Bitcoin update 21.03.2025 (6 more months of bull market)Bitcoin Update : 6 Months Left Until the Bear Market
You asked for a Bitcoin update — here it is. I don’t post updates too often because I’m currently focused on developing my academy. But let’s get straight to the point.
Where Are We Now?
There are only 6 months left until the end of the current bull cycle . My vision remains unchanged: we’ve gone through a correction and are now forming the bottom of this move. This is a classic consolidation phase, where the market is preparing for its next big push.
I’m still bullish, but it’s important to remember that we’re in the distribution zone . This means upward movement will be accompanied by volatility and local pullbacks.
What to Expect in the Coming Months?
The next 2 months are likely to be monumental. We’ll see new highs, but in 2 months, most people will have already forgotten about this forecast (as usual). People tend to ignore long-term trends until they become glaringly obvious.
However, publishing exact targets on the chart right now isn’t the smartest move. We might not even reach them, as emotions and news drive the market.
Key Moment: May 2025
In May, there will be a major announcement in the US regarding cryptocurrencies . This will be a turning point. The market is currently moving based on the current sentiment, but after May, things will change. When politicians start talking about crypto, it’s our signal to exit.
My Take
Don’t underestimate the importance of timing. When everyone starts talking about Bitcoin, it’s already time to get out. Until then, we’ll see growth, but keep this in mind: the next 6 months are for closing positions, not opening new ones.
Be prepared for a significant correction after September — more than 50% from the peak . This is a natural process that repeats itself over and over again.
Conclusion
The market moves in cycles. They work like clockwork:
151–152 weeks of growth (bull cycle).
51–53 weeks of correction (bear cycle).
We’re nearing the end of the bull cycle. Act consciously, stay disciplined, and remember that success comes to the patient.
Best regards, EXCAVO
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
1-BTCUSD
BTC: Accumulate energy for the rise and soar into the sky!📍BTC's volatility has narrowed, with selling pressure showing signs of weakening. Throughout the choppy price action, the 84000-83500 zone has established itself as a critical support area in the short-term structure. This level now serves as a key defensive line.
📍Following this consolidation phase, BTC may stage a rebound from this support region. If the price manages to break through the resistance around 84800 with strength, further upside momentum could drive it towards the 90000 level.
🔎Trade Idea:
BTCUSD:Buy at 83500-83000
TP:84500-85000
SL:Adjust according to risk tolerance.
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Theory.This is just a theory about CRYPTO:BTCUSD
I think we’re going to see a lot of global economic problems in the near future. THEY will try to preserve THEIR capital with gold and Bitcoin, as the stock market stagnates.
I believe we’re in the BUBBLE RUN, but the key question remains open: “At what stage of the BUBBLE RUN are we?”
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-21-25 : BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern may show up in the form of an Island Top or break-away to the upside if my analysis is correct.
I see the markets stalling over the past few days, potentially setting up a "last breakaway" type of pattern today.
I've highlighted how these "last" patterns work where price sets up a peak or trough (in this case a peak) as a last/exhaustion move and how this move can sometimes be very aggressive.
I urge traders to stay cautious today as we are moving into a MAJOR REVERSAL weekend.
I believe the markets will suddenly change direction next week (early) and will move back into downward trending by March 25-26.
Gold and Silver may rally today if the markets move into that Exhaustion Peak pattern. Keep an eye out for Gold/Silver/Bitcoin to potentially rally today and into early next week.
Overall, traders should stay very cautious as we move into next week's peak/top/rollover.
Don't get too aggressive trying to prepare for the rollover or any potential upside move over the next 3-5+ days.
Let the markets show us what and when we need to be aggressive.
Get Some.
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Bitcoin in coming days ...frankly, Bitcoin will reach $89000 in the coming days.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin, interest rate effects, Macro events since 2021 - UPDATEThere is one very simple takeaway for me from this chart and that is simply that raises and Lowering of interest rates had Very little Effect on Bitcoin
It is more the effect it had on other organisations and the sentiment that followed Bitcoin and the traders.
For instance, From Jan 2023, when we saw Bitcoin begin its recovery, interest rates continued to rise.....and had NO effect on the Bitcoin recovery
And I think this continues to this day.
After the First push higher by Bitcoin in 2023, PA went into a Long range...in this time, interest rates began remaining at a static level. Bitcoin did not rise because of this.
