NFP LESS THAN EXPECTED. KEY LEVELS TO WATCHThe U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Changed By 143,000 In January, Compared With Expectations Of 175,000 And A Previous Value Of 256,000
KEY LEVELS.
We expect a rise in xauusd value to 2894 .
2869
2874
2883
2889
2894
2910
Alternative scenario
if 2860 is broken it may fall to 2855 and 2840 can act as a strong support.
the ultimate support for current scenario is 2833.
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1-BTCUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Carryover PatternAs many of you know, I'm still expecting a breakdown in the markets leading to my Deep-V pattern on the 9th and the secondary Major Bottom on the 10th.
Why haven't we started to move downward yet? I really don't know. I suspect the markets are being pushed higher by Market Makers trying to crush the shorts (premium).
Either way, we'll know how this is going to play out over the next 5+ days.
If I'm right, we'll see the SPY break downward towards 580-590 over the next 5+ days.
The QQQ should move down 510-515 throughout that same breakdown (possibly a bit lower).
I expect Gold and Silver to also move downward if this breakdown in the SPY/QQQ happens as I expect. Metals tend to move downward when the SPY/QQQ makes a sudden impulsive breakdown move.
Bitcoin also appears to be poised for a breakdown event.
It seems that all the indexes and symbols I follow in the morning video are already standing near the edge of a cliff, just waiting to jump off.
I urge traders to move into a protective mode (protecting open longs and hedging against any breakdown event) over the next 5-10+ days.
We'll eventually see another bounce/rally off some lows, but right now, everything looks ready to JUMP (off the cliff).
Get Some.
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NFP released . WHATS NEXT? The U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Changed By 143,000 In January, Compared With Expectations Of 175,000 And A Previous Value Of 256,000
1. Stock Market
Negative Sentiment in Growth-Oriented Sectors: Slower job growth may point to a cooling economy, potentially dampening investor sentiment, especially in sectors reliant on strong consumer spending (e.g., retail, technology).
Support for Defensive Sectors: Sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare may see gains as investors seek safety amid uncertainty.
Volatility Increase: Markets may experience heightened volatility as traders assess the implications for corporate earnings and broader economic growth.
2. Bond Market
Treasury Yields May Decline: Weak job growth often leads to expectations of slower economic expansion, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries. This could drive bond prices higher and yields lower.
Expectations for Federal Reserve Policy: If the labor market shows signs of slowing, it could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may halt or even reverse interest rate hikes to support the economy.
3. Currency Market
Pressure on the U.S. Dollar: A weaker labor market could weigh on the U.S. dollar as it may signal reduced economic resilience and lower interest rate differentials with other currencies.
Opportunities for Other Currencies: The euro or yen, perceived as alternatives to the dollar, might strengthen.
4. Commodity Market
Gold Prices May Rise: Gold could benefit from lower bond yields and a weaker dollar, as it is considered a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
Oil and Industrial Metals Might Decline: A slowing labor market could signal reduced industrial activity and energy demand, potentially weighing on commodity prices.
5. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
Rate Cuts May Be Anticipated: A weak NFP report strengthens the argument for a more dovish Fed stance. Markets may begin pricing in rate cuts or pauses, especially if future labor data corroborates a slowdown.
Focus on Inflation Data: The Fed's response will also depend on inflation. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed could be caught between addressing economic weakness and maintaining price stability.
WULF - Sustainable Bitcoin mining - x3Potential x3 here, good moment to enter.
TeraWulf Inc. is a company focused on sustainable Bitcoin mining. It aims to provide domestically produced Bitcoin powered by 100% zero-carbon energy. The company leverages its expertise in energy infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining to create efficient and environmentally friendly mining operations.
Key Advantages
Sustainable Mining Practices: TeraWulf is committed to using 100% zero-carbon energy sources for its mining operations. This focus on sustainability not only reduces the environmental impact but also positions the company favorably in an industry often criticized for its carbon footprint.
