50.5%)** acts as the key lower support, aligning with a potential consolidation zone.
Oscillators:
- **OBV**: Declining, reflecting weaker buying pressure and increasing distribution.
- **RSI**: At 38.8, moving downward toward oversold conditions, suggesting bearish momentum persists.
- **MACD**: Bearish crossover confirmed, with the histogram in negative territory, indicating increased selling pressure.
Volume:
Selling volume has increased, reinforcing the rejection narrative at the **200-day MA**.
Outlook:
The rejection at the **200-day MA** signals potential continued downside, with the **0.236 Fib level (~50.5%)** emerging as a critical support. If this level holds, dominance could attempt another recovery. However, failure to maintain this support may lead to further downside momentum. Keep an eye on the oscillators for oversold signals as they may indicate a reversal opportunity.
Optimistic Altseason Outlook
The rejection at the **200-day MA** and declining BTC.D suggest a possible shift in market sentiment. Historically, such dominance pullbacks often signal the onset of **altseason**, where capital rotates into high-performing altcoins. With BTC dominance stalling below 57%, altcoins may find a chance to outperform.
As dominance approaches the **0.236 Fib level (~50.5%)**, altcoins may experience renewed interest, particularly if BTC consolidates or retraces further. Combined with oversold oscillator signals and declining BTC-centric volume, this creates an environment ripe for altcoin rallies.
Keep an eye on BTC.D's movement near key support levels and watch for strong volume shifts into altcoins. A breakout in key altcoin leaders could confirm the start of altseason. Stay diversified and ready to capitalize on the opportunities ahead! 🚀
BITCOIN Keep it simple. It won't top anytime soon.This is indeed a 'keep it simple' analysis consisting of 4 charts, each displaying a Bitcoin Cycle since 2012.
There is no need to overcomplicate things, the charts are pretty much self explanatory.
According to all 3 prior Cycles, BTC is on a rally supported by the 1week MA50, that is just over halfway completed.
It will not peak anytime soon and may very well be above $200k, even as high as $300k if the extremely optimistic scenario prevails.
Previous chart:
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Bitcoin will make the New ATH!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is moving near the Support zone($99,600-$98,000) and has managed to break the Resistance lines .
Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin completed a corrective wave as I expected .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least Resistance zone($102,280-$101,000) and if the Resistance zone breaks , we can hope for a new All-Time High(ATH) soon .
⚠️Note: if BTC goes below the Support zone($99,600-$98,000), we can expect more dumps. ⚠️
🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Need to check support near the new high point
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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It seems that funds have flowed into the coin market through USDT and USDC.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
The point to watch is whether it can meet resistance near the MS-Signal indicator and fall below 55.01.
If BTC dominance rises, it means that funds are concentrated on BTC, so altcoins are likely to show a downward trend.
However, you cannot predict the rise and fall of BTC prices based on the rise or fall of BTC dominance.
(USDT.D 1D chart)
The movement of USDT dominance can be used to roughly estimate the overall trend of the coin market.
Therefore, if USDT dominance falls, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend, and if it rises, it is likely to show a downward trend.
Therefore, the movement of prices can be identified by the movement of USDT dominance.
Therefore, you can roughly estimate the movement of funds with BTC dominance and the trend with USDT dominance.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
Although the StochRSI indicator has fallen below 50, the price of BTC is actually showing an upward trend.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether the StochRSI indicator turns upward again and whether it turns into a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
It is currently showing an upward trend near 101109.59, which is the BW(100) indicator point.
Accordingly, whether there is support near 101109.59 is the key.
If the StochRSI indicator fails to turn into a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA and shows a downward trend, it is expected to fall again to the 95904.28-98892.0 range.
-
Therefore, what we should consider important in the current movement is whether we can reset the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart while maintaining the price around the newly formed high point range of 97821.58-101109.58 until around December 27th.
Based on the high point range of 97821.58-101109.58, this means that 101109.58 or higher is the high point.
Therefore, it is better to interpret the high point range as a high point boundary range.
Therefore, if it rises above the high point range and then falls below the high point range, it is highly likely that it will lead to an additional decline, and we should consider countermeasures for this.
When the decline begins, the downtrend will stop as it finally creates a low point range (low point boundary range).
That is, when it meets the HA-Low indicator and BW(0) indicator, it will create a low point section.
