BTC at a Critical Juncture: Should You Top Up Your Long Position🚨 BTC at a Critical Juncture: Should You Top Up Your Long Position? 🚨
Bitcoin's price action looks fragile as we enter the year's final days. With BTC hovering near the $92,000 - $87,000 support zone , traders are closely watching whether this key area will hold — or if a break below $90,000 will open the floodgates for further downside.
The Setup: What's Happening Now?
BTC is trading at $93,070 , testing major support.
Failing to hold $92,000-$87,000 could invalidate bullish setups and signal a bearish reversal.
The market is thin due to the holiday season, increasing the risk of snap volatility and liquidity sweeps .
Key Factors to Watch
1. Critical Support Zone:
The $92,000 - $87,000 range is where buyers have historically stepped in to push BTC higher.
A break below $90,000 would be a bad sign for BTC and may lead to downside targets of nearly $80,000 .
2. Indicators:
Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI): No strong bullish reversal signal yet. Look for a Green Setup progression or daily price flip confirmation.
RSI: If RSI approaches oversold levels (~30), it could signal an opportunity to DCA or add to your long position.
3. Macro Risks:
Upcoming unemployment data may inject volatility into an already illiquid market .
The broader risk-asset sentiment remains cautious, with global liquidity conditions weighing on bulls.
Trading Decision: Should You Add to Longs?
Yes, IF:
BTC successfully tests and rebounds from $92,000 - $87,000 .
Look for supporting signals like a Green Setup progression or bullish divergence on RSI.
No, IF:
BTC breaks below $90,000 on high volume.
This would invalidate the current support zone, signaling more downside potential.
Risk Management Tips
Stop-Loss: Place it just below $87,000 to minimize risk.
Take-Profit: Target $95,000 - $100,000 , but scale-out gradually if resistance strengthens.
Leverage: Use 2x leverage cautiously , ensuring proper risk control.
Closing Thoughts
BTC is at a make-or-break moment. The $92,000 - $87,000 support zone could be a solid entry point for long positions if it holds — but a breakdown would bring downside targets like $80,000 into play.
What's your take on BTC's price action this week? Are you adding to your long position or waiting for confirmation? Let's discuss this in the comments below! 👇
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin's anti-gift for the new year!Technically it looks pretty sad and I think the chart will move through the fibonacci levels. I wouldn't expect any gifts before the end of the year, just another spill and discounts. I think you will hear more words at the New Year tables that altcoins is a scam.
The liquidation levels also confirm my theory, the decline is programmed.
Horban Brothers.
Bitcoin Must Correct Around 60K Before Any More GrowthIt seems to me like Bitcoin is overdue for a correction, probably to 58K - 65K levels. It seems pretty hard to imagine that it will go much higher until this correction takes place. Stoch RSI looks very heavy on the weekly. It will be interesting to see if alts tank as well, or if this will signal the beginning of alt season. Let's wait and find out.
BITCOIN // daily countertrendAfter reaching the weekly target fibo 323.6 , the market broke the structure on the weekly chart (closed below the weekly impulse base).
This impulse looks nice on the H4 chart as well, and a long countertrend of this counter-impulse has been formed.
This minor long trend (the countertrend of the countertrend) is breaking at the short trigger zone (red).
If this happens, the correction fibo 38.2, and later even the 50 can become target in the valid countertrend.
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Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
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We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds.
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
ADA/USD on high timeframe
"Regarding ADA, as anticipated in the previous analysis, the price broke through the $0.75 zone and experienced a sharp rejection. I foresee the price reaching a new higher high at $1.50. However, if the price closes below $0.70 on the high timeframe, this analysis may prove to be incorrect.
BTC is accumulating momentum, how should long and short position
BTC has recently fallen from a high level. The price turned and fell from the high point of 108340 to 92542 to stop falling and adjust. So far, BTC has entered a short-term decline.
The price on the hourly line rebounded to the support of 92542 and rose. The price failed to hit the integer of 100,000 for the second time, forming a double top decline structure. The current trend fell back to 93500 and entered a narrow horizontal consolidation stage. The resistance of 96000 above is under pressure. If this position breaks, the hourly line descending channel will be broken. In the short term, the price will test the 100000 line above. The support of 93500 below, if this position breaks, the short-term rebound trend will end and test the 92542 line below.
On the whole, BTC entered the accumulation stage after the short-term double top fell. The price has also reached near the top of the hourly channel. However, there are many resistance levels above. Even if the downward channel is broken later, the trend will enter the horizontal range structure. But if the trend breaks down, then there is more room for imagination for the price below to continue to fall.
