ITS TIME , FINAL WAVE FOR BITCOIN HAS BEGAN The final wave for Bitcoin has officially started; 200k by September 2025 is the call. So far, since October 2024, we have been getting every macro move correct. Going to avoid repeating a lot of content from the previous two TAs; check it out below.
The lower high on the RSI called the momentum shift on this one; it was clear.
December 17th, 2024, calling for a pullback down to 82k for wave 4 to complete; it hit 77k, pretty close.
So last time, I was wrestling with two different dates for a cycle top; the first one was May 2025, and the second was September 2025.
It is clear to me now that mid to late September 2025, Bitcoin will peak at around 200k. It could go slightly higher, but the 185-200k region has a higher outcome.
So, I've been using this small-time Fib, and last time when we hit the 0.618, it was the breakout week for Bitcoin from the long range. We're here again; this week is the big pivot and start of wave 5.
The hash ribbon has confirmed a buy signal, and more importantly, it flashed buy in my Time Fibonacci week. Amazing. If you've been with me for years, you already know that this is the best signal for Bitcoin there is. It is so damn good; this gives so much more weight to my thesis.
Stars seem to align again. They constantly try to shake you out; this is the game. Who is going to fade the hash ribbon buy? It's been the easiest play time and time again.
Seriously, though, for just a moment—are you really going to fade the hash ribbon? :)
1-BTCUSD
Bearish Flag, Bitcoin (4H)Bitcoin has broken a bearish flag in medium time frames. If a rebound comes would be an opportuinty to get short positions.
The problem with Bitcoin is not only the bearish flag currently working on. It has a change of character in daily time frame which I posted a lot about it another of my analysis.
I don't think the values of assest is cheap at the moment. In fact, they're about to get cheaper a lot in coming days.
For now, 76400 is looking like a specific target for the main flag formation.
Thanks for reading.
BITCOIN - Short Trade Entry - Minor Wave ii Looks Complete...The video idea for this chart is linked below. The current thesis is that minor wave ii has recently completed, confirmed by a retest and rejection of the previous key level at 81,222. Additionally, a brief touch of the 0.618 retracement level supports this view, along with the overall wave structure, suggesting that wave ii is complete and we are now in the early stages of wave iii to the downside.
This third wave may start off slowly due to initial market uncertainty, but as sentiment clears, price action typically aligns with the dominant trend—which, in this case, is down.
While it may be a bit premature to lower the stop until we break below 75,786 (the start of Wave E), that level is quite far, and it may be more prudent to keep the stop at recent highs for now. Ultimately, your stop placement should reflect your comfort level with the wave count and risk tolerance.
If the analysis holds, the rejection at 81,222 becomes a logical stop-loss level for a fresh short position. The target remains unchanged at 61,000.
BITCOIN - Short Trade Idea Update - Wave ii Looks Complete...In this video, I break down what I woke up to this morning regarding the wave structure.
With wave ii appearing to be complete, I’m looking to add to my short position and adjust my stop level down to 81,223—creating another potential entry point for the short trade.
Recognizing and understanding these developing patterns is essential if you want to stay in the game.
Where can Bitcoin turn bullish again? (2D)Before anything, pay attention to the timeframe of the analysis. This is a 2-day timeframe, so it will take time.
The green zone is where Bitcoin can start moving toward the specified targets. If the ATH is broken, Bitcoin could also move toward $120K and $140K. However, based on the chart, there is currently no certainty about Bitcoin’s final target.
Reaching the green zone may take more than 4 to 5 weeks.
We are looking for buy/long positions in the green zone.
A daily candle close below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin at Critical Support – Will It Hold or Break? Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast – Potential Breakdown Ahead?
Key Observations:
📉 Strong Support Retest: Bitcoin is currently testing a major support zone around $81,350 - $81,000.
📉 Bearish Momentum: The price has been in a steady downtrend, struggling to hold above key moving averages.
📉 Breakdown Potential: If Bitcoin fails to hold this support, we could see further downside towards $80,046, and possibly as low as $77,685.
Possible Scenarios:
🔴 Bearish Case: A clear break below $81,000 could accelerate selling, leading to a drop towards $80,000 or lower.
🟢 Bullish Case: If BTC holds this support and forms a reversal pattern, we might see a bounce back towards $83,000+.
⚠️ Watch for confirmation! A breakdown could trigger strong bearish momentum! 🚨
What’s your outlook for BTC? Will it hold or break down further? Let me know in the comments! 👇🔥
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
Shorting BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin put a massive Bearish Engulfing Candle yesterday, with high volume, which is very bearish, and now I’m expecting it to continue to decline.
