Where are we with BITCOIN ? 4hour, Daily and Weekly charts tell I am hearing so many people shouting about "This is it, we are on the way"
It may turn out to be right BUT for me, It seems people are looking at the smaller Time Frames only.
Sure, the main chart here is a 4 hour chart, has been climbing from around 76K ( Told you we would go there )
Looks Lovely and Bullish, though a return to 80K is very possible on the lower trend line
Lets Look at the Daily.
And there it is, Even though on a shorter Time Frame, we seem to be climbing, and we are, it is in fact, all with in a DESCENDING channel
But do not worry, a Bullish sign is that PA does appear to have broken over that Upper trend line of resistance.
We need to wait , probably till next week, to see if this remains Bullish or not.
It is Wise to take note of that Fib Circle that we are coming to in the next couple of weeks. If we get trough, we will hit resistance increasingly from 91K
And so now the weekly - this is a different chart to the Daily
The Bigger picture ALWAYS tells us the reality of the situation. and that is simply that PA is currently on a line of strong Local support (dashed line )
Should this fail, we have strong support below, all the way to 70K.
Be fully aware, this COULD FAIL. We are Mid channel, MACD is still falling Bearish and at current rate of descent, will arrive at Neutral near end of April
The Bullish note is we are still above the 2.272 Fib extension. Sentiment is rising, Selling is Slowing
So in conclusion, we are in a Good place.
PA is becoming stronger and we have support below and PA has remained in "channel" for 3 weeks.
That is NOT Bearish
But we are also NOT in a Bull Run yet.
But, for me, I think we are certainly getting ready/.
As I have said, April may see Volatility, March looks like it may Close GREEN but htis has a week to go yet...
Bullish Caution is what I say - And so expect anther Drop out of this rising channel.
It would present excellent Buying opportunity and reset MACD quicker.
Aere we en-route to the New ATH ? We are getting Near but I still say the stronger probability for The CYCLE TOP ATH that is Early Q4
1-BTCUSD
Crypto liquidations drop 76% as Bitcoin $BTC stabilizes aboveCrypto liquidations plummeted by 76% in the second half of March as Bitcoin BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC consolidated around $87,000 after earlier volatility. From March 12 to March 25, Bitcoin's price moved within a narrower range, starting at $82,857 and closing at $87,330.
Earlier in March, Bitcoin BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC saw sharp price movements, dropping below $79,000 before rebounding, coinciding with a spike in long liquidations. The recent decline in liquidations signals more stable market participation and reduced leverage risk.
Between March 12 and March 25, long liquidations totaled $1.26 billion, while short liquidations reached $1.14 billion, down from 7$7.2 billion in long and $2.8 billion in short liquidations from February 24 to March 12.
I have revised the description of the big picture
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I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
-
I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges.
Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of observation is whether it can receive support and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range.
In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain the details again when the bear market starts.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-25-25 : Top PatternToday's Top Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will find resistance slightly above yesterday's closing price level and attempt to roll over into a bearish price trend.
Watch today's video to see which levels I believe will be the top for the SPY & QQQ.
I do expect metals to rally over the next 3+ weeks and I'm watching for this morning's bounce to carry onward and upward.
Bitcoin should be rolling downward off that FWB:88K top level I predicted months ago.
We are moving into a topping phase - so get ready for the markets to attempt to ROLL DOWNWARD over the next 5+ trading days into a deeper low price level.
Get some.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Potential Bullish Breakout Towards $89khello guys!
In the 4-hour Bitcoin/USDT chart from Binance, a clear ascending trendline supports price movement, indicating a potential bullish structure. Here are the key observations:
Technical Analysis
1- Ascending Trendline Support
The price is respecting an ascending trendline, which has provided multiple touches and acted as a dynamic support level.
A bounce from this trendline around the $83,000-$83,500 range suggests strength in buyers.
2- QML (Quasimodo Level) Formation
A QML (Quasimodo Level) pattern is visible, which typically signals a strong reversal zone.
Price has already reacted to this level, indicating it could be a key turning point before further upside movement.
3- Major Support Zone
A larger support area is identified around the $76,900-$77,600 range that support the price before!
The upper boundary of the ascending channel and the psychological resistance at $89,621 serve as the next major target.
The price could test this level in the coming sessions, provided it maintains its bullish momentum.
