BTC's Tug-of-War: 67K Dip or 76K Breakthrough?GM crypto bro's, happy weekend! Fear & greed index is at 74 (greed), with the stoch RSI nearing oversold. BTC still hasn’t closed below 69K, hinting at a possible pump to 76K. However, in this greed-driven state, it might be hard for BTC to rally up.
Current price action suggests a potential drop to 67K is more likely. But probabilities are just that—possibilities. Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage risk. I'm Akki, signing off with one chart. Have a great day & stay SAFU.
1-BTCUSD
BTC LONG 1 HR TP:73000 01-11-2024After observing a manipulation, we are currently witnessing a brief consolidation phase that could potentially lead to a rise towards the 72,000 - 73,000 range. Following this movement, we may either see a strong breakout or further consolidation before a subsequent decline. We will update our analysis based on the first movement. It's important to note that this analysis is on a 1-hour timeframe, so if the price does not rise within the next 20 to 30 hours, this scenario will be considered invalid. Stay tuned for updates and manage your positions wisely! #Trading #Bitcoin
Bitcoin Uber Bear If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Uber Bear update.
Followed path and patterns laid out 1 month ago.
If you are at the hard right edge, and the market followed the path laid out and reacts in an area identified, does that mean the #Elliottwave count is 100% correct?
No, need the PA to prove it.
A continued swift move down and break of 65k, will add weight to this variation.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.
Bitcoin: Double Top Or Buying Op?Bitcoin missed all time high by 200 points. Are you long from the RISKIEST price location since March? If you observe this price action from a larger time frame (weekly), you should recognize the failed high which is a variation of the classic double top formation. If you got long betting on the break out (on this time frame) and a red candle develops the next day or so (see arrow), that is usually a good reason to exit in order to avoid the 6K to 8K associated risk. Rather than getting stuck in a painful position, it is far more effective to gauge the probability and RISK in advance and adjust to it. Let me explain.
There is no question, Bitcoin is generally strong, but that does NOT guarantee a break out will follow through. Betting on break outs is a viable strategy, you just have to know how to manage the position if it fails. The main idea here is you MUST accept the fact that there is NO WAY To know if the break will fail or succeed in advance. All you can do is ask: if it fails, how much risk am I taking? And your answer will depend on the time frame you are operating within. The larger the time frame, the greater the risk. In the case of the daily chart, the next support is the 68K to 66K area (old resistance/ new support).
Also when taking such a trade, you should be acting on specific entry criteria (some kind of pattern) that provides some level of objectivity to your decision making process. IF you got long as a reaction to a price spike. or worse, as a result of consuming mainstream news, you will find out the hard way that acting on low quality information makes you a profit opportunity for someone else. For optimal results (and to profit from those who react to noise) you MUST have a clear decision making process that defines profit objectives/risk the same way for EVERY trade or investment you make (Trade Scanner Pro).
So what about buying this pullback? That is sensible BUT I have yet to see a buy signal. The location is attractive (see illustration), but without a signal there is no way to measure risk. The other important point is to have a realistic profit objective in terms of PROBABILITY OF PROFIT. While a "higher high" is likely in a bullish trend (74K+?), you have a greater chance of exiting green at a lower price (test of 71.5K). This decision depends on your degree of confidence and willingness to embrace risk. While price is favored to make the higher high, there is NO guarantee. Accept the fact that there is NO WAY to know for sure. You place a bet and hope it works out. And if not, you have a plan in place to control the risk. That is the trader mentality in a nutshell.
If you look at my previous articles, my forecasts (illustrations) have been wrong. I have been anticipating a retrace to a support, but Bitcoin does not agree. It is important for you to understand that at highs I will usually look for a pullback and at lows I will look for a bounce. While this does not work 100% of the time, it has helped me effectively navigate this range bound market that Bitcoin has been gyrating within since March and has yet to break out of.
Unlike many "gurus" I do not pretend to be able to forecast the future, I simply play the probabilities, just like going all in on pocket aces before the flop. It doesn't ALWAYS work, but probability favors a positive outcome because that is the strongest hand you can start with.
