Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bearish Continuation: Potential Drop AheadThis Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price chart on the 1-hour time
Observations:
1. Downtrend Channel:
The price has been moving downward within a descending channel (marked in blue).
There is consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish structure.
2. Breakout & Retest:
The price broke below the descending channel but attempted a small recovery.
Currently, it is testing the previous support, which could act as resistance.
3. Bearish Projection:
A red downward arrow suggests a possible rejection from this resistance level.
The drawn path indicates a potential further decline, possibly targeting the $88,000–$90,000 range.
4. Market Sentiment:
A 2.61% decline suggests strong bearish momentum.
Economic or external events (represented by icons) may influence the next move.
Conclusion:
If price fails to break back into the channel and faces rejection, a further drop is expected.
A confirmed breakdown could see BTC testing lower support levels around $92,000 or lower.
1-BTCUSD
MOST Bullish Crypto Now? MoneroThis may come as a surprise considering how little attention it is paid but according to my most time tested analytic; the Daily Ichimoku Cloud + Chikou Confirmation, KRAKEN:XMRUSD is showing more bullish than the top cryptocurrencies.
I have written for years about this study of when price versus the Ichimoku cloud is in line with Chikou (purple line, AKA Lagging Span) versus cloud. I will include a few links below to past Tradingview ideas.
Let's look at some of the major cryptocurrencies that most pay attention to for comparison:
INDEX:BTCUSD
Bitcoin is at a precarious place. The bull trend has weakened and moved through the Ichimoku cloud. Price has breached it to the downside but that does not make it bearish yet. The final step would be Chikou to cross. At this point downward movement and/or time passing will make this true and the trend will flip bearish. Bitcoin's Ichimoku Daily analysis is what I have written most about. If followed, I have demonstrated that applying this simple strategy out performs pure HODL by a factor of 7x.
KRAKEN:SOLUSD
Solana is to me the next most interesting cryptocurrency at present because its use case is the most prevalent: meme coins. Solana just does them better and most of the popular meme coins that end up on the news go through this chain. SOLUSD is sitting in purely neutral territory like Bitcoin.
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
Ethereum is in objectively the worst shape. It has already flipped confirmed bearish.
I think people sleep on Monero because it is not considered a "get rich quick" cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency market has devolved into a space for fraud and fast wealth. Monero, being privacy focused, is the leading cryptocurrency that actually facilitates the original use case of cryptocurrency which is... a currency. It has largely acted like a stablecoin the past 3 years while slowly appreciating. Don't ignore it... but also please don't pump it. I don't want the volatility.
Trade wisely.
Things turned pretty disturbing!In the last 24 hours, both bulls and bears got wrecked — the market spared no one. To be honest, none of us expected this to happen, but it did. I’m no exception, as my portfolios are in the red too.
The difference lies in how you made your moves. If you remember my post from December 14th, 2024, I mentioned that I had mostly moved my funds to USDT and was gradually selling my BTC. I received a lot of hate comments for this, but I’m glad I trusted my instincts and stuck to it. Of course, my positions are in the red, but with most of my funds in USDT, I feel confident now.
The situation may not be the same for everyone, but hear me out.
BTC is forming a temporary support trendline around $96k. If this support holds, a rebound is likely. However, a close below this level on a 2-day time frame wouldn't be good. We can see fear consuming the market, but once it fully plays out, the rally will begin.
For now, patience is key. Opportunities will come, so wait for them.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Feb 4, 2025: Rally PatternToday's rally pattern will attempt to provide some relief related to the recent breakdown in the SPY. Overnight, the ES/NQ rallied to FILL THE GAP. So, today, I believe the SPY will attempt to rally back above 600-601, then stall out and consolidate.
Today may be a "GO GOLFING" day in the markets.
I would not advise anyone to get Uber-Long in the markets right now. My research suggests the markets will roll downward near the end of this week - seeking the DEEP-V bottom/base I've predicted near 2-10~2-13.
Gold and Silver should attempt another rally phase over the next 3 to 4 days. I expect metals to continue to rally into this expansion phase, and I'm initially targeting $3200 for gold.
Bitcoin is trapped in a big Excess Phase Peak pattern that I believe will resolve into a breakdown price trend.
The Deep-V and other breakdown patterns, which my cycle research says are pending, will drive Bitcoin downward, possibly targeting the $72k levels again.
Today may be a relatively FLAT type of Rally day. So, play cautiously.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$BTC - Value AreaThis bounce might just be shorts covering and/or hedges – a kind of mechanical reaction following a liquidation event.
If we are going to consolidate within the current value area (96.5k-104k), I wouldn't be surprised if we get an upthrust retesting 103.8k-104k range before rotating back to take out the swing low.
A potential level for shorting, but I'm only interested in shorting on signs of weakness or a strong rejection at that level.