_____________________________
Conclusion
Bitcoin appears to be in an uptrend within a rising channel, with bullish momentum building. If the ascending trendline continues to hold, the next significant target would be around $89,000. However, a break below the QML zone could lead to a retest of lower support near $77,000. Traders should watch for confirmation of trend continuation before entering long positions.
March 24 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There is an indicator announcement at 10:35,
The Bollinger Band 12-hour chart is touching the resistance line,
But it has not reached the center line of the daily chart.
A gap section is created at the bottom.
The blue finger is a short->long switching strategy,
And I just applied it to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
*Red finger movement path
Long position strategy
1. $86,837.7 long position entry section / stop loss price when purple support line is broken
2. $90,418 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd target
The 1st section at the top
is the rising wave section for today's strategy to succeed
(Section for utilizing autonomous short section)
From the 1st section touch
The probability of the strategy succeeding increases.
Refer to Nasdaq movement.
The 2nd section at the bottom seems to be around 1+4 sections
The mid-term pattern is broken from the bottom touch.
After that, the possibility of the bottom gap reversal increases, so please note
Today, since it's been a while, I'll leave it as public
and go in.
Up to this point, I ask that you use my analysis as a reference only
I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 2H Analysis: Potential Bullish Continuation or30 EMA (Red, 86,440): Indicates short-term momentum.
200 EMA (Blue, 85,153): Represents long-term trend support.
Support and Resistance Zones
Support Zone (Purple Box - ~86,271 to 85,153): Price is likely to bounce from here.
Resistance Zone (~87,149 and above): Breakout above this could push price higher.
Trade Setup
Entry Consideration: The price is currently testing a demand zone (purple) after a pullback.
Target (Take Profit - 90,118): Expecting a bullish move.
Stop Loss (~86,658 or lower): To manage risk.
Potential Price Action
If Bitcoin holds above the purple demand zone and 30 EMA, it could rally to 90,118.
A breakdown below 86,271 could push it toward 84,366 or lower.
Conclusion
Bullish Bias: If price holds above the support level.
Bearish Risk: If it breaks below the purple zone.
Recommendation: Monitor support at 86,271 and 85,153, as a bounce from these areas could confirm an uptrend.
BITCOIN - Key Buying Area 74K - 76K Range At Wave iv Low...In this video, I break down a potential scenario that could initiate a major surge in Wave v of Wave 5.
If this is the final move, it should be strong—possibly even sharper than Wave iii.
I outline the key buying zone, which represents the lowest point price may reach before reversing into a powerful impulsive move.
My plan is to go long within the $74K–$76K range, adding to the position as momentum builds.
Ideally, I’m targeting $120K, as it aligns with the length of Wave iii.
Based on my analysis, the low for Wave iv is likely around March 31st, with $73,880 acting as key support. Stay tuned for more updates!
S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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BITCOIN historically sees huge rally when Gold peaks. This time?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming, slowly but surely, out of a consolidation following the test and hold of its 1W MA50 and one of the reasons it is about to rally strongly may be flying under the radar for the majority.
That reason has to do with Gold (XAUUSD) and its long-term Cycles. As you can see on this 1W chart, every time Gold peaked in the past 10 years, BTC started the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle. Equally during Gold's past 2 Cycles, when it revisited that peak and tested that Resistance, it made a Double Top and declined again, which for Bitcoin was translated into a Bear Cycle confirmation.
With the help of the Sine Waves, we can be expecting that Gold Double Top in early April 2026, which means that by that time BTC will already be in its new Bear Cycle. As a result, it is suggested be already out of the market with our profits by the end of 2025.
So based on all that, if Gold makes its Cycle Top now, which is highly likely, Bitcoin will start a parabolic rally. Now, will it be the strongest of its Bull Cycle as the past Cycles suggested? Could be, but even if its not, it should be enough to replicate the late 2024 one and give one final opportunity for profit making.
But what do you think? Is Gold's potential peak here give a very favorable rally to Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD Bitcoin Long in short-midtermBTC trend is changing,seems temporarily (Until April2nd 2025) it is builidng a support.
Intrady apporaches:
CONSERVATIVE
and aggressive
I cover the stops of others intraday,also profit targets and sell positions of midterm bears,to re-enter long .Simple.
The hiigh volatility guarantees fast moves,but also imbalances,and I take them as my advantage.
Your stop should be individual,because stop means to everybody something different.Some use levels,some use %-risk of account balance or initial balance.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Trading Setup 📊 Chart Overview & Market Context
The provided chart represents Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) price movement on the 1-hour (H1) timeframe, highlighting a Rising Wedge pattern. This pattern is generally bearish and signals a potential reversal or breakdown.
