BTC to $74,616What do I always say? FVGs always get touched! It's been a week of institutional sell-offs, most likely preparing for Trump's US Reserve buy. But if we focus on BTC, where are we at? The weekly FVG at $80,353 is now looking likely to get touched (and also at 2σ from aVWAP), and if it gets filled, we will be looking at ~ $74,616 - which also corresponds with the 3σ of the aVWAP from the US Election. So, there is a strong confluence at this level.
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin: Wave 4 or Wave goodbye...to this variantIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Bitcoin Wave 4?: Key Levels & Critical Juncture
Bitcoin’s recent price action has put traders on edge, as we continue to push into the deeper reaches of the Wave 4 territory. The market rejected 99-100K, aligning with expectations, but it took a deeper path than my bullish outlook preferred. While I caught the correct direction, this move is now at a critical juncture where bulls need to step up—this is their last chance to hold this count as a probability and regain momentum, IMO.
Losing Ground on This Count
A clean break above 99K never materialized, reinforcing bearish sentiment and increasing the likelihood of further downside. The bulls have struggled to gain control, and without a strong push, this count risks full invalidation. At this stage, I remain cautious, knowing that sticking to weak counts is a losing game.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 86.6K – Immediate obstacle for bulls to reclaim 📈
🔹 92K – The real test; a reclaim here would suggest bullish intent 🎯
🔹 75K – Next major support if bulls fail to hold structure ⚡
What Comes Next?
If this variant is going to stay on the probability list, it has to prove itself now. It was cautiously at the top of the list, but has broken the key levels and ideal price action I was looking for to keep it there.
Bitcoin is at a make-or-break moment—will it find strength, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. 🚀
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
GOLD, NAS, & BTC Daily Overview: Whole Market BleedingDXY is fundamentally bullish but this recent bearish retrace has allowed us to put risk on for a few weeks but the last few sessions have been hungry for correction.
We all know that before we can continue to rally, it will be wise to allow the market to collect more supporters at better pricing. This alongside inefficient price delivery zones will make easy targets for sellside revisit market wide.
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Bitcoin Update: Critical Support & Elliott Wave Levels To WatchBitcoin here is the thing...
1. For now drop is not impulsive, so can be correction
2. 4th wave pullbacks will ideally stabilize near 50/38.2%. Just testing the important zone 77k-85k
3. Old high and unfilled gap are crucial to cause a bounce, otherwise the major high is in
4. You don't want to see this fourth wave breaking the lowest base channel line, otherwise top is in.
5. Bullish resumption for wave 5 when/if 93700 overlaps
6. This market wont go up unless risk-on is back
GH
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis: Critical Decision Zone
Market Structure & Trend
The price is currently trading within a parallel descending channel.
It recently tested the parallel channel support, which has been respected in the past (marked with green circles).
A temporary bounce has occurred, but the structure remains bearish until a breakout confirms a shift in momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone : Around $83,000 - $85,000, where price reacted strongly.
Resistance Zone : Around $89,000 - $91,000 (highlighted in purple), a key rejection area.
Major Downside Target:
If price fails to hold above support, it could drop towards $75,000 - $78,000.
Possible Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
If BTC breaks above the purple resistance zone and reclaims the mid-channel trendline, we could see a move towards $95,000 - $100,000.
A strong breakout with volume confirmation will validate this bullish reversal.
❌ Bearish Scenario
If BTC faces rejection at the resistance zone and fails to hold above the parallel channel support, a further drop towards $78,000 - $75,000 is likely.
Confirmation of bearish momentum would come with a lower low formation.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a critical decision point.
Breakout above $91K = bullish continuation.
Rejection & break below FWB:83K = deeper correction ahead.
Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Trade responsibly.
Bitcoin Rally in a few months...The price has been ranging for a few months and will last another few months.
It's time!!! The rally is coming soon, time to accumulate for investors and its time for teachers to grab the boat and ride.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Here's the reason why you need to enter now:
Accumulation phase: Bitcoin’s price and on-chain metrics, such as active addresses and long-term holder supply, support this phase.
Market Cap: Bitcoin’s market cap remains significantly below its ATH.
Historical Cycles: Bitcoin’s historical price patterns and market behavior often align with future rallies after accumulation.
Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin is widely considered a hedge against inflation and is gaining adoption globally.
&
Technological Growth: Developments like the Lightning Network and increased scalability are factual and ongoing.
Good luck!
BTC at a Make-or-Break Level Bitcoin is at a tipping point. If it stays under GETTEX:87K , we could see a drop to $80,806, and if that doesn’t hold, $75K is on the table. But if BTC breaks through GETTEX:87K , momentum could push it to $88,800, and a move past $92,121 would signal the correction is over and the uptrend is back. This is a key moment—let’s see where it goes.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
BTC SHORT TP:80,500 27-02-2025Bitcoin continues to display bearish patterns, particularly on the 1-hour timeframe. We can anticipate a movement towards the 80,000 - 81,000 zone, making it a good moment to consider a short position with a tight stop-loss.