If it creates a low point section and then creates a bottom section, an upward trend will begin.
If we organize this movement,
1. It rises in the section composed of the HA-Low, BW(0) indicator and most of the movement appears within the section composed of the HA-High, BW(100) indicator.
That is, the HA-Low, BW(0) section ~ HA-High, BW(100) section forms a sideways, box section.
2. If it falls in the section composed of the HA-Low, BW(0) indicator, it is highly likely to create a downward wave and show a stepwise downward trend.
However, since this step-down trend will eventually play a role in creating a bottom section, if the HA-Low, BW(0) indicators show a rise higher than the previous HA-Low, BW(0) indicators, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility that a bottom section will be formed at that time.
3. If it rises in the section composed of the HA-High, BW(100) indicators, it is highly likely that it will create an upward wave and show a step-up trend.
Therefore, it is recommended to set a stop loss point when trading because there is a high possibility that it will turn into a downtrend when it falls above the section composed of the HA-High, BW(100) indicators.
However, it is necessary to check the correlation with the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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BTC Long: 200D SMA Bull Regime & RSI SignalsWe are now trending in overbought territory across both Monthly, Weekly timeframes. However, there is still room to go... To measure RSI strength we are leveraging our powerful Adapted RSI indicator.
Whilst, the 200D SMA indicator helps traders identify market regimes using the powerful combination of 50 and 200 SMAs. It provides clear visual signals and detailed metrics for trend-following strategies.
Key Features:
- Dual SMA System (50/200) for regime identification
- Colour-coded candles for easy trend visualisation
- Metrics dashboard
Core Signals:
- Bullish Regime: Price > 200 SMA
- Bearish Regime: Price < 200 SMA
- Additional confirmation: 50 SMA Cross-over or Cross-under (golden cross or death cross)
BTC swing thesis by Titan_KarmaPrediction( investment_thesis='**News Analysis:** Currently, there is no significant news impacting the BTCUSDT pair. This lack of news suggests that the market may be driven more by technical factors and existing sentiment rather than new developments. Traders should remain vigilant for any emerging news that could influence market dynamics. **Market Sentiment Analysis:** The market sentiment for BTCUSDT is mixed, with a slight bullish inclination. The increase in long positions, particularly in the 4-hour and daily timeframes, indicates a growing confidence among traders. However, the high price level and significant trading volume suggest that the market is actively engaged, which could lead to increased volatility. Traders should be prepared for potential rapid price movements and adjust their strategies accordingly. **Technical Analysis:** The technical indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI is approaching overbought levels, and the Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions, especially in shorter timeframes. The MACD shows bearish momentum in the 1d and 1h timeframes but bullish momentum in the 4h timeframe, suggesting potential short-term volatility. The ADX indicates a strong trend in the 1d timeframe, but weaker in the 4h timeframe. The price is near the upper Bollinger Band in the 1h timeframe, indicating potential resistance. Overall, while the long-term trend is bullish, caution is advised due to short-term overbought conditions and potential resistance levels. **Fundamental Analysis:** The fundamental outlook remains positive, with a strong upward trend observed over the past few months. However, the recent consolidation around the $101,000 level suggests potential resistance. Without new fundamental developments, the market may continue to rely on technical indicators and existing sentiment to guide price movements. **Risk Management Strategy:** Given the mixed technical signals and potential for short-term volatility, a cautious approach is recommended. Set a stop-loss slightly below the recent support level to protect against downside risks. Consider taking profits if the price approaches the resistance levels, especially if overbought conditions persist. For new entries, wait for a confirmed breakout above resistance or a pullback to support for a better risk-reward ratio. **CONFIDENCE_LEVEL:** 72% The confidence level reflects the mixed technical signals and the absence of significant news, indicating a moderate-risk trade. ##**TRADE RECOMMENDATION** ```json { "OUTCOME": "HOLD_BUY", "STOP_LOSS": "$99,500.00", "TAKE_PROFIT": "$105,000.00", "CONFIDENCE_LEVEL": "72%", "EXIT_POINT": "$104,000.00", "ENTRY_CRITERIA": { "TIMEFRAME": "4h", "RSI": "below 70", "MACD": "above 0, 4h", "ATR": "0.005, 4h" }, "CURRENT_OPEN_LONG_POSITIONS": 1, "CURRENT_OPEN_SHORT_POSITIONS": 0, "OPEN_POSITION": "$101,836.11" } ```' )
Bitcoin Market Trend Analysis (BTC/USDT) – Updated TradingOverview of the Current Bitcoin Market Trend
In December 2024, the Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) market continues to show a strong bullish trend, with the price moving within an ascending channel. However, Bitcoin is currently facing key resistance levels, which could lead to one of two scenarios: a continued breakout or a correction to test support levels. In this article, we will analyze the Bitcoin market trend in detail and provide effective trading strategies.
Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSD Market Overview for December 2024
The Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) chart shows the price moving within an ascending channel, with a trendline support below and resistance above. Currently, the price is approaching the significant resistance zone around 104,000 USD to 106,000 USD. These levels have acted as strong resistance in the past. Will Bitcoin break through these levels and continue its upward trend, or will it face a pullback? Let’s find out.
Analysis of Resistance and Support Levels
Strong Resistance at the 104,000 USD - 106,000 USD Zone
Main Resistance: Bitcoin is nearing the 104,000 USD - 106,000 USD range, which is a key resistance area. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through this zone and stays above the resistance, the price could continue to rise. However, if the price fails to break above and shows rejection, it may consolidate or retrace.
Strong Support at the 100,000 USD Level
Main Support: The 100,000 USD level is not only an important support but also a psychological round number for investors. This is a level where Bitcoin could recover if the market experiences a pullback. If the price dips to this level and begins to bounce back, it may create a buy opportunity aligned with the uptrend.
Bitcoin Trading Strategies
Breakout Strategy
Entry Condition: If Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD breaks above the 104,000 USD - 106,000 USD resistance zone with high trading volume, consider entering a long position. Pay attention to the strong upward momentum in volume to confirm the breakout.
Profit Target: The profit target could be 110,000 USD or higher if the trend continues.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss below the nearest support level, such as 100,000 USD or 99,000 USD, to protect the position if the price fails to maintain the uptrend.
Buy on Dip Strategy
Entry Condition: If the price pulls back to the 100,000 USD level or the support of the channel, you can enter a buy position. Confirm the bounce with increasing volume and a recovery candlestick pattern.
Profit Target: Take profit at 104,000 USD or higher if the uptrend continues.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss below 100,000 USD or below the channel’s support to safeguard the position.
Short Strategy
Entry Condition: If Bitcoin fails to break through 106,000 USD and shows signs of rejection (e.g., reversal candlestick patterns, decreasing volume), you may consider opening a short position. This is especially true if volume does not increase when the price approaches resistance.
Profit Target: Take profit at the 100,000 USD level or below the channel’s support.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above 106,500 USD to protect the position if the price continues higher.
Volume Analysis
Volume is an important factor for confirming technical signals. A strong increase in volume as the price approaches resistance levels could signal a breakout. However, if volume decreases when the price reaches these levels, it may indicate a lack of buying interest, and the market could experience a pullback.
Bitcoin currently in an ascending bull flagI made a rough estimate of where the flag make breakout for where I placed the dotted measured move breakout target line. There’s a chance it could not hit the entire flag tRGET and instead only reach the breakout target of just the channel portion of the flag itself which would be a much lower target. Also always a possibility arising channel breaks to the downside though at the beginning of a parabolic phase during a bull market they usually break upwards. We will see what happens soon enough *not financial advice*
WIF Long Spot Trade (Consolidation Opportunity)Market Context:
WIF is currently consolidating in a favorable zone, offering an excellent opportunity to ladder into a long spot trade. With proper risk management and a clear upward target, this setup provides strong potential for upside continuation.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: Around $2.90
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $3.50
Second target: $3.90
Stop Loss: $2.50
This trade setup presents a clear structure with defined risk and reward, aligning with current market conditions.
BTC Breaks $101,000: BlackRock Advocates 2% Portfolio AllocationBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has reclaimed the $101,000 mark, riding a wave of institutional endorsements and bullish technical indicators. A groundbreaking paper from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role in diversified portfolios, suggesting a 1% to 2% allocation as a “reasonable range.” This development comes as Bitcoin surges amid macroeconomic and political tailwinds.