Over the past few trading sessions, BTC has been moving inside an ascending wedge formation, making higher highs and higher lows. However, this movement is narrowing, indicating weakening bullish momentum. As BTC approaches a critical resistance level, sellers appear to be gaining control, increasing the likelihood of a sharp decline.
This chart outlines a well-structured bearish trading setup, identifying key areas of resistance, support, stop-loss placement, and potential downside targets.
📌 Technical Analysis & Key Levels
🔹 1. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal Signal)
A Rising Wedge is a technical pattern characterized by:
✔ Two upward-sloping trendlines, converging over time.
✔ Diminishing bullish momentum, as higher highs become weaker.
✔ Breakdown expectation, where price typically falls below the lower support trendline.
📉 Why is this pattern important?
The rising wedge signals that buyers are losing strength and that a reversal is likely.
When price breaks below the lower boundary, selling pressure increases, leading to a strong downward move.
Traders often anticipate a breakdown from this pattern to enter short positions.
🔹 2. Resistance Level (Key Rejection Zone)
📌 Zone: 88,500 - 89,500 USD
This area has acted as a strong resistance, preventing further upside movement.
Sellers stepped in, causing the price to reject and start declining.
A confirmed rejection from this level adds bearish confluence to the setup.
🔹 3. Rising Wedge Support (Breakdown Level)
📌 Zone: 85,000 - 84,500 USD
This is the lower boundary of the wedge pattern.
If BTC closes below this level with strong volume, it confirms the breakdown.
A retest of this level as resistance after a breakdown would provide an ideal short entry.
🔹 4. Key Support Levels & Bearish Targets
Once BTC breaks down, the next areas of interest are:
📌 First Bearish Target: 80,500 - 79,500 USD
A previous demand zone where buyers previously pushed prices higher.
BTC could pause here before continuing lower.
📌 Final Target (Full Breakdown Projection): 76,802 USD
If the wedge pattern fully plays out, BTC could drop toward this level.
This aligns with a major historical support zone, where significant buying interest could emerge.
🔹 5. Stop-Loss & Risk Management
📌 Stop-Loss: 90,483 USD
If BTC moves above this level, it invalidates the bearish setup.
Keeping a tight stop-loss ensures controlled risk while maximizing potential rewards.
📉 Trading Plan: How to Trade This Setup?
✅ Short Entry Strategy:
Enter a short trade once BTC breaks below 85,000 USD, confirming the wedge breakdown.
If BTC retests the broken support (now resistance), it offers a second entry opportunity.
✅ Stop-Loss Placement:
Place a stop-loss above 90,483 USD, in case of a bullish breakout.
✅ Take-Profit Levels:
First Target: 80,500 - 79,500 USD (Support zone)
Final Target: 76,802 USD (Full wedge breakdown projection)
📌 Key Takeaways & Market Sentiment
🔸 Bearish Structure Formation: BTC is losing momentum inside a rising wedge, signaling a potential downturn.
🔸 Breakdown Confirmation Needed: A close below 85,000 USD with volume confirms the bearish trade setup.
🔸 Risk Management is Key: The stop-loss above 90,483 USD protects against invalidation.
🔸 Watch for Retests: If BTC retests the breakdown level, it can provide an ideal entry point.
🚨 Bitcoin is showing early signs of a bearish reversal! If the rising wedge breaks down, a significant decline toward 76,802 USD could follow. Traders should monitor price action carefully and execute the setup accordingly. 🚀
BTCUSD 1H | POI Reaction Setup After Sweep – Short Flow by CelesBTC tapped into a clean POI zone after sweeping highs.
A market structure shift (MSS) formed, showing early signs of bearish intent.
Price is now reacting from the zone, and we’ve mapped the clean flow toward the 2H demand base.
Invalidation is clearly marked — a clean break above 88,005 would flip the bias.
Precise POI, projection, and target laid out.
— CelestiaPips
BTCUSD 2H | Breakout Flow + BOS Confirmation – CelestiaPipsBTC is slowly developing a breakout structure on the 2H timeframe .
Multiple bullish BOS points and a solid NY session demand base formed.
Price is currently retesting the breakout zone after sweeping short-term liquidity.
If price holds this zone, we could see continuation toward 88,900.
I’ve mapped out the entire flow – BOS, entry zone, and final target.
Watch how price reacts from this level.
