Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.
1-BTCUSD
$BTC 4h Timeframe OutlookCRYPTOCAP:BTC | 4h
The main hurdle is still the monthlyOpen, as the price is rejecting here. However, we are still trading and holding the weeklyPoC
Keep an eye on the monthlyOpen. If we get rejected again, expect we rollover to 80k, or possibly down to 78k
If we flip the monthlyOpen and break the unresolved bearish imbalance at 86k, expect a move back up, retesting 90k–92k, or if we can tap the quarterlyOpen at 93k
Dead Cat Bounce BTCUSDT🚨 High-Risk Analysis 🚨
This setup isn’t for the faint-hearted. It’s like trying to catch falling knives while blindfolded. But for those who thrive on risk—here’s the analysis.
📉 We've reached the second bottom.
(No one truly knows how deep the rabbit hole can go…)
Despite the uncertainty, we take control of our trade, set a strict stop-loss, and see if our cat still has one more jump left.
🔥 Factors in Favor of a Bounce:
✅ Deviation from the sloping trendline
✅ Formation of a second bottom
✅ Reversion to the mean price
✅ Approach to a major level, allowing for a tight stop-loss and an optimal risk-reward setup
✅ Candle wicks signaling potential price movement
⚠️ Bearish Risks:
Strong trend pressure could push lower
Lack of volume may fail to drive momentum
Final Thoughts:
This remains a high-risk trade, but with a strong profit potential, as long as stop-loss discipline is maintained.
🎯 Good luck to those taking the risk. Victory will be ours! 🚀🔥
Bitcoin's left translated cycle - new lowsLet’s analyze both Cycle Market theories separately:
60-Day Cycle Status
Bitcoin printed a new cycle low on February 28. While many expected a rebound, it carved another low a week later, leading into a left-translated cycle (price trends downward for over half the cycle). We’re now on day 16, hovering just above the $78,000 low. Further downside is likely in coming weeks.
Multi-Timeframe Cycle Breakdown
2-Week Cycle: Will dip below 20 by Monday’s close, marking the start of accumulation (long-term oversold conditions).
1-Week Cycle: Broken below 20 and stuck there for two months – a reversal is imminent, signaling mid-term upside.
3-Day Cycle: Also below 20, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
1-Day Cycle: Topping above 80, hinting at a brief pullback soon.
Consensus : Both theories suggest a rally toward the 60-Day Cycle high (days 20-30), aligning with the 3-Day Cycle peak. However, we may see one final dip when the 3-Day Cycle resets to 20 before the bull run resumes.
BTC LONG TP:87,500 15-03-2025Bitcoin is showcasing a beautiful bullish structure, and we could finally be looking at levels of 87,000 or even 90,000. It remains to be seen whether it will break through these levels or if we will simply see a bounce that leads to a consolidation range.
This analysis is based on a 4-hour timeframe, so we should expect to see results within 2 to 3 days.
Make sure to follow me to achieve impressive results together!
BTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuardBTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuard
Hello, fellow financial misfits! Already regretting not closing your trade when you were in profit? Don’t worry, you’re in excellent company.
Before we dive in, let’s get one thing straight: if my analysis is saving you from ending up like FTX , then do yourself a favor— drop a boost, follow me, and leave a comment!
🚀 LET’S GO:
- Analysis to compare with the previous one that gave us a sweet 6K move, from 82K to 76K. Well done, colleagues! No Ferraris this time either, but at least you won’t have to sell your cat to cover your margin call. 🐱💸
CURRENT SITUATION: THE MARKET CIRCUS
Here we are, fresh update just for you, because I know that without my guidance, you’re staring at your charts like a confused goldfish. 🐟
Meanwhile, while Bitcoin figures out whether to go up, down, or just mess with us all, the real world keeps delivering its fair share of nonsense. Trump (a.k.a. the blond guy with a ramen wig) 🍜 is still keeping us entertained, while geopolitics is tangled up like a pair of earphones in your pocket.
And now, get this: Russia is using Bitcoin to trade oil with China and India.
🔹 Mother Russia’s Trick:
1. China and India pay for oil in yuan or rupees.
2. Everything gets converted into Bitcoin and other cryptos.
3. Russia cashes in and smirks while sipping vodka. 🍷😏
Meanwhile, we’re stuck dealing with KYC, banks blocking our withdrawals, and regulations changing every five minutes, while Putin is out here trading like a Wall Street shark. And us? Just trying not to get wrecked by the market.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BITCOIN’S MAZE
📈 General trend: Still bullish, but with the emotional stability of a trader on 50x leverage in a pump & dump. 🎢
📌 Current price: 83K
📌 Key level: 84K, possible bearish rejection.
