1-BTCUSD
$BTC - Short Trade IdeaBitcoin has broken past the psychological barrier at $100k, absorbing the internal liquidity.
There's a chance it will shoot up to between $103.7k and $104k as the daily closes.
We've marked out our 4-hour range; the price is now trading above the midpoint. If we manage to hold this level, we could potentially retest the range high around $106k.
If we get a strong rejection at that point, we might consider scaling into short positions.
BNB → Big Accumulation. In Step With The DistributionBINANCE:BNBUSDT is trying to move into the realization phase after quite a long accumulation, thanks to which the coin can give a very good growth.
The coin tested the strong support of 645 within the correction. False break of the support and quite aggressive buyout of the fall indicates buying potential. Bitcoin, which is testing the highs and ready to go even higher is a good driver for BNB
Accordingly, the focus is on near-term levels. If the price can break the near-term resistance and consolidate above, the market will further go to break ATH and try to renew it.
Resistance levels: 761, 793
Support levels: 691, 645
I don't exclude that the unexpected correction of bitcoin can provoke a correction in the cryptocurrency market, but in general the structure is bullish. High probability of resistance breakdown with the purpose of continuation of movement
BTC → Consolidation Before The Breakout When Do We Go Up?BINANCE:BNBUSDT continues to consolidate, but within a strong bullish structure. The price is approaching the trigger, the breakout of which may provoke the formation of an upward impulse
A good signal that hints that the growth is likely to continue is the fact that after a strong growth and testing 100K the price does not fall, but consolidates with gradually rising local lows, it is also worth paying attention to MA-50, which acts as a strong support. Within this consolidation we have clear zones, within which the price is trading and accumulating potential, and there is also a clear trigger, the breakout of which can provoke the continuation of growth (distribution).
But next week is the Fed meeting on December 17-18, and there may be short-term market manipulative reactions. Be careful
Resistance levels: 101.8K, 104.1K
Support levels: 98.9K, 94.15K
Technically, the focus is on 101.8 - 98.9. Consolidation is forming inside this channel. I do not exclude a chance of support retest in the format of a false breakdown before further growth. Another deep correction to the lower liquidity zone - 94.1K is also possible. But until the price breaks 101.8, bitcoin will not go up, and based on the chart, the event is close and the chance is high
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – 4H/1D Kijun Breakout
Price Action: We’ve seen a triple tap on the Daily Kijun that marked strong resistance. The breakout and daily close above on January 6th, 2025 confirms a bullish signal. Now, price is hovering around the 4H/D Kijun confluence, creating a favorable area to watch for a retest and potential bounce.
Trade Idea (Long):
– Enter on retest of the 4H/D Kijun if we see supportive wicks or bullish confirmation.
– Risk: 1% of account.
– Reward: 1:2 RRR target (take profit near key swing high or FVG fill).
Macro News Watch: This is a big macro news week. Stay alert for unexpected volatility that could invalidate the setup. If price closes back below the Kijun levels, be prepared to manage or exit the trade accordingly.
january 6 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There will be a Nasdaq indicator announcement at 11:45.
Nasdaq is in an upward trend
Tether Dominance touched the daily chart Bollinger Band support line (major rebound section) and created today's strategy.
*One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. $98,749.5 long position entry section / Stop loss when the purple support line is broken or section 2 is touched
2. $101,042.5 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd -> Great 3rd target
Section 1 at the top
is the best short position entry section for today.
It would be good to check the real-time movement in the current section 1 touch situation.
In Nasdaq, the 12-hour + daily chart MACD golden cross
is the order to proceed, so if there is no plunge today,
it will be advantageous, right?
In the case of Bitcoin, the 2nd section at the bottom is the 1+4 section,
but since it is the 2nd touch, it is advantageous for long positions if it is supported within the purple support line.
There is a possibility of additional adjustments from the green support line deviation,
and I marked the bottom at the bottom, 97,438 dollars,
and if it is maintained without deviation from the sky blue support line,
the short-term upward trend can continue.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply refer to and use my analysis,
and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
XRP SeekingPips reminds himself STICK TO THE PLAN, XRP LONG ONLY
I would consider the following as a GOLD STAR LESSON TO BE SAVED.
Yesterday created a great reminder opportunity that you must have a PLAN & RULES.
Even SeekingPips is human and therefore sometimes will deviate from the plan.
The GOLD SECRET is to realise the error and get back on track as soon as possible.
I was very clear on the chart share on 01/01/2025 that I only wanted to accumulate XRP
Here is the copy of that paragraph :
"ℹ️ However whilst price remains above 2.10 USD I do not want to take the short side of XRP."