— Shared by CelestiaPip
BTC READY TO EXPLODE? POTENTIAL 1H ENTRY!Hi traders! , Analyzing Bitcoin on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential entry :
🔹 Entry: 87,509 USD
🔹 TP: 92,003 USD
🔹 SL: 81,206 USD
BTC is respecting the trendline and maintaining its bullish momentum. If this support holds, we could see a continuation toward 92K. RSI is overbought, but price action remains strong.
⚠️DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
Position Open in BTC! Ready for TakeoffHi Traders ! Bitcoin has reached a key support zone, where it has historically shown bullish reactions. Additionally, the RSI at oversold levels (21.66) reinforces the possibility of an imminent rebound.
🔥 I have already entered long, expecting a bullish move toward the $85,500 - $86,000 zone, with a possible extension to $89,000 - $90,000 if it breaks the descending resistance.
📈 Key Factors to Watch:
✅ Confirmation of the bounce at support.
✅ Increase in buying volume.
✅ Break above the 20-period EMA.
Let’s see how this plays out! What are your thoughts? 🔥
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am simply sharing my analysis and personal trade. Always do your own research before trading!
BTC IMF Tracking, Liquidation Frenzy, and Market PredictionsBitcoin's recent price action has been a rollercoaster, marked by significant gains, dramatic liquidations, and a confluence of macroeconomic factors that are shaping its trajectory. From the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially tracking Bitcoin in cross-border finance to speculative predictions of a potential $87,000 surge, the cryptocurrency remains a focal point of intense market scrutiny.
One of the most noteworthy developments is the IMF's increasing recognition of Bitcoin's role in global finance. While the IMF previously issued warnings to El Salvador regarding its Bitcoin adoption, its decision to now track Bitcoin in cross-border financial flows signals a tacit acknowledgment of the cryptocurrency's growing significance. This shift reflects a broader trend of institutions grappling with the reality of digital assets, forcing them to incorporate these assets into their analytical frameworks.
Simultaneously, the Bitcoin market has witnessed a surge towards the $87,000 mark, triggering a wave of short liquidations. This phenomenon occurs when traders who have bet against Bitcoin's price are forced to close their positions at a loss as the price rises. The sheer magnitude of these liquidations, exceeding $110 million in a short period, underscores the volatility and the inherent risks associated with leveraged trading in the cryptocurrency market. The total market liquidations surpassing $200,000 in 24 hours only highlights the dramatic price swings and the vulnerability of short positions.
Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics is the emergence of another CME gap in the $84,000–$85,000 range. Historically, these gaps, which represent discrepancies between trading prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and other exchanges, tend to be filled, suggesting a potential pullback in Bitcoin's price. This pattern creates a sense of uncertainty, with traders weighing the potential for further gains against the possibility of a corrective downturn.
Furthermore, the surge in Bitcoin open future bets on Binance, with an increase of $600 million, indicates heightened price volatility. Open interest, which measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts, often correlates with price movements. A rise in open interest alongside a price increase typically confirms an uptrend, but it also signals the potential for sharp price swings as more capital enters the market.
Market analysts are divided on Bitcoin's future trajectory. Some predict a "brutal bleed lower," while others foresee a break towards new all-time highs in the second quarter. The critical level to watch is $93,000. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level as support, it would significantly reduce the risk of a fresh collapse. However, until this threshold is breached, the market remains vulnerable to downward pressure.
On a more positive note, the S&P 500's reclamation of its 200-day moving average provides a potential tailwind for Bitcoin. This technical breakout in equities, coupled with similar signals in the cryptocurrency market, could indicate renewed bullish momentum. The correlation between traditional financial markets and Bitcoin has become increasingly apparent, with positive developments in equities often translating to positive sentiment in the crypto space.
Adding another layer to the narrative is the potential softening of the stance on reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump. Some analysts see this development as a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin bottom. Any relaxation of trade tensions could boost investor confidence and create a more favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Finally, the concept of tokenized US gold reserves, as proposed by NYDIG, presents an intriguing long-term prospect for Bitcoin. While gold and Bitcoin are fundamentally different assets, the tokenization of gold on a blockchain could enhance the overall legitimacy and infrastructure of digital assets. This increased institutional acceptance could indirectly benefit Bitcoin by further integrating blockchain technology into mainstream finance.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's current market landscape is characterized by a blend of institutional recognition, intense trading activity, and speculative predictions. The IMF's tracking of Bitcoin in cross-border finance underscores its growing relevance, while the liquidation frenzy and CME gap highlight the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. The interplay of macroeconomic factors, technical indicators, and speculative sentiment will continue to shape Bitcoin's trajectory, making it a fascinating asset to watch in the coming months.