The more time you factor into an idea, the less of a chance you have of being accurate. This is because markets are HIGHLY random. Price has retraced off the high and that is ideal for a swing trade long (which can be good for a few days/week). Its just a matter of confirmation at this point. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily BTCUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 68,452$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Update on USDT.D: Is Alt Season on the Way?According to my chart and the breakdown of strong dynamic support up to the psychological resistance of 5.00%, the dominance of Tether has now risen for confirmation of a drop to a critical area where static and dynamic resistances have converged. In my opinion, Tether's dominance will experience a significant drop to 3.80. Moreover, it is possible that the U.S. elections may have a sharper impact on it, leading to a drop that is direct and without fluctuations.
Bitcoin is going to 63k???!!!Hey guys!
I know it's weekends, but some of the markets are working today and I decide to talk about current BTC position.
So, we're making this cool off, which is also almost full A correctional wave and in 2 days we have US elections, which can be really affective.
Plus the volumes have convergence with the movement RSI is still uncertain, and MA cross on 4H is bearish.
For me, we could easily fulfill the C wave and after we can find the next enter point.
Your thoughts? How elections will influence?
BTCUSDT Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,754 on a 4-hour chart, showing signs of consolidation within a sideways range between approximately $68,649 and $70,080. After a recent rally, the price seems to be stabilizing as it tests its moving averages.
Key Observations:
Consolidation Zone: Bitcoin is moving within a purple box range, suggesting indecision in the market as traders await the next direction.
Moving Average Support: The 50-period (yellow) and 20-period (gray) moving averages provide dynamic support levels. A break below these could indicate increased bearish momentum.
Potential Breakdown: If Bitcoin fails to sustain its position within this range, there’s a likelihood of a downward move targeting the next major support at $66,100.
Smart Money Trading concepts 101🔸The Smart Money Trading concept, often used in Forex and stock trading, revolves around the idea of tracking the moves made by major institutional players (like banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) rather than retail investors. Smart money strategies aim to identify and follow the price action patterns that large investors create, as these institutions often have access to more market-moving information and capital than individual traders.
🔸A critical part of this approach is understanding market structure, which includes concepts like Higher Highs (HH) and Lower Lows (LL). These patterns help traders determine the current trend direction and potential reversals, which can inform trading decisions.
Here's how these concepts fit into the Smart Money Trading framework:
1. Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) in an Uptrend
▪️When the market is in an uptrend, it typically forms a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows:
Higher High (HH): Each new peak in the price is higher than the previous peak.
Higher Low (HL): Each new low is also higher than the previous low.
▪️This pattern signifies strong buying interest, indicating that smart money may be accumulating positions in anticipation of further price increases.
▪️Traders look for breakouts beyond previous highs, as it often signifies a continuation of the uptrend.
▪️If the price breaks a recent Higher Low, it may indicate potential weakness and a possible trend reversal.
2. Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH) in a Downtrend
▪️In a downtrend, the market structure often forms Lower Lows and Lower Highs:
Lower Low (LL): Each new low is lower than the previous low.
Lower High (LH): Each high in the price action is also lower than the previous high.
▪️This pattern signals that selling pressure is dominant, suggesting that institutional investors might be offloading positions.
▪️Traders watch for prices to break the most recent Lower High for potential continuation signals in the downtrend.
▪️If the price breaks above the most recent Lower High, it can indicate that the trend may be weakening, signaling a potential reversal or entry opportunity.
3. Using HH and LL to Spot Trend Reversals
▪️Trend Reversal: When a series of HH and HL in an uptrend shifts to LH and LL (or vice versa), it often signals that a reversal is underway.
▪️Smart Money traders use these shifts to spot market traps where retail traders might be misled, allowing them to capitalize on new trend directions as they unfold.
4. Smart Money Concepts in Action: Liquidity and Price Action
▪️Large players need liquidity to execute significant trades without causing excessive slippage (or price movement). This liquidity often exists near recent highs and lows.
▪️By analyzing HH, HL, LH, and LL patterns, smart money traders can identify areas of liquidity where institutions might step in.
▪️For example, a series of HHs might attract retail buyers, providing liquidity for smart money to enter or exit positions.
5. Application in Trading
▪️By following HH and LL patterns, traders can align their positions with smart money rather than getting caught in fakeouts or market traps.
▪️Traders often combine these patterns with other indicators (like volume, order blocks, or support and resistance) to confirm the presence of institutional involvement.