Strategic Energy Partnerships: The company has established partnerships with energy providers to ensure a reliable and cost-effective power supply. This strategic approach helps in maintaining low operational costs and enhances profitability.
Experienced Leadership: TeraWulf is led by a team with extensive experience in both the energy and cryptocurrency sectors. This expertise allows the company to navigate the complexities of the industry effectively and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Scalability: With plans to expand its mining capacity, TeraWulf is well-positioned to scale its operations in response to increasing demand for Bitcoin. This scalability is a significant advantage as the cryptocurrency market continues to grow.
Market Position: As one of the few companies focusing on sustainable Bitcoin mining, TeraWulf has carved out a niche in the market. This unique positioning can attract environmentally conscious investors and partners.
Overall, TeraWulf Inc. combines sustainable practices with strategic partnerships and experienced leadership to offer a compelling proposition in the Bitcoin mining industry.
Next Volatility Period: Around February 9 (February 8-10)
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Auxiliary indicators can be useful when you judge that there is an ambiguous part when looking at the movement of price candles.
Therefore, you should not trade based on the movement of auxiliary indicators.
The basic information for trading is the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Then, check the movement or arrangement of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts) indicator, which can indicate the trend.
For example, if you thought that the uptrend would continue after a large volatility, you can use the movements of the StochRSI indicator and DMI UP indicator in the auxiliary indicators to help you understand the current movement.
Since the DMI UP indicator shows D+ < D-, you can see that the downward strength is strong, and you can see that the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold zone.
Therefore, you can see that there is a high possibility of a decline.
Therefore, since the movement you thought and the movement that the indicator shows are different, you can conclude that it is necessary to check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
The ADX<25 indicator and the DMI UP indicator are indicators included in the DOM indicator.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It is showing a downward trend by failing to rise above the high boundary zone.
Accordingly, we need to check if it can be supported near 97461.86.
If it falls without being supported, it is expected that it will eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and determine the trend again.
At this time, the important support and resistance range is the 92792.05-94742.35 range.
As the trading volume increases, it is highly likely that it will show a downward sideways movement until it shows support at the support and resistance points.
The downward sideways movement is likely to continue until it reaches the low point where it showed a large fluctuation.
-
Because the gap between the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is large, it seems that there are more and more people who expect it to fall below 90K in order to reduce the gap.
From a long-term perspective, the important point is around the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).
If it falls below this, there is a high possibility that a downtrend will begin.
-
Therefore, when we touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, we need to recheck the status of the chart and create or modify a trading strategy.
Therefore, there is no need to be caught up in the fear that it will lead to a bigger decline in advance.
If we think about how to respond when it moves at the support and resistance points or sections mentioned above and respond accordingly, we will have a good opportunity when a big decline occurs.
To do this, we should always try to keep about 20% of the total investment in cash.
Therefore, we need to take profit or cut losses to keep cash.
This is an important factor when creating a trading strategy.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support or resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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How High Can BITCOIN go versus GOLD (sorry uncle Peter Schiff)One of the frequent topics of discussion revolves around the legitimacy of this pattern. There’s a widespread misunderstanding about the continuation type of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Indeed, it is a valid and dependable chart pattern.
Let’s explore this often-recognized chart pattern in more detail.
The Head and Shoulders chart pattern can manifest as a continuation on price charts. In an uptrend, a continuation H&S will closely resemble a H&S bottom, while in a downtrend, it will look like an inverse H&S. The implications and interpretations of a continuation H&S are generally consistent with those of reversal patterns. Price targets can be established in the same manner as they are for reversal patterns.
When a head and shoulders continuation forms during an uptrend, it typically breaks out to new highs once the pattern is completed. Breakouts to all-time highs from bullish continuation patterns are often reliable and robust.
Edwards and Magee highlighted the H&S continuation in their book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," back in the 1930s. The pattern remains largely unchanged in today’s price charts.