It also tends to follow the US Indices, which are heading lower.
My target is about 70k, maybe even lower.
Good luck to you
April 4 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There are indicators released at 9:30 and 12:00.
First of all, Nasdaq reached a very important point on the chart
yesterday morning.
In a situation where there is no particular movement due to Trump's tariff policy,
it continues to flow downward.
As far as I remember, the US is a country with a lot of showmanship.
I've experienced it a lot while analyzing charts.
There are two indicators released today,
The Bollinger Band monthly central line touches on the chart + two indicators released,
so there is a very high possibility that Nasdaq will go up.
In the end, it's an action and a play on words to pick up and put down the ants,
and it won't be operated to the point where the US is destroyed.
Since there is a stop loss, we proceeded very aggressively.
As you can see, in the indicator announcement time zone,
the blue finger is short->long
or the red finger is long.
The rebound from the bottom is a condition for a sweep when looking at the chart upside down, so if successful, a surge can occur.
I just applied it to Bitcoin.
This is a 30-minute Bitcoin chart.
I marked the daily closing section for each flag,
and the purple flag on the far right is next Monday.
The purple finger on the lower left
is connected to the 81,404.4 dollar entry point yesterday, April 3.
Because it is touching the center line of the Bollinger Band 12-hour chart,
you need to hold on until 9 o'clock when additional candles are created to go up more.
*One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. 83,568 dollar long position entry point / stop loss price when the green support line is broken
2. 86,871.5 dollar long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target
After that, target price in order.
If the strategy is successful, the 1st section that returns
You can use the long position re-entry section
The movement within the 1st section at the top and the 2nd section at the bottom is a sideways market.
If there is a crash in Nasdaq
It can drop below the bottom
And it can drop to 79.7K 3 times over the weekend, so please take note.
Up to this point, my analysis
Please just refer to and use it
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
You worked hard this week too.
Thank you.
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely!
Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant.
I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop.
Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
Bitcoin Lost 50 SMA overnight, what next ? - still BULLISH.In a week where I am still expecting the beginnings of a bounce, we saw a Major Drop overnight.
This has pushed PA below the 50 SMA that I was hoping PA would bounce off, as it had previously.
So, Whats Next ?
It is not as bad as it may appear but CAUTION is a Very Very good idea.
There are a number of lines of support below and if we do not find any soon, 73K is the next line of Support. then down to 71K and ultimately, the long term line at 64K, though I still doubt we will get that low.
But FEAR is BIG...be a Vulture..Buy the remains of people Fear...Bitcoin IS a Scarce asset and people Still want it.
The Weekly MACD
The MACD is now in the bounce Zone. Yes, it may drop below neutral if this "Tariff Fear" continues. But Technically, We now have the ability to bounce once sentiment turns
On a slightly more bearish side is the fact that Histogram has dived deep and Red. The Bears are biting and has momentum
The RSI Relative Strength Index
Like the MACD, the RSI is now in an area where it has bounced in the past and yet, it can still drop further before we reach Neutral ( 30 line ) . It has to be said, the RSI is a bit behind the MACD in that it has a later date when it could reach Neutral. There is no guarantee that Neutral will hold RSI up....
Other Markets are struggling also
The DXY $ has had a sustained drop but is near an area of support. I am watching this closely.
Normaly, we see DXY and BTC move in opposite directions but we have seen both Recover at the same time, The lines between the teo are getting blurred.
GOLD - has been doing well for some omnths
However, in th elast 2 weeks, Gold has been selling off also and saw a steep drop towards the end of last week. Will be very interesting to see where this goes this week
The fact that Gold was selling, shows that investors were comfortable to leave a safe haven.
Lets see if that changes this weel
Conclusion for BITCOIN HOLDERS
This could all sound a little scary for Bitcoin and it should be taken as a HUGE Warning that we Lost the 50 SMA Support. This does open up the possibility of further drops and it may well happen
We are currently heading towards major support at 73K
This is an area I said we could hit a few weeks back and so I am not in a bad state of mind just yet.
If we Loose 71K, I will get uncomfortable.
The Lower timeframes are very much heading to OVERSOLD and so we shold get some support here and then we wait to see if Fear takes hold further.
This week, we Get the FOMC minutes and then Inflation data coming out of the USA
Thsi could Tip the balance either way, depending on the data
For me, I am NOT Selling Just yet.
