BTC/USDT Weekly update 10.07.2024📌 Trading Instrument: 📌
🔶 BTC/USDT 🔶
📝 Detailed Market Overview: 📝
Bitcoin has finally reached a key confluence zone around the 0.61-0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. At the moment, BTC is showing signs of bearish divergence on the 1-hour timeframe, and a similar pattern is forming on the 4-hour timeframe. Such divergences are typically seen at the end of waves, indicating a potential reversal is approaching.
The current price structure appears corrective, with Wave B being characterized by a sideways abcde pattern, which is commonly observed during Wave B or Wave 4 of a larger trend. However, given the overall market context, it’s more likely that this is a Wave B scenario, as a Wave 4 doesn’t fit the current wave count.
Now, Bitcoin seems to be completing the last Wave C of this corrective structure, which would mark the end of this short-term bullish bounce within the larger bearish trend. Rejection is expected within the next 1-2 hours, unless BTC breaks above $66,000. As long as this level holds, the swing-term trend remains bearish.
Additionally, the entire corrective bounce has been supported by a diagonal trendline, which is currently acting as a key support level. A break below this diagonal trendline would confirm that the top is in, signaling a bearish reversal on lower timeframes. This would align with the broader bearish market trend, and we could see Bitcoin targeting $58,000 as the first key support, with a potential to drop as low as $47,000 in the coming weeks.
🔍 Bearish Signals:
Bearish divergences on the 1H and 4H timeframes.
A potential Wave C completion within the corrective structure.
Key support trendline is at risk of breaking.
🎯 Bearish Targets:
If confirmed, the downside targets include:
$58,000
$47,000
💡 Bullish Case:
If BTC breaks above 66k it will be confrimation its going to break ATH!
⚠️ Disclaimer: 🚫 This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and conduct your own research. 🚫
1-BTC
Bitcoin Market Analysis🔍 Current Market Overview:
Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture! 🔥 After the recent movements, we’ve seen a significant bounce 📈 following the completion of a 5-wave impulsive move to the downside. This has been confirmed through bullish divergences across multiple timeframes (4H, 1H, and 15M). The bounce brought us up to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the last downward move. Now, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, with two main potential outcomes depending on how the market reacts to these levels.
📊 Main Market Scenarios
1. 🐻 Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Wave 3
The primary scenario, based on the current market structure, suggests that Bitcoin may have completed its corrective bounce and is preparing for the next impulsive wave downward. This could represent the third wave in a larger downtrend, typically a powerful push lower.
📈 Current Pattern: The latest move shows an impulsive, corrective, then impulsive sequence, which could either be an ABC correction or simply the first wave of the third major leg down.
🔹 Target: If this is indeed Wave 3, I expect a pullback to the 0.61-0.65 Fibonacci level, followed by a significant move down towards the 51k-47k range.
⚡ Confirmation: A breakdown below 58.8k will confirm this bearish outlook.
⚠️ Invalidation Level: A move above 64.4k invalidates the bearish case. In that situation, we could enter a larger sideways range.
2. 🐂 Bullish Scenario: ATH Break
There is also a bullish scenario, although it's less likely right now. If Bitcoin manages to break above 64.4k, the next potential move could target the 68-69k range. From there, we might see either another leg down or, in the best-case scenario, a breakout towards a new All-Time High (ATH).
🚨 Risk Management: We have clear invalidation and confirmation levels. Proper risk management is crucial to avoid being caught in a choppy market.
🟢 Bullish Case: Breaking the ATH would confirm a strong bullish trend, allowing for smoother trading opportunities rather than getting stuck in a range-bound market on higher timeframes.
💡 Conclusion:
The market is in a pivotal zone. Bears have control as long as 58.8k remains a key support. A breakdown would open the door for much lower levels, possibly as low as 47k. However, any move above 64.4k could shift the market into a more neutral to bullish stance, with a possible test of 68-69k. Stay cautious and manage risk accordingly.
⚠️ Disclaimer: 🚫 This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and conduct your own research. 🚫
BTCUSDT: Why BITCOIN Remains Bullish and Its Next Potential MoveAs you can see, BTC has created Broadening wedge and is also located in the Megaphone , which means that if it breaks, we expect the price to reach the top of the Megaphone .