In terms of operation, I personally think that BTC will continue to rebound and short before the channel breaks up.
For long orders, wait for the price to break through the 100,000 level before participating.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracementtool fans will like this one XD
Fibonacci Retracement is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels. Based on the Fibonacci sequence, this tool helps traders predict price pullbacks and continuation levels in trending markets.
What is Fibonacci Retracement?
Fibonacci Retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical pattern where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.). Key ratios from this sequence, such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%, are used to indicate potential price reversal or continuation zones.
How to Use Fibonacci Retracement
1.Identify a Trend:
- In an uptrend: Draw the Fibonacci retracement from the swing low to the swing high.
- In a downtrend: Draw the Fibonacci retracement from the swing high to the swing low.
2. Key Levels:
-23.6%: Represents shallow pullbacks; usually seen in strong trends.
-38.2% and 50%: Common retracement levels where price often consolidates or reverses.
-61.8%: Known as the "golden ratio," a significant level for potential reversals.
-100%: Indicates a full retracement of the trend.
3. Support and Resistance Zones:
- Price may bounce or consolidate near these Fibonacci levels, acting as dynamic support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend.
How to Interpret Fibonacci Retracement Levels
-Reversal Zones:
- If the price retraces to a Fibonacci level and then resumes the trend, it confirms the level as significant.
- **Breakouts:**
- A break above or below a Fibonacci level may signal continuation in the direction of the breakout.
Strengths of Fibonacci Retracement
-Simple to Use:Visual and straightforward for identifying support and resistance levels.
-Widely Applicable:Works across various markets (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.) and timeframes.
-Combines with Other Tools:Enhances the effectiveness of indicators like RSI, MACD, and trendlines.
Limitations of Fibonacci Retracement
-Subjectivity:The placement of swing highs and lows can vary among traders, leading to different retracement levels.
-Lagging Nature:Like most technical tools, Fibonacci Retracement relies on past price action and doesn’t predict future movement.
-False Signals:Not all retracement levels lead to reversals, especially in volatile or news-driven markets.
Best Practices for Using Fibonacci Retracement
1.Combine with Other Indicators:
- Use with momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) or candlestick patterns for stronger confirmation.
- Pair with trendlines or moving averages to validate Fibonacci levels.
2.Use Multiple Timeframes:
- Analyze Fibonacci levels on higher timeframes for broader trends and lower timeframes for precise entries and exits.
3.Set Realistic Expectations:
- Don’t rely solely on Fibonacci levels for decision-making. Use them as part of a broader strategy.
Example of Fibonacci Retracement in Action
Imagine Bitcoin (BTC) last uptrend movement which I'm showing here, and the price moves from $67,000 to $106,000. After reaching $106,000, the price begins to pull back. By applying the Fibonacci Retracement tool from $67,000 (swing low) to $106,000 (swing high), you can identify key levels at $97,000(23.6%), $91,300 (38.2%), $86,700(50%), and $82,100 (61.8%). If the price retraces to $ 91,300 and bounces upward, this confirms the 38.2% level as strong support. (Green line)
(shown on the chart)
Conclusion
Fibonacci Retracement is a valuable tool for traders seeking to identify potential price reversal zones and continuation points. While it’s easy to use, its accuracy improves when combined with other technical indicators and a thorough understanding of market conditions. Practice drawing Fibonacci levels on historical charts to develop confidence and refine your trading strategy.
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BTC on high timeframe , wait for more information about price
"Hello traders, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Let's talk about BTC in the high timeframe. As indicated on the chart, the $90k- GETTEX:92K range is a critical zone. To mitigate risk, it's advisable to wait for the price to reach this zone and observe its behavior for further signals. If the price sharply breaches and closes below this range on the high timeframe, the next potential price levels could be $75k-$80k. However, if the price merely dips below GETTEX:92K , forming a candle pattern like FVG on the 1-hour chart, it might present a good opportunity for a long position."
BTCUSD most read caption BTC/USD is presenting an ideal opportunity for a sell position if you're targeting a broader downtrend. Alternatively, traders can capitalize on the current market fluctuations with scalping strategies to secure quick, short-term gains. Always prioritize risk management and stay vigilant with your trading plan.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) AnalysisBitcoin is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend in the medium term. The price is near the lower trendline support, suggesting a potential bounce. Support Zone: $92,000 – $94,000 (green area) This zone has provided strong support during successive pullbacks. Resistance Zone: $100,000 – $102,000 Bitcoin has struggled to break this level, which is a major resistance. If BTC maintains the current support and breaks the $100,000 resistance, the next target could be the upper channel boundary around $110,000 or above. A breakdown below $92,000 could invalidate the ascending channel, with a potential decline to $88,000 or lower.
Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments!
DYOR. NFA
BTC - Mind the GapVERY IMPORTANT: This is not a prediction in time. In fact, there's a 40-45% chance of one more high in BTC. But, what is pointed out here is the target, whether it turns around here completely or makes a new high.
You would be hard pressed to find a gap that hasn't filled since the inception of BTC futures. There's always a "This time is different" and I've heard every one of them since the inception of this contract.
Gaps are a place in time where the market became extremely imbalanced (assuming the market has adequate liquidity). The market is always looking to find balance, so even if the gap holds for hours or days, it commonly revisits that old price area. Traders like to say “all gaps fill,” but the timing can be erratic. If it takes too long, you might go broke before it closes.
It’s not a strategy by itself—context is everything. After the gap, I watch bar-by-bar follow-through. If momentum is strong, the gap might wait days or weeks to fill. If bars stall and reverse, the gap fill typically starts quickly. When the gap is left behind, it's only a matter of time.
As I said, it is not a strategy in and of itself, so you would be wise to overlay it with other market concepts and the narratives that affect the market you're trading.
One I left on the screen is the dashboard, which pulls over 100 signals from 14 indicators used in many trading systems. This metric sums to a bearish outlook (but it always will at the bottom of a downtrend too, so there is still no silver bullet).
The orange line is predicated on k-clustering, Fibonacci systems, price action patterns, trend rules.
The path is consistent with Elliott Wave Theory. There are other patterns that could develop, such as a prolonged B-wave (as a part of a larger 3-wave configuration rather than the 5 shown), a triangle. or some other pathing.
Timing is hard to predict because time is not a critical feature of price development. Prices and price derivatives are the critical features and from those we can derive levels and paths (patterns). So timing is hard because time is irrelevant to price progression.
...something you're probably not going to be taught anywhere.
Bitcoin's Path: $70K Correction Imminent
Alright, let's use the historical data on that BTC/USD weekly chart as a foundation for my forecast. After seeing the way Bitcoin has moved in the past, I want to use that data to make some educated guesses on what might happen next.
Key Points from Our Historical Analysis
Here are the key points I'm using for my forecast:
Large Bull Cycles: Bitcoin has shown the ability to make huge moves upwards, with gains reaching 500% or more. I will be mindful of this upside potential as a key point of my plan.
Significant Corrections: Every major bull run has always been followed by a major correction, often with drawdowns of 50%, or even 80%. I understand that these corrections are not random, they are part of the natural price action of BTC.
Recent Move: The recent move to 100k was a major sign of bullish activity.
My Bitcoin Forecast:
Based on these historical patterns and my understanding of market dynamics, here's my outlook for the next major move for Bitcoin:
Anticipated Correction: Given the recent strong move, and the fact that we are entering the $100k psychological price point, I anticipate a significant pullback from current levels. I want to see a test of the $80k range, and possibly even the $60k range.
Estimated Drawdown: Based on prior drawdowns, I expect to see a retracement of at least 30%-50% from the recent high (100k), which can bring the price down to a range between $50,000 and $70,000.
Next Bullish Upside: After this retracement, I anticipate another bull phase. The percentage gained on these next phases may be less than the previous, but there is still potential for a massive move. I will be looking for confirmation of a reversal in trend before I jump back into a trade.
Potential Upside Target: If this retracement does not go below the 60k mark, and then moves upwards, I would then start to target $150,000 as a mid term target.
My Strategy for the Coming Months:
Patience: I will be patient, and I will not chase the price upwards. I will wait for the market to confirm a clear trend before placing any new trades.
Risk Management: I will be using a stop loss at all times, to manage my risk during these periods of high volatility.
Confirmation: I will wait for the technical indicators and price action to confirm any upside moves.
Important Notes:
Not Exact Science: This is a forecast and not an exact science. No one can predict the future. This is simply an estimate using technical analysis to show the most probable outcome.
External Factors: Other factors not shown in the chart, such as news events and market sentiment may have an impact to prices.
Bitcoin Correction Signals Major Rally AheadBTCUSDT (Day Chart) Technical analysis update
BINANCE:BTCUSDT current price movement is forming a pattern similar to the December 2023 to February 2024 chart. At the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin experienced a gradual 20% correction before recovering and rallying by over 90% in the following months. This time, the price is exhibiting a similar behavior to December 2023's price action, having already dropped 15% from its peak. A maximum correction of 20% from the peak is anticipated. Once this correction concludes, a strong bullish move is expected, with a target price of $140,000 to $150,000.