🔸The Smart Money approach relies heavily on understanding and interpreting these HH and LL structures to trade in sync with the institutions, avoiding common pitfalls that trap many retail traders.
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close Colours since 2011First, OCTOBER IS THE FIRST MONTH INTO DOUBLE FIGURES AS A GREEN CANDLE CLOSE SINCE 2011 - 10 Octobers in the last 14 years - Pretty good average ;-)
So ->
The Arrows -> We have only ever seen a RED August followed by a GREEN Sep and October on 3 previous occasions. 2015 & 2016 and then again in 2023 and just now , in 2024 makes the 4th.
To me, this backs up the idea that PA is following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal. This is superimposed on chart from Nov 2021 as yellow Bars
The Candle sizes are
2015
August -30% Sep +18% Oct +41%
2016
August -26% Sep +14% Oct +24%
And so now we move over to what is happening in this cycle
2023
August -16% Sep +14% Oct +37%
2024
August -23% Sep +30% Oct +30%
The numbers are not exactly the same and, infact, the 2024 figures blow the others out the water from September......but there is a trend there to be seen until Sep 2024 comes in.
Maybe wishful thinking and how the next 3 Monthly candles Close will confirm or deny this idea.
But it has to be said, the PA has followed the Fractal from Nov 2021 to now pretty accurately..as can be seen on many previous Posts
IF we are doing this 2013 - 2017 Fractal, we have a clear Run to a New ATH by end of 2025 or just after, with intermittent RED months while PA catches its breath, like in Jan 2017
It should be Noted that a GREEN October Close does NOT always lead to a Green November.. So we need to continue to watch carefully.
BTC Update (still bearish)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
According to previous scenarios, this diametric is forming for Bitcoin.
We expect a correction and drop to the green range (for wave F) and then Bitcoin rejects upwards from the green range (for wave G).
Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will violate this analysis
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTC at a Crossroads: Correction to 63K or Pump to 77K?GM crypto bro's, happy weekend! Today, the fear & greed index stands at 72 (greed), and the stoch RSI is nearing oversold territory.
Today's outlook remains similar to yesterday. If BTC's daily candle closes below 69K, a strong chance exists for a visit to the 64K-63K range. But if it holds, we might see another pump to 76K-77K.
Stay sharp and avoid FOMO. Always manage risk. I'm Akki, signing off with one chart. Have a great day & stay SAFU.
Pull back is a pattern that can be recognized after it is formed
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The HA-High indicator is showing signs of being created at the 69843.04 point.
Accordingly, the point of observation is whether it can receive support and rise near the 69843.04-70148.34 section.
We need to check whether the StochRSI indicator falls below 50 due to this decline.
When the price is supported in the 68393.48-70148.34 range, if the StochRSI indicator remains below 50 and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, it is a time to buy.
Basically, if the StochRSI indicator is above 50, it is better to focus on finding a time to sell, and if it is below 50, it is better to focus on finding a time to buy.
In particular, you should focus more when it is in the overbought and oversold ranges.
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The MS-Signal indicator consists of M-Signal and S-Signal.
Since S-Signal is currently in the 66668.65-68393.48 range, it is possible to touch this range and rise, so caution is required when trading.
Therefore, it is better to check the movement when the state of M-Signal < S-Signal is changed.
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(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)
If it falls below 68447.9, liquidation is required for positions purchased (LONG) below 67044.1.
In other words, if the first installment liquidation was performed above 69835.3, the second installment liquidation is required around 68447.9.
Then, when it shows support in the 68447.9-69835.3 range and the StochRSI indicator is below 50 and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, you can make an additional purchase (LONG).
It is recommended that this additional purchase (LONG) be made below 69835.3.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are the points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points.
We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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BTC 5D INDEX Perfect Chart w/ 2 Retests Mapped out weeks ago combining diagonals in White and Horizontals in Yellow & Blue. Fib Extension with measured move to GETTEX:87K is white also. Used Closers of the 5 day time frame.
First re-test was on the upper white diagonal. Then popped up with in $$'s of previous ATH and then came back to retest the yellow horizontal.
Next should , or possibly, never 100%, but break up thru ATH then re-test that move and level in Blue.
Then GETTEX:87K and that Fib retracement, whitte, used as an extension from ATH to most current low extrapolates the 1.618 very close to the measyred move, probably Kiss $90K but 87 is safer trade