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN → Bearish Pressure !!!Bitcoin failed to go beyond 63.800 so the price may fluctuate around $60.000 In addition, the bearish wedge shown in the chart can be a negative signal.
Recently analysis
(Daily)
And (weekly)
and
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTC/USDT 4H Trade Setup: Potential for Bullish ContinuationBitcoin’s 4H chart shows a potential bullish continuation after a healthy retracement. The market has pulled back into a key support zone, providing an opportunity to enter this trade with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. The setup aligns well with the optimism surrounding the month of October, often referred to as “UPtober,” where historical data has shown strong price action for BTC during this period.
Technical Analysis:
• Price has retraced to a key Fibonacci zone, signaling a potential buy opportunity.
• The FibCloud indicator shows price maintaining above key support levels, with a bullish breakout being tested.
• Volume is picking up, indicating growing interest at this level, which could push the market higher.
Risk Management:
Given the volatility of BTC, managing risk is crucial. We are placing stop losses just below the last significant low to protect capital in case the market fails to break higher.
Stay alert, and let’s see how this setup unfolds. UPtober could live up to its name!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BTC Trading setups to be forming!There are a couple of setups to be developed.
Current trend indicating potential long setup to first "line" or even short zone. Waiting for nice candle to confirm the idea.
And from the line or short zone obviously sell setup. Waiting for a Bearish HTF closure. INVALIDATION = If we print strong bullish HTF candle, then I will let long setup ride.
Will take partials/manage my position around the trouble area as we can get another long setup.
The ideal scenario is we go from the short zone all the way down to the lows, that's my perfect play but there are many setups for me in this "range". Trade safe!
🔥How much can the Crypto market capitalization grow by 2025🔥Today we want to share with you our observations and thoughts on how the total capitalization of the crypto market can grow in the future.
You have probably already noticed that in all markets the history of market participants' behavior and, accordingly, asset prices is cyclical.
The cryptocurrency market is no exception.
Here is a global chart of the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies in different periods of the market.
Despite the fact that in different periods there were different factors of growth or decline of the cryptocurrency market, such as the ICO alt-season 2017 and the bear market 2018 or the DeFi boom of 2020-2021 and the current exhausting market's decline. There is a clear cyclicality (of course, a statistical error of 1-2 weeks over such a long period of time is acceptable)
So, 1 candle or bar on the chart is 1 trading week and that's what we have:
from the high of 2017 to the low of 2018 - +/- 49 weeks have passed
from the high of 2021 to the low of 2022 - +/- 52 weeks have passed (of course, if an absolute annual minimum was recorded last week)
from 2017 high to "BTC halving 2020" 123 weeks have passed
from the high of 2021 to "BTC halving 2024" may take +/- 125 weeks (the approximate date is April 2024, but the date may move, depending on the capacity that will be connected to mine BTC blocks. Halving will take place on block 840000)
after "BTC halving 2016", the crypto market maintained a rapid growth trend for 77 weeks
after "BTC halving 2020", the crypto market maintained a rapid growth trend for 78 weeks
after "BTC halving 2024", we project a rapid growth trend of 79 weeks. Accordingly, the future growth trend in the cryptocurrency market may reach its maximum around the middle of autumn 2025.
We also designed 2 fractals of a possible path of growth of the total capitalization of the crypto market.
The white fractal indicates growth with a maximum value of +/- $13 trillion.
The blue fractal indicates growth with a maximum value of +/- $26 trillion.
In order to understand whether it is a lot or not, we will give you some examples of the current capitalization of certain markets:
SP500 +/- $33 trillion
Gold +/- $11 trillion
Silver +/- $1 trillion
Cryptocurrencies +/- $800 billion
Earlier, we made an idea where we made similar calculations on the BTCUSDT chart
So, if you are interested in what mark the Bitcoin price can reach at the end of 2025, we invite you to view it:
If you are interested in the current situation on the BTCUSDT chart and the prospects of price movement for the next week, we invite you to read this idea:
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Alikze »» INJ | Reverse head and shoulders pattern - 12H🔍 Technical analysis: Suspect an inverted head and shoulders pattern
- In the analysis presented in the 12-hour time frame, it was mentioned that in case of selling pressure in the range of $25, the correction will continue until the Fibo range of 1.618 in the range of $18.75.
- It is currently moving in an ascending channel.
