SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 10-22: Gap Reversal In Counter-TrendToday's Gap Reversal in Counter Trend mode should resolve as a moderate downward early price trend - possibly transitioning into a base/bottom and turning higher near the end of the trading day today.
Looking at the charts, it appears price is actually leading my SPY Cycle Patterns by about 12+ hours right now. Why?? I don't actually know why - but it appears price is anticipating the cycle patterns a bit early.
Given the heightened sense of concern related to the elections, price may be rolling through stages of liquidity and volatility with only about 15 days to go before the elections.
Either way, as I suggested, this week is going to be tough to trade with the markets moving into a pause phase ahead of the elections. Most traders are trying to position assets away from the markets or are planning on riding things out past the elections right now.
I continue to suggest traders scale back allocation levels this week and next because of the issues related to liquidity in the markets.
Look for the SPY/QQQ to attempt to find a base and try to melt upward near the end of trading today.
Gold & Silver should stay rather muted today.
Bitcoin is consolidating - just as I suggested.
Get some.
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1-BTCUSD
BITCOIN When the 4 year Cycles do the talking..It's been some time since we last used the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) but the timing is just right to bring you an update, only 2 weeks before the U.S. Presidential Elections with the market ahead on an imminent bullish break-out.
This time we look into how the price was trading on this date every 4 years. As you know BTC is trading roughly within 4 year Cycles that keep a high degree of symmetry and tend to repeat a lot of dynamics each time.
Right now, towards the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the Mean MM (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line). It has already started rising off the Mean MM. Based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, it is no surprise then that the price was within the exact same range in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012. The degree of symmetry is remarkable and is yet again showcased by this indicator.
We can also see that by this time every 4 years, the price had already started rising off the Mean MM, just as it is doing now. With the green Rectangles we display the date range between these 4-year intervals and the peak of the Bull Cycle. For October 2012 it took 58 weeks (406 days) until it topped, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days) while October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So time-wise the Cycle tends to peak roughly the same period.
As a result, if we take the minimum scenario of 55 weeks, we can expect the Cycle to top by mid November 2025. As far as targets are concerned, the first two Cycles hit (and broke) the 3 SD above (red trend-line), while the last one the 2 SD above (orange trend-line). Again assuming a 'worst case scenario' hitting 'just' the 2 SD trend-line, we can set a Target Range of 190k - 250k, depending on whether the price hits it halfway through the 55 week range or towards its end. Nevertheless, an exciting rally appears to be starting for Bitcoin.
So what do you think? Is this October MMB fractal about to break to a parabolic rally? And if so, will it hit the orange trend-line? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC: Impulse Wave 1 Complete, Awaiting Wave 3 SurgeIt appears that Impulse Wave 1 (green 1) has completed, with the necessary expanded ABC correction in place for Wave 2. Currently, BTC looks like it’s in Wave A of 5 of C. According to the Hurst cycles at the bottom, we should expect this corrective phase to last a few more days, up until the dotted blue line.
If all goes well, this will lead us into Wave 3, where we can anticipate strong upward momentum and potentially ferocious lunges to the upside. This will be Wave 3 of 3, meaning we should see a substantial bullish move.
The Hurst cycles suggest that Wave 3 could continue until around the 7th of November, making it interesting to consider how the U.S. election results on the 5th may influence this move. In any case, keep an eye on BTC for potential breakouts. Remember that corrections are healthy—and stay tuned for more updates!
Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish.
I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions.
Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD:
Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness.
Conclusion
In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin.
Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome!
1D:
Hourly Timeframes:
If you found this analysis useful, please boost and comment! Your support helps us all grow!
What is the best Proxy to BTC during a bull run....As Bitcoin continues goes mainstream, from Bitcoin ETFs, to El Salvador, the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, steadily adding to its Bitcoin reserves every day since March 16 2024.... The question remains, what are some of the best Proxies to Bitcoin...
This chart shows a few stocks trading as proxies to Bitcoin.
BTC Greed Index Drops to 70: Correction Begins, Eyeing 64K ?GM crypto bro's! This morning, the fear and greed index slightly dropped to 70, down from 73, and Stoch RSI is signaling a potential decline, exiting the overbought area.
Finally, BTC is experiencing a significant correction, dropping from 69K to 67K. The next potential correction target is in the 66K range, with a possibility of visiting our 64K range. Get your bullets ready to buy the dip, and as always, keep in mind that the market is dynamic—don’t FOMO, manage your risk.
This is Akki, signing off—one chart, one love. Have a nice day and stay SAFU.
The importance of explanation of the basis
(Title) The important thing in chart analysis is the explanation of the basis.