Weekly Analysis for Week 13 2025!Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Did you managed to get some pips from EURUSD before the mid week reversal ?
Or did you catch some pips from EJ as well?
No? Missed out on it? No worries, check out my trading analysis for next week (week 13) to get some insights and tips for the potential moves in the Forex market!
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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HOOD - Get Great PricingNASDAQ:HOOD and I have had a mixed relationship over the years. I have had my biggest win on the HOOD brokerage (5,000% options trade, $1200 into 60k) and at the same time I was present for the Derogatory removal of the GME button (of which I had sold before they took that button).
After many years and brokerages, I find myself returning to HOOD but this time much more experience... To my surprise, I love the platform, and I still recommend it for new traders for the ease and UI. Honestly, unless you are dealing with BIG Volume or Hot-Keying out of Low float Penny stocks, It will suit you just fine.
Now Let's Talk HOOD.
In this MASSIVE range we are looking at High $67, and a Low of $35. Thats a 47% drop!
Although we have recovered a bit, Many are eager to find a way to get in the range. Here I have put together 2 scenarios to help you play your position with confidence.
Better Price = Better psychology
Whether we are shopping at grocery store, or if we are buying a car. Getting a good deal feels better. But how do you feel when you know you overpaid?
TLDR: The best deals are the lowest purple zone "Extreme Demand" if you are Long, "Reinforced Supply" (at the top) if you are looking to get short or take profit.
Under the HOOD
Currently Robinghood is running into a little bit of a supply zone labelled "Weak Supply"
This is a new player, and we don't yet know how just how big this player is. So far they have absorbed some of that buying pressure coming in, but I would not be surprised if they we overtaken or even gapped above come Monday. This brings us to our first Scenario
Scenario 1: Blue line
With the break above "weak supply", there is headroom all the way until 51.74. This is where we will see some supply initially and maybe a small rejection.
Why would it not reject back down to a demand area like 41? Great question.
If this overtakes that "Weak Supply" zone, this will make a strong case that there is momentum behind the wheels here. I think there will be a new player reinforcing this buying if this happens all the way to the Finale at $58.01. From here I would consider taking some profits, maybe partials, or looking for some Puts.
Scenario 2: Red line
Getting Rejected by "Weak supply" would be evidence that this move was fluff. Those two demand zones may try to hold a bit, but with the lack of buying interest in the
$45 area, this won't make those buyers feel confident.
This is different story when comparing to the "Extreme Demand" zone (lowest purple zone). Buyers here have PROVEN that this is something they are very interested and they are not done accumulating yet. So from this location buyers feel confident that they are getting a good price*( see fn. )
From here this should drive demand up again, crushing shorts, and sending another nice squeeze to test that supply at 51.71
WHEW! if you made it this far, I appreciate your time!
Upvote/Follow if you enjoyed this idea, there are many more to come!
Happy trading!
* (This is a good price, because buyers are showing that it is. Although, if it did come down here, this would be the 4th test of this area. I still think there will be strong demand here, but this isn't the best tests. 2nd and 3rd were stronger.)
Bullish bounce?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 85,975.56
1st Support: 83,546.45
1st Resistance: 91,753.89
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The start of the first important volatility period of the year
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Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This is the first day of the volatility period.
The key is whether it can rise from the downward channel.
This volatility period is expected to last until March 26.
The point of interest is whether it can break out of the downward channel and receive support near the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).
If not, we should see if it can find support near Fibonacci 2.24 (83646.12) and rise without going below the downtrend line.
If it holds above the downtrend line, we should see if it can rise above Fibonacci 1.618 (89050.0) during the next volatility period around April 5th.
In any case, if it breaks out of the downtrend channel and holds, I think it is likely to turn into an uptrend.
-
(1M chart)
As I mentioned before, we should not forget that there is no trend line formed by the low point of the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart, so volatility may occur to create a trend line.
Therefore, whether it can complete the trend line while receiving support near the 69000 ~ 73499.86 range and rising is an important point of observation from a long-term perspective.
In this sense, what we can choose is to see whether it can receive support near the current location, that is, the StochRSI 50 indicator point of 83983.20.
If the support is broken, it can fall along the downtrend line.
This period of volatility is expected to be the first important period of the year.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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