- It has faced selling pressure in the middle of the channel.
- Due to the formation of the inverted top pattern, in case of breaking the Fibo 1.618 and stabilizing below the 18.75 area, the correction will continue until the liquidity area and the origin of the movement.
- Therefore, according to the zigzag correction structure, this correction can extend to the liquidity area and complete the correction leg C in the specified areas.
💎 Alternative scenario , if it stabilizes in the range of 18.75, it can grow to the middle of the channel in the first step and then to the range of the supply area of $25.
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BINANCE:INJUSDT
BITCOIN IS GOING UP! TA + TRADE PLAN BY BFTechnical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) on the Chart by Blaž Fabjan
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern
The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern, often indicating a potential upward breakout after a period of consolidation.
Resistance and Support Lines:
The chart shows a clear resistance line sloping downward and a support line also trending downward.
The price is approaching the apex of the wedge, where a breakout is likely imminent.
Indicators Analysis:
VMC Cipher B (Market Cipher Indicator):
The divergences on the VMC Cipher B show a series of green dots, which are often used to indicate potential long entry points.
The momentum appears to be turning positive, with the indicator suggesting possible bullish divergence.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The current RSI is at 39.81, which indicates a moderately oversold condition.
An RSI below 40 often suggests that the market is near the bottom, and a potential reversal to the upside is likely.
Stochastic Oscillator:
The Stochastic Oscillator shows 43.44 and 47.50 (K and D lines), hovering near the oversold region but not yet fully bottomed out.
A crossover or upward movement from these levels would provide additional confirmation of a bullish reversal.
HMA+ Histogram:
The HMA (Hull Moving Average) histogram shows recent red bars, indicating negative momentum, but it appears to be narrowing, suggesting that the selling pressure is weakening.
A transition from red to green bars would confirm a shift toward bullish momentum.
Potential Breakout Scenario:
Given the falling wedge pattern and the technical indicators approaching oversold conditions, there is a strong likelihood of a bullish breakout.
The volume is not provided in the chart, but price action suggests decreasing volatility before a potential breakout.
The breakout direction is likely to be upwards, targeting the $65,000 to $67,500 resistance zone initially.
Trading Plan by Blaž Fabjan:
Entry Strategy:
Wait for Confirmation of Breakout: Enter a long position once the price breaks above the resistance of the falling wedge pattern (around $61,500-$62,000).
RSI needs to cross above 45 to confirm momentum is shifting to the upside.
Ensure that the VMC Cipher B shows green dots and the Stochastic Oscillator shows a bullish crossover before entering the trade.
Stop-Loss Strategy:
Place a stop-loss just below the support line of the wedge, which would be approximately around $59,000, to protect against a false breakout or further downside.
Profit Targets:
First Profit Target: $65,000 (previous swing high and a significant psychological level).
Second Profit Target: $67,500 (the next key resistance level after the breakout).
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Aim for a minimum 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
For an entry near $62,000 with a stop loss at $59,000, the first target at $65,000 gives a decent risk-to-reward ratio, with the potential for higher gains if the price continues to climb.
Trade Management:
Trailing Stop: Once the price reaches the first target, move the stop-loss to breakeven (entry point) to lock in profits and manage risk.
Monitor the RSI and VMC Cipher for signs of exhaustion in momentum once the price nears the second target.
Alternative Scenario:
If the price fails to break above the wedge and breaks below the support line, consider reversing the position or waiting for further confirmation of a bearish trend before shorting.
By following my plan, traders can capitalize on the potential upward breakout from this falling wedge continuation pattern while managing their risk effectively.
ICPUSDT - BUY OPPORTUNITYThis one is a low risk - high reward potential for a long-term, equity growth investment.
Considering the future of Ai within the crypto space & blockchain and in general, market growth of Ai to reach trillions of $$$ in the next few years or sooner, the overall growth and future potential integration of Ai within the ecosystem of ICP can help elevate the overall price of ICP - already its implementing Ai introduction within its blockchain and many more applications to follow through in near future. given the reasons, the potential Ai bull run can be explosive for Ai coins and ICP has the greatest potential to overcome its past performance and gain huge growth from here!
My overall investment in this coin is long term hold to potential STP target - I can see this coin to do exponentially well in near future! I will HODL this coin until Ai bull run fully peaks!!!