When BTC was ready, it made a push higher again, interest rates were static and remained so while BTC entered another long range in 2024
It could be said that BTC PA rose once Rates were reduced but PA leveled out again even while the next rates decision was to reduce.
Bitcoin has its own agenda, it is NOT dependant on the USA to control its choices
On Each range, the MACD on the weekly timef rames was OVERBOUGHT.
And it is currently resetting having been overbought again.
This s NOTHING to do with interest rates.
MACRO events do have an impact though and we need to pay attention this this
But over all, Bitcoin is GOOD, BULLISH and getting ready for its next push
Have a Nice day now
BTCUSDlasr analysis was 100% worked i hope you all had a good time, as we look at weekly chart and see potentionl continue sell on btcusd, till ob+fvg, let see a strong pull back to take short postion. i hope weekly chart as i draw my like easy to understand. let me know in the comment what you think ..?
BITCOIN Will this historic level break too?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is its main Bull Cycle Support, despite the recent volatility. As mentioned numerous times, in periods of uncertainty it helps you maintain an objective long-term perspective if you zoom out and look on the wider time-frames.
On this 1W chart, we can see that so far all of BTC's Cycle's have followed the same pattern. The Bear Cycle bottoms and the first bounce of the Bull Cycle aims at breaking above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (blue Arc). It is what we call the 'Growth Channel' that guides the market from its Cycle bottom to break above the ATH Lower Highs and when it does the Parabolic Rally Phase (green Rectangle) starts. The most aggressive part is when the price breaks also above its Growth Channel.
This is the only Resistance level that has yet to be broke on this Cycle. If it does, the market will explode to Targets above $200k that will start putting it to capitalization levels that would require earth shattering catalysts in terms of adoption. A continuation of expansion within the boarders of the Growth Channel however can easily target $150k. Notice that throughout the whole process of the Growth Channel expansion on all Cycles historically, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to hold and support.
So what do you think will happen this time? Will Bitcoin break above the Growth Channel and offer us another proper Parabolic Rally or will it be a more standard rise within it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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(BTC/USD) – Rising Wedge Pattern - Critical Breakout Setup🔍 Market Overview & Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently forming a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which is a bearish signal indicating a potential reversal. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, but the narrowing wedge suggests that buying momentum is weakening.
BTC has been battling a major resistance zone around $85,000 - $87,500, struggling to break higher. If Bitcoin fails to hold above the key support level at $80,000, we could see a strong downside move. However, if BTC breaks the upper resistance, the bearish setup may be invalidated, opening the door for a push toward $95,000+.
📉 Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish Formation)
A rising wedge occurs when the price moves upward within two converging trendlines, making higher highs and higher lows but with a weakening bullish momentum. This pattern often breaks downward, leading to a sharp sell-off.
Characteristics of This Wedge Formation:
✅ Upward Sloping Support & Resistance Lines: BTC is trending higher, but the slope is narrowing, showing a loss of bullish strength.
✅ Decreasing Volume: Volume is declining as price moves higher, indicating buyers are losing control.
✅ Bearish Breakout Probability: Rising wedges typically break down 75% of the time, suggesting a high likelihood of a drop below support.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Zones (Potential Breakout Levels)
1️⃣ $85,000 - $87,500 → Strong resistance; BTC has repeatedly failed to break above.
2️⃣ $90,000+ → A confirmed breakout would invalidate the wedge and shift the trend bullish.
3️⃣ $107,000 Target → If BTC breaks above resistance, we could see a move toward the psychological $100,000 - $107,000 level.
🔻 Support Levels (Bearish Breakdown Zones)
1️⃣ $80,000 - $82,000 → Key support within the wedge; a breakdown confirms the bearish move.
2️⃣ $75,000 → Strong historical demand zone; BTC could bounce here if it drops.
3️⃣ $70,000 and Below → Ultimate bearish target if selling pressure accelerates.
📈 Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Rising Wedge Breakdown)
🔴 Entry: Below $80,000 (confirmed breakdown).
📉 Stop-Loss: Above $83,500 (to avoid fakeouts).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $78,000
TP2: $75,000
TP3: $70,000
🔹 Confirmation: Look for increased selling volume and a retest of $80,000 as resistance after breakdown.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance)
✅ Entry: Above $87,500, confirming bullish momentum.
📉 Stop-Loss: Below $85,000 (to minimize risk).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $90,000
TP2: $95,000
TP3: $107,000
🔹 Confirmation: BTC must break the wedge’s upper boundary with strong volume for bullish continuation.