Bullish on BTCCRYPTOCAP:BTC - Bitcoin is flashing multiple **strong buy signals** right now. Here's why it's primed to explode:
1. **Institutional Tsunami:** Major players like BlackRock and even U.S. states (Utah’s Bitcoin reserve bill advancing) are piling in. This isn’t hype—it’s a structural shift as Bitcoin becomes a legitimate reserve asset.
2. **Supply Squeeze:** Exchange reserves are drying up. With demand surging and fewer coins available to buy, prices *have* to rise. This exact pattern triggered past bull runs.
3. **Political Tailwinds:** A pro-crypto U.S. administration and Trump’s fund buying Bitcoin signal regulatory easing. When governments and elites back an asset, retail follows.
4. **Technical Breakout:** Bitcoin is holding critical support at $96k while analysts eye $150k+ targets. Charts show bullish divergence—smart money is accumulating during dips.
Bitcoin isn’t just "digital gold" anymore. It’s the backbone of a new financial system, and the pieces are falling into place **now**. Don’t miss the train.
BTC trade idea for long so there is unmitigated demand zone near 95700ish level i have marked that area with green box
wait for the price and check if the level is being respected and price is trying to form bullish condition or any green candlestick pattern
because news or anything else external can affect the technical analysis for its failure
and stop loss could be 93600-650 with target of 100,830 that comes around 2.5 risk to reward go easy with the size of trade
will update the idea further as price action forms nearby our level
Gold's Rally and Bitcoin's Dip: Decoding the SignalsIs Gold's Glitter a Warning Sign? Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Plummets as Physical Gold Demand Soars
Gold, the timeless safe-haven asset, has been experiencing a resurgence, raising eyebrows and sparking discussions about potential economic headwinds. Its recent outperformance, coupled with a dramatic drop in the Bitcoin-gold ratio and a surge in physical gold deliveries, suggests growing concerns about the global financial landscape. Are these developments harbingers of fiscal worries ahead?
Gold's Allure Returns
Gold's appeal as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty has been rekindled. While the yellow metal has historically played a crucial role in portfolios seeking diversification and stability, its recent performance has been particularly noteworthy. Gold prices have reached all-time highs, driven by a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fears of economic slowdown.
One significant factor contributing to gold's rise is the escalating trade tensions between major economic powers. Past trade disputes, such as the tariff exchanges between the US and China, have historically fueled safe-haven demand, benefiting gold. The current geopolitical climate, marked by increasing uncertainty and potential for conflict, further strengthens this narrative.
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Plummets: A Shift in Investor Sentiment?
The Bitcoin-gold ratio, a metric that compares the price of Bitcoin to that of gold, has recently plummeted to a 12-week low. This decline suggests a shift in investor sentiment, with many seemingly favoring the traditional safe haven of gold over the more volatile cryptocurrency. While Bitcoin has often been touted as "digital gold," its price volatility and perceived regulatory risks may be driving investors back to the established stability of physical gold. This shift could indicate a broader move away from riskier assets and towards more traditional safe havens.
Physical Gold Demand Soars: A Flight to Tangible Assets
Adding fuel to the gold fire is the dramatic increase in physical gold deliveries. Reports indicate a surge in gold shipments to the U.S., with traders actively loading the precious metal onto planes bound for American shores. Furthermore, major financial institutions are playing a significant role in this trend. Investment banking giant JPMorgan, for example, is reportedly planning to deliver a staggering $4 billion worth of gold to New York this month. This substantial demand for physical gold underscores a preference for tangible assets, potentially signaling a lack of confidence in the stability of financial markets or fiat currencies.
Global Gold Demand Hits Record High: India Sees Uptick
The global appetite for gold is not limited to the U.S. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand has reached record highs in 2024. Even in price-sensitive markets like India, gold demand has seen a 5% uptick. This widespread increase in gold consumption further reinforces the narrative of a flight to safety and a growing unease about the global economic outlook.
Is Gold's Outperformance a Sign of Fiscal Worries Ahead?
The confluence of factors driving gold's resurgence – geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, declining Bitcoin-gold ratio, and soaring physical gold demand – raises the critical question: are these indicators of deeper fiscal worries on the horizon? While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, the historical precedent suggests a strong correlation between periods of economic uncertainty and increased demand for gold.