Pls DYOR and risk only what you can afford to lose! Crypto is extremely volatile and you can lose your entire capital!
Trade Safe Habibis! Good luck to ICP HODLrs LFG!
The key is whether it can rise above 61K
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It was created using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool based on the candlestick of the selected point used when drawing the parallel channel.
Therefore, from a short-term trend perspective, you can see that the area around the right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (59369.59) ~ 0.5 (60650.13) is an important support area.
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Therefore, the key is whether it can maintain the price by rising above 61099.25 after October 11.
If not, and it falls, it is possible that it will finally touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is rising around 52K.
The expected crossover area is expected to be around 56K (56150.01-56950.56).
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(Chart under test)
If the M-Signal on the 1W and 1D charts breaks through the convergence area (1), it is expected to create a new rising wave.
If not, we need to check whether there is support in the area (2).
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BW v1.0 indicator's BW is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates DMI, OBV, and MACD.
The interpretation method is
1. The horizontal line created by touching the 100 point becomes the trading reference line.
2. When it falls below the 80 point, the high point section is displayed.
3. The position is switched around the 50 point.
4. When it rises above the 20 point, the low point section is displayed.
5. The horizontal line created by touching the 0 point becomes the trading reference line.
2, 3, 4. are likely to have volatility, so the corresponding lines are the sections that must be responded to.
In other words, they correspond to the time when split trading is conducted.
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The point to watch is whether USDC can be maintained above 26.153B as the gap decline decreases.
The important support and resistance area for USDC is 32.435B.
If the selling volume of BTC confiscated by the US government decreases and USDT gaps up, I think the coin market is likely to show an upward trend.
If not, it may not be able to digest the selling volume and lead to further decline.
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
We need to check whether there is support near 20313.8.
Since the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, even if it rises, it will eventually fall.
At this time, the point of interest is whether it can receive support near 20313.8.
The most important support zone at the current location is 19582.6.
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The chart consisting of parallel channels and Fibonacci ratios is a chart for chart analysis.
Therefore, if your trading strategy is not properly established when trading with the support and resistance points confirmed by the Fibonacci ratio, you need to be careful because the transaction may proceed in the wrong direction.
Therefore, you must mark the support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
-
The chart that has been used since the past is the chart that shows the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
I think the support and resistance points shown on this chart are the most accurate among the charts I am introducing.
However, it is difficult to see because it is too complex a chart to use for publishing as an idea.
-
I am testing whether I can trade with the trend, momentum, and market strength by comprehensively evaluating MACD, DMI, and OBV.
I am testing it for use on time frame charts below 1D charts.
When using it on time frame charts below 1D charts, you can disable indicators corresponding to 2 and 4 and use it.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.
The next expected range to touch is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to receive resistance in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this range is touched because it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting range.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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BITCOIN below the 60k again! Is this alarming??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today below the $60000 market again for the first time since September 18. The first headlines are already hitting the market calling for more downside. We highly doubt that as no only has the priced formed the first Higher High on September 27 in 6 months, but more importantly the uptrend since the August 05 bottom is supported by a Higher Lows trend-line.
Also, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may have been broken, but as long as the price holds the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has held twice already on August 05 and September 06, the chances of a break-out above the 7-month Lower Highs trend-line are high.
In fact, the pattern since the August 05 bottom appears to be an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). The standard technical target on such occasions is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a $80000 price tag. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, this is the most likely scenario in our opinion.
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My FINAL Bitcoin chart and Idea (forever)Everyone is too busy focusing on the wrong Technicals. Fear and Greed, RSI, MACD, Stock Markets, etc. All of these are good tools but we have to remember a few things:
1. Zoom out (Bitcoin follows the same 4-year cycle every time... this time is NOT different)
2. Keep it Simple (I'm tired of messy charts, only put what you need for the current timeframe)
3. Avoid Leverage (These areas are too risky and much too volatile... liquidity is getting grabbed at almost every level) Stay safe.
