Analysis of the Recent Price Trend of BitcoinRecently, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating wildly, and the market is in a fierce battle between bulls and bears. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $85,000, showing a convergent triangle pattern, which indicates that significant fluctuations may occur in the short term.
In terms of capital flow, the main funds are quite active. Although there are large market - price sell orders suppressing the price, the buying signals are also very obvious, and the bullish power is gradually increasing. If Bitcoin can break through the $86,000 mark, it may trigger a more substantial increase. Moreover, since the rebound from the low point, Bitcoin has been stable above $84,000, providing certain support for the upward trend.
From a macro perspective, global liquidity is closely related to the price of Bitcoin. It is expected that major central banks will continue to cut interest rates in the next two years, and the M2 money supply is likely to expand, which is good news for Bitcoin. Since February 2024, the global M2 has been rising continuously, laying a solid foundation for risky assets such as Bitcoin. In addition, if the U.S. fiscal policy, the change of the U.S. dollar, and the adjustment of the money supply develop in a favorable direction, it will also boost the demand for Bitcoin.
However, the market is not without risks. Retail investors need to be vigilant against the backlash of selling. At the same time, there is still selling pressure in the range above $96,500. Overall, in the next half - month, if the bulls can continue to exert force with the help of capital and macro - level positive factors, Bitcoin is expected to hit higher prices.
BTC Trading Strategy:
BTCUSDT sell@87K-89K
tp:83K-81K
I firmly believe realized profit and a high win - rate are the best measures of trading skill. Daily, I share highly precise trading signals. These include clear entry points, stop - loss levels for risk control, and profit - taking targets from in - depth analysis. Follow me for big financial market returns. Click my profile for a trading guide on trends, strategies, and risk management.
1-BTCUSD
ROAD TO 130K !!!Now that Bitcoin is returning to the cup-and-handle support, one can expect a strong pump up to 130k . it might happen.
Give me some energy !!
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What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin at a Crossroads
Bitcoin has reached a key support zone after its recent decline and is now in recovery mode. We expect this upward movement to continue until it reaches the identified resistance level, targeting the $95,000 range.
At this point, two potential scenarios are in play, as shown in the chart:
1–Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin successfully breaks the $95,000 resistance, the path for further upside will be clear, and higher targets could be reached.
2–Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break this key resistance, a correction and decline toward lower support levels may follow.
The next move for Bitcoin depends on how it reacts at the resistance level.
What are your thoughts on the upcoming price action?
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Why EURUSD is still Bullish? Detailed Fundaments and technicals EURUSD is showing strong bullish momentum, currently trading around 1.087 and bouncing as predicted. The pair has respected key support levels, confirming the continuation of the **uptrend**. With increasing buying pressure, we anticipate further upside movement toward the main target of 1.1200. The **bullish structure remains intact**, and if this momentum sustains, eurusd could soon hit the projected target.
From a technical perspective, the pair has formed a solid base near recent support, aligning with key **fibonacci retracement levels** and previous demand zones. A break above **1.0900 psychological resistance** will add further confirmation to the bullish bias, leading to a potential rally toward **1.1000 and beyond**. Traders should look for volume confirmation and price action signals for additional entry opportunities.
On the fundamental side, the **us dollar is facing slight weakness**, primarily due to shifting Federal Reserve expectations and lower bond yields. Meanwhile, **eurozone economic data** has shown resilience, supporting the euro’s strength. If risk sentiment remains positive and economic conditions continue improving, eurusd could maintain its bullish trajectory and test higher resistance levels.
Overall, eurusd is still in a bullish phase, and with strong buying momentum, the price is on track to reach the **1.1200 target**. Traders should monitor key levels and market sentiment for potential breakout confirmations.
Litecoin LTCUSD Completing Final Leg Down Before LaunchAs you can see Litecoin is forming a very similar pattern. I think the rest of March will be corrective. Litecoin will likely come down and bounce off the trend line which coincidental also is a major support level. April will be slightly bullish, May and June will be majorly bullish which I believe Bitcoin will also fly up to 140k as well in this time. I believe Litecoin will outperform the majority of the market. Major hyperinflation will begin this summer which will be very positive for crypto. Many cryptos will die in this hyperinflation period. Only some will survive. Dollar is going to crash. Get ready for a wild ride into 2026. People calling for a bear market are ill informed and will kick themselves for selling. This is the beginning of the biggest run in some cryptos, we've ever seen. Buckle up. Good luck. Not financial advice.
