1-BTCUSD
$BTC Daily UpdateCRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC Almost a week now consolidating between $100,334-$95,878 range, $95,878 support holding good, Current 1D candle looking good with some potential to test $99,361 resistance if closes with bullish engulfing today which is being formed as of now, RSI also with potential to turn bullish on 1d, $94,148 next support area, $91,357 key support, $102,280 support regain will bring $104,987 test. Watch Given S/R
ATCryptoScan: BTCUSD About time to downThe recent price action stalled flattish with 4 days of doji... but overall, these doji have long upper tails. This means that with every attempt intraday to rise, eventually it is smacked down. Hence, selling pressure not tremendous, but enough to keep it in place.
MACD though a slightly lagging indicator, has already heads up that the daily chart of BTCUSD is in bear territory. Just need price to follow and complete the picture.
The window is opened for the revised target of mid-Feb 2025 accumulation at about 88,000.
Watch the weeks to come...
Potential bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 97,706.94
1st Support: 91,311.03
1st Resistance: 101,849.75
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BTCUSD - M15 Short-Term Downside - Timing Today's USD NewsAnalysis of overall situation:
We had a strong push up (to the left)
We're now in a retracement phase.
Usually there are 3 pushes down before the retracement is done. We're on that 3rd push phase.
I'm looking to Buy overall, so this is a short-term scalp in line with the retracement. (The Buy scenario is the orange SnDR zone lower)
H4 candles still showing weakness, indicating the retracement isn't done yet. Also, the spike from the previous M15 low happened at the new day, which hints it's not the real low.
Waiting for the market to first take liquidity off the high of today, ideally enter into the gap (blue zone) then create strong Bearish candles.
Entry will be on any M5/M15 retracement - after a break of structure. Also eventually breaking the current upward trendline.
Targeting the M15 low
Timing for this entry is after the USD News at NY Session.
If market hits the invalidation level marked, then this idea is discarded.
Bitcoin: Watch Low 90K Test For Long Setup.Bitcoin is near the lower part of its broader bullish consolidation. This means swing trade shorts are higher risk, while longs lower risk. How you navigate this area depends on the time frame you use to evaluate your trade signal and risk. The key location to watch for the coming week is the 93,500 to 92,500 support AREA which is part of a larger support zone. A bullish retrace from this area offers potential of at least 2 to 3K points which is a conservative estimation. IF this support area gives way (decisive break of 90K), then all bets are off until new levels establish themselves.
Recent movements have been wild thanks to all of the drama in the news. People who consume and react to news events will often find themselves stuck in painful positions. Chasing news, reacting to dramatic price movements and/or random signals/patterns on charts in leads to random results. You want to capitalize on participants who make these mistakes by anticipating their behavior and this is best done by evaluating ONLY TWO market components: support/resistance and trend. As simplistic and obvious as this may sound, this is the information that helps you build a more accurate lens to judge a market.
Both of these components depend on the time fame you choose to operate. For this analysis, that is the swing trade time frame. Recent trend can be categorized as range bound. That has been clear for weeks now. In range bound environments, support and resistance levels have a greater tendency to HOLD until one side eventually breaks If we zoom out on Bitcoin (monthly) we can see this consolidation is likely a broader Wave 4, or a broader higher low. IF
I have to bet on a side, it would be bullish. For me this means expect more for longs, ESPECIALLY from major support areas and LESS from shorts, ESPECIALLY from resistance areas on this time frame.
For example: with this context in mind and planning to take a swing trade, having a price point in mind (93K AREA see arrow), you now WAIT for confirmation in the anticipated area. IF it appears, risk can be defined around 89,500. That's 3.5K points which may sound like a lot, but the profit potential if it bounces is AT LEAST 4 to 5K points based on the current levels. How you manage this all depends on your risk tolerance and account size but in my opinion it is a risk worth taking.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC SHORT TP:95,000 07-02-2025"Btc is currently looking for a short position on a two-hour timeframe, targeting a take profit in the range of 95,000 to 95,500. This anticipated movement is expected to occur within a timeframe of 5 to 15 hours; if it does not happen within this period, the analysis will be considered invalid. Please stay updated for further follow-up on this position."
BTC/USDT 1H: Bearish Structure – Targeting Lower Levels?BTC/USDT 1H: Analysis
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Currect Market structure:
Price: $96,034, breaking below recent range support, signaling a short-term bearish trend.