I expect Bitcoin to retrace to $57k and then bounce back up... clear skies ahead if we can break out of this pattern I have drawn up. (If not we keep ranging as follows until we break significantly above the previous ATH)
Peace out! It's been fun... I may return to crypto one day (if ykyk)
BTCUSD: October is the countdown to the Cycle's Top.Bitcoin is having a strong pullback today, turning the 1D technical outlook bearish (RSI = 40.457, MACD = -31.100, ADX = 28.196). This is no cause for concern as long as the 1W MA50 holds. In addition, every October after a Halving event has been the start of the Cycle rally and interestingly enough the top has always been formed 13-14 months after! This indicates that we still have more than a year of bullish trend ahead of us with the top projected inside November - December 2025.
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Analyzing Bitcoin Monthly Candle ClosesA lot of notable traders are calling for Bitcoin to drop to 44k or even to around 20.5-21.5k towards an unfilled daily CME chart gap (see daily CME chart below).
Before getting into my thoughts about whether or not we move up or down here, let's remind ourselves of some things:
1.) Bitcoin made its first new ATH back in March 2024, after closing right around the previous Oct 21 ATH in February this year.
2.) Let's also take note of two significant previous monthly ATH candle closes from 2021:
March 21 Monthly Close - 58.8k
October 21 Monthly Close (Previous Monthly ATH - approx 61.3k
Recap of this year
Next, a recap of what has happened since March 24's ATH:
April's monthly candle closed just below that high, but above the March 21 high, losing the Oct 21 level that was broken in the previous month.
Then in May, it reclaimed that Oct 21 high, held it for 2 months, and then lost it again in August with a stronger re-test of the March 21 high, and the strongest wick below it yet... but still closing just above it.
Just after August, the September monthly candle yet again reclaims the Oct 21 high, but is now re-testing that area again this year, also in October again and with 21 days left to go until the monthly close.
So what happens next?
Scenario A - October monthly candle closes above 58.8k, we could still see wicks lower than the one in August, and we could see levels like 44k or even lower prior to close. Remaining above 58.8k still gives Bitcoin a chance to reclaim 61.3k and move up in the months that follow.
Scenario B - October monthly candle closes above 61.3k, with a 2nd reclaim of the Oct 21 ATH, we likely move on up to test or even break this year's ATH.
Scenario C - October monthly candle closes below 58.8k, if November doesn't quickly reclaim that level or 61.3k, we likely see 44k or lower, and may even revisit the unfilled CME gap on the daily chart.
Daily CME Gaps Chart:
Trading Signal For BTCUSDT BitcoinTrading Setup:
A Trading Signal is seen in the BTCUSDT Bitcoin (Futures) (1h)
Traders can open their Sell Trades NOW
⬇️ Sell now or sell on 61555.0
⭕️SL @ 62400.0
🔵TP1 @ 59300.0
🔵TP2 @ 57900.0
🔵TP3 @ 55500.0
What are these signals based on?
Classical Technical Analysis
Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci
RSI, Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands
Risk Warning
Trading Forex, CFDs, Crypto, Futures, and Stocks involve a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Crypto Market will fly!I did a lot of research an analysis, but everything is pointing out to the upcoming rally across the crypto market. When looking at Total Market Cap, it is quite obvious that there is a huge bull flat. If I to trade TOTAL, this would be my setup, but this could only be the very beginning of a huge rally.
$BTC Inverted Head and Shoulders - Max Pain is OverAlmost positive we’ve seen the bottom for Bitcoin at this stage in the game.
Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC waiting for the Golden Cross and daily close above the major resistance trendline ~$68k
Everything we see from here on out is purely market manipulation, nothing more.
58000 important support area of BitcoinWe should wait for Bitcoin's reaction after reaching the support range of 57000 to 58000.
The importance of this support has a great impact on the short-term trend, and if the trend curve is broken, there is a possibility of seeing the range of 39,000 to 41,000.
Share your opinion with me.
Don't forget to boost and follow
Spike in the Bitcoin price in the near futureI have noticed that there is a big discrepancy between the price of Bitcoin and MSTR.
I haven't checked how the trading volumes compare, but my guess is that this arbitrage should have a noticable impact on increasing the Bitcoin price, until the prices of MSTR and Bitcoin find each other in the middle.
The "Middle" is dependent on the price discrepancy and total volume discrepancy.
Why is MSTR at an ATH while Bitcoin is dumping at 60k? Something doesn't make sense here.
Either people closer to the stocks know something about Bitcoin that we don't, or the market became extremely inefficient and there is a great opportunity for arbitrage.
I am not sure how to execute this yet, maybe I leave something in the comments.