Possible targets:
94k - 93.5k
90k- 88.5k
84k-80k
February 3 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq indicators will be announced at 12 o'clock soon.
The Nasdaq variable and the Bitcoin weekly chart MACD dead cross are in progress, so the analysis difficulty is high.
I had a hard time finding the entry point and the stop loss price.
It will be hard, but let's hold on this week.
Also, if it falls from the current position,
Nasdaq will have a vertical decline condition, so you have to be careful.
In the case of Tether Dominance, there is no resistance line yet,
so if it doesn't crash all at once, it can be shaken by a short-term wave.
I created today's strategy focusing on this part.
* When the blue finger moves,
It is a two-way neutral
Short->Long switching or long position waiting strategy.
1. 96,413 dollars short position entry section / when pink resistance line is broken
or when section 1 is touched, stop loss price
2. 95,120 dollars long position switching / when purple support line is broken
or when section 2 is touched, stop loss price
3. 99,612 dollars short position switching / when red resistance line is broken
or when Good section is touched, stop loss price
96.4K short position at the top from the current position
If the entry point is not touched
Long waiting at section 2 below / stop loss price when green support line is broken.
Section 1 at the top is a sideways market
It is the second short position entry section of today.
The final long position target and
short position switching section that I expect
is the center line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band chart.
It is expected to be around the top section,
and if it rebounds to this section,
the weekly chart MACD dead cross will be released,
so you can press it again.
There are two conditions for the dead cross to be imprinted:
it is pushed to 86.5K at the bottom (major support line)
or it is imprinted naturally while moving sideways.
It won't be easy to break through all the resistance lines at once with a vertical rise
and touch the Bollinger band resistance line, right?
Of course, it is possible if the Nasdaq goes crazy while soaring.
This week, it can continue to shake while moving sideways,
and it doesn't look easy to see an upward trend,
so short-term trading seems advantageous.
I marked 89,853.5 dollars below the bottom,
and since it is a section where a newly created mid-term upward trend is maintained,
it seems safe to just hold this spot this week.
Above all, the Nasdaq movement is the most important,
so check it in real time.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use only.
I hope that you operate safely with the principle of trading and cut-off price.
Thank you for reading.
BTC/USD Short-Term Rebound: Testing Key Resistance AheadThis BTC/USD chart (2-hour timeframe) shows a descending triangle pattern with a strong resistance trendline.
Key Observations:
1. Price Rejection & Support:
- BTC recently bounced from a support level around 93,747 and surged back above 97,952.
- This suggests a potential short-term recovery.
2. Potential Upside Target:
- The chart highlights a **resistance zone around 102,500–104,049, which aligns with the descending trendline.
- A move toward this level is likely if the current momentum continues.
3. Breakout or Rejection?
- If BTC breaks 104,049 with strong volume, it could challenge 108,411.
- Failure to break resistance could lead to another drop toward 93,747 or lower.
Strategy Consideration
- Short-term traders: Watch for a retest of 102,500–104,049 before deciding on a breakout trade or shorting the rejection.
- Long-term perspective: If BTC holds above 93,747, bullish momentum might strengthen.
Why USDCHF is in Retesting Phase? and Expected Trend ReversalUSDCHF is currently trading at 0.91000, with a target price of 0.89900, indicating a short-term bearish movement. The expected price drop of 100+ pips suggests a potential short-selling opportunity. The pair is in a retesting phase, meaning it is re-evaluating a previously broken trendline. This retest occurs after a downtrend, confirming bearish momentum. However, after this small decline, a strong bullish wave is anticipated. The price is expected to recover and move upward toward the 0.93000 level. This suggests a trend reversal after the retracement phase. Traders may consider shorting until 0.89900, then looking for bullish confirmation. Risk management is crucial due to potential market volatility. Analyzing support, resistance, and market sentiment can help refine entry and exit points.
BTC next moves for 2025? Will 2021 repeat itself? Let's see :) History repeats itself, but will 2021 cycle repeat itself?
If we break 90K next level around 70, but there are many longs down the line, liquidation and long squeez is likely leading us to 60 if not 50 ranges, a wick is expected then a retest to 90K levels to get rejection before final breakout to the all time trend prices likely around 115-120K.
The herd will get excited by then, expecting a price to go above 120K, but I don't see this happening. And small dream secret, Nakamoto to be revealed later this year leading to significant crypto crash.
I know many may laugh, but let's see how this go! It makes sense from technical POV (hahaha, except my dream which likely to happen - since I don't dream too often) - keep an eye on RSI to get back in 40s before refill.
This idea is valid only and only if BTC breaks 90K and closes both daily and weekly below it with some a high volume!
Desclaimer:
The ideas and strategies presented here are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this post is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
Called move after move for Bitcoin, what happens next?
