BTC - Will we repeat last year price action?Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been trading within a relatively wide range, fluctuating between the $108,000 and $74,000 levels. Over the past several months, the asset experienced a notable decline from its local high of $108,000 down to a low of around $74,000. However, since reaching that bottom, BTC has been on a recovery trajectory, climbing back up toward the $106,000 region as of May. This rebound has brought renewed optimism to the market, but the key question now arises: is this upward momentum sustainable, or is it merely another temporary relief rally within a larger consolidation phase?
To evaluate the potential sustainability of this move, it is insightful to compare the current price action with that of exactly one year ago. In the same May period last year, BTC was also trading within a defined range, between $73,000 and $56,000. The pattern that unfolded then may offer clues as to what might happen next.
At that time, Bitcoin formed a double top, a classic technical pattern that often signals weakening bullish momentum. This structure developed over two distinct peaks, let's call them Point 1 and Point 2. Following the double top formation, the market began to retrace, initiating a decline that led to the creation of Point 3. This low established a key trendline, marking the beginning of a longer-term structural setup.
After bouncing from Point 3, BTC managed to rally once more, approaching a new all-time high but falling just short. This rally formed what can be referred to as Point 4, and notably, this occurred in May, exactly where we are now on the calendar. However, this attempt to break to new highs ultimately failed. The market lost momentum, and BTC turned downward once again, culminating in another test of the established trendline. This next low, which we can label Point 5, occurred in July and served as the third touchpoint of the trendline, reinforcing its significance.
Fast forward to the present, and it appears that Bitcoin may be following a similar structural path. The current price action suggests that Points 1, 2, and 3 have already been formed in recent months. The bounce that we’re witnessing now could potentially be developing into Point 4, mirroring the rally seen last May. If history were to repeat or even slightly rhyme, we may be approaching a local high, after which the market could face renewed downward pressure.
Such a move would align with a third touch of the longer-term trendline, potentially occurring in the coming months, perhaps around July, just as it did the previous year. Furthermore, this prospective downside move would also serve to close a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has remained largely unfilled, a technical factor that many traders are currently watching.
In summary, while the recent price recovery in Bitcoin is encouraging, a closer examination of past market structure and recurring seasonal patterns suggests caution. The market may be setting up for a local high in May, followed by a potential retracement that would once again validate key support levels and trendlines. Whether this scenario plays out in full remains to be seen, but the parallels with last year’s behavior are worth noting for any trader or investor closely monitoring the charts.
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