BlackRock’s Strategic Endorsement
BlackRock’s latest report emphasizes Bitcoin’s place in multi-asset portfolios, comparing its risk profile to the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks in a 60/40 stocks-and-bonds portfolio. While cautioning against exceeding a 2% allocation due to increased portfolio risk, BlackRock’s endorsement underscores the asset’s growing legitimacy.
According to Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s CIO of ETF and Index Investments, “A Bitcoin allocation would provide a diverse source of risk, while overweighting tech stocks amplifies portfolio concentration.” The paper also notes Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional assets, albeit with significant volatility.
Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Rally
Bitcoin’s recent surge is bolstered by multiple factors:
- Political Support: President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his appointments of blockchain-friendly officials have revitalized market confidence.
- ETF Adoption: The January 2024 launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a game-changer. These funds have amassed over $113 billion in assets, with $10 billion inflows recorded since Trump’s victory in November.
- Institutional Interest: With BlackRock’s IBIT leading the pack, institutional adoption is seen as a harbinger of reduced volatility and enhanced legitimacy.
However, BlackRock’s report tempers optimism by pointing out Bitcoin’s historically sharp drawdowns, ranging from 70% to 80%. While wider adoption could stabilize prices, it may also curtail the dramatic gains that attract speculative investors.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Trajectory?
Bitcoin’s technical indicators signal potential bullish momentum as it consolidates above $100,000. Here’s a closer look:
- Current Price Movement: Bitcoin is up 0.41% at the time of writing, showing resilience after a dip to $96,000 during a selling spree.
- Key Resistance Levels: A breakout above the $115,000 pivot could ignite a bullish rally, potentially driving prices to $150,000 by Christmas.
- Support Zones: Should consolidation persist, support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with $95,000.
- Market Sentiment: Bitcoin’s year-to-date growth of 140% underscores robust investor confidence, despite its inherent volatility.
Balancing Risk and Reward
The BlackRock report advises adopting a “risk budgeting” approach to Bitcoin investments, particularly given its outsized impact on total portfolio risk. While Bitcoin’s low correlation to traditional assets adds diversification, its volatility demands cautious sizing.
For investors eyeing Bitcoin’s potential to reach $150,000, the strategy should account for key risk factors, including possible retracements and the evolving regulatory landscape. As institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin could mature into a less volatile but equally vital component of diversified portfolios.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s ascent past $101,000, coupled with BlackRock’s ringing endorsement, marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin remains a high-reward, high-risk asset poised to redefine portfolio strategies. With technical and fundamental indicators aligning, investors are watching closely—whether for the next breakout or the next buying opportunity at key support levels.
Will Bitcoin’s rally extend to new heights, or will its infamous volatility temper the excitement? Only time will tell, but the stage is undoubtedly set for an electrifying finish to the year.
BTC - The Bulls Are Still Strong!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈BTC has been bullish, trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, BTC is in a correction phase approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong structure and support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
XRP updateHi Guys
As we have specified the purchase range for you before, we said that if the range is maintained, he can serve his opponent.
Now you can see that with the lack of daily stabilization, it has returned below the range and is placed in a triangle.
With failure, he can move to the specified goals.
We will be happy if you give us energy with likes and comments.
OG is trying to return to the trendTo date, the market has consolidated in anticipation of passing the middle of the month and determining the direction for the end of the year. The decision on the US interest rate may have a big impact. But for now, there is still an opportunity for the growth of individual coins with technical signals. TROY is showing itself well, aiming for a breakout of 0.0075. But in this article I want to consider OG, which from the second bottom at the key support of $ 5 can give a trend and catch up with TROY in dynamics. With a successful exit above the previously formed trend line, the nearest target will be a test of the 7.5-9 range. With a successful opening of the second half of the month above 7.5, you can expect the trend to consolidate and further overshoot. For now, the pressure of the unprocessed targets of the bears at 3000-3100 on the ether and 75-85k on the cue ball remains, in connection with which a new wave of sales at the change of the week may be deeper, with a payback after the decision on the US interest rate, in case the dollar weakens. In this negative scenario, OG can test $3.5-$4 where it will be possible to make a top-up, as it was possible to do with TROY. In the medium term, both TROY and OG are good tools with probable.
VIB also gave a new opportunity to re-buy profitably, which, in an optimistic scenario, can turn a weekly candle into a bullish one in order to continue the trend by 0.15 due to the opening of the week above 0.1.