Falling wedge found on Daily TimeframeYou're absolutely right, the falling wedge pattern often suggests a potential breakout to the upside, but it's important to be cautious. That "bleed off" to around 70k could still be part of a larger consolidation before a big move. If we break down out of the wedge, it would definitely signal more bearish market sentiment, especially considering the broader macro risks you're highlighting like geopolitical instability, health crises, and climate concerns.
It's a bit of a nerve-wracking but exciting situation, especially with the unpredictable nature of markets these days. How are you thinking of positioning yourself in this scenario? Holding out for the breakout, or preparing for the downside risk as well?
BITCOIN 50 & 100 SMA Patterns since 2014 -UPDATE - ATH in Q4 ?This is a long post but please read it all, there are some Major things to take note of.
The Main item in this post is the day counts between 50 SMA ( RED ) and 100 SMA ( BLUE ) and the days between Cross overs of these.
The upper day counts on the chart, count from ATH to when 50 crosses below the 100.
Then from that point to when the 50 Crosses back Above the 100
And then, in Grey, the number of days from Cross over to ATH
From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 406 days
And from that point to the 2017 ATH = 560 days
From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 284 days
And from that point to the 2021 ATH = 686 days ( I am using the Nov 2921 ATH as it was the higher price )
From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 441 days
And from that point to the 2025 ATH = The average of the 2 previous is 623 days and takes us to a possible ATH in August, though I feel this is too soon.
If we Look at the day count from ATH to 50 dropping below 100
From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days
From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days
From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days
Could this point towards around 200 days after ATH in 2025?
( This reduction in day count is most likely due ti rapid Profit taking. )
What is interesting is how, on Both the 2014 - 2017 and 2017 - 2021 ATH it was approx 1005 days between the 50 rising above the 100 to when ot fell back below after an ATH. This is Despite a variation in the days count between SMA cross overs.
Using this day count and projecting forward, maybe we can expect the 50 to drop back below the 100 in August 2026, next year
Using the day count from ATH to when 50 Drops below, that was mentioned above, that is around 200 days after ATH and using that August date just mentioned, We are projecting a Cycle ATH in Feb 2026 !
This is NOT a realistic date if we are to remain in the patterns of ATH in late Q4, that we have had every previous cycle.
As I pointed out in a post yesterday, the traditional patterns of Bitcoin HAVE to change this year.
And to many extents, they already have begun.
Take a Look at the angle of ascent of the 50 and 100 SMA's since 2014. Each cycle has seen a reduction of Steepness of Rise.... A slowing down on trajectory and this is most likely caused by the increase of price of a Bitcoin.
The more expensive it gets, the heavier it is to move PA higher.
So far this cycle, PA has landed on the 50 SMA twice and we are SO Close to doing that again.
This has NEVER happened before.
In 2021, we did it once and bounced to the Nov 2021 ATH, so far this cycle, we have done that twice.
This ARE CHANGING and for this to continue, we do need to see PA Bounce again off the 50, when the Bulls are ready.
The ATH in Q4 is open to question as a result. It may happen anytime from Late Q3 to Late Q1 2026
And we are only going to find out when it happens.
But be aware f things changing.
Because they are and so using History may become unusable....a bit like Price discoveryIt will become Trend discovery
Enjoy
Forex Trend Trading: A Complete Guide for Traders📊 Market Structure: Uptrend vs. Downtrend
🔼 Uptrend Market Structure (Higher Highs & Higher Lows)
Price makes higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Indicates buyers are in control.
Traders look for buying opportunities at key support levels.
Example Structure:
📍 HH → HL → Higher HH → Higher HL (trend continuation).
🔽 Downtrend Market Structure (Lower Highs & Lower Lows)
Price forms lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
Sellers dominate the market.
Traders look for selling opportunities at resistance levels.
Example Structure:
📍 LL → LH → Lower LL → Lower LH (trend continuation).
📌 Steps to Trade Trends Effectively
1️⃣ Identify the Trend
✅ Use a higher timeframe (H4, D1, W1) to determine the major trend.
✅ Look for HH & HL (uptrend) or LH & LL (downtrend).
✅ Use trendlines, moving averages, and price action for confirmation.
2️⃣ Find Key Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Use previous swing highs and swing lows to mark key levels.
✅ Identify trendline support & resistance zones.
✅ Look for breakouts or retests for entry confirmation.
3️⃣ Use Technical Indicators for Confirmation
🔹 Moving Averages (MA) – 50 EMA & 200 EMA for trend direction.
🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Overbought (>70) or Oversold (<30) for trend exhaustion.
🔹 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Confirms trend strength & momentum.
4️⃣ Plan Your Entry & Exit Points
✅ Entry Strategy:
Buy at higher lows (HL) in an uptrend.
Sell at lower highs (LH) in a downtrend.
Use candlestick patterns (pin bars, engulfing candles) for confirmation.
✅ Exit Strategy:
Place Stop Loss (SL) below last HL (uptrend) or above LH (downtrend).
Use Take Profit (TP) at key resistance/support levels.
Consider trailing stop losses to maximize gains.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Trade Execution
✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) – Aim for at least 1:2 or higher.
✅ Position Sizing – Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade.
✅ Monitor Trade – Adjust SL/TP as the trade progresses.
🎯 Trend Trading Strategies
📌 Pullback Trading
Wait for a retracement to a support/resistance level.
Enter at key Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%).
Confirm with price action signals.
📌 Breakout Trading
Enter when price breaks a major resistance (uptrend) or support (downtrend).
Wait for a retest of broken structure before entering.
Avoid false breakouts using volume confirmation.
📌 Trendline Trading
Draw trendlines connecting HLs (uptrend) or LHs (downtrend).
Enter when price bounces off the trendline in the direction of the trend.
⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Trading against the trend without confirmation.
❌ Ignoring risk management and overleveraging.
❌ Entering too late in an extended trend.
❌ Ignoring economic news & fundamental factors.
📌 Final Thoughts
✅ Trend trading is a powerful strategy when used with proper market analysis.
✅ Always confirm trends with technical indicators & price action.
✅ Stick to your plan, manage risk, and stay disciplined for long-term success.
🔹 Happy Trading & Stay Profitable! 🚀📊
[Potential Bullish Alternative] Bitcoin Elliott Wave CountsLet's face it. None of us want BITSTAMP:BTCUSD to go down. Isn't it?
So whenever I see a potential/local bottom, I start looking for a bullish possibility. Few days back, #BTC dipped below 77K so I started counting waves from that point to see if there could be anything good happening here.
On the 4H chart here, I can see a 5 wave move up (wave (i)) which could be described as a leading diagonal followed by a a-b-c down in wave (ii). The next move up (supposedly wave (iii)) seem to be looking fine so far. I can easily count 5 wave impulse in it by drilling it down to 1H chart. Note that, this would be just i of (iii). SO far so good.
Disclaimer : Note that this is something we all elliott wave chartists do when we see a bottom to assess if a new trend could be starting. This is just one (bullish) alternative that I am exploring. There are bearish alternatives as well.
My take on XRP for Vecino Peache.XRP is currently testing the 50 EMA on the daily time frame, a strong resistance level. Throughout February, it made multiple attempts to break above but failed. This suggests a possible correction. A confirmed break below the 200 EMA on the daily chart would further validate this bearish outlook.
My take; I have an OTZ (Optimal Trade Zone) on the 4-hour time frame, which acts as a strong support level. If price breaks below this zone, it signals a potential shift in market direction. As long as XRP respects this support, I will trade it conservatively.
Let me know what are your thoughts on my take.
BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)
Let's take a look at local movements on INDEX:BTCUSD .
Since last post Bitcoin moved in our favor, reached 38,500$.
We have a strong bounce here, which is heading towards upper 40s as long as daily close was above big red candle.
There is a probability, that Bitcoin is going to draw lower high which can be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8 (Golden Pocket) Fib. In confluence we have several magnets at this range.
Possible stop losses around 43,500$
Fair Value Gap around 44,500$. Possible liquidations Across top 3 exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) totaling around 4.0 Bln. USD. (This number covers last 30 Days Data)
Hence we should take into consideration, that huge amount of liquidity is sitting down in the previous reaccumulation zone. (Suggesting to check out Liquidity Heatmap . Putting link because I am not able to add screenshot.)
- - - - - - - - -
Next I want to mention one weird thread I bumped into on Twitter.
It’s about HTX (ex Huobi), which is owned by Justin Sun. They turned off their proof-of-reserves system, what hints about their insolvency. Onchain analysis say that they have problems with ETH holdings.
Also this is not connected to only HTX, things are being wrong with TUSD and stUSDT (Stacked USDT receipt on TRON Network).
For further details about this event please read thread from adamscochran on twitter . Hence there was around 600 Mln. USDT transfer to JustlandDao yesterday.