This trade should materialize within 10 to 15 hours; otherwise, it will be deemed invalid. Stay updated and follow me to keep capitalizing on profitable opportunities!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-27: Weekday FLUSH PatternToday's Weekday FLUSH pattern is similar to a CRUSH pattern. It usually represents a very wide-range price bar with the potential for a big breakdown or breakaway type of price action.
Given yesterday's fairly wide price action and the NVDA earnings last night - I would not be surprised to see quite a bit of profit-taking in early trading, leading to an initial downward price trend, then moving into a basing/bottoming phase after 12-1PM ET.
In other words, a fairly large DIP/Sell-off leading to a base/bottom, then flipping bullish through the end of the day today.
Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ will continue to try to push higher in the Excess Phase Peak pattern - reaching a peak between March 5-10 (only about 5-7+ trading days away).
Thus, we don't have a big rally ahead of us - only about 3-5+ days of a fairly strong rally over the next 5-10 trading days.
Now that the selling pressure has abated, metals should be forming a base or bottom. Get ready for an explosive move higher.
BTCUSD has broken downward and is not in the larger consolidation phase. This phase will likely continue for at least 2+ weeks before we attempt to move into the search for the Ultimate Low (likely below $75k).
Buckle up. Things are about to get very interesting.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTC – History Doesn’t Repeat, but It Sure RhymesBINANCE:BTCUSD
Revisiting past market structures, it’s striking how Bitcoin’s price action in early 2025 resembles the patterns seen in early 2024. The comparison between the two charts suggests a clear fractal—an almost identical deviation above the range highs, followed by a liquidation event under the range lows before a reversal.
In early 2024, Bitcoin’s price deviated above the established range, trapping breakout traders before swiftly rejecting and flushing out liquidity below the range lows. That deviation marked the absolute bottom before a strong recovery, as the market left behind those who were waiting for even lower prices.
www.tradingview.com
Now, in early 2025, we're witnessing an eerily similar setup:
🔹 A deviation above resistance that lured in late longs, followed by a sharp drop below support.
🔹 A liquidity flush below the range lows, where overleveraged longs are shaken out.
🔹 Sentiment has shifted bearish again, with traders now expecting $70-75K just as they anticipated $35-31K last year.
While I won’t completely rule out lower prices, I find it unlikely that Bitcoin will drop as deep as many expect. The fractal suggests that we may already be near the bottom, setting up for a reversal.
This is why I’ve been scaling out of my protective shorts and accumulating spot positions. As always, patience is key—market reversals happen when the majority least expect them.
Keep an eye on confluences, stay sharp, and don’t get left behind.
BTC/USDT chart shows a Round Top (or Distribution) patternPattern Breakdown
Formation:
The chart displays a rounding top shape, where BTC price gradually increased, peaked, and then started declining.
The red shaded area represents the curved top, confirming a distribution phase.
Key Levels:
Peak: Around $110,000 (approx.).
Neckline/Support: ~$90,000, which was broken to the downside.
Measured Move: The expected drop is roughly equal to the height of the rounding top, which was around $21,300.
Breakdown & Target:
The price has broken below the $90,000 support level, confirming the pattern.
The expected price target based on the pattern is around $70,000, calculated using the height of the round top.
Additional Observations
Volume: There is an increase in volume at the breakdown point, which validates the bearish move.
Momentum: If BTC fails to reclaim $90,000, it may continue downward.
Conclusion
The chart signals a bearish trend continuation after breaking the neckline.
BTC could drop towards $70,000 unless buyers step in to regain momentum.
If BTC reclaims $90,000, the bearish scenario could be invalidated
Correction period of BTCAs of now i can see here in 1D chart market has broke its FIB level (0.236) 87,500$ , so there is a high probability that it may touch its next level which is (0.382) 73,750$ after its retest (91,000$ - 87,000$) region. After that market may show a NEW HIGH, but for that it should respect its next level (0.382) 73,750$. Which is also it's weekly Support level.
This is my opinion which may differ from yours.
Thank you.
February 25 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
The Nasdaq indicator will be released at 12 midnight tonight.
In the case of Bitcoin, it is coupled with Nasdaq and is falling without asking.
Since there is no short position entry point yet,
I proceeded a little safely until today because there was a risk factor.
*Long position strategy when the blue finger moves
1. Purple finger at the top 90394.5 dollars
Autonomous short operation section / Stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. 87759.5 dollars Long position entry section / Stop loss price when green support line is broken
3. 92340 dollars Long position 1st target -> Top, Gap in order of target price.
Since it can rise strongly from dawn,
I did not operate a separate short position.