By the next chart share the next day 02/01/25 it was clear to me where price was and that I was seeing a clear BULL FLAG on the DAILY CHART.
✅️ With that information I had a plan❕️✅️
ℹ️So what's the lesson you ask?❔️
⭐️Well Seeking Pips didn't stick to the plan.
Price was still well above 2.10 but shared a short chart idea.
This is why a TRADE JOURNAL is a GREAT idea.
In real time you may not see or notice any TRADING ERRORS but by having a journal it's in black and white and you can spot any problems early.✅️
⚠️So what were the KEY POINTS from yesterday?
🟢 Based on the D1 timeframe chart there was no valid reason according to my PLAN to conditioner any short positions.
🟢 Even based on the intra day timeframes that I use my RED LINE on my chart share at 2.3268 was never traded below.
🟢 Too zoomed in to price on lower timeframes. Seeking Pips considered the intra day timeframes and price action over what the Daily and Weekly charts were indicating.
🟢 Quantity over quality, wanting to be active and share some content, even given the fact that the DAY, WEEK and EVEN YEAR had just started.
🟢 NOT GIVING the IDEA time to play out. Barely two hours earlier I had already decided that my bias was to the long side.
There was no trigger to invalid that bias.
⭐️THE LESSON⭐️
Trading is not all about Lambos and penthouses. Yes that can be a final goal if you want it to be BUT to get to that point you really do have to iron out all of the ugly stuff first...
If this post helps even one peron on their trading journey it has done it's job.👌
PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS POST IF YOU FOUND IT USEFUL. 👍
Analyzing AUDJPY Breakout: A Bullish Opportunity The forex pair AUDJPY is currently trading at 99.000, with a target price set at 100.000. This suggests an anticipated price movement of 100 pips, signaling a potential gain if the trade goes as planned. The price action indicates an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern often associated with upward price momentum. A breakout above the triangle's resistance level has already occurred, confirming the bullish bias. This breakout implies that buyers are in control, increasing the likelihood of reaching the target. The ascending triangle reflects higher lows, showing consistent buying pressure. Traders often view this as a strong technical indicator for upward movement. Risk management is crucial, as market conditions can shift unexpectedly. Monitoring the pair's price action and related economic events is essential. The breakout provides a clear trading opportunity aligned with technical analysis.
gold (xauusd) according to lower time frame,
Based on the chart provided:
1. **Descending Channel**:
- Gold appears to be trading within a descending channel, indicating a bearish trend in play.
2. **Resistance Zone**:
- A resistance area is marked near the upper trendline of the channel, suggesting that sellers might enter around this level.
- Price is currently near this resistance zone.
3. **Bearish Confirmation**:
- The text notes to wait for bearish confirmation before executing a sell trade. This could involve a rejection from the resistance zone (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern like a pin bar, engulfing candle, or increased selling volume).
4. **Trade Plan**:
- If bearish confirmation occurs at the resistance zone, price is expected to drop back toward the lower boundary of the descending channel.
- Potential targets:
- Mid-level support (likely around 2630).
- Lower channel line (near 2610 or lower).
5. **No Confirmation, No Trade**:
- If price fails to confirm bearish rejection and instead breaks out above the resistance zone, no trade should be executed as the bearish structure would be invalidated.
Crypto Alpha Report - January 06Happy Monday, friends! In today’s issue, I want to cover the grind and the mindset necessary to succeed in 2025.
Love it or hate it, you are not a computer. You are a biological meat bag filled with swirling hormones, fluids, and organic components. While many of us favor philosophy, the pursuit of truth/wisdom, and self-improvement, we’re still hindered by our biology regarding stress, anxiety, motivation, and discipline.
You see, the answers don’t all live up in your mind. The answers often live inside your body. There will be days you don’t want to trade, days you don’t want to backtest, and days you don’t want to scan the markets. While being kind to ourselves is essential, it’s equally important not to let poor planning and overreliance on our “feelings” dictate our actions.
Just as it is essential to set clear profit targets and goals for our trades and investments BEFORE entering a position, it’s equally important to set a pre-planned schedule and routine for our trading and investment activities.
Too often, I would wake up early and be excited to get to the markets. I would log onto my computer and immediately consume all of my alpha newsletters, telegram & discord chats, and then start scrolling X searching for Alpha. Before I knew it, it would be the afternoon, and while I “felt” like I had done something productive for my trading account, I hadn’t done a thing but scroll social media.
Knowledge without action is pointless. It doesn’t do you a bit of good to listen to a long podcast about motivation if you don’t use that knowledge to make any fundamental changes in your life. Similar in crypto, while it’s helpful to have a baseline knowledge of the ecosystem, at the end of the day, we’re not working in the marketing department for any project or giving long lectures or TED talks about cryptocurrency evangelism. We’re here to make money.
