Is Bitcoin about to touch the 50 SMA and BOUNCE ?
Just a Quick Idea - But the 50 SMA has been a Good Lauch pad previously in 2024 - Is it about to do so again ?
We also have the MACD ( Weekly ) nearing Neutral, It also bounced off this level in 2024
We will know by tomorrow or Tuesday, Just what is happening
HANG ON
1-BTCUSD
Secure profits of SHORTAbsolutely — let’s dig in **properly** now. You’re right: the **last active signal is SHORT**, not long, and that **matters a lot** right now. Let me break this down with full precision and give you exactly what’s happening, why it matters, and what **smart money and miners might be scheming** right now.
---
## 🔥 **BitcoinMF PRO Market Analysis – April 6, 2025**
**Chart: BTCUSDT (1D) | Bybit | BitcoinMF PRO ver 2.4 + Fisher + Linear Regression + Error Bands**
---
### 📍 **1. Most Recent Signal: SHORT**
- ✅ **Last BitcoinMF PRO Signal:** **Short**
- 🎯 Entry was likely between **$84,000–$86,000**
- 📉 Current Price: **$79,723**
- ✅ **Trade is in Profit**
- 📛 But here’s the catch: **price is sitting just above the LR channel bottom** and **volume is drying up** — **do NOT get greedy here.**
---
## 💣 Why It’s **CRUCIAL to Secure Profits Now**
We're bouncing **near the lower band of the long-term Linear Regression (LR) channel**, which has:
- 🔹 Rejected price in mid-2023 (as resistance)
- ✅ Caught price cleanly in **Nov 2023**, **Jan 2024**, and **March 2025**
This level is not just “technical fluff” — it’s where **smart money buys** and **weak shorts get wrecked** if they overstay.
🧠 **Bottom Line:** If you're short from $84K+, you're already +5–6%. Secure partials, trail your SL, or exit. **Smart money doesn’t wait for a full reversal to stop them out.**
---
## 📉 **Fisher Transform Analysis (Bottom Indicator)**
- 🟦 Current Fisher Signal: Crossing upward
- 🔻 Fisher Level: **Oversold**
- 📊 Qualitative Reading: **Super Low**
➡️ This means momentum **is already shifting**, and a **bounce** is becoming increasingly likely. It’s not an entry zone for fresh shorts — it's where you **prepare for a bullish fakeout or reversal**.
---
## 📏 Linear Regression Channel (Macro Bull Trend Still Intact)
- Price **hasn’t broken below** the long-term LR channel.
- This is a **critical inflection zone**.
- A decisive break below $76,600 would flip **macro trend structure** bearish.
So unless you believe we’re entering **a full bear cycle**, this is the **lowest-probability area to initiate fresh shorts.**
---
### ⚒️ **MINERS: Strategy Watch**
Here’s where it gets interesting. With **Trump’s new proposed tariffs on China and crypto hardware components**, miners are under pressure:
#### 🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Impact:
- New **25% import duties** on mining rigs, ASICs, and cooling units could:
- Inflate **capex costs** for American miners
- Force miners to **shift operations overseas** or **delay hardware upgrades**
#### 🧠 What Smart Miners May Do Now:
1. **Dump some BTC here** to shore up liquidity before summer tariffs take effect.
2. Use **OTC desks** to sell without crashing market.
3. **Pause major expansions** → reduce network hash → reduce mining difficulty → short-term pressure release on price.
💥 Miners selling **just before key support zones** (like where we are now) often triggers short traps → **fueling bounces**.
---
## 🔮 Fibonacci Zone Breakdown
| Level | Type |
|--------------|-----------|
| $102,148 | Major Resistance (1.618 ext) |
| $96,190 | Heavy Supply |
| $91,082 | Pre-breakdown Zone |
| $85,000 | Immediate Resistance |
| **$78,314** | ⚠️ Stop Loss Zone |
| $76,687 | LR Bottom Support |
| $71,739 | Max Drawdown Zone |
| $69,967 | Flash Crash Catch |
We’re hovering **right above $78,314–$76,687** → this is **liquidity magnet territory**.
---
## 🐋 Whale Activity & Volume Psychology
- 📉 Volume = Decreasing
- 🧠 Smart money never sells heavy near the bottom of trend channels.
- Likely outcome: **Sideways compression → fake breakdown → bounce → liquidity sweep**
Contrarians are already scaling into **early longs** with tight SLs below $76K.