(In the case of Tether Dominance, since it is difficult to sweep from the current position, if it is not a direct crash, the rising pattern is maintained, so the part that is gradually broken is included in the strategy.)
There is an additional autonomous long entry position in the first section at the top.
The purple finger touch -> 87.7K from the current position is the safest,
and if it goes down right away, it is a long wait in the second section.
If you look closely at the green support line,
you will see a bright sky blue support line.
I used the falling wedge section as a long position.
(Daily support + weekly central pattern and candle tail)
Among the patterns I have been waiting for,
Because it is the first touch of the central line of the Bollinger Band weekly chart,
I will find the next support line and operate it from today's departure from the second section until this week.
Up to this point, my analysis article is simply asking for your help.
I will see you tomorrow depending on the participation rate today.
I hope you operate safely with the principle of trading and cut-off price.
Thank you.
XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff Event UPDATEWe await the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the distribution Phase. The price has fallen to SUPPORT as we predicted. Once a LOWER LOWER is formed, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish. Falling as low as 2815.
BULLS :
If the price can respect the support and bounce back above 2910 with strong bullish momentum, we can see the price rally back up to the 2950 area.
BEARS :
If the price creates the lower low as we are expecting around 2860-2880. Then look for the price to:
1. retest support as far back up to 2910.
2. dramatically fall and continue its pullback as low as 2800-2820
#BITCOIN DO OE DIE CONDITION!#BTC Market Update
BTC closed its daily candle well below the GETTEX:87K support, which is a bearish signal. Currently, it appears to be retesting this level.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim GETTEX:87K + on a daily close, it could indicate further downside movement. However, if BTC manages a daily close above GETTEX:87K , this could be the last opportunity for bulls to regain control and push the market upward.
Keep an eye on the daily close for confirmation of the next major move.
Stay tuned for more updates.
DYOR, NFA
#Bitcoin
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if Stocks Crash?I have read different speculations on what might happen to the price of Bitcoin if the stock market were to crash. I am going to answer this using statistics, correlations, and examples of events from market history. This post will not speculate on the current nor future price movements of Bitcoin and Stocks; only their connection. I will be using the Tradingview Bitcoin Index INDEX:BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF AMEX:SPY
What is a "Crash?"
I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration decline of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison.
Time Range
I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish.
How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up?
I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks.
How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks?
The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far more often and to a greater degree positively correlated to Stocks.
At the extreme Bitcoin is more highly correlated to Stocks than it is ever negatively correlated (0.93 versus -0.76)
Bitcoin is move often positively correlated to stocks. 75% of weeks Bitcoin and Stocks are positively correlated
0.70 is considered "high correlation" and 33% of weeks exhibit high correlation
On the contrary, less than 2% of weeks are ever highly negatively correlated
Historical Crashes
Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted.
2021
2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%.
COVID
COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low.
2018
Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half.
Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62%
Conclusion and Analysis
I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more.
This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin.
Trade wisely.
Altseason Might Still Come...? Here's Why:A contrarian take—altcoin season could still be on track, and the script hasn’t been broken.
🔥 Left chart:
Before the past 2 altcoin seasons, the market touched the trendline (light blue) and consolidated at the lows.
🔥 Right chart:
Over the past two days, BINANCE:BTCUSDT saw a sharp drop, yet altcoins ( CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D ) gained against BTC for two consecutive days, showing a decoupling from BTC’s price action.
One key characteristic of altcoin season is when altcoins rally with CRYPTOCAP:BTC but don’t drop when BTC falls.
What do you think?
Leave a comment!
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🔥 for more future "guesses" like this!
BTC is still bearish (1D)A resistance flip zone has formed on the chart, we have a bearish CH, and a supply zone has been created.
The common area of the supply and flip zones is a low-risk region for another Bitcoin short.
With these bearish signs, Bitcoin is expected to at least reach the green zone.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BITCOIN trading plan 25/2/20251. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing signs of a potential sell opportunity, with a target set at $82,000.
2. Traders should closely monitor market trends and resistance levels before executing any sell orders.
3. If Bitcoin approaches the $82,000 mark, it may face profit-taking pressure, leading to a price correction.
4. Technical indicators, such as RSI and moving averages, can provide additional confirmation for the sell strategy.
5. Market sentiment and external factors, including regulatory updates and macroeconomic trends, should also be considered.
6. A disciplined approach with proper risk management will help traders maximize profits while minimizing potential losses.
7. It is crucial to set stop-loss levels to protect against unexpected market reversals.
8. Historical patterns suggest that after reaching new highs, Bitcoin often experiences temporary pullbacks.
9. Traders should stay informed about institutional activities, as large sell-offs by major holders can impact price movements.
10. While Bitcoin remains a strong long-term asset, short-term traders can capitalize on volatility by strategically selling at key resistance levels.