📌 Warning! It might push up to 87-86K to grab liquidity before pulling a textbook dump.
📌 Fun fact: If it closes above 87K on a higher timeframe, we could see a bullish reversal signal. Otherwise, grab your helmet, because we’re going down. 🪂
PRICE TARGETS
📉 Bearish targets:
1. 80.140K
2. 76.600K
3. 74.000K
4. 70.000K
5. 66.000K (if we hit this, light a candle for crypto) 🔥
📈 Bullish targets:
1. 86.700K
2. 89.000K
3. 92.000K
4. 95.000K
5. 102.000K (if we get there, big party and we all buy a Lambo… toy version) 🚗
If you enjoyed this analysis, support PipGuard , because financial information served with sarcasm and expertise is the only kind worth reading. Follow, boost, and comment, or I’ll send you a chart with invisible candles on a white background. 🎭
Until next time, may volatility be with you!
PipGuard 🚀
Those who buy BITCOIN without looking at anything should be careIn my view, history will repeat itself. BTC will reach 65000. Some Future matters is reducing the possibility of BITCOIN's upward movement. November 2021 is still expected. Those who buy BITCOIN without looking at anything should be careful. If you look at the BEARISH DIVERGECNE, you can see that the INTEREST of buyers is decreasing.
Bitcoin: 80K For Higher Low Long This Week.Bitcoin has retraced off the of the 76K to 78K AREA and established a double bottom formation (see arrows). I specifically mentioned this in my previous article and talked about it further during my most recent stream. While a bear flag formation IS now present, which implies weakness on the horizon, I anticipate a higher low support around the 80K area this week (see illustration). If it breaks, then 76K should be watched for another double bottom or failed low formation which offers attractive price points for swing trade long opportunities.
This is a wild environment because we have tons of unexpected news constantly affecting the market while at the same time the highest seasonal volume (compared to August). This means moves will be BIG on both sides of the market, people will OVER react AND opinions will be more costly than usual. The first step to navigating such an environment effectively as a swing trader is to FOCUS on LEVELS and NOT news. No matter what the news is, either a level is going to be respected or its not. By focusing on what the herd is not, you can gain an advantage on the market, even if its brief.
Along with that, if you understand how to use dollar cost averaging effectively in this environment, you can start a position slightly earlier while waiting for confirmation before you add. An example of this is while watching for test of 80K, you buy a small position which you can take pain on, which means a much wider than usual stop. IF confirmation appears, you add. While it is possible that after the add the market goes against you, the PROBABILITY of the location and formation FAVORS a positive outcome more. In cases like this it is worth the risk. If 80K breaks without any confirmation, you are still small and you lose less than you normally would because of the adjusted size.
When market sentiment reaches extremes, THIS is when you want to pay CLOSE attention, especially during BEARISH extremes. In order for a market to reach attractive prices, mews typically needs to be negative. During such times, traders tend to avoid the market because the market looks "bad" yet, these same traders buy aggressively at the WORST prices, typically the highs when everything looks "great". One of my long time followers during my stream mentioned he was interested in buying, but only taking small bites because things looked so bearish. My response was that I usually suggest small bites at highs, and right now we are no where near the highs, so slightly greater risk can be justified at these prices for swing trades and investing.
Assuming risk requires confidence. What gives me such confidence is being able to gauge potential risk through analyzing price structure and levels. Wave counts are very helpful in this regard and help me shape reasonable expectations. In this context, Bitcoin at 76K MAY be the Wave 4 bottom. As long as 65K is not touched, a Wave 4 bottom can otherwise be established somewhere between 76K and 66K if 76K breaks. This will go against ALL of the bearish sentiment required to push prices to such levels. Navigating this effectively means you will have to put your contrarian hat on. Pay attention to the levels and confirmations, not what people are saying.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Solana ($SOLUSD) - Monthly Demand InboundQuick TA for Solana $SOL. Many cryptos are at inflection points and will likely break higher or roll over from current prices (I think a move down is more likely, per long-term charts, and am hoping this happens for the sake of buying opportunities). Solana, like many other cryptos, has failed to develop meaningful 1D bullish momentum (RSI holding below 50). Should COINBASE:SOLUSD get another leg down, I'll be watching its behavior as it enters lower demand zones. 101.75-78.87 = monthly demand; 74.85-51.37 = weekly demand, but there are also buy areas higher. If Solana trades lower and approaches the aforementioned levels, use LTFs for signs of exhaustion/downtrend reversal. Personally, I wouldn't use "set-and-forget" buy limit orders; higher-beta cryptos may keep selling off until majors bottom/reverse and/or prices might not trade low enough to hit your limit price. I prefer more of a "hands-on" approach to trading, but to each their own.