RSI: Showing potential hidden bearish divergence at 40.85.
Smart Money Concepts: Indicating a distribution phase with lower highs.
Trade Setup:
Position: Short
Entry Zone: $96,800 - $97,000 (premium zone).
Targets:
T1: $95,500
T2: $94,200
Stop Loss: Above $97,600 (recent high).
Risk Score: 7/10
Reasoning: The risk-to-reward is favorable, but the price could still show some choppy action before confirming further downside.
Market Maker Analysis:
Accumulation: Seen around the $94,000 - $93,000 zone.
Current Phase: Distribution phase suggests more downside is likely after the current consolidation.
Price Action: Expect choppy movement between $95,500 and $97,000.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $97,000, $98,500
Support: $95,500, $94,000
Fair Value Gap: $95,800 - $96,200
Recommendation:
Position: Short positions are favorable after a rejection at resistance levels.
Confirmation: Wait for rejection at the $97,000 level before entering the short.
Action: Structure suggests downside after the current consolidation phase, so prepare for more bearish momentum.
Confidence Level: 7.5/10 – D
istribution phase visible, but waiting for confirmation at resistance.
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Why Bull Market Is Not Over For Bitcoin BTC?Hello, Skyrexians!
Recently we have see the drop on BINANCE:BTCUSDT to $91k. We can't understand why it caused so much fear and negative in crypto communities. This is still next to ATH but fear and greed index dropped into the fear territory. This is great sign for bull run continuation and now we will explain you this statement with the technical analysis.
Let's take a look at the weekly time frame. Before December we had a great probability
that anticipated growth from $50k to $100k could be the final wave 5 of the bear market, but price action has broken the potential Awesome Oscillator's bearish divergence. It gives us the confidence that this move was just the wave 1 in wave 3. It means that the most impulsive growth ahead. The minimal target is 1.61 Fibonacci at $140k, maximal at $200k. We believe more in $200k, but watch out our updates because targets can be recalculated.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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XAUUSD analysis for the weekLet’s craft a forward-looking analysis for XAU/USD (gold) based on plausible macroeconomic narratives, historical patterns, and potential catalysts. Keep in mind this is a speculative exercise—actual outcomes depend on unpredictable events.
Key Factors Shaping XAU/USD
1. Federal Reserve Policy
Bullish for Gold: Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Risk: If the Fed pauses or signals a "higher for longer" stance due to sticky inflation, gold could face headwinds.
2. U.S. Dollar Dynamics
A weaker USD (due to rate cuts or fiscal concerns, e.g., U.S. debt sustainability debates) would amplify gold’s appeal.
A stronger USD (safe-haven demand during a global recession or Fed policy reversal) could pressure gold.
3. Global Recession Risks
If major economies (EU, China) slide into recession, gold may rally as a safe haven, even if the USD strengthens temporarily.
4. Geopolitical Landscape
U.S. Election Aftermath: Policy uncertainty post-2024 election (taxes, tariffs, fiscal spending) could drive volatility.
New Conflicts: Escalation in Taiwan, Middle East, or Russia-NATO tensions would boost gold demand.
5. Central Bank Demand
Continued diversification away from USD reserves (e.g., BRICS+ nations) may sustain structural gold buying.
6. Inflation Trends
A resurgence of inflation (e.g., energy shocks, supply chain disruptions) would reignite gold’s role as an inflation hedge.
Scenario 1: Bullish Rally (2900–3000)
Catalysts:
Fed cuts rates aggressively (150+ bps total) amid a U.S. growth slowdown.
China’s property crisis spirals, triggering global risk-off sentiment.
Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows, spiking inflation.
Technical Outlook: A breakout above $3,000 (psychological barrier) could trigger algorithmic buying and FOMO momentum.
Scenario 2: Bearish Correction (2800-2600)
Catalysts:
Fed halts cuts due to stubborn inflation (CPI rebounds to 3.5%+).
USD surges as EU/Japan face deeper recessions.
Central banks slow gold purchases, ETFs see outflows.
Technical Outlook: A drop below $2,800 (hypothetical 2024 support) could trigger stop-loss cascades.
Scenario 3: Sideways Churn (2750-2900)
Catalysts:
Markets digest conflicting data (mixed growth, moderate inflation).
Geopolitical “cold wars” (U.S.-China tech/trade) persist without escalation.
Technical Outlook: Range-bound action as bulls and bears await clarity.