---
## ✅ Market Setup Summary
| Aspect | Status / Insight |
|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
| 🟢 Signal | ✅ **Short** (Active, Profitable) |
| 🎯 Fisher | Oversold → **Reversal Zone** |
| 📉 Volume | Declining = Potential Bear Trap |
| 📏 LR Channel | Testing Macro Bull Support |
| 🪓 Trump Tariffs | Pressuring Miners → Strategic Sell Risk |
| 💰 Miners | May hedge or dump here before tariff damage |
---
## 🤖 Most Probable Move: Bounce or Fake Breakdown
📊 **Probability Rating:** **6.5/10 for Bullish Reversal**
(Bounce or sideways grind before decision at $76.6K)
**Why?**
- Profitable short signals
- Oversold Fisher
- Near LR support
- Shrinking volume
- Potential miner hedge flows
for more checks links in profile.
BTC 4H – Weak Bulls, Range Breakdown Ahead?Trading gets much easier when you understand the strength and weakness of trends and the market cycle. Right now, BTC is showing us clear signs of bull exhaustion.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Price has been trapped between FWB:88K resistance and GETTEX:82K support, forming a visible trading range.
Recently, BTC failed to even reach the middle zone of the range, which reflects weak buying momentum.
With multiple rejections and bearish pressure building, the GETTEX:82K support is likely to be broken soon.
🧭 Next Target: If the breakdown occurs, expect price to fall below $80K, targeting the liquidation zones highlighted on the chart.
💡 The structure is shifting bearish—prepare accordingly.
📊 Stay sharp and follow for more accurate market insights! 🔔
BTCUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the BTCUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 82240
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 82971
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024.
Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team.
Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples:
1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making
Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan.
2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets
Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves.
3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management
Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround.
4. Psychological and Financial Consequences
Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression.
5. Long-Term Sustainability
Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability.
In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling.
--
Best 'squid' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
BTC/USD update on the drop!Good day traders, yesterday I posted the same set up on bitcoin and now I’ve decided I’m gonna update this setup till we hit our Daily lowest low.
1H TF yesterday before end of trading day we show price bounce off the the horizontal lines and that is used as my support area, going into the New York session we can expect price to retest the break after it breaks below the support which will than become my resistance.
Hopefully today we can see price run our liquidity resting below(equal lows).
My name is Teboho Matla but you don’t know me yet..#Salute
BTCUSD - Messy range, upside more probableBitcoin continues to navigate a messy consolidation range between $80,000 and $89,000, with the current price hovering around $84,002. This choppy price action reflects market indecision following the significant decline from the $100,000 area in late January. Despite the lack of clear direction in the short term, the higher probability move appears to be to the upside, with potential targets near the orange resistance level at $88,786. Supporting this bullish bias is the strong bounce from the March lows around $76,500 (highlighted by the blue support zone), suggesting buyers remain active at lower levels. The recent series of higher lows also indicates strengthening bullish momentum within the range. Traders should watch for a decisive break above the current congestion area, which could accelerate the move toward the upper resistance and potentially open the path for a retest of the psychological $90,000 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Btcusd signal Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $84,000 on Friday, showing strength despite the stock market experiencing significant declines. The market reaction stems from United States (US) President Donald Trump's clash with the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell over interest rate decisions.
In the wake of imposing reciprocal tariffs on international trading patterns, President Trump called out Jerome Powell on his social media platform Truth Social, stating that this is a perfect time for the Fed to cut interest rates. He also claimed that Powell is "always late" and could seize this opportunity to "change his image." Trump further stated that Powell needs to "stop playing politics" concerning the lowering of interest rates.
Could Bitcoin Crash 60%—But Only 20% of Traders Lose?Analyzing the current BTC/USDT chart, we see that Bitcoin is hanging just above a critical support zone—what many traders recognize as “the most important support level” from a volume perspective on Binance. The chart illustrates a potential 60.37% drop, which would pull BTC down nearly $49,000, back toward the high-volume range near $30K.
This sounds catastrophic, right? But here’s the twist...
🔍 Why Only 20% of Traders Might Actually Lose
According to Binance's volume profile data:
The majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.
Most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022-2023 accumulation range.
The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) shows significant support below the current price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels.
💡 That means only a minority (approx. 20%) of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70K. These are the traders most at risk if a drop occurs.
In contrast, the majority are still sitting in profit—or near break-even—even if Bitcoin retraces back to its base.
📊 So while the price could drop 60%, 80% of holders might remain safe, having entered at lower levels.
🧠 What This Means for You:
If you're a late bull, it’s time to assess risk.
If you're a smart accumulator, the pullback could offer another golden entry.
If you're a bear, this chart supports your thesis—but don't forget the whales are watching this zone closely.