On the road, so truncated analysis. Will update when I can. Thank you for your interest and let me know what you think!
Jon
@JHartCharts
BTC/USD Analysis & Trade Idea - Zooming Out
Market Structure & Key Levels
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has recently faced a significant correction after reaching local highs, now testing a key demand zone. The structure indicates a potential reversal or further downside if support fails.
- Support Zones:
- $73,805 – Currently acting as support; a breakdown could trigger more downside.
- $68,997 – A strong demand area that previously led to a bullish breakout.
- $61,206 – A deeper retracement level and a key zone for long-term buyers.
- Resistance Levels:
- $84,304 – A critical resistance where price may face rejection.
- $93,401 – A major supply zone; breaking above would confirm bullish momentum.
Price Action & Potential Scenario
- BTC is testing $73,800 , a key inflection point. A strong bounce could push price toward $84,300 , while a breakdown may lead to $69,000 or lower.
- Price recently rejected from local highs, suggesting increased selling pressure .
- A confirmed reclaim of $84,300+ would be a bullish confirmation for another leg up.
Trade Outlook
📈 Bullish Scenario : If BTC holds above $73,800 and breaks $84,300 , a rally toward $93,400 could follow.
📉 Bearish Scenario : A breakdown below $73,800 could lead to a retest of $69,000 and possibly $61,200 in a deeper correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains at a key decision point. Holding support could fuel a reversal, while failure to maintain $73,800 may trigger further downside. Watch for price action confirmation before taking positions.
---
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and reflects my personal views. It is not financial advice. I am not responsible for any trading or investment decisions you make. Always do your own research and consult a professional before investing.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Bearish Flag Breakdown – Potential Drop AheadKey Observations:
Bearish Flag Formation:
The chart mentions a "Bearish Flag," which is a continuation pattern suggesting a potential downward movement.
The price initially moved up (flagpole) but started consolidating before breaking downward.
Break of Trendline Support:
A clear upward trendline is visible, which has been broken to the downside, indicating a shift in momentum.
The breakdown happened after a series of lower highs, confirming selling pressure.
Short Trade Setup:
A short trade (sell position) is illustrated with a red stop-loss area above the entry and a green take-profit area below.
The risk-to-reward ratio seems favorable, with a target around 82,390 USDT.
Price Action & Direction:
The red arrow emphasizes further downward movement toward the support levels.
The next major support zone is around 82,800 - 82,390 USDT.
Conclusion:
The chart suggests a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in the short term.
The break of the trendline and bearish flag formation indicate further downside potential.
If Bitcoin fails to hold the immediate support level, it could move toward 82,390 USDT or lower.
BNX/USDTHello friends
Given the price growth and the arrival of buyers, now that the price has corrected, you can enter the transaction with risk and capital management.
*Trade safely with us*
BTC Monthly AnalysisMy current perspective is simple.
The market flips supply into demand
OR
The market taps into demand.
——————————————————
While there can be trades taken between levels with proper risk management, these zones should provide the best setups.
It’s okay to swing and miss; again with proper risk management.
I am long term bullish & short term bearish.
BITCOIN TRENDS with Heiken Ashi candles & Trend indicator ADX Why HEIKEN ASHI Candles ?
Heikin Ashi is a charting technique that can be used to predict future price movements. It is similar to traditional candlestick charts. However, unlike a regular candlestick chart, the Heikin Ashi chart tries to filter out some of the market noise by smoothing out strong price swings to better identify trend movements in the market. ( Source TradingView )
What is ADX ?
The ADX indicator measures trend strength without indicating direction. It is derived from the Positive Directional Movement (+DI) and Negative Directional Movement (-DI):
+DI (Positive Directional Index): Measures upward price movement.
-DI (Negative Directional Index): Measures downward price movement.
ADX Value: Higher values indicate stronger trends, regardless of direction.
( Source TradingView)
To summarise, Heiken Ashi candles filter out Noise and help identify Trend Direction
ADX shows you Trend Strength - NEVER the direction of Trend, using prince index.
OK, so now we ready. The main chart has 2 Vertical Bold lines that will be explained in a Bit but Note where they are on the Chart
The one on the left is near where the Rise in PA turns and becomes a Ranging PA- PA slowed right on that line.