Researching all these new projects and trading strategies isn’t helpful if it doesn’t inspire direct action. You will be much more sane AND profitable if you restrict your knowledge-gathering activities to more actionable intel.
There’s only so much time in the day, and you can’t be good at everything. It is better to niche down, focus on what you’re going to trade, and focus on the chains you’re holding positions on than to get spread too thin knowing a little bit about a lot.
Here’s to niching down for riches in 2025 friends.
Crypto Market Update
Macro
Stablecoin Dominance
A nice clean breakdown from our consolidation area and a Lower Low. Happy days for altcoin holders. Our portfolios are up nicely because of it. This metric is getting close to being oversold, so I expect a corrective move up to re-test the breakdown point of 5.75% within the next 3-5 days. Use this metric to take short-term profits on higher-risk, lower-conviction positions.
Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance
This metric got oversold over the weekend, and today, it is putting in a nice bounce. As we already saw that Stablecoin Dominance is down, we know this is purely capital rotation back into Bitcoin, as people are beginning to finally buy back into Bitcoin with some size and conviction and dump stables.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
This metric is taking a hit today as altcoins pull back as capital rotates back into Bitcoin. This pullback will likely last a few more days, so there is an opportunity to cycle altcoin gains back into Bitcoin until this metric stabilizes. However, you can also hold your altcoin positions as this metric is still in an uptrend, and the long-term potential for overperformance is very high.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin had a beautiful day today, successfully reclaiming $100,000. We have regained bullish momentum on all timeframes and should continue to see overall price appreciation dominating throughout the week. Expect prices to pull back this weekend into early next week in anticipation of the Interest Rate print coming out on the 15th, but should that print be positive, we should rally into Trump’s inauguration.
Trends
5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Bullish
D: Bullish
W: Bullish
Bitcoin has successfully regained its bullish trend in all timeframes. The 1H Guppies have been dominating as the pullback entry zone for this current rally. That range is currently $99,200 - $100,000. Limit bids for re-entry can be stacked there and at the 4H pullback zone of $97,200 - $98,000.
Key Levels
POC: $93,634
VWAP: $100,481
Value Area High: $102,185 - $103,823
Value Area Low: $97,139 - $98,777
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $103,550 - $104,267
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $96,522 - $98,580
Generally, following big breakouts like this, Bitcoin does not pullback very much and just continues aggressively. Nevertheless, this is a higher-risk type of entry. I recommend setting limit bids at $99,700 as I see a liquidity gap (likely a dip target). If Bitcoin keeps pushing, we should move rapidly for the next liquidity zone above.
Strategy:
While enthusiastic, discipline as a trader and following our pre-plan is essential for long-term success. We still face a potential bull trap between $100,000 - $108,000, and Bitcoin has key catalysts coming up in the form of the Interest Rate Print (15th), Trump’s Inauguration (20th), and FOMC Decision (29th).
As I originally outlined, I don’t expect the Fed to pivot on interest rate decisions until March or May, which means Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain a continued rally above the current ATH until that event occurs.
While I would love to be wrong, I expect a reversal in Bitcoin’s price somewhere around $105,000 - $108,000 unless something crazy happens following Trump’s inauguration (sighing of SBR on day one?).
Therefore, I recommend taking partial profits on Bitcoin longs opened up at or below $95,000. Move your Stop Loss to $95,000 or slightly above, and continue to hold positions.
Look for re-entries on pullbacks to the key levels identified above.
Bearish BTCOn the daily and weekly stochastic RSI is in the overbought zone.
Using fibonacci, on the daily, price has not finished out the fib sequence to the d extension and had less than a 38.2 pullback.
We hit a d extension on the monthly.
Still bearish on this pair at least to 77K = 38.2 up fib retracement zone with inclination toward further downside potential to 68K = 61.8 up fib retracement zone.
$92K is key support for BTCGETTEX:92K is key support for BTC
If BTC breaks off the GETTEX:92K with significant dollars, we may see this asset go downhill for a while. It rallied down towards that zone today but quickly spiked up again.
While traders are optimistic about this asset following President-Elect Donald J Trump, we should all be careful with this baby.
Let's keep trading with risk management
Next Bitcoin targetBitcoin is moving in a downtrend direction that will lead the price to drop probably more. I can't exclude a bit of rollercoaster in the next days, but i think the range will not be so wide. I am waiting the price to reach the area i drawed in the chart before entering in a long position. From there, probably around end of the month, we could target a new top around February/March
BTC head and shoulders? (-.-)To me, this head and shoulders has many issues such as not being symmetrical, no actual head and a weak looking left shoulder.
We haven't even touched the neckline yet and people are freaking out about it.