If you been lucky enough to work out my analysis and pull the trigger on the trade setups that played out over and over again, I commend you for your knowledge of how to read an analysis and then use it to make an informed decision.
If you caught the last analysis I mentioned about a bear trap spike below the blue line and as you can see it played out. You can see I have removed the green trendline on left chart as it is now done with and the green trendline on the right hand side chart is basically invalidated now.
We see on the left chart the orange trendline is respected with the candle closing above it. The white major trendline also held as major support. You can see the other trendlines still being used, especially on 4 hour timeframe.
So, what now?
We need to watch for the right hand side RSI to breakdown under the red trendline for BTC to get to 108k.
On the left chart the RSI needs to break back above trendline. In regards to the price action, we can see a massive buy up in the crash candle that was just made. Price could move up to 108k from here now there are trapped short traders below. This would put the right USDT.D chart at the blue trendline and as per previous analysis we know what happens if that then breaks below this line.
On the bearish side, if price loses the light green vwap line then expect another retest of the white trendline.
Smash the like button and good luck!
$BTC and the exit pump to new highs before new lows?Ever since November/December, BTC has largely moved sideways in a wide range from FWB:88K -$109k.
Now that we've bounced off of $91k again this morning, I think that sets BTC up for a big bull trap. I think that we're likely to go to new highs either this week or before 2/21 up to the top resistances (although we don't necessarily have to make it up there), and then everyone will buy the new highs before we go to new lows.
This is a classic distribution top here and I think we'll see new lows by March. We can go as low as the bottom supports down $65-66k and the chart can remain bullish on the high timeframes.
I'm fully out of crypto and have only been speculating directionally by buying calls/puts on COIN (which I currently have calls on). This market has been extremely hard for most investors as they've been speculating in alts and most alts have continued to bleed out while BTC has ranged. I think alts will see new lows (yes, today's move was not the bottom, and the bull market will only start once most people have given up on crypto).
I'm bullish long-term, but still bearish in the near term and plan to buy back my position sometime in March once the distribution has played out to the downside.
Good luck from here on out.
Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum Holding Strong
Bitcoin has reached the $94,500 entry point outlined in the previous idea and showed a strong bullish reaction. This confirms the level as an area of interest. However, there is strong potential for price to revisit $94,500 once more, presenting a great buying opportunity for the next leg up.
As long as market conditions align, we can look for confirmations to target $126,500. Patience remains key, but the setup is developing well.
Will Bitcoin offer another perfect entry before continuing its bullish breakout?
🔗 Check the original idea:
BTC/USDT 1H: Bullish Momentum Unleashed – $105K Next?BTC/USDT 1H Chart Analysis
🚀 Follow me on TradingView if you respect our charts! 📈Daily updates!
Current Market Structure:
Price at $102,034 showing bullish momentum after breaking premium zone.
RSI at 68.53, confirming strong momentum but not overbought yet.
Volume confirmation on breakout above previous resistance.
Smart Money Concepts:
Market Makers completed accumulation at the $92-94k zone.
Premium Zone established around $105-106k.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) needs filling at $103.8k.
Key Levels:
Entry Zone: Current price ($102k) or pullback to $101.2k.
Targets:
T1: $103.8k (FVG Fill).
T2: $105.2k (Premium Zone).
Stop Loss: Below $99.8k (recent swing low).
Risk Score:
7/10 (Favorable R:R but watch for premium zone rejection).
Market Maker Intent:
Accumulation phase complete, now in markup/distribution phase.
Expect ranging between $101-105k before the next major move.
No significant divergences present, structure suggests continued upside after FVG fill.
Recommendation:
Long positions favorable within $101.2k-$102k range.
Monitor price action around $103.8k resistance for rejection signs.
Avoid chasing, best entries on pullbacks.
Confidence Level:
8/10 for bullish continuation.
🚀 Follow me on TradingView if you respect our charts! 📈Daily updates!
The key is whether it can rise above 101947.24-103706.66
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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I had a hard time on Monday morning due to a broken PC in the rapidly changing coin market.
I'm sorry that I couldn't update you on time because of this.
However, if you had seen what I said, I think you would have responded to some extent, but I hope there was no major damage.
-
When trading spot, you should always keep about 20% of your total investment in cash.
That way, you can seize opportunities in rapidly changing situations like this.
If you used spare funds, you must sell them to secure spare funds again.
Even if you have a loss during spot trading, if you have cash, you can respond to some extent.
If not, you should sell some of them to secure cash.
The cash secured in this way should be used to buy back when the price drops and increase the number of coins you have.
The money you sell should not be used to purchase other coins (tokens).
You should think about how to increase the number of coins (tokens) you have by taking advantage of spot trading.
However, if you are scalping or day trading, you can immediately make cash profits.
---------------------------------------------
(DXY 1D chart)
The first Monday of February seems to have been very volatile due to the sudden surge in DXY.