The 2nd line is near the TOP and before the point where PA entered a descending channel that leads us to where we are currently
Note on the chart, the Orange dotted line. This is the BASIS line of the Bollinger bands. This is The Basis line and shows us the Average of PA and, as you can see, we are currently below Average. This shows a Negative Trend.
See how PA is above the basis line in a Positive Trend
Also note in the chart how the lines of candles are Smoother. Each New candle begins on the centre line of the previous and so it becomes a Lot easier to see if PA rises or drops from previous with out the Jagged Noise of traditional candles. - Taller candles show more Strength than previous;
So now to the ADX Chart
See those 2 Dashed Vertical lines and note how the ADX ( YELLOW ) changes direction at those points.
To remind you, the Left one was where BTC PA Slowed down from a Steep Rise, A BULLISH TREND, and turned to Ranging.
The Drop in the ADX at this point showed us that the previous trend was weakening. I remind you, it DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION even though, in this case, they follow each other.
PA Ranged horizontal on average till we met the Next line, where the previous Trend Strength had reached Neutral ( Note, this is around 20 on the ADX scale )
At the next dashed lime. ADX began rising. Trend strength was increasing.
Initially, we saw BTC PA rising to a New ATH and so, it was easy to assume that the Trend Was Bullish again. However, as we see now, it turns out it was a BEARISH trend.
So how do we know when this is going to end ?
The ORANGE line DI+ ( positive price action ) and the RED DI - ( Negative price action ) can help
These are Price Direction index. When DI + rises, this indicates a positive price action and Visa Versa for DI -
On its own, this is not easy But, for instance, notice how while we been in the descending channel, the DI+ dropped while the DI- has ranged along the 20 line on average.
This indicates a controlled Drop in PA and NOT a Full on Bearish capitulation. There is strength there in PA and this can be seen by the Slow rise of the ADX
On a shorter time scales, over the last 5 days we have seen PA rise in price.
this is reflected more in the DI- dropping ( Negative price action loosing strength ) more than in the DI + remainf horizontal.( NOT gaining Strength )
This could indicate that we are not finished Dropping yet - and yet, at the same time, we see the ADX weakening.
The Bears maybe getting Tired.
If we now return to the Chart
This fatigue we maybe seeing in the Bears could be reflected in the simple fact that we are now Near a long term Rising line of Support ( bold line) and that we are nearer the lower line of the descending channel ( also support) - We are also very near the 2.272 fib extension that has proved to be support previously.
The upper bollinger band is around 90K, which happens to be near Top of current range.
So, we may see a push higher soon but we need to understand that the Longer term still Looks like we will continue in the Range Bound for a Few more weeks.
I hope this helps but be prepared for anything
BTCUSD The Week Ahead 17th March ‘25 Recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 88,000 level. The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 76,112, followed by 74,222 and 67,260.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 91,900, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, Bitcoin could target 95,126, with further resistance at 98,500.
Conclusion:
The price remains at a pivotal level, with 88,000 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD)BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bias: Bearish
BTC/USD has completed the ABCD pattern and is now printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming a shift in market structure to bearish.
Price is currently retesting a previous support, now turned resistance. If this level holds, it could open the door for continued downside; with the 68K–50K zone as a potential BTD (buy-the-dip) area.
TARGET 1 (78K):
A key structural zone. A clean break and close below this level would confirm bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of price falling.
TARGET 2 (66K):
Likely to act as a magnet; a previous resistance turned support that launched price toward 100K. A return here would retest the foundation of the previous rally to 100k.
TARGET 3 (50K):
From a fractal and psychological standpoint, double tops often retrace to the origin of the bullish move. In this case, around the 50K zone.
Invalidation:
A reclaim of 85K–90K would shift bias back to bullish, signalling potential for upside momentum.
BTC Today's analysis
BTC has been fluctuating at 84000 to 84500 yesterday, very stable, like a crocodile waiting for food to come, so we should always be vigilant
BTC 🎁 Buy@83000 - 83200
🎁 SL 83500
🎁 TP 84500 - 84800
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BTC TRIANGLE CHART PATTERN IN 15-MHello Guys Here Is Chart Of BTCUSDT in 15-M AT
Entry Level: SELL Around 84500
Resistance: The upper trendline of the Triangle 84800
Support: Around below our Target 82000
Target Will Be : 82600
If BTC breaks below this level, the Triangle pattern and,And then it went to more further downside could.