93576.0-94742.35 : Uptrend conversion zone
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether the price can maintain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and rise above 97226.92.
If it is supported near 93576.0-94742.35, it is expected to turn into an uptrend.
If not, it is important whether it is supported near 89294.25.
The reason is that if it falls below 89294.25 again, it is highly likely to eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
This volatility period is March 3-5.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA.
Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240.
Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted.
At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day.
We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months.
• On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18%
• On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month
• On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17%
• Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around
Bitcoin for the Long Haul
A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise.
Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul.
Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures
On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data.
Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages:
• Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin)
• Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures
• Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits
Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up.
Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding.
Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime:
• In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308
• In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price
• Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin
• In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5)
• The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view
Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls.
Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075.
To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site:
www.cmegroup.com
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain.
I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price.
Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024).
What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security.
This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion.
By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026).
Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17.
This is a trader's market.
Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher.
BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin.
I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTC's Potential Up to 77K & Down to 130K? Here’s WhyBINANCE:BTCUSDT has both bullish and bearish scenarios in play now.
These days, the crypto market has been stagnant—no real pump, no real dump.
🔻 If it drops, how low will it go?
There’s a potential multiple-top pattern.
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaks below the neckline at $92,000 with volume—or fails to reclaim it—then the target drop sits at $77,000.
🚀 If it pumps, how high can it go?
A potential multiple-bottom pattern is forming.
If MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN breaks above the neckline at $107,000 with volume—or successfully retests it—then the target is $130,000.
🔥 Short-term strategy
The Feb 3rd candle had significant volume and has been a key resistance level multiple times.
This makes it a strong reference point for entries.
(See orange & light blue arrows.)
1️⃣ Long Setup
Entry trigger: $102,500 (Feb 3rd high)
Stop loss: $91,231 (Feb 3rd low)
2️⃣ Short Setup
Entry trigger: $91,231 (Feb 3rd low)
Stop loss: $102,500 (Feb 3rd high)
💡 Prices vary across exchanges. Use the prices from your trading platform.
🔴 Read my signature & publications for more info you don’t want to miss.
🔥 for more future script "guesses" like this!
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled.
We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again.
We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there.
A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for another decline?!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
Donald Trump has issued an executive order on digital assets, directing the Presidential Task Force to move toward establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve that will include XRP, SOL, and ADA. He emphasized, “I will ensure that the United States becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the world.” Trump further added, “We are making America great again!”
He also highlighted Bitcoin and Ethereum as other valuable digital assets that will be central to this reserve, stating, “I love Bitcoin and Ethereum!” Following this announcement, Bitcoin responded positively to the news of the executive order.
On February 28, BlackRock made headlines after Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000. Amid speculation, some claimed that the company had sold $500 million worth of Bitcoin, playing a significant role in the price decline.
However, a closer analysis contradicts these claims. Data shows that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) still holds 577,919 BTC. While this fund saw an outflow of 2,274 BTC on February 27 and a total of 10,595 BTC over the past week, this does not imply that BlackRock itself is selling Bitcoin.
These ETF outflows result from investors selling shares of the fund. In such scenarios, the ETF is required to sell Bitcoin proportionally to meet liquidity demands. Therefore, these movements are not directly tied to BlackRock’s own decision to offload BTC but rather reflect investor behavior.
Contrary to circulating rumors, BlackRock is not exiting Bitcoin; in fact, it has been increasing its exposure. Recent financial filings reveal that the company now holds a 5% stake in MicroStrategy (MSTR), up from 4.09% in September 2024.
Additionally, it has been announced that BlackRock plans to integrate its Bitcoin ETF into the firm’s $150 billion portfolio. This move suggests that rather than pulling out of the market, BlackRock is strengthening its position in Bitcoin-related assets.
Ultimately, this situation highlights how quickly rumors and speculation can spread during market downturns, but a detailed analysis of the data always provides a clearer picture of reality.
Meanwhile, Ronaldinho, the former Brazilian football star, has announced plans to launch his own cryptocurrency. He also warned his fans to stay vigilant against fraudulent meme coins.
BTCUSD PUMP & DUMPAnother classic pump and dump setup to line us up with some pips off BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Biggest tell was the current COT report and the broken fractional disparity when EURUSD BTCUSD and DXY all had bullish liquidity grabs.
Looking to sail with the sharks to the previous zone flip or the imbalance zone which also lines up with equilibrium and a large fair value.
Using VWAP to invalidate the trade.