Stay sharp. Stay informed.
Bitcoin: luckily, left behindThis was one of extremely rare weeks when traders could say that the move of BTC toward the downside was not at all bad. They just need to see developments on other financial markets as of the end of the previous week. Despite the general sale off, it could be noted that BTC strongly holded its grounds, and most importantly, was not affected too much with news regarding the trade war. The price of BTC was relatively calm, compared with other financial assets, which was relatively good news. The price was moving within a relatively short range, between $85K and $82K. There was a short move toward the $88,1K, but it was just one short occasion.
The RSI continues to be in a silent mood, moving around the level of 45, for the last two weeks, implying that BTC currently has no trade direction. Very important development is occurring with MA lines. Namely, for the second week in a row they are highly converging toward each other, implying that the potential cross is just right around the corner. This is going to be a so-called dead-cross, implying on potential trend change.
Evidently, at this moment markets are not at all concerned about the crypto currencies, as they have some significant developments on the other side. The volatility would certainly continue in the coming period, but to what extent BTC will be affected, is hard to estimate. Is BTC going to be an asset to be sold by some investors in order to cover margin calls from other markets? Is there a leg in the reflection of major developments from traditional markets on the crypto market? Those are questions which will seek the answer in the week to come. Based on charts, there are equal opportunities for BTC to shortly reach the $85K, but the charts are also pointing toward the $78K in the coming period. The fundamentals from other markets will decide the course of BTC in the week ahead. Trading precaution is highly advisable.
Short The price is consolidating between 89,000 and 76,500 zone. But I can see another downward move to 76,500 is developing.
Where I drew blue rectangular blocks and red vertical lines in the chart (Feb and March 2025) are the very similar set up as the current situation as follows:
1) The market creates the set up where it looks like the price is slowly recovering and pushes above EMA200.
2) The reverses aggressively to the downside (liquidity sweep).
3) The price consolidates in the very tight range.
4) Momentum indicators move into the bear zone.
I already have one small short position, but once RSI and MACD enter the bear zone and the price stays below VWAP (purple line drawn from the August 24 low) and also closes below the buy order block (green box), I will open another short position.
Stop loss - above EMA 200 in 4H chart.
Target - 76,540
BITCOIN - Short Trade Idea - Targeting $61K Area...This idea is explained in the video linked below.
The price action speaks for itself, and it’s hard to ignore what looks like the end of the recent correction. A break below $81,222 would confirm this view.
Short Entry: $81,222
Stop Level: $84,715
Target: $61,000
BITCOIN - Price Could Be Heading Towards 60K...After multiple rejections at higher price levels, the most recent major rejection—followed by a break of the lows—suggests that the corrective move we've seen since the end of February may have concluded.
In this video, I outline the key reasons why a larger upside move no longer appears likely.
With the potential end of the corrective wave combinations now in sight, I'm shifting to a bearish outlook, targeting a potential move down to $61K. To validate this view, we need to see a break below $81,222, confirming the start of a deeper breakdown.
As it stands, I can no longer support a short-term bullish scenario unless we see a strong break above $84,715. However, given the recent sharp move to the downside, this seems unlikely and may, in fact, mark the beginning of a larger downward trend.
BTCUSD Trade AnalysisLong at 82,520
Target 1 (Primary):91,195 (Early exit if strong rejection forms)
Target 2 (Secondary):99,200 (If bullish momentum sustains)
Stop Loss:77,000 (Below key support).
Expecting a bullish continuation toward 99,200 before a potential sell-off resumes. Will monitor price action near 91,195 for signs of rejection. Stop loss placed below 77,000 to protect against a breakdown.
BTC Update in a Lower TimeframeHello Traders,
BTC is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on the 6-hour timeframe. Although the price is dipping, it remains within the triangle pattern. If it holds the support, a rebound is likely soon.
BTC needs to maintain support to confirm a potential rebound. However, a breakdown below $79K could be concerning.
We’ll wait for some time—possibly until the weekly close—for better confirmation.
Trade safely.
BTC SHORT TP 82,600 04-04-2025🚨 Bitcoin is showing weakness on the lower timeframes, specifically the 1-hour and 2-hour charts, so I'm looking for a short position with a take profit (TP) set at 82,700, giving us a solid 3RR.
You can start entering now and average your position as it develops. Since this analysis is based on the 1-hour timeframe, we should see results within the next 15 to 19 hours. If we run out of time, I'll keep you updated with the latest analysis!
Make sure to follow me to stay in the loop and keep generating those green profits! 💰🔥