In the end, I want to mention, that there is no 100% accurate analysis.
We are dealing with probabilities, just with analysis we are shifting probabilities to our favor.
Best Wishes.
BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?!If we take a look at previous 2 notable cycles we easily notice similarities.
From these 2, 2022-2024 looks more similar to 2016-2017, as long as we had -
Breakout of downtrend line. ✅
Reaccumulation zone. ✅
Testing major bear market impulse (Which in all cases became strong resistance). ✅
What we didn't experience is correction after these 3 moves.
In 2016 it was around 40% (Tested reaccumulation zone)
In 2019 it was around 53% (Tested major support / resistance zone).
As long as current market structure somewhat repeats 2016 move, have possibility to retest top of after trend line breakout reaccumulation zone, which sits around 33-32k.
Percentage wise it's around 35% from ETF top and 23% from current price.
What you think ?
BTC SHORT TP:77,000 13-03-2025Bitcoin has broken a significant accumulation zone that was set for an upward movement, now indicating bearish signals. We will look to enter a short position between the 82,000 - 83,000 range, with a take profit set at 76,000 - 77,000.
This analysis is based on 4-hour and 2-hour timeframes, so we anticipate that this will unfold within 25 to 30 hours. If the expected movement does not occur within this timeframe, the trade will be deemed invalid.
Make sure to follow me to stay updated and continue maximizing your profits!
Bitcoin, S&P, Gold: Market Decline & DivergenceThe intricate dance of financial assets often reveals hidden correlations and predictive patterns. Recently, the synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has raised concerns, while gold's historic rally has left Bitcoin trailing. However, a deeper dive into the data suggests a potential turnaround, hinting at a shift in market dynamics.
For much of the past few years, Bitcoin has exhibited a strong correlation with the S&P 500, behaving as a risk-on asset.1 When the stock market surged, Bitcoin often followed suit, and conversely, market downturns typically coincided with Bitcoin's price depreciation. This correlation stems from shared macroeconomic drivers, such as interest rate expectations, inflation concerns, and overall investor sentiment. The recent parallel decline reflects anxieties surrounding persistent inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and geopolitical uncertainties.
However, this synchronized movement doesn't tell the whole story. While Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been grappling with downward pressure, gold has embarked on a remarkable rally, reaching unprecedented heights. This surge is fueled by several factors, including substantial inflows into gold ETFs, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened market volatility. Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed, as investors seek refuge from the turbulence in equity and cryptocurrency markets.
The divergence between Bitcoin and gold is particularly striking. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a metric that reflects the relative value of Bitcoin compared to gold, has broken a 12-year support level. This breach signals a significant shift in investor preference, with gold emerging as the dominant asset. The recent climb of gold to a hypothetical $3,000 mark (or equivalent in other currencies) further underscores this trend, demonstrating its resilience in the face of economic uncertainty.
The observed pattern of Bitcoin breaking its multiyear uptrend against gold bears a striking resemblance to the market behavior witnessed between March 2021 and March 2022. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a similar decline relative to gold, ultimately leading to a substantial drop in its dollar value. This fractal pattern suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for further depreciation, potentially falling below the $65,000 mark.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that historical patterns are not infallible predictors of future performance. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and unforeseen events can significantly alter the trajectory of asset prices. While the current data points towards a potential decline for Bitcoin, there are countervailing factors that could trigger a reversal.
One such factor is the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. As more institutional investors allocate a portion of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies, the market may become less susceptible to short-term fluctuations driven by retail sentiment. Moreover, the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value remains a compelling narrative for many investors.
Additionally, the regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clearer. As governments and regulatory bodies establish frameworks for the operation of digital asset markets, investor confidence may improve, leading to renewed interest in Bitcoin. The upcoming Bitcoin halving is also anticipated to reduce the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, which could potentially drive up its price.
While the current correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 may persist in the short term, the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest a potential decoupling in the long run. As the cryptocurrency market matures and gains wider acceptance, its correlation with traditional asset classes may weaken.
The recent divergence between Bitcoin and gold highlights the importance of diversifying investment portfolios. While gold has proven its resilience in times of uncertainty, Bitcoin offers the potential for substantial returns in the long term. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives when allocating capital to these assets.
The breakdown of the Bitcoin to gold ratio is a concerning indicator, however, the cryptocurrency world moves quickly. The market is driven by new innovation, and adoption. The market has been known to have large pullbacks, followed by even larger rallies. The current market may be pricing in a large amount of fear, and a simple change in the news cycle could cause a large change in the price of bitcoin.