BTC , road map
"Hello traders, when considering BTC, the decision-making process should align with your strategy as either a holder or trader. In high time frames, based on the (FVG) concept, BTC's price could potentially reach $180,000. However, for short-term traders, the price might dip to the $70,000 zone initially. I anticipate a pullback to $92,000, after which I will evaluate candle formations to determine a selling position.
Please note that this analysis is subject to updates over time."
If you have any specific questions or need further assistance with your message, feel free to let me know!
Bitcoin Weekly Timeframe Update: Technical AnalysisLast week closed at $94,265. The lowest close since Bitcoin broke above 90K on the 11-Nov. session happened at $93,563, the 26-Dec. 2024 week. The highest close happened at $104,447 on the 9-Dec. week. This is the trading range. Between $93,000 and $104,000 based on candle close.
Bitcoin went sideways starting early December 2024 and continues sideways to this day. We are projecting an end to this pattern in the coming weeks and months. I can say it is over now but before it shows we need a weekly close above 104. It can take some time because we are set to experience slow and steady grow. Imagine Bitcoin's price growing daily by $500 on average, or maybe $800 or $1,000. It would take 20 days of +$500 daily for Bitcoin to reach $103,000. Just an example.
10 days at +$1,000 each day would add $10,000 to Bitcoin's price. So it would take 30 days to add $30,000. $30,000 would put Bitcoin at $123,000. So imagine Bitcoin trading at 120K in April 2025.
It can go faster or slower but these examples can start to create a picture. With this picture we can build a map.
Last week closed as a hammer. When the hammer shows up at the bottom of a move, it spells the end of such move. Bitcoin didn't produce a downtrend but the three months sideways, between November '24 and February '25 can count as a trend. If the same period had a downward bent, last week's drop and recovery would signal the end of such trend.
Hold on. Let me try and speak clearly. I am saying that the bottom is in.
The new week can start shy and speed up toward the end. The truth is that we have good news and this good news sealed the bottom but the market still has to go through its loading phase. I am talking about several months of bullish consolidation before a major rise takes place. The good news is that a portion of the market, many of the smaller Altcoins, will start to boom in response.
Let's talk resistance and support.
$90,000 is a strong support. There has never been a close below this level. A wick can always touch it or pierce it but this would be short-term. When undesirable action develops, we look for the weekly timeframe for confirmation. Last week is the best example of all. Six days red but the week ended up being neutral. The chart technicals and dynamics stayed the same. Actually, the long lower wick ended up producing a bullish signal.
$90,000 followed by $85,000 are the immediate and main support.
The immediate resistance is set at $97,444.
Once Bitcoin moves and closes above $97,400 we can expect nice growth. While Bitcoin remains below this level, we are still mixed and within consolidation and accumulation. Bullish advance and higher gets confirmed once this resistance breaks.
Once broken, we can consider higher prices, we aim directly at new All-Time Highs. All levels that have been challenged in the past we can ignore. So the main target would be $120,000 followed by $128. Then we have $159,000 and the rest can be consider for the long long-term.
The in-between targets can be seen on the chart.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTC dell 120.000$📊 BTCUSDT Analysis:
Current Price: $102,859.06
Sell Zone: Near $120,000.00 (🟢 Major resistance)
Support Zone: $77,777.00 (🛡️ Key level for potential rebound)
🚨 Signal:
Bearish Scenario: If BTC reaches $120,000.00, it’s a sell opportunity 📉.
Bullish Scenario: In a strong bull trend (📈), you can buy dips around $77,777.00 (🚀 support area).
💡 Strategy:
Take profits near $120,000.00 🎯 if already holding BTC.
Watch for entries at $77,777.00 🔍 if BTC retraces.
📈 Trend: Overall Bullish unless support at $93,175 or $77,777 breaks (🔻).
🔐 Risk Management:
Stop-loss for buys: Below $73,316.18 (⚠️ Critical level).
Let me know if you need further clarification or tailored strategies!
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Technical Analysis – Possible Move📉 Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. However, a downtrend trendline has been broken, signaling a potential reversal or at least a relief rally.
📌 Key Observations:
Fibonacci Levels: The price recently bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$81,051), a strong support zone.
Support Zone (~$82,325 - $83,700): Price is currently testing a previous resistance-turned-support level.
Liquidity Grab & Rebound: If BTC holds above $83,700, we could see a bullish push.
🚀 Potential Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin maintains support above $83,700, it could retest $86,500 - $89,500, aligning with key Fibonacci extension levels.
A strong break above $89,500 could push BTC toward the $91,000 - $92,500 supply zone (marked in blue).