-
The flow of funds seems to be maintaining an upward trend.
The gap rise of USDT and USDC is seen as evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.
-
BTC dominance touched the 55.01-62.47 range and fell.
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, altcoins are likely to show a large decline.
Therefore, caution is required when trading altcoins.
-
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to already be in a downtrend.
If USDT dominance falls, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
If USDT dominance falls, it is expected to fall to around 2.84 at the most.
-
If BTC dominance rises and USDT dominance falls, there is a possibility that a market will be formed in which only BTC rises.
Therefore, it is possible that altcoins will gradually move sideways or show a downward trend as they rise along with the rise of BTC.
-----------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It touched below 92792.05 and rose to around 101947.24.
At this time, it seems to have touched the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
Currently, the gap between the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is large, so it seems likely that this gap will narrow.
Therefore, it seems likely that it will move sideways within the box section of the HA-High indicator.
However, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above the 101947.24-103706.66 range.
If not, there is a possibility of sideways movement between the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
If the price is maintained above the 101947.24-103706.66 range, I think it is highly likely that an upward movement will begin to rise near the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (1169040.43).
-
The next volatility period is expected to start around February 9.
Therefore, we need to look at which range among the ranges marked with circles on the chart is supported.
Due to this decline, the box range of the HA-High indicator has expanded to the 91231.0-109588.0 range.
Therefore, I think that the box section mentioned above is the 91231.0-109588.0 section and I should create or modify my trading strategy.
-
It's a shame that I can't see the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart this time.
I think that the fatigue from the rise is high because the rising wave that has continued until now has not ended yet.
Therefore, since there is a possibility that the fluctuation range due to volatility will be large, caution is required when trading.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Strategy 2025. Introducing Palantir, BTC Killer Of The Year 2024It's gone 3 months or so since Palantir stock has joined on Friday, September 20 Stock Top Club, also known as S&P 500 stock index SP:SPX .
Palantir was one of the strongest contenders for inclusion in the broad market S&P500 Index.
This inclusion, as well as Dell (DELL), came after tech companies Super Micro (SMCI) and Crowdstrike (CRWD) also joined the index earlier in this year 2024.
Since that, Palantir stock became the best (i.e. #1) S&P500 index performer this year, with current +375% YTD return in 2024, being highlighted at 80.55 USD per share - the new all the history peak reached last Friday, December, 19 at regular session close.
What is most important also, even recent Federal Reserve (The US Central Bank) hawkish projections on monetary policy in 2025 were not able to stop the only game in the city, or even make a pause on Palantir leadership.
Since Palantir stock is rallying 7th month in a row, the stalkers remain decently far away, swallowing the galactic dust of Palantir shares.
Judge for yourself.
One of the nearest pursuer, Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA (# 4 out of all S&P500 index performers in 2024) is nearly to finish the year of 2024 with +170% return, i.e. lagging against Palantir behind twice.
The quite similar things happen with the most popular and heavy c-coin, also known as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD that is currently +130% YTD return in 2024.
What is most important also, Palantir stock outperforms both - S&P500 index, Nvidia Corp. and Bitcoin 7th straight month in a row.
In human words that means, Palantir stock monthly returns (every single month from May to December 2024) were better against each of mentioned above assets.
What is Behind this?
On November 4, 2024 Palantir Technologies has announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024.
“We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down. This is a U.S.-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners,” said Alexander C. Karp, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Palantir Technologies Inc.
Q3 2024 Highlights
• U.S. revenue grew 44% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to $499 million
• U.S. commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter to $179 million
• U.S. government revenue grew 40% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $320 million
• Revenue grew 30% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to $726 million
• Closed 104 deals over $1 million
• Customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter
• GAAP net income of $144 million, representing a 20% margin
• GAAP income from operations of $113 million, representing a 16% margin
• Adjusted income from operations of $276 million, representing a 38% margin
• Rule of 40 score of 68%
• GAAP earnings per share (“EPS”) grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06
• Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10
• Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6 billion
• Cash from operations of $420 million, representing a 58% margin and $995 million on a trailing twelve month basis
• Adjusted free cash flow of $435 million, representing a 60% margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve month basis.
Is the stock growth fundamentally deserved? Definitely, "Yes".
Palantir stock Alpha
What is Alpha?
Alpha (a) is a term used in investing to describe an investment's ability to beat (outperform) the market, or its “edge.” Alpha is thus also often referred to as excess return or the abnormal rate of return in relation to a benchmark, or any other asset (even against simple sitting in a cash) when adjusted for risk.
The main graph represents a comparison across Bitcoin and Palantir stocks. Since Palantir outperforms BTC twice over the past 12 months (watch lower "percent bar chart" subgraph), so why isn't to continue the play, by staying in a long with Palantir, and kill "the new oranges" respectively.