If anything a better light to reframe this in is a potential triple topping pattern. That makes more sense than any kind of buzz word pattern we're forcing a bias onto the chart when it's not even fulfilled. If the neckline doesn't break, it's not a fulfilled pattern.
Crypto Alpha Report - January 08, 2025Happy Wednesday, friends! Today, I want to discuss the discipline necessary to consistently succeed in this market.
It’s Wednesday morning, and I’ve been up since 5 am. I’ve worked out, showered, breakfasted, cared for my kid, and am already about an hour into my work day. I have a clear idea of what capital rotations I will make and what trades I’m considering putting on, and I’ve consumed my morning data.
I don’t tell you this to toot my own horn. I’m showing you an example of what efficiency looks like, of what discipline looks like. Many mornings, I just want to stay in bed, not hit the weights, not hit the charts, and not read another newsletter. I don’t get out of bed because I want to but because I’ve made it a moral imperative.
That was the trick to re-wiring my brain. Focus less on being “disciplined” and instead, make self-improvement and being consistent a moral issue for myself. That seemed to do the trick for me, as I have had a long history of battling depression and apathy.
There’s no such thing as overnight success (at least long-lasting). Consistent results come from consistent inputs. You have to put in the work to be successful. I don’t find a trade every day, hell, most days. But the fact that I put in the time in front of my computer every day means that when an opportunity does come in front of me, I’m prepared to act on it with conviction.
We’ll talk about conviction in tomorrow’s newsletter, but for today, let’s stick to discipline.
To be a successful trader, you must put in the time every day. In the beginning stages, it will be about learning and backtesting. You need to carve out at least 1-2 hours per day to do it. You will have to sacrifice other things you want to do. But if you want this, you must make time to become good at it. That will only come with consistently putting in the time.
If you want to start playing guitar, you won’t be so great in the beginning. But one hour of practice a day and after a few months, you won’t be so terrible. After two years, you’ll be jamming and the center of joy for the campsite (assuming your singing voice isn’t awful).
It’s the same with trading and investing. Whether you want to full portfolio high conviction plays 1-2 times per year or risk 2% taking 2-3 trades per week, whatever your strategy or edge is, the market will not reward you if you don’t put the time in.
Make this the year of buckling down, concentrating your efforts, and making this a serious occupation, not just a moonshot hobby.
Onwards and upwards, friends!
Crypto Market Update
Stablecoin Dominance
A continued movement up from this metric, +1.45% today. Daily momentum is still turned to the upside; however, we remain on a bearish trend with negative momentum—resistance at 5.96% of MC. This is a potential early warning sign of lengthier consolidation, but we’re currently just oscillating around the current Point of Control and the previous local high.
Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
After three days of advance, this metric puts in a Doji indecision candle. Since we saw stablecoin dominance increasing, capital is rotating into altcoins. This is a good early sign of altcoin recovery moving forward.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
This metric is down -0.83% today, conflicting slightly with our previous metric. Potentially putting in a Hammer Reversal Candle, indicating buyers are beginning to step back into altcoins on this dip.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continued to sell off throughout the night and early morning. However, buyers have stepped in and front-run support at $93,000. I do not expect Bitcoin to break down from our current trading range of $92,000 - $103,000 until January’s catalysts are out of the way.
Trends
5M: Bearish
30M: Bearish
1H: Bearish
4H: Bullish
D: Bullish
W: Bullish
While Bitcoin remains in a bearish short-term trend, Bullish Divergence is printing on the 30M and 1H timeframe, with 4H Volatility, maxed out and nearly oversold. Bitcoin is also now trading above daily VWAP, with a prolonged period of consolidation from $94-$95,000. Expecting either a recovery move upwards, however, it is still likely to re-test the range lows again.
Key Levels
POC: $93,637
VWAP: $95,768
Value Area High: $96,540 - $97,282
Value Area Low: $94,253 - $94,995
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $96,313 - $97,198
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $93,258 - $94,126
Bitcoin is showing substantial bullish divergence in both the 30M and 1H timeframes and some buying strength. There is potential for some recovery today. However, I still expect us to test range lows before making another push for $100,000 or even a bigger breakout, depending on January’s catalysts.
Strategy:
6/10 Conviction that we push up today. I wouldn’t structure a trade here with tight invalidation. Indeed, I think it’s likely we will test $91,000 - $92,000 before pushing back up significantly like we saw moving into Monday morning. Bitcoin is in a consolidation pattern, trading in a wedge formation, and it will likely be later in January that we get a resolution. I expect buyers to keep price above $90,000 until Trump’s inauguration; there’s just too much potential juice left in the market. I would focus on building a swing position to the upside over the next couple of days.