⚠️ Bearish Risk:
Losing the $82,325 support could lead to another retest of the $79,000 level.
A rejection at $86,500 - $89,500 could bring consolidation before a clearer trend emerges.
My FINAL Bitcoin chart and Idea (forever)Everyone is too busy focusing on the wrong Technicals. Fear and Greed, RSI, MACD, Stock Markets, etc. All of these are good tools but we have to remember a few things:
1. Zoom out (Bitcoin follows the same 4-year cycle every time... this time is NOT different)
2. Keep it Simple (I'm tired of messy charts, only put what you need for the current timeframe)
3. Avoid Leverage (These areas are too risky and much too volatile... liquidity is getting grabbed at almost every level) Stay safe.
I expect Bitcoin to retrace to $57k and then bounce back up... clear skies ahead if we can break out of this pattern I have drawn up. (If not we keep ranging as follows until we break significantly above the previous ATH)
Peace out! It's been fun... I may return to crypto one day (if ykyk)
Long Story short for BTCHistory hasn't failed yet, so the four-year cycle is still intact until it isn't. I have stretched this chart out for the next couple of years so that you can get a good idea of where the potential bottom will be during the next bear market. I plan to accumulate as much as possible the closer it gets to 66k. If we do reach a 150-250k top this cycle then I will expect a bear market bottom between 66-76k. Watch my levels and use them as a guideline. Historically Bitcoin has NEVER returned to the price its low during the US election week:
2012 Election Week Low - $10
2016 Election Week Low - $700
2020 Election Week Low - $13,200
2024 Election Week Low - $66,800
that brings us to now... if this doesn't indicate the current market sentiment then I don't know what will. There's a reason why many genius economists are speculating a 1 million dollar bitcoin in the next 8 years.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
This chart presents a technical breakdown of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) using supply and demand zones to anticipate potential price movements. It reflects a bearish bias as price action shows rejection from the supply zone (sell zone) and an expected drop toward the demand zone (buy zone).
🔍 Key Chart Elements
1. Supply Zone (Sell Zone) – Resistance Area
The supply zone is highlighted in the upper region, approximately between $86,000 and $88,000.
This area represents a strong resistance where sellers are active, preventing further price increases.
Bitcoin recently tested this zone but failed to break above, leading to a price rejection.
2. Demand Zone (Buy Zone) – Support Area
The demand zone is marked in the lower region, around $69,000 to $67,000.
This is a historical support level where strong buying interest is expected.
If Bitcoin reaches this level, a potential bullish reversal could occur.
📉 Bearish Price Projection
The chart includes a downward arrow, indicating an expected bearish movement from the supply zone toward the demand zone.
Reason for the expected drop:
BTC is struggling to gain momentum above $86,000, showing signs of weakness.
The recent bearish candles suggest increased selling pressure in the market.
A failed breakout above resistance increases the likelihood of a downward move.
Price Targets:
First target: Around $74,000, a potential minor support.
Second target: Around $69,000, which aligns with the demand zone and could act as a strong support level.
🔄 Potential Alternative Scenario – Bullish Breakout (Low Probability)
If BTC manages to break above the $88,000 resistance level, it could trigger a bullish rally.
In this case, the next targets would be $92,000 and $96,000.
However, given the current market structure, this is a less likely scenario unless buying momentum increases significantly.
Insane Growth Is Just Beginning For Bitcoin BTCHello, Skyrexians!
Recently we made two analysis on BINANCE:BTCUSDT . In the first one we pointed out that $80k is going to be the reversal point, in the second that bullish reversal bar has been confirmed at $85k. Now we are seeing how it is playing out. This is just the beginning of a pump. Here is why.
On the daily time frame we can see the green dot on the Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator which has appeared when price bounced form. 0.5 Fibonacci. For us this is the clear sign that wave 2 has been finished and now Bitcoin is printing wave 3. This wave has the most realistic target next to $180k at 1.61 Fibonacci extension, but the strong resistance can be met at $140k.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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Bitcoin Price Analysis / Cup and Handle BreakoutOn the weekly Bitcoin chart, we can see a cup and handle pattern, a classic bullish formation:
Cup and Handle Formation:
The price formed a rounded bottom (the cup) followed by a smaller consolidation dip (the handle).
This pattern is a sign of long-term accumulation and typically signals a continuation of the uptrend after a breakout.
Breakout:
Bitcoin broke out of the handle’s resistance, confirming the bullish pattern.
The breakout suggests strong buying pressure, pushing the price toward a new peak.
Retest Zone:
After the breakout, the price is testing the previous resistance (now support).