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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You need to read the explanation below to understand the points, sections, and volatility periods that I'm talking about.
However, for those who don't need that, I'll briefly explain it first.
Support section
1st: 65920.71-67414.39
2nd: 61099.25-62540.0
Resistance section
68955.88-72078.1
The next volatility period is around November 7th, so the point to watch is which section of the section I mentioned above it is located in after passing this volatility period.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend after approaching the highest point (100).
The StochRSI indicator used in this chart is an indicator created by changing the formula of the general StochRSI indicator, so there may be a slight difference from the StochRSI indicator you are actually using.
The setting values of the StochRSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
In any case, since the StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend, it seems likely to lead to an additional decline.
However, if the StochRSI indicator has not fallen from the overbought zone, there is a possibility of a rebound, so it is necessary to check the support and resistance points formed at the current price position.
The current price seems to be located near the Mid (50) indicator and the HA-HIgh indicator is about to be newly created.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator is created at the 67414.39 point, the support around that point is an important issue.
Since the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is formed at the 65920.71 point, we can see that the important section is around 65920.71-67414.39.
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If the HA-HIgh indicator of the 1D chart is newly created, the HA-High of the 1D chart > HA-High of the 1W chart > HA-High of the 1M chart, so the regular array of the M-Signal indicator, which is a trend perspective, is expected to create a regular array from the post-trading perspective as well.
If this regular array state is created, it is more likely to create a new upward wave, so it is more advantageous to look at the market from a long (LONG) perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that the important point of observation will be where support is received at this initialization of the StochRSI indicator.
The initialization of the StochRSI indicator means moving from the overbought section -> oversold section, oversold section -> overbought section.
When this initialization process is performed,
- When falling from the overbought section,
- When located in the middle point,
- When rising from the oversold section,
Volatility is likely to occur when passing through the three areas above.
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Considering the importance of support and resistance points, the movement of the StochRSI indicator, and the M-Signal indicator, it is expected that the upward trend will continue if the price is maintained above 62540.0.
If possible, we should check if it can be supported and rise near 65920.71-67414.39.
If the BW (100) indicator on the 1D chart is not regenerated, it is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin only when it rises above 72078.1.
Therefore, from the current price position, it is expected that how it will break through the 68955.88-72078.1 range will have a major impact on the future trend.
The next volatility period is around November 7.
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(1W chart)
If you look at the 1W chart, you can see a clearer movement than the 1D chart.
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I think trading is classifying the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts according to importance and creating a trading strategy accordingly.
This is what I said in the previous idea about why support and resistance points are important.
In order to classify the importance, you need to look at how densely the candles are arranged.
In other words, you need to look at how many sideways sections are created.
You can also use the Renko chart for this.
If you share and use this chart, the HA-High, HA-Low, BW (100), and BW (0) indicators form the most important support and resistance points when trading.
And the next important indicators are the Mid (50) and OBV 0 indicators.
To check this, draw the indicators formed on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, and they will immediately act as support and resistance points.
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Although the coin market is a market that follows trends, you cannot know everything from the trend.
In other words, you need support and resistance points and the StochRSI indicator to check volatility.
If you don't check this, I don't think it's easy to check volatility.
I explained how to check trend lines and volatility periods with the previous idea.
I'll take the time to explain it again next time.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to touch in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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There's a storm on my chartHi everyone,
I see two possibilities.
Blue or Brown ? (we have to see!)
Technical Section:
The Blue Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 5th wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 5 = 2.618 x length of Wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 x length of Wave 1
Target = 5790
The Brown Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 3rd wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 3 = 4.236 x length of Wave 1
Target = 6440
BTCUSD hit the 1hour MA200. New rally if it holds.Bitcoin / BTCUSD hit the 1hour MA200 on today's strong correction.
So far it is holding and is on the 5th candle in a row of support.
As long as it holds, it is a bullish signal and can give a rally similar to the last 1hour MA200 hold (October 13th) or the one before (October 10th).
The 1hour RSI also got oversold and is rebounding. It crossed above its MA, a bullish signal.
Buy and target 71000 (+6.70% at least).
Previous chart:
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BTCUSD: Broke above the 7 month pattern and turned bullish on 1WBitcoin just turned bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 56.534, MACD = 2298.400, ADX = 20.606) as it crossed over the top (LH) of the 7 month Bearish Megaphone. This is a major bullish breakout and the only one remaining is the R1 level (70,000). This is practically the reason of today's pullback because the price is being rejected just under the R1 level. Still, there is no cause for concern as since Sep 20th, Bitcoin has crossed and sustained trading above its MA trendlind, a sign of a trend reversal.