📊 Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment
🔵 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently near 60 – Showing bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
A move above 70 could signal an overbought market and potential reversal.
🔴 Volume Profile
Volume is decreasing as BTC rises, suggesting a possible exhaustion of buying power.
A breakout should be accompanied by strong volume to confirm bullish strength.
🟢 Moving Averages (EMA & SMA)
BTC is trading above key EMAs (50 & 200), supporting the bullish case.
A breakdown below the 50 EMA could accelerate selling pressure.
📢 Final Thoughts: High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
🚨 BTC is at a critical decision point! The rising wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal, but confirmation is needed. If BTC breaks below $80K, expect a strong sell-off. However, if bulls manage to break above resistance, BTC could rally toward $100K+.
🔹 Risk Management Tip:
✅ Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
✅ Use stop-losses to protect your capital.
✅ Monitor volume & key levels for stronger trade signals.
🔥 What’s your take on this setup? Will BTC break down or push higher? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
BITCOIN - Depth of Correction Update...After identifying an error in the recognition of Wave D, Please be aware that price is likely to continue lower than expected and may find support at the 50% or .618 retracement areas. Trade accordingly and I will post an update later today.
Last pivot high is 84,857
BITCOIN - Wave Count Update For Long Trade Idea...A slight shift in the overall interpretation of this structure.
We're still watching for a break above 93K for confirmation, but for those who trade with leverage, this analysis could provide an edge.
If it plays out as expected, we may see a fairly tight stop.
A decisive move higher is needed soon to confidently validate this setup.
BTC Breaks Structure - Key Levels to Watch PLUS Trade Idea!Bitcoin has broken structure to the upside on the daily timeframe, confirming a bullish trend 📈. I’m considering a buy opportunity, but only if the key conditions discussed in the video align.
Right now, BTC is in a strong uptrend, with a well-defined higher highs and higher lows structure on the 4-hour timeframe 🔍. In this video, we break down the trend, price action, market structure, and other essential aspects of technical analysis to navigate this setup effectively.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
BTCUSD PUUL BACK Double Top Resistance Could Trigger a Reversal
The chart assumes a breakout, but a double top is typically a bearish pattern. If price gets rejected at this resistance, it could signal a strong downtrend instead of the projected bullish move.
Support Might Not Hold
The analysis assumes a bounce from support, but price recently dropped aggressively to that level. If buyers fail to hold, a break below support could push price lower toward $83,200 or even $81,200.
Bearish Volume Presence
The recent large red candles show strong selling pressure. This could indicate that sellers are in control, and any upward move might just be a bull trap before further downside.
Resistance Overhead is Strong
The resistance zone around $86,400-$87,200 is a major supply zone. Even if price moves up, sellers could aggressively step in at that level, limiting upside potential.
BITCOIN approaching the critical 1day MA50 test.Bitcoin / BTCUSD has found the support it desperately needed on the 1week MA50 and rebounded.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of its Cycle, the 1day MA50.
Every time this broke in the last 2 years, the market started a strong rally.
Buy and target 140000, which would be just under the Pi Cycle Top.
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BTC: Capture buying opportunities accurately📍Fundamentals: From a macro perspective, with increased government endorsement, cryptocurrencies are gaining greater credibility and popularity in the market.
📍Technical Analysis:The downward momentum of BTC is showing signs of exhaustion, with multiple rebounds forming a structural bottom that provides strong support. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact. The key support zone to monitor is 83000-82000.
📌If BTC fails to break below this level in the short term, a rebound is likely, with upside potential targeting the 88000-89000 range.
🔎Trade Idea:
BTCUSD: Buy at 83000-82000
Target (TP):88000-89000
Stop Loss (SL):Adjust according to risk tolerance.
📩Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish.
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BTC at a Crossroads: Bull Trap or Moon Mission?A possible bearish scenario is playing out on BTC, but hey—just one of many possibilities before the real bloodbath begins. 👀 This could just be a classic trap to lure people in before shaking them out. The key resistance zone is between GETTEX:97K and $101K, a big range to clear. If we flip it and close above $102K on the weekly, that would be amazing—but let’s be real, we’ll need a strong catalyst for that. If we do, then we’re likely talking about the $120K range.
On the flip side, if we drop lower from here, the most obvious support sits at $72K. Below that… well, let’s just say we don’t wanna go there—next real support isn’t until $50K. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope we don’t see those levels. Big decision point ahead—let’s see who wins this battle! ⚔️🚀