A successful retest could confirm the breakout, setting the stage for another rally.
Bitcoin Peak Target:
The green arrow suggests a potential price peak if the retest holds and the trend continues upward.
Peaks often align with historical halving cycles and market sentiment, so the upward channel could act as a guide for price discovery.
Key Levels:
Support: The lower yellow trendline.
Resistance: The upper yellow trendline.
A bounce from support would strengthen the bullish case, while a breakdown could signal a deeper correction.
BTC/USDT weekly chart displays an important pattern. Current Price Action: Bitcoin is trading around $92,766.71, a notable position just below the recent highs.
Resistance Area: A clear resistance level is represented by the horizontal line near $100,000. This level has proven difficult to break, and price action will soon determine if it can reclaim this area.
Cup and Handle Pattern: The chart shows a potential cup and handle formation, which could indicate bullish sentiment if the price breaks above resistance. This pattern has a rounded bottom formed in early 2022 and late 2023.
Volume Analysis: It is important to analyze volume alongside price moves. A breakout above resistance will ideally be supported by high volume to confirm strength.
Potential Support Level: If the price pulls back, the green highlighted area provides support, which traders could view as a buying opportunity.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
$BTC SHORTERS are squeezed bigly !!At the end of last week it looked like the shorters of CRYPTOCAP:BTC where confident that any little bounce will be met with selling, and many predictions of 70K or 60k where quickly added.
However Trump announces a reserve building strategy while futures markets are closed.
This is the perfect example that you won't hold a major futures trade over the weekend.
Pun intended with "bigly" (Trump likes to use this word)
www.cnbc.com
Secure Profits of LONGBTC/USDT 1H Technical Analysis – Updated Insights
🟢 BitcoinMF Signal: TP Hit – Key Resistance Zone
The BitcoinMF PRO indicator's long signal successfully hit the Take Profit (TP) target, aligning with a resistance level around $94,410. This area is now a critical decision point for BTC's next move.
📊 Advanced Technical Breakdown:
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions:
To assess potential support and resistance levels, key Fibonacci levels have been recalculated based on the recent price movement:
0.236 Fib Retracement (Support) → $87,416
0.382 Fib Retracement (Support) → $85,991
0.618 Fib Retracement (Stronger Support) → $80,423
1.618 Fib Extension (Bullish Target) → $98,217
2.618 Fib Extension (Aggressive Target) → $104,500
These levels suggest that maintaining support above $87,000 could pave the way for a move toward 98K, while a breach below this support might lead to a deeper retracement.
2️⃣ CME Gap – Key Risk Factor
A CME gap exists between $77,930 and $81,210, formed in November 2024. Historically, such gaps tend to be filled over time, indicating a potential retracement to this zone before resuming the macro uptrend.
3️⃣ Bitcoin Dominance – Altcoin Impact
BTC Dominance is currently at 52.8%, indicating that Bitcoin is leading the market rally. This dominance suggests that if BTC corrects, altcoins may experience more significant declines in the short term.
4️⃣ Exchange Flows – Whale Activity
There has been a significant outflow of BTC from exchanges, signaling accumulation by investors and reduced selling pressure. This trend supports the potential for further upside unless a reversal pattern emerges.
5️⃣ Fear & Greed Index – Market Sentiment
The Fear & Greed Index currently reads 81 (Extreme Greed), reflecting strong bullish sentiment. While this indicates market confidence, it also warrants caution, as extreme greed can precede corrective phases.
6️⃣ Fisher Transform & Stochastic RSI
Fisher Transform: The indicator is in the overbought zone but has not yet signaled a reversal.
Stochastic RSI: Recently crossed above 80, indicating overheated conditions and suggesting a potential cooldown or sideways movement.
🔮 Next Most Probable Move:
📊 Probability Score (Scale 1-10)
Bullish Continuation Probability: 6.5/10
Short-Term Correction Probability: 7.5/10
🔹 Scenarios:
If BTC maintains support above
87K, a move toward
98K is plausible.
If BTC falls below 87K, the 80K region becomes the next significant support level.
🚨 Most Likely Outcome: A short-term retracement toward 87K-85K is anticipated before the uptrend potentially resumes, targeting 98K-100K.
Bitcoin - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!Midterm forecast:
73777.00 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 78181.05 on 02/28/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 98489.63, 101430.12, 105431.17 and more heights is expected.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Take Profits:
94200.00
98489.63
101430.12
105431.17
109932.89
115000.00
120000.00
125000.00
130000.00
134142.91
__________________________________________________________________
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