In conclusion, the current market dynamics present a complex picture. The synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, coupled with gold's historic rally, suggests a potential downturn for Bitcoin. However, the long-term potential of Bitcoin, coupled with increasing institutional adoption and a maturing regulatory landscape, could trigger a reversal. Investors should remain vigilant, monitor market trends, and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the underlying fundamentals. The data suggests a potential turn around, but only time will tell if the market will comply.
BTCUSD: Phase 4 of Bull Cycle just started.Bitcoin is about to turn neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.562, MACD = -3343.000, ADX = 34.423) as it is making a big 1W comeback on this week's candle following a nearly perfect touch of the 1W MA50. Every test of the 1W MA50, as well as every test of the S1 1W RSI level, has been a straight buy opportunity inside the Bull Cycle's Channel Up since the very begining of the November 2022 bottom.
As first the price action was concentrated on the lower half of the Channel Up (green zone) but since February 2024 it has been primarily on the upper half (blue zone) as the rallies got more aggressive, with the only exceptions being the 1W MA50 tests such as the current one (green Arcs). Every bottom rebound has increased by at least +98.76%, so that gives us a peak estimate of TP = 150,000. An temprary high around 120k and pullback to 100-90k is a possible scenario based on all previous rallies/ Phases. Phase 4, which should technicall be the final of the Bull Cycle, has just started.
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$84K BTC Battle, ETF Resilience, and Macroeconomic ShadowsBitcoin's journey remains a captivating saga of volatility, resilience, and the interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic forces. Recently, the cryptocurrency surged past $84,000, reigniting bullish sentiment, but faces a critical test at a key resistance level.1 This surge, fueled by a broader rebound in risk assets, pushed BTC above its 200-day moving average, a pivotal benchmark for assessing long-term trends. However, this bullish momentum is juxtaposed with significant selling pressure, ETF outflows, and lingering concerns about regulatory and macroeconomic landscapes.
The 200-Day Moving Average: A Battleground for Bulls
The 200-day moving average is a widely recognized technical indicator that provides insight into the long-term trend of an asset. For Bitcoin, consistently closing above this level signifies a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. The recent breach is a positive sign for bulls, indicating renewed confidence and potentially attracting further investment. However, a sustained close above this level is crucial to solidify the bullish outlook.
The importance of this level is highlighted by the narrative that a weekly close above this average would confirm a market bottom. This emphasizes the significance of longer timeframes in validating trends in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.
$86K or $65+K: A Price at a Crossroads
Bitcoin's price currently finds itself at a critical juncture. The immediate challenge is breaching the $86,000 resistance level. A successful breakout could pave the way for further gains, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to a pullback towards the $65,000 support level. This range represents a crucial battleground for bulls and bears, with the outcome likely to determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price.
MVRV Ratio: A Potential Reversal Indicator
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is another key metric that investors closely monitor. It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, providing insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions. A high MVRV ratio suggests that Bitcoin is overvalued and prone to a correction, while a low ratio indicates undervaluation and potential for a rebound. The MVRV ratio nearing a key level suggests that a major reversal could be imminent, adding another layer of complexity to Bitcoin's current price action.
ETF Resilience Amidst Volatility
Despite a 25% price drop, Bitcoin ETF investors have maintained a relatively strong stance. This resilience is reflected in the collective $115 billion in assets under management by US Bitcoin ETFs. This demonstrates the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. However, since mid-February, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed total outflows of nearly $5 billion. This outflow points to a potential shift in investor sentiment, possibly driven by concerns about market volatility or macroeconomic uncertainties.
The strength of the ETF market is a double edged sword. While significant holdings demonstrate institutional buy in, large outflows can increase sell pressure on the underlying asset.
Selling Pressure and Macroeconomic Shadows
Bitcoin's recent decline is attributed to intensified selling pressure, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion in the market. This selling pressure is exacerbated by concerns about the potential impact of digital currencies on traditional banking systems. Banks are increasingly weighing the implications of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to regulatory scrutiny and potential policy changes.
Furthermore, macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to market volatility and impacting the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Presidential Policy and Market Sentiment
A presidential policy aimed at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve initially sparked optimism among investors. However, this initial enthusiasm waned, highlighting the complex interplay between policy announcements and market reactions. While such policies can signal government acceptance of cryptocurrencies, they may not always translate into immediate price appreciation.
The market's reaction suggests that investors are more focused on broader macroeconomic trends and regulatory clarity. The lack of sustained positive impact from the policy announcement underscores the importance of addressing fundamental concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and regulatory framework.
Navigating the Volatility
Bitcoin's current situation highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors must remain vigilant and adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. The interplay of technical indicators, ETF flows, and macroeconomic factors creates a complex landscape that requires careful analysis and strategic decision-making.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's battle at $84K, coupled with the resilience of ETF investors and the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainties, paints a picture of a market at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum or succumb to renewed selling pressure. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency investing.
BTC to likely kiss the $74K - $69KBitcoin Market Analysis and Forecast
Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its all-time high (ATH). Despite a rebound from the Fibonacci 50% level to its current price of $84,600, continued selling pressure could push BTC lower toward the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement zone, which lies between $74,000 and $69,000.
This potential pullback presents strategic entry points for long-term investors who have the patience to hold through market cycles.
Given the current market conditions, I will continue to accumulate using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy to mitigate volatility and optimize long-term gains.
I will be monitoring the price action closely and providing further updates as the market develops.
Bitcoin is ABSOLUTELY under Pressure - It MUST react before DECI have been looking at this in detail for some time and have decided to change how I calculate things and here is the result.
There are 2 things of Massive importance to see here.
First is that Curve that PA has been under since 2010
The Lower Dashed Line is the Trend line formed in 2011. It is Strong and it is Valid and PA is currently running along it.
Here is a closer image to show you where we are in relation to it right now. Directly below PA currently, we hit that line around 67K
The Apex of this "Triangle" is December THIS YEAR
PA Has to break Above that Arc, the same Arc that has Rejected PA EVERY TIME since 2011
BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - IT HAS TO BE and here is why
I am not going to explain the % increase each Cycle Low to ATH, it is in the chart but I do want to show you this,
The first real push of Bitcoin was a massive % rise that created the ATH that formed the 1st point of the Lower Trend line of the New channel. This is A on the chart
The Next push was to B. This push was 1.433% of the Original push A - smaller by a long way in % terms.
These 2 moves created the channel that PA has remained in ever since. ( see dashed upper trend line)
From this point on, we can see that each cycle push , while in channel, has been approx 20% of the previous rise. Or around 1/5 of the size in % terms
Or to put is another way, Each Rise has been a diminishing % rise from previous.
Look at that curve. It has pushed PA down each cycle ATH
This cycle, we are currently at 26.7% of the previous push ( to 2021 ATH ) and it has created a cycle ATH currently.
But is the cycle Over ? - Hopefully NOT
Because if it is NOT over, we need to break through that Curve of resistance by December.
The Much expected 200K ATH is way over that curve and would result in a 55% of previous push rise. That would break the "trend"
This is VERY Different. But Absolutely required.
So, the question that should be on Everyone's lips is "Which is stronger ? The line or the Arc ?"
My expectation is that we will break through. That Arc has been a Major part of the formative years of Bitcoin PA but now, it could prove detrimental. Because, if we do not break through it, It will push Peice DOWN, through that line of Long term support.
We do not want that
SO, Maybe THIS is why the Bulls are waiting for the Weekly MACD to reset to Neutral...PA Needs the strength to break through.
So, Go Buy your Local BULL a Beer ( or white wine lol ) and Lets get on.
Watch this Close. It really is more important that Trumps Reserve, Saylors Love nest or Bezos after burners.................
Btcusd support for pullback This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price analysis on a 1-day timeframe (from Coinbase) includes key technical indicators:
1. Double Top Formation – Marked at the resistance level, this pattern typically signals a potential price reversal. The price failed to break above this level twice before declining.
2. Resistance Level – A trendline acting as a strong resistance, previously rejecting price movements. The chart suggests that Bitcoin needs to break through this level for further bullish momentum.
3. Support Zones – Two green zones indicate key support levels where buying pressure has historically increased, preventing further declines.
4. Projected Price Action – The analysis suggests a short-term decline towards support, followed by a bullish rebound. The price is expected to test resistance again and potentially break out toward $104,283.
5. Volume Profile – The right side of the chart shows the volume traded at different price levels. Higher volume zones indicate strong areas of interest for buyers and sellers.
Overall, this analysis suggests a temporary dip followed by a potential breakout to new highs, contingent on Bitcoin holding support and overcoming resistance.