BTCUSDT: Consolidating below key resistance. What next?Hello, dear friends!
BTC/USDT is currently on a bearish trajectory, with the price hovering around $101,200. This decline follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opposing the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve fund.
From a theoretical perspective, the outlook suggests further downside potential, as the price is currently near critical resistance levels around the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracements, while the descending trendline remains intact. It is anticipated that the decline could extend to the designated support zones.
Wishing you all profitable trades ahead!
1-BTCUSD
DXY vs BTC - Don't Fade the FedVery simple concept that people should be aware of.
When DXY runs it is because investors are risking off from the market into USD for some reason.
Usually DXY will run in opposition to the majority of Stocks, Crypto and other risk on markets.
The Fed has announced yesterday that there will be less rate cuts than expected in 2025 and are hawkish causing a market wide selloff into USD and other safe haven assets.
This risking off may be done and we could see a reversal on the DXY, a failed breakout: or we could be in for more pain.
It's a big warning sign.
A bearish retest of bitcoin to rule them all#bitcoin #btc price has broken the trend line support of ascending channel and parabola support. This is not good but in my previous ideas i' ve warned you of this great risk. If this bearish retest succeeds with declination from the trend support, more dumps will be ahead. Not financial advice.
BTC Price Predictions for ATHBTC price is bouncing off of strong support at around the 96,600 range, and is likely to bounce back above 100k. It could take a while to consolidate and accumulate a while before heading up further. My prediction is price likely to approach all time highs around the first week of January.
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely!
Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant.
I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop.
Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
BTCUSD: The phenomenal Fib power of +.618.Bitcoin quickly turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.454, MACD = 3285.300, ADX = 32.138) as in a matter of 24 hours it dropped from its 108,000 ATH back to below 100,000. As the price continues to grow, we should start getting used to those 10k violent price swings. Today though, we want to discuss an incredible finding, which we call ' the Fib power of 0.618'. It is this amazing pattern you see where Bitcoin, since its Nov 2022 bottom and subsequent Jan 2023 High, it has systematically targeted every +0.618 Fibonacci extension before pulling back.
1st TP was Fib 1.618, 2nd TP = Fib 2.168, 3rd TP = Fib 3.618. Natually this sequence targets next: 4th TP = Fib 4.618 (112,500), 5th TP = Fib 5.618 (173,500) and finally 6th TP = Fib 6.618 (265,000). Of course this assumes that the trend will follow the same fluid pattern, where the first of the Fib pairs has only a short consolidation (green Rectangle) leading to a fast rise to the second Fib, which has a long consolidation (blue Rectangle). This implies that we're currently inside a short consolidation an in April we should hit 112,500 (5th TP on Fib 5.618).
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BTC/USD - daily chart divergence showed the wayThe divergence was strong with this one.
Both the RSI and MACD showed huge Divergence from the Price.
Divergence is a very good way to try and prevent your buy trade from being someone else’s exit liquidity at the top.
It'll be interesting to see if those Liquidity Voids below get filled up.
Divergence:
Liquidity Voids:
BTC SHORT TO $94,760Finally some clarity from BTC, well worth sitting on our hands for a short period. We created a short term down trend with multiple confirmations (SMA break and rejection, LL's & LH's etc) a retracement back to the golden ratio and a rejection from a major key level has resulted in some bearish momentum for BTC and all correlated markets.
We'll se how this plays out as exhaustion will play some restriction in the momentum BTC can hold although i do think the target / 61.8% retracement level will be met of $94,760
Also currently waiting on BTC to produce a new LL on the 1H time frame so lets see how that pans out. I have moved stop to $11,065 to lock in 1.5% as we've been out the market for a few days.
P.S, sorry slightly late on posting this idea
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart analysis. BTC/USDT trades within an ascending parallel channel, respecting the upper and lower trendlines.
Current price: $99,789.68, retracing back towards a crucial support area.
The highlighted green area is around $98,000-$100,000, which acts as the channel’s demand zone and mid-range level.