Strategic Takeaways
Prepare for Volatility: Gold will react sharply to Fed policy shifts and geopolitical “surprises.”
Watch the USD: A sustained DXY breakdown below 106 could turbocharge gold’s rally.
Risk Management: Use options or trailing stops—gold’s moves could be exaggerated in thin liquidity.
Final Note
By February 2025, gold’s path will depend on how 2024’s unresolved macro risks (debt, inflation, elections) unfold. While the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact (debasement hedging, de-dollarization), short-term swings will hinge on Fed credibility.
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Scalping Trade Setup (Short) - Bearish Bias✅ Entry: $96,000 - $96,200 (If price retests this area)
🎯 Take Profit (TP): $95,400 - $95,500
❌ Stop Loss (SL): $96,500
📊
Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 ✅
🔹 Reasoning:
Price is breaking down from support around $96,000.
Ichimoku Cloud is bearish.
A retest of $96,000 before further downside is likely.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin to the moon?Bitcoin-Gold Ratio.
If you are going to trade with the big boys, there seems to be a good chance!
An inverse head and shoulders pattern!
What is this chart telling us? this chart is signaling a prolonged bull run (a protracted wave).
(what it might lead to) as a result: Gold could drop 80% against Bitcoin!
Remember, the market (pattern!) does not care what you think.
BTC = $ 96450
Gold = $ 2860
Feb 9, 2025
Appendix
The fat years
$BTC.D is at key Fib Retracement level. More upside-expectedThe most important story of this Crypto cycle has been the relentless strength of CRYPTOCAP:BTC against other crypto. The index CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D which measures the dominance of BTC in the total Crypto market in terms of Market Cap hit its low in Dec 2021 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D hit a multi-year low of 39%. That means only 39% of the Total Market Crypto can be attributed to $BTC. But since then, the Fed quantitative tightening began and most of the cryptos faced a meltdown. Even though CRYPTOCAP:BTC faced a bear market in CRYPTOCAP:USDT terms but still it fell less than the average Crypto. Since then, the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart has made a bullish double bottom and then made new higher lows and higher highs. If we plot the Fib retracement levels on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D weekly chart we saw recently that the Dominance chart stalled around 0.5 and 0.618 Fib levels. Since then, the Dominance chart has been making new highs and broken past the 0.618 . The next key level is 0.786 which will take the dominance to 66.12% percent. Watch out for my blog when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D reaches the key level for more insights.
The 100K Club: Market Moves Exchange Cold Wallet moveme
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, understanding market movements can be a daunting task. However, a growing number of traders are turning to unconventional indicators to gain an edge. One such approach involves analyzing the movements of the so-called "100K Club" — large exchange cold wallet addresses that hold substantial amounts of Bitcoin. These wallets not only represent significant market players but also act as a barometer for broader market sentiment.
Unveiling the 100K Club Indicator
Our newly developed indicator focuses on tracking major exchange cold wallet movements. By plotting simple labels whenever large movements of Bitcoin are detected from cold wallet exchange storage, it reveals critical market dynamics that are often invisible to the average trader. The indicator highlights accumulation and distribution phases, market tops and bottoms, and key levels for swing trading on weekly and monthly timeframes.
Market Tops and Bottoms: A Clear Pattern
Historical data suggests that the movements of the 100K Club wallets align closely with market tops and bottoms. When these wallets begin to offload significant amounts of Bitcoin, it often precedes a market top. Conversely, heavy accumulation by these wallets frequently signals a market bottom. This correlation provides traders with a reliable tool to anticipate major price swings.
Accumulation and Distribution Levels
The indicator also sheds light on major accumulation and distribution levels. Accumulation phases are characterized by steady inflows into exchange cold wallets, indicating that large players are positioning themselves for a price increase. Distribution phases, marked by substantial outflows, suggest that these players are cashing out, anticipating a market downturn.
Swing Trading with Confidence
For swing traders, understanding these wallet movements can be transformative. The indicator’s ability to define key levels on weekly and monthly charts allows traders to identify optimal entry and exit points. By aligning their strategies with the actions of major market players, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their risk management.
Liquidation Candle Sweeps: A Hidden Signal
An interesting phenomenon observed with these large wallet movements is the occurrence of liquidation candle sweeps above or below the major movement key levels. These sweeps often suggest a retail stop hunt before a reversal in market direction. Recognizing these patterns can provide traders with additional confirmation of potential reversals, making the indicator even more powerful for strategic trading.