Furthermore, the Bullish Megaphone that started on the November 2022 bottom just formed a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD and with the support of the 1W MA50 is now looking to establish the new bullish wave. If similar rallies like the previous waves take place, then Bitcoin can target 100k at least (TP = 100,000), even as early as January 2025.
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BTC Analysis: Waiting on the Next Move – $67,226 Bounce or Back Alright fam, here’s the scoop – BTC could pop up to $67,226 from here, but if not, we might dip back to $66K for a quick reset before heading higher. If things get dicey, we could slip to GETTEX:64K – and worst case, it drops even lower.
If you like the update, drop a comment or follow so I can keep bringing you more analysis on the markets you love!
Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): dip was bought, but no green light yetFollowing up on our previous update, the market found support at the anticipated level, resulting in a double dip, and subsequently rebounded.
From a technical perspective, we remain within the confines of the long-term bullish flag pattern.
A break above the 70k level would confirm the end of this pattern and potentially trigger a new leg up.
Meanwhile, near-term support is expected to be found around the 66k level, IF we get there.
To be continued..
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-21: Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests an opening price Gap is likely. Given the markets are trading slightly lower this morning, this Gap potential plays very well with my Roadmap trading outline from last week. I highlighted the need to sell out of positions last Friday and look to buy into the Gap Potential pattern today.
If the markets rally off this opening gap pattern, we could see a nice move in the SPY up to 587-588+.
Gold and Silver are rallying again. But be aware today is a TOP pattern for Gold/Silver. That means both Gold & Silver will attempt to identify resistance and move away (lower) from that resistance level.
Bitcoin looks to have moved into the Ultimate Peak level on an intermediate-term Excess Phase Peak pattern. Additionally, the deeper low sets up a longer-term Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests Bitcoin has entered the Consolidation Phase (#3).
Because of this, I suspect Bitcoin will fall below the FWB:67K level and potentially move into broad consolidation for a minimum of at least 5-6 weeks.
These Consolidation phases in longer-term Excess Phase Peak patterns can be brutal for traders. The volatility of these consolidation phases can present real challenges and last about 50% of the time it took to Flag. Given this information, we may see many weeks of consolidation within a range in Bitcoin - possibly lasting into December 2024.
This will be a tough week for traders. Try to stay aware of the bigger picture and play the rotation headed into next week.
Get some.
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BTC/USD Approaches Critical Resistance: Breakout or Pullback?Based on the BTC/USD chart, the price is approaching a significant resistance zone near the ATH (All-Time High) at 73,814. A breakout above this level could lead to a strong upward movement, with potential targets at 76,377 and higher, possibly reaching new ATH levels around 90,000 and 100,000 USD per Bitcoin.
However, if the price faces resistance at this zone, a pullback could occur towards the first support area around 64,905 (pivot line). Should the decline continue, the next support levels are at 62,407 and 59,944, with a stronger correction likely if these levels are breached.
Key Levels:
Resistance Area: 73,814 (ATH), 76,377
Support Areas: 64,905, 62,407, 59,944
Potential Demand Zone: 52,791
Directional Outlook:
Bullish: A breakout above 73,814 could signal a bullish rally toward 90,000 and 100,000.
Bearish: A failure to break through the resistance at 73,814 may result in a pullback toward the support levels, with 64,905 being the first target.
In summary, the current trend is bullish as long as BTC/USD remains above the pivot zone, with strong resistance ahead. A breakout will be key for further upward momentum.
previous idea:
Bitcoin Symmetrical Triangle Retest: A Buying Opportunity BeforeBitcoin appears to be very bullish, but in the short term, we could see a retest of the symmetrical triangle! This is a standard technical analysis. First, you want to observe a breakout of a pattern, followed by a retest, which usually gives us a wonderful opportunity to jump into a trade.
Everything is on the chart
DYDX/USDT NEXT BIG MOVEBased on my thorough analysis of the price action for CRYPTOCAP:DYDX , I anticipate a notable upward movement toward the $1.483 level. However, prior to this rally, I expect a brief retest of the $1.18 level, which may act as a key support area. Following this period of consolidation, I project that the price will continue its ascent, ultimately reaching my first target price (TP) of $1.483.
Upon reaching the $1.48 mark, I intend to scale out 50% of my position to secure profits while retaining exposure for additional gains. My longer-term target is set at $2.20, a level I find attainable given the current market dynamics and prevailing trends. This strategy is designed to enable me to capitalize on the immediate upward movement while positioning myself for further appreciation in the value of $DYDX.