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1-BTCUSD

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Afternoon Update : BREAKDOWNIf you've followed my research over the past 90+ days - you were ready for this move. If you were positioned for this breakdown, many of you should have seen decent profits or green in your accounts. I'm so happy and proud to have helped many of you prepare for this move. Stay cautious into the close as we may see more selling pressure drive prices lower. Remember, everything I do is about helping you become a better trader. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
BITCOIN seeking buyers on the 4hour MA100.Bitcoin / BTCUSD made a decisive break out yesterday over both the 4hour MA100 for the first time in 20 days as well as the Falling Resistance. After topping today, the price pulled back to retest the 4hour MA100, this time as a demand level so that the market gets the confirmation that there are short term buyers there. 1day RSI wise, we made a bullish breakout above the MA similar to January 14th, which was followed with an immense rally to the 109400 High. Buy and target the bottom of that Resistance Zone at 106500. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
BTCUSD: Is it possible to reach 160k by May?Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.148, MACD = -503.300, ADX = 40.137), consolidating under the 1D MA50. This neutral state indicates that it is still a buy opportunity, as long as it stays under the 1D MA50. The similar consolidations (Rectangle patterns) of January 2024 and March 2023 indicate that when the 1D MA50 is reclaimed, Bitcoin gives a bullish breakout signal that targets the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. As you notice, thos phase since November 2022 are cyclical and replicate the price action over and over again. Go long, TP = 160,000 potentiall by end of April beginning of May. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Sailing27db97e52ec7b1b43e5391bb5861b8d4cf37d3a7c3a1a06d3aa0533382d52733 Bitcoin's conservative addressable share of speculative assets is 2%. The total market cap of the speculative portion of assets are as follows: Real Estate: $2.14 trillion Gold: $7.83 trillion Silver: $108 billion (0.108 trillion) Stock Market: $21.8 - $32.7 trillion (We'll consider the lower and upper estimates) Bonds: $7.035 - $14.07 trillion Total speculative market cap: $38.913 trillion to $56.848 trillion. Conservative estimate for Bitcoin's share of this is 2%, or 0.778T-1.137T The conservative multiplier for Bitcoin, is 118x. This means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin, the market cap tends to increase by $118. Let's assume 10x instead. 0.778T-1.137T X 10 = 7.783T - 11.370T Conservative projected price range 350k-666k Market Cap details below: Real Estate: * Total Market Cap: $379.7 trillion * Speculative Portion Market Cap: $2.14 trillion (Investment real estate) * Speculative Portion: 0.56% Gold: * Total Market Cap: $19.57 trillion * Speculative Portion Market Cap: $7.83 trillion * Speculative Portion: 40% Silver: * Total Market Cap: $1.816 trillion * Speculative Portion Market Cap: $108 billion * Speculative Portion: 5.95% Stock Market: * Total Market Cap: $109 trillion * Speculative Portion Market Cap: $21.8 - $32.7 trillion * Speculative Portion: 20-30% Bonds: * Total Market Cap: $140.7 trillion * Speculative Portion Market Cap: $7.035 - $14.07 trillion * Speculative Portion: 5-10%
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by trade-God
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-21 : Top Pattern Counter TrendToday's Top pattern in Counter-Trend mode suggests the markets will attempt to move downward, seeking a new support level, then find a base and attempt to roll a bit higher. I don't expect a big breakdown to take place today, but the YM is already struggling to maintain support - so we may see the ES/NQ break downward if the major markets continue to weaken throughout the day. I do expect the markets to move into my Major Bottom pattern over the next 3-5+ trading days. So, overall, I expect the markets to reject these recent highs and attempt to move downward. Gold and Silver should continue to rally with Gold trying to break above $3k and silver trying to break above $35. Bitcoin is moving into an early stage Excess Phase Peak flagging formation. This should prompt a fairly solid rally phase for Bitcoin over the next few days/weeks. If my longer-term research is correct, the recent new highs will be rejected and price will roll into a double-bottom type of setup between now and the end of March 2025. I suspect traders are not prepared for this move and will continue to try to BUY any dip they see over the next 30+ days. My only advice is to play the short-term trends and avoid position or swing trading too heavily. The markets are going to become very volatile over the next 30+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by BradMatheny
4
BTCUSD: Short-Term Rebound Before Extending Bearish TrendIn line with previous analysis, BTC remains within a Symmetrical Channel Down pattern, signaling a potential continuation of its downward trend into early 2025. The price is currently approaching a minor support level at 94,992, which could trigger a short-term rebound. If buying pressure strengthens, BTC may see a technical rebound toward the minor resistance at 98,768, aligning with the upper boundary of the Symmetrical Channel Down. However, as long as the price remains below this level, the broader trend remains bearish, with a potential decline toward the key 2025 support level at 92,102. Traders should monitor price reactions at these critical levels for confirmation of the next move. Previous analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AzrulAzir
1
BTC/USD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Faces Resistance at $110,000!Looking at this chart of BTC/USD on the 4-hour timeframe: Current Price: The price of Bitcoin is currently around $98,468.88, with a slight increase of +0.24% for the session. Key Levels: The price is approaching a strong resistance zone near the $110,000 level, which is marked with a shaded area above the current price. This could act as a psychological barrier or a sell-off zone if the price reaches this level. On the downside, there is support near the $94,000 level, indicated by a box in the lower part of the chart. The market has shown a tendency to bounce from this zone in the past. 200 EMA: The 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently around $98,193, and the price is trading slightly above it, which indicates that the trend may be leaning bullish, but a pullback to this level could be expected. Price Action: The chart shows a series of upward movements after consolidation in the lower range, which suggests bullish momentum. However, the proximity to resistance means the price might face some challenges breaking through the $110,000 zone. Overall, there’s potential for Bitcoin to test higher levels, especially if it can clear the resistance near $110,000. But a pullback or consolidation around the $94,000 region could also be on the cards. Keep an eye on volume and price behavior around these levels to confirm the next move.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
Whether it can be supported and rise near 97226.92 is the key Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1M chart) Half of February has passed. Since the BW(100) indicator was created not long ago, it seems that it will take some more time to know whether it will act as support and resistance. The current BW(100) indicator point is 102429.56. Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing around 70K, it is not strange if it falls at any time. On the other hand, it is not strange if it rises at any time. - (1W chart) Since the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart was created at the 97226.92 point, it is important to see if there is support around this point. Since the M-Signal of the 1W chart > the M-Signal of the 1M chart, we need to see if the price can be maintained above the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart. - (1D chart) The key is whether it can be supported around 97226.92 and rise above the M-Signal indicator of the 1D chart. - Since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone, if it falls near 97226.92, it is possible that it will touch the 92792.05-94742.35 zone. At this time, the important thing is to maintain the price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. To do so, the price must be maintained above 91231.0, which is the low point on February 3. - This volatility period is until February 17. The next volatility period is around February 24 (February 23-25). Therefore, do not relax and check whether the price is maintained by rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, and whether the M-Signal indicator and Trend Cloud indicator on the 1D chart turn upward. If it turns upward around 97226.92, 1st: 101947.24 2nd: 103706.66-104.463.99 You should respond depending on whether there is support around the 1st and 2nd above. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. How to view and respond to this is up to you. When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance. This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies. 1st : 44234.54 2nd : 61383.23 3rd : 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting) 4th : 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting) 5th : 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin Halving Cycles: Market Trends & Timeframes📈 Bitcoin's Market Cycles & Halvings: A Historical Perspective This chart provides a deep dive into Bitcoin’s four halving cycles, analyzing how BTC has historically moved from market bottoms to cycle tops. With the next peak potentially approaching in 2025, understanding these trends can help traders and investors make informed decisions. 🔍 What This Chart Shows: Halving Events (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) Market Bottoms before each cycle Market Tops post-halving Cycle Lengths from bottom to top 🕰️ Bitcoin’s Historical Halving Trends 1️⃣ 1st Halving (2012-2013) Market Bottom: July 3, 2010 ($0.03) Market Top: November 29, 2013 ($1,134) Cycle Length: 1,244 days (3.4 years) Bitcoin’s first major cycle saw explosive growth following its first halving. The price surged over 37,000%, confirming the narrative that halving events reduce supply and drive bullish momentum. 2️⃣ 2nd Halving (2016-2017) Market Bottom: August 25, 2015 ($162) Market Top: December 17, 2017 ($19,665) Cycle Length: 845 days (2.3 years) After the second halving, BTC experienced another parabolic rally, increasing over 12,000% before topping out in late 2017. 3️⃣ 3rd Halving (2020-2021) Market Bottom: December 15, 2018 ($3,126) Market Top: November 10, 2021 ($69,000) Cycle Length: 1,061 days (2.9 years) Bitcoin’s third cycle saw a slightly longer rally but still resulted in massive gains, with a 2,100% increase from the bottom. 4️⃣ 4th Halving (2024-Present) Market Bottom: November 21, 2022 ($15,479) Market Top: ??? (Expected 2025) With the 2024 halving approaching, historical patterns suggest another major bull run could be on the horizon. If past trends hold, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high sometime in late 2025.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kingthies
1
XRP Why A Serious Revaluation Is Imminent And CloseQUESTION: If XRP is only being used as a settlement currency for banks then why would there be these wild price predictions when the market cap is already $150 billion? The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down: Market Cap Misconceptions XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone. Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings. Bank Adoption and Utility Argument If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation. However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth. Speculative vs. Real Utility Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases. In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes. Liquidity and Scarcity Factors Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases. However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure. Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions. True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market. Bottom Line XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements. QUESTION: So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future? XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors: 1. Utility vs. Speculation A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption. If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility. 2. Market Cycles & Sentiment Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value. If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage. 3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released. If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down. However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme. 4. Institutional Adoption If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation. But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand. 5. Competitive Landscape XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction. If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand. Realistic Price Outlook? If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels). However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated. Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels. QUESTION: Is the value of XRP currently way higher than it should be compared to its usage Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies. Why? Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long. Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure. If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low. Speculative Premium A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand. Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized. Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in. Supply & Sell Pressure Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market. This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure. Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP. Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers. Conclusion Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run. QUESTION: The current price is 2.75 is that overvalued? Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions. Why is XRP Overvalued? Speculation Dominates The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today. Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized. Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50. At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand. Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market. If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time. Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP. Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements. What Could Happen Next? If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen. XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price. Conclusion At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today. None of this is financial advice, just satire!
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Bitgolder
43
BTC Market Thesis – February 20, 2025Current Market Overview Current Price: $97,632 Open Position: $95,917.6 Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential. Stop Loss: $95,000 Take Profit: $99,600 Confidence Level: 80% Technical & Market Indicators RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation. CME Options Data: Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate. Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels. Binance Perpetuals: Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs. Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation. Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment. Possible Scenarios & Probability 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) 📈 BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600 Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels. RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum. Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend. Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions. 2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability) 🔄 BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000 Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds. MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum. Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals. 3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability) 📉 BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000 Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off. RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction. A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions. Final Takeaway Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000. Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns. Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered. Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
by titankarma