200 MA (green line): Located near $97,830, providing dynamic support.
Immediate resistance near the upper channel trendline (~$110,000).
Psychological resistance at $105,000, a crucial round-number level.
If BTC maintains the $98,000-$100,000 support area, it is set to bounce towards:
Short-term target: $105,000.
Mid-term target: $110,000, aligned with the upper channel boundary.
If BTC breaks below $98,000, further declines to test $95,000 (lower trend line) are possible.
A breakdown below the channel will invalidate the bullish trend.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
For updates on other coins or personalized insights, feel free to reach out via DM.
@Peter_CSAdmin
Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles
⚠️ Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles ⚠️
Bitcoin and many altcoins are significantly overbought in their respective cycles. 🚨
Caution is strongly advised.
Avoid jumping into investments late in the 1-week cycle. Instead, wait for the cycle to dip below 20 before considering an entry. 📉
🧠 Quick Recap: How to Use the Cycle Signals
- ✅ Green Zone = Potential Buy Signal
- 🚫 Red Zone = Potential Sell Signal
We’ve been in the red zone for a considerable amount of time now, signaling heightened risk. A retracement appears likely, so patience is key!
⏳ The Danger of FOMO
It’s tempting to trade when:
- The market moves 24/7 🌐
- Influencers flaunt their PnL cards 📊
- News and activity are constant. 📢
But jumping into an overheated market can lead to losses, not gains.
✅ What to Do Instead:
- Don’t chase the hype.
- Missed a 10-15% gain? No problem! Compare that to the profits from buying in the green zone and selling in the red—you’ll make far more with less risk.
🔑 Stay Smart, Stay Patient
Remember: **There’s nothing worse than watching your portfolio bleed daily.** Avoid the stress by simply waiting for better cycle opportunities. 💡
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research! 📖
Exhaustion on uptick in downtrend on BTC 45mBearish setup
Exhaustion of uptick in the downtrend, I call this setup the brutal setup.
Bearish because Stoch RSI gets overbought and turning down, while 2 ATR line of EFI is slightly above zero (should be slightly above or lower then that)
Entry 102065
SL: 102848
Target: 100630
Trade no: #00003
Is BTC in a accumulation phase?Bitcoin is in an 7K (about 35%) range since 150 days now, and just broke to the downside.
Could this be the spring of an Wyckoff accumulation schematic?
It is no secret that price action has been choppy ever since it entered the trade range, has to shake most people out.
Of course, for this to be an spring we'd need big buyers stepping in, and defying all of the sell volume we've seen so far.
On the other hand, bulls already had absord a lot of BTC sell order and could therefore mean price is near a reversal.
Price could of course(inevitably in the bull case) retest the price range and fade of to fresh lows.
It is also no secret that BTC is highly correlated to traditional markets. It would therefore make sense for both markets to bottom at somewhat the same time.
But with everything we've seen, it could be possible for BTC to mark a bottom now and see price suppression while the DJI, NASDAQ and SPX mark their bottoms in.
It is also an great idea to keep in mind that price tend to move again the masses, and with the FTX/ALAMEDA illiquidity situation, everyone is scared and calling for lower lows.
This is only an gut feeling based on market sentiment right now and only support the unprobability that market would reverse(while everyone is bearish).
Next days/weeks are gonna determine the direction ahead for BTC.
FLOKI ON TARGET, WHATS NEXT MOVE ?NOW :
FLOKI Finish drop to firat target area of Wave 3 🔥🔥🔥
What's the next move ?
📌Next move at fibonacci level 0.618 or 0.000164
📌FLOKI needs a pullback/retest first after its drop to Wave 3 for,and on going to visit next target of Wave 4, hitting the marked target area.
📌Then, it’s likely to continue its decline to complete Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Correction.
📌Be cautious about the FOMC data release on December 19. The Fed revised its rate cut projection in the Summary of Economic Projections from 3.4 to 3.9. This will significantly impact the market in 2025, as the Fed might only cut rates 2x or even just 1x next year (This could disappoint the market, which has been overly euphoric). Please follow the trend of Bitcoin and Economic Projection 2025.