Gold's role as a hedge against inflation and economic turmoil is well-established. When investors perceive heightened risks in the global economy, they often flock to gold as a safe haven, driving up its price. The current environment certainly exhibits many of the characteristics that have historically triggered such a flight to safety.
The Potential Implications
If the current gold rush is indeed a sign of growing fiscal concerns, the implications could be significant. Increased demand for gold could put further upward pressure on prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures. Furthermore, a shift away from riskier assets could lead to increased volatility in financial markets and potentially trigger a broader economic downturn.
A Word of Caution
While the evidence suggests a potential link between gold's outperformance and fiscal worries, it's essential to exercise caution. Market dynamics are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors. Gold's price can be volatile, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. It's crucial to avoid drawing hasty conclusions based solely on gold's price movements.
Conclusion
Gold's recent surge, coupled with the decline in the Bitcoin-gold ratio and the surge in physical gold deliveries, presents a compelling narrative. While it's too early to definitively declare a looming fiscal crisis, the confluence of factors driving gold's resurgence warrants close attention. Investors should carefully consider these developments and assess their potential impact on their portfolios. Whether gold's glitter is a mere reflection of market jitters or a harbinger of deeper economic troubles remains to be seen. However, the current trends certainly raise important questions about the health of the global economy and the potential for increased volatility in the near future.
Bitcoin's Price Outlook: Support Levels, ETF Surge, and EmergingBitcoin's Price Outlook: Support Levels, ETF Surge, and Emerging Threats
Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, finds itself at a critical juncture. While recent data reveals a surge in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and identifies a key support level, looming challenges related to liquidity, government policy, and weakening momentum suggest a potential struggle in the near future. The next 30 days could prove to be a game-changer, determining whether Bitcoin can consolidate its gains or faces a significant downturn.
Key Support Level Identified
Technical analysis suggests a crucial support level for Bitcoin at $96,000. This figure coincides with the realized price for short-term Bitcoin holders, a metric that often acts as a reliable support or resistance level. Should Bitcoin fall below this threshold, it could trigger further sell-offs and potentially lead to a deeper correction. Conversely, if the price can hold above this level, it may signal renewed strength and pave the way for a potential rebound.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's price action, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a remarkable surge in inflows. Year-over-year, these inflows have increased by a staggering 175%, with total net inflows exceeding $40.6 billion. This substantial investment from institutional and retail investors underscores the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and suggests a strong underlying demand. The continued accumulation of Bitcoin by these investment vehicles could provide a buffer against potential price drops and contribute to long-term price appreciation.
The Next 30 Days: A Potential Turning Point
The next 30 days are crucial for Bitcoin. Several factors could influence its price trajectory, making this period a potential turning point for the market. These factors include:
• Liquidity Conditions: Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by the availability of fiat currency. Concerns are rising as critical sources of fiat liquidity begin to tighten. This tightening could make it more difficult for investors to purchase Bitcoin, potentially putting downward pressure on the price.
• Government Policy: The U.S. presidential administration's approach to Bitcoin remains a significant factor. The slow progress in creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve raises questions about the government's long-term vision for the cryptocurrency. Clarity on regulatory frameworks and government adoption could significantly impact investor confidence and market sentiment.
• Technical Momentum: Bitcoin's upward momentum appears to be weakening. Technical charts suggest a potential loss of steam, with indicators pointing towards a possible correction. Traders will be closely monitoring these technical signals to gauge the direction of the market.
Risks to Watch Out For
Bitcoin faces several risks that could hinder its progress and potentially lead to a significant price correction. These include:
• Loss of the $96,000-$110,000 Range: Failure to hold above the $90,600 support level could lead to a retest of the broader $96,000-$110,000 range. A sustained break below this range could signal a more significant downturn.