I imagine many Short term holders will be and these coins will be snapped back up
We wait to see how today plays out
BUY THE DIP
BTC/USDT 4H Chart Update. Current Price: ~$78,336
BTC has broken below the symmetrical triangle and is testing the key horizontal support between $78,424 and $79,183.
A wick is visible below the support, but the candle closed within the area, indicating a potential fakeout or demand absorption.
Resistance (downtrend line): ~$85,500
Support Zones:
Primary: $78,424
Secondary: $79,183
Immediate Resistance: $82,000 – $83,000 (recent breakdown zone)
Outlook & Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal Scenario (Green Arrow):
The green arrow projection suggests a potential bounce from this demand zone.
If BTC reclaims $80K+ with strong momentum, it could aim for the descending trendline near $85K.
A bullish confirmation would be a 4H candle close above $80.5K–$81K.
Bearish continuation (if support fails):
If the price fails to hold this support zone, the next downside targets could be:
$76,000
$73,500
Sentiment factor:
The previous sentiment (Fear & Greed Index: 28 – Fear) reflects ongoing market caution.
Price action near key support in the fear zone could trigger a short squeeze or panic sell-off, depending on volume and reaction.
Summary:
BTC is at crucial support, and unless volume confirms a deeper breakdown, the bounce is likely to be short-lived.
Moving back above $80K would signal that bulls are regaining control.
Want any strategy ideas for trading this setup?
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
BTC - 4 Different Wider Looks at BTC1️⃣ Weekly EMA 55. Many legit touches.
2️⃣ Possible Elliot Wave in Log chart.
3️⃣ 4H EMA 200.
4️⃣ A valid Pitchfork since Dec 2024
Follow for more ideas/Signals. 💲
Look at my other ideas 😉
Just donate some of your profit to Animal rights and rescue or other charity :)✌️
$BTCUSD bottom between $61k-65kI think we're gearing up for one last move lower here in BTC, that should be the end of the bearish move and then we should continue higher from there.
I think it's most likely that we'll hit the $61k or GETTEX:64K support levels to mark the bottom. Why those levels?
That region is the 50% retracement off of the bottom. If we're still in a bull trend, that's where we should bounce.
Level to watch The market is currently at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal decision: either rallying back to 90,000 or breaking the key support level at 73,800.
Previously, I highlighted a potential top once the market reached 100,000, with an initial target around 74,000, which the market has already breached twice. At this stage, it’s a fierce battle between the bulls and the bears, making it challenging to predict the next move.
A rally from here could push the market back into the 85,000-90,000 range. If it breaks through 90,000, there’s potential for a climb to 108,000, possibly even 125,000.
On the other hand, a break below the crucial support at 73,800 could signal a deeper correction, potentially bringing the market down to 48,000.
I've been short on ETH and XRP, expecting a more bearish trend for both. ETH has already hit its target, while XRP could potentially drop back to 0.45.
The upcoming days will certainly be fascinating to watch.
[BTC] Crash to $26k: Generational Buying OpportunitySince 2022, Bitcoin has surged in a major bull market, hitting the psychological $100k milestone. However, a triple divergence on the weekly RSI signals an overbought market, pointing to an imminent pullback.
The recent peak likely marked the end of Wave (3). Given that Wave (2) was an expanding flat (verifiable on lower timeframes), Wave (4) should bring a sharp, significant correction.
Wave 4 of (3) formed a running triangle, followed by a short Wave 5—exactly as occurred. Running triangles in Wave 4 paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution, typically preceding a major move against the trend.
The price action from March 2024 into 2025 resembles classic distribution. Since peaking near $110k, Bitcoin has declined slowly but steadily, suggesting a major crash rather than a typical medium-term pullback.
The $26k–$30k range offers robust support, and it’s unlikely the price will drop much lower. Along the way, the 200-week moving average (MA200 Weekly)—Bitcoin’s strongest historical support—could trigger a significant bounce. However, if this level is decisively breached, full-blown panic could ensue.
Given my expectation of a 2008-style bear market in the S&P 500 (see related ideas), the timing aligns perfectly. A market-wide crash would inevitably impact Bitcoin, as panic drives capital out of all markets to meet margin calls.
The $26k zone should mark the crash’s bottom, potentially presenting a generational Bitcoin-buying opportunity. If the S&P 500 retests its COVID lows while Bitcoin only revisits its 2023 consolidation range, it would underscore BTC’s relative strength. Once panic subsides, capital could flood into Bitcoin from across the globe.
Technically, this would be the bottom of Wave (4). Wave (5) could then propel Bitcoin to $1 million per coin in a powerful uptrend.