• Tightening Liquidity: As mentioned earlier, the tightening of fiat liquidity poses a major threat to Bitcoin's price. Reduced access to fiat currency could limit buying power and lead to increased volatility.
• Uncertainty in Government Policy: The lack of clarity regarding government regulation and adoption of Bitcoin creates uncertainty in the market. Negative regulatory developments or a lack of clear guidance could dampen investor enthusiasm.
Balancing Act
Bitcoin's current situation is a delicate balancing act. While the surge in ETF inflows and the identification of a key support level offer some positive signs, the looming risks related to liquidity, government policy, and weakening momentum cannot be ignored. The next 30 days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can navigate these challenges and continue its upward trajectory.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's price outlook remains uncertain. While the substantial inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the presence of a key support level offer some encouragement, the cryptocurrency faces significant headwinds. Tightening liquidity, the slow progress in establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and weakening technical momentum are all cause for concern. The next month will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its footing or if it is poised for a correction. Investors should proceed cautiously, closely monitoring market developments and preparing for potential volatility. The long-term potential of Bitcoin remains a topic of much debate, but the short-term future hinges on how it navigates these immediate challenges.
BTC/USD Daily Buy the 100 SMA BTC is about to meet a major rising trend line that is converging with the 100 sma on the daily chart. This is where I am expecting the price to reverse. I think the current price is a discount that wont last much longer. Once we meet the trend line and the 100 sma, there might be more fireworks. Keep an eye on this.
Not financial advice, do your own dd.
Thanks for viewing the idea.
Altcoins potential to start rally!As pointer before by others, Altcoins may be about to start their bullish rally.
The 3 charts indicate:
BTC price history,
BTC dominance (%)
Altcoin dominance ( minus ETH, BTC, in %)
What we see in the chart are 2 possible escenarios:
1- BTC has reached top and is about to drop, like in 2016, leading to the rise in dominance of altcoins.
2- BTC has not reached top, but the incoming BTC short rally will come together with a bigger rally (in relative terms) for the alcoin market. In other words, the BTC price action will be parasited by a capital flip to altcoins.
Keep in mind always may happen a 3rd scenario, risk is always present:
3-BTC has reached its top and will start bear market, plus Altcoins will never see a true bullish market from now on. This is particularly probable, since politics and economics in US has turned in favor of BTC mainly, leaving "most" of the altcoin market as not recognized can be a very bad thing for investor, who are eager to reduce the huge risk this crypto market implies.
DISCLAIMER:
Remember, all of this is speculation of my own, based on others analysis. You are responsible for doing your own research, and this is not a financial advice. This only represents my sentiment and opinion in the market. I do hold several crypto-curriencies, including BTC. You are responsible for your own loses.
Happy trading !
:)
Bitcoin is at a decision point.I would not be surprised if Bitcoin started correction waves from the Fibonacci 1.618 point.
RSI also looks weak.
Less likely, correction waves may begin after Fibonacci rises to 2.618 levels.
Harmonic patterns often target Fibonacci 1.618 levels.
Trump has had a major impact on the world economy and politics recently. This impact has also affected the crypto markets. Therefore, it makes sense to revise our analysis.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-6-25: Counter-Trend RALLY Today's pattern is a counter-trend Rally pattern. I read this as a downward trending type of rally phase/bar.
Much like yesterday's rally in the markets. Today should be just the opposite - a downward trending bar.
I believe this is a move downward setting up the Deep-V pattern which should hit early next week.
I suggest traders prepare for a rollover-topping pattern near this upper resistance area and prepare for the markets to move downward - seeking support.
Gold and Silver will likely move downward as well if the market does roll over, as I suspect. Gold and Silver tend to move downward when the markets shift into a downward trend.
Bitcoin is trapped within a range (again), and it appears that over the next few days, it will attempt to move downward with the markets.
Again, the next four to five days will be a do-or-die type of move. I've been telling all of you this Deep-V breakdown will happen for more than thirty days, so I'm watching to see if it really does happen.
Either way, it is now a bad idea to take some profits near these highs in preparation for any potential breakdown.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold