Trade Idea: BTCUSD Long (BUY LIMIT)Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart
• Trend: Strong uptrend with a recent bullish recovery from a pullback.
• MACD: Bullish crossover, MACD line above Signal line, histogram positive.
• RSI (14): 66.21 — momentum is strong but not overbought.
15-Minute Chart
• MACD: Positive histogram and crossover confirming short-term bullish momentum.
• RSI (14): 53.89 — mid-range, confirming no immediate exhaustion.
• Price Action: Higher lows and higher highs indicate short-term trend alignment with the Daily.
3-Minute Chart
• MACD: Bearish divergence, indicating a possible short-term pullback.
• RSI (14): 43.43 — recent dip offering a better long entry on minor weakness.
• Price: Currently consolidating near $97,000 after rejecting a local high.
⸻
Fundamental Context:
• Macro: Institutional inflows into BTC ETFs and upcoming monetary easing expectations are long-term bullish drivers.
• Market Sentiment: Risk-on behavior across equities is spilling into crypto.
⸻
Trade Setup (Long Position)
• Entry: $96,800
• Minor pullback support zone on M15/M3, aligns with moving average and volume node.
• Stop Loss (SL): $95,400
• Below recent swing low and structural support.
• Take Profit (TP): $100,200
• Near Daily resistance and psychological round number FUSIONMARKETS:BTCUSD
1-BTCUSD
BTC/USD 1D chart ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1D BTC chart for USD, in this situation we can see how the price came out of a strong downward trend, which gave a strong upward movement for the price. Going further, let's check the places of potential target for the price:
T1 = 96592 $
T2 = 101878 $
Т3 = 109442 $
Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market:
SL1 = 92363 $
SL2 = 89028 $
SL3 = 83498 $
SL4 = 79350 $
Looking at the RSI indicator, we can see that despite a small price change, the indicator strongly reacted what potentially can give energy to further price increases in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin is Overbought, but $100,000 Target is Still at HandFenzoFx—Bitcoin is overbought at $97,000, a signal indicated by the Stochastic Oscillator. The price is expected to consolidate before the uptrend resumes. In this scenario, a dip toward $93,565 may provide a favorable entry point into the bull market.
Watch this level, followed by $91,720, for bullish signals such as candlestick patterns.
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Market Overview (May 7, 2025)📊 Key Metrics
1. Funding Rate: ~0.018% (on Binance)
— positive rate indicates long position dominance and bullish sentiment
2. Open Interest (OI): GETTEX:29B , up ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:7B in recent days
— rising OI suggests new positions are opening, increasing volatility risk
3. ETF Inflows: +$420.9M (May 6)
— strong institutional demand, especially into BlackRock’s IBIT
4. Fear & Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
— rising greed may signal potential for a short-term correction
⸻
📈 Market Movement Probability
• Upward: 60%
(supported by ETF inflows and positive funding)
• Downward: 40%
(high greed and rising OI could trigger a correction)
⸻
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Gold Short Trade Setup – Targeting 3350 with Tiered Take ProfitThis chart shows a short setup for gold (XAUUSD) on the 30-minute timeframe. Price is currently trading below a descending trendline and has formed a lower high near a marked resistance level. There was a clear change of character and a break of structure to the downside, indicating a bearish shift in market sentiment. Volume also appears to increase on bearish candles, adding strength to the downside move. The target is marked near the previous low around 3350, suggesting a short opportunity with a clear resistance and descending trendline acting as confluence.
TP1 – 3370
Just above the immediate support level, offering a conservative exit before the price potentially bounces.
TP2 – 3350
The main target on the chart, near the previous low. Strong support zone; ideal for full or partial profit.
TP3 – 3325
Extension target if bearish momentum accelerates. Use only if volume and price action support further downside.
Bitcoin Dominance - the two scenarios!Bitcoin dominance continues to rise after breaking out of a rising wedge pattern on the weekly chart. It has now also broken through the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Next stop is Rectangle 1, where Bitcoin dominance is expected to reach 68% — and most likely, this will mark the top of dominance before it starts to drop, triggering a historic altcoin season.
Scenario 2:
Dominance keeps pushing higher toward Rectangle 2, potentially surpassing 70%. At that point, many altcoins may form new lows, and weak projects could get wiped out.
Fear in the market will hit extreme levels —
but that could signal the beginning of an altseason and the collapse of BTC dominance.
Best regards Ceciliones 🎯
BITCOIN Mirror fractal from the past calls for massive rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) appears to be repeating almost the exact same price action as mid-late 2020 as it has broken above the Pivot trend-line that separates the recent distribution from the 2nd Accumulation phase and has successfully re-tested it while the MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding as Support.
If the latter continues to hold, then it might fuel a massive rally similar to October 2020 - April 2021. As you can see both fractals started of with a 1st Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle) being supported always by their respective MA200 (orange trend-line), which led to the eventual Distribution Phase (red Arc). Even their RSI sequences are identical.
Is this another pattern supporting that BTC will reach at least $150k next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical(BTC/USDT) analysis outlines a bullish outlook with key technical levels and scenarios. Here's a breakdown of the idea:
Key Observations:
1. Trend Break and CHoCH (Change of Character):
The chart shows a clear break of the downtrend, confirmed by the CHoCH label — a common Smart Money Concept (SMC) signal indicating a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
2. Key Zones Highlighted:
EVC-Buying Zone: Around 86,000 – 88,000 (aligned with EMA 200), marked as a strong accumulation area.
New Support Level: Around 92,000 – 93,000, potentially forming a bullish support after the recent rally.
Resistance Levels: Two major resistance zones near:
99,600 (intermediate resistance and target)
106,400 (final target)
3. RSI Indicator:
RSI is near 64, indicating strong momentum but not yet overbought — a potential sign of further upside.
4. Two Bullish Scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Aggressive Bullish): BTC continues upward from the current level and breaks above resistance toward the 106,447 target.
Scenario 2 (Retracement Bullish): BTC dips to the new support or even into the buying zone (86–88k), then rebounds to reach the same targets.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Idea Summary:
The chart suggests bullish continuation, with potential pullbacks into strong demand zones. It supports both breakout and retracement entries, with targets at 99,632 and 106,447. If price holds above EMA 200 and RSI remains supportive, the upside thesis remains valid.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
May 2 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There will be an indicator announcement at 9:30 in a little while.
Unlike Nasdaq, Bitcoin touched the upper Bollinger Band first and is on the verge of an upward trend.
Since there is a possibility of missing the entry point at the current position,
I set the stop loss price short and proceeded aggressively.
*One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. Pursuit purchase at $96,835.6 / When the purple support line is broken,
or when the bottom section is touched, stop loss price
2. Long position target price at $98,766.4 -> Good 2nd target -> Great 3rd target
If the Great section is broken at the top,
the probability of a new high price is high.
From the bottom touch, the mid-term pattern will be broken
(currently 6+12 in progress)
When looking at the candle shape, from the green support line bottom breakout
It can break out strongly, so please refer to the bottom 2, 3 times up to 93016.7 dollars, and if 93K breaks, a downward trend can be connected again, so
You should be careful.
I left the analysis article up to May 6th
and the main points and the drawing section on one page, so it's hard
Please just refer to and use my analysis article up to here
I will see you next week after the holiday.
Thank you.
Bitcoin vs. Saylor: The Power and Danger of fanatical promotionToday I want to talk about Michael Saylor and his influence on many crypto minds and, to some extent, the movement of Bitcoin’s price.
It’s very important to understand who we’re listening to, who we’re following, and whether this person has hidden motives we don’t see due to lack of information or unwillingness to get it — due to our stubborn desire to see only what confirms our own fantasies and thoughts and serves our expectations.
Let’s turn on our reason and objectivity and face the facts.
Michael Saylor is a well-known figure in the crypto world. He promotes the idea of eternal Bitcoin growth and actively buys it to support his words. When the price drops, he even suggests his readers sell their organs, which, to me, is too much.
Let’s move to the facts — everything is Googleable, and promptable.
Facts:
📈 Hype of 2000
In 2000, he rode the dot-com hype with his company MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy was promoted as a pioneer in business analytics and data management software, and he saw himself solely as a visionary of the new economy.
The boom was sky-high — just read about the dot-com era. Stocks of new tech companies were soaring, and it was enough to say “software” and “I see the future.”
In 1998, MicroStrategy successfully held an IPO. In 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom, the company’s stock reached an incredible $333 per share in March.
He skillfully used the hype, and here was his 2000 narrative:
Digital transformation: Saylor claimed the world was entering a new era where data would become the main asset of companies, and MicroStrategy — the key tool for processing and analyzing it.
Unlimited growth: In the dot-com era, Saylor pushed the idea that tech companies like MicroStrategy would grow exponentially, ignoring traditional financial constraints.
The future is now: Saylor created the feeling that MicroStrategy wasn’t just following trends but shaping them, offering solutions that would define the future of business.
At the same time, he was building a cult around himself, cultivating the image of a genius entrepreneur.
⚠️ Financial reporting scandal
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into MicroStrategy. The company overstated revenues, which led to a stock crash (from $333 to $86 in one day) and a loss of investor trust. The stock kept falling and dropped to $0.4 (–100%!).
The SEC filed charges against Michael Saylor personally (CEO), as well as CFO Mark Lynch and the chief accountant. They were accused of intentionally misrepresenting financials to keep stock prices high.
SEC investigation results:
In December 2000, the SEC concluded the investigation, and MicroStrategy agreed to settle without admitting guilt:
* The company paid a $10M fine.
* Saylor, Lynch, and other executives paid personal fines.
* Saylor agreed to pay $8.28M in “disgorgement” (unjust enrichment) and a $350K fine — a total of about $8.63M.
* MicroStrategy committed to revising its reporting and implementing stricter internal controls.
In addition to the SEC settlement ($11M from leadership, including $8.63M from Saylor), MicroStrategy faced shareholder class-action lawsuits, which were settled for $10M.
No executives were criminally charged, but the company’s and Saylor’s reputations suffered greatly.
In other words, Michael didn’t have any moral hesitation about faking company profits during losses. But investors and journalists started asking questions — and the SEC came knocking.
Let’s call it what it is: Saylor committed fraud, using hype, promising endless growth, and creating a cult around himself as a “financial genius and visionary.”
Michael went quiet, and the media tone shifted quickly — from super-visionary to one of the biggest losers and scammers.
To give him credit, he managed to keep the company alive and kept a low profile until 2020, like a mouse. 20 years — a generation change and a new hype cycle.
And what does a tech visionary do? Of course — jump into the new wave. A chance to restore his image — probably more important to him than money.
🟠 Bitcoin Era, 2020
Before 2020, Saylor was a Bitcoin skeptic. In 2013, he even tweeted that “Bitcoin’s days are numbered” and compared it to gambling.
But in 2020, he changed his position after deeply studying crypto. His mission: to protect capital and restore his image as a prophet — and he decided to buy Bitcoin.
But his own money seemed insufficient, so he turned to borrowing.
Here’s how the scheme works:
1.MicroStrategy issues stocks and bonds
📈 They sell new MSTR shares → get cash.
💵 They issue bonds (debt papers) → investors give them money at interest.
2. They use that money to buy Bitcoin
🟧 All the raised funds go into BTC purchases.
They don’t sell. Just hold. Never lock in profit.
3. If BTC rises → MSTR stock price rises
MSTR becomes a kind of "BTC ETF."
📊 BTC growth = MicroStrategy’s market cap growth.
🔁 Then they repeat the cycle.
Stock price up → issue more shares/bonds → buy more BTC → repeat.
📌 The catch:
They use other people’s money (debt) to buy BTC.
They sell almost nothing.
They bet BTC will grow faster than interest on the debt.
So as long as the price goes up — everything is fine.
Let’s admit: his fanaticism, aggressive marketing, and bold statements have helped Bitcoin.
But the main question: will the inevitable market correction wipe out this belief in endless growth?
🔍 His personality
It’s crucial for us as traders and investors to understand who really runs the company or project. The personal traits of leaders are useful information that gives us insight and a behavioral map.
We need to research not only products and financials, but also the psychological types of those making the decisions.
Saylor’s aggressive marketing and loud statements are part of his personality.
He fed off the hype around his persona more than any growing bank balance.
And there’s nothing wrong with that — until you start deceiving people to keep attention on yourself.
For example, in the 2000s, *Forbes* noted that Saylor “sold the dream” of a new economy where traditional profit metrics didn’t matter.
It attracted investors — but didn’t reflect reality. Forbes hinted that his desire to maintain the genius image may have led to accounting manipulation.
Saylor created an "expectations bubble" that burst.
His desire to prove he’s a genius led to a disconnection from reality.
He often talks about himself as a genius and visionary (sounds like a grandiose ego).
He positions himself as the savior of capital through BTC (messiah complex).
He publicly mocks “weak hands” and traditional investors (shows superiority).
He never admits mistakes, even after losing billions (denial and overconfidence).
He repeats his ideas again and again (manic fixation on being right).
His speech is like a manifesto, not a dialogue. He doesn’t converse — he proclaims.
I don’t sense greed in him. I sense emptiness that demands a cult.
He doesn’t live for money — he is obsessed with the idea.
And that’s the problem — there’s no objectivity here. It feels more like revenge after the humiliation and downfall of 20 years ago.
He’s smart — no doubt. But it’s not just intelligence. It’s cold messianism.
Obsession, not passion.
Psychotype: Grand strategist with a humiliation trauma
Trait Behavior
Narcissistic core “I’m special, my vision is above all.”
Obsession with greatness “I must be the truth, not just be right.”
Hyper-rationality “I survive through logic, not feelings.”
Psychological armor “I won’t show weakness. If I break, I disappear.”
Fanatical visionary “My idea is supreme. I don’t need to be humble.”
💸 More facts:
In 2024, Michael paid a FWB:40M fine for tax evasion.
The accusation:
He didn’t pay income tax in D.C., while actively living there — yachts, property, planes, frequent visits.
His tax returns didn’t reflect reality, and the investigation used GPS, Instagram, flight data, banking, and other digital traces.
Saylor didn’t admit guilt but agreed to settle for around $40M.
His personal wealth is mostly in MicroStrategy shares (9.9% or ~$8.74B by end of 2024).
Theoretically, he can sell them — but he must file a report within two days.
Current status:
MicroStrategy owns 555,450 BTC
Average purchase price: ~$68,550
Total purchase cost: ~$38.08B
Unrealized profit: ~$14.7B
And remember — Saylor’s slogan: Forever HODL.
📉 But the key point:
The company’s current debt is $7.24B.
All is good — as long as the price rises.
Analysts estimate BTC would have to fall to ~$20K before MSTR is forced to liquidate.
But if BTC nears the break-even zone, fear might hit shareholders first — triggering stock sell-offs.
If MSTR shares fall — which is likely during a BTC crash — bondholders, especially those with convertible bonds (which make up most of the debt), might demand repayment.
That could force Saylor to sell BTC.
Because in a crypto winter, buyers for MSTR stock or bonds may disappear.
So BTC could fall — not because of actual sales, but from fear of those sales.
This is my main concern with Saylor’s oversized influence on the market.
🐍 A bit of “reptilian” theory
What if BlackRock *planned* to use Saylor’s hands to push Bitcoin and concentrate large amounts in one basket — then take it from him?
Among the main bondholders are big institutions:
* Allianz Global Investors
* Voya Investment Management
* Calamos Investments
* State Street
These bonds are usually unsecured and non-convertible, making them attractive to investors who want Bitcoin exposure without direct ownership.
In case of default, bondholders have priority over the company’s assets — including BTC reserves.
🏛 State Street Corporation
Public company traded on NYSE.
Its biggest shareholders: Vanguard Group and BlackRock .
If so — they could end up holding as much BTC as Satoshi.
BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~500K BTC.
MicroStrategy holds ~500K BTC.
🤔 Questions to reflect on:
* Is industry leader fanaticism good for the development of crypto?
* What is Michael Saylor really doing? Avenging the past? Or truly in love with the technology?
* What risks does a whale with media influence and fanaticism and pockets full of Bitcoin and debt pose to the market?
Waiting for your thoughts in the comments, dear traders! Hugs! 🤗
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin is currently testing a major resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000, which also aligns with the 0.707 Fibonacci retracement. This area has previously acted as a strong supply zone, raising the possibility of a short-term rejection.
Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks and closes above $100,000, we could see a strong continuation toward $106,000 → $112,000, driven by momentum and possible FOMO.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback Before Continuation:
If Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance, a retest of the lower support zone (previous demand area) may follow.
A successful bounce from that support could reignite bullish momentum in the medium term.
Trading Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout and candle close above $100K for a high-conviction long entry.
Alternatively, look for buy setups on a pullback toward the support zone for a better risk-reward entry.
How are you planning to trade this setup? Breakout or dip-buy? Share your strategy below! 👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BTC New Update (8H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
In the previous scenario, we considered that Bitcoin was in a diametric where wave E had extended. However, after reviewing the charts and analyzing various scenarios, we decided to revise the wave count as shown in this update, since wave E of the previous diametric scenario became overly extended.
You can see the complete wave count of the chart in this update. The correction in Bitcoin started from the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart. This correction was a diametric and ended where the green arrow is placed.
From the point where the green arrow is shown on the chart, Bitcoin's bullish wave has started, which is either wave A or W.
According to this scenario, the expected rejection zone should be between 98K and 103K.
The lowest-risk area for price rejection is the red box.
A daily candle close above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
Let’s see what happens.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin H1 | Potential bullish bounce off a pullback supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 95,480.50 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 93,200.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 97,770.35 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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DeGRAM | BTCUSD Holds the Accumulation Zone📊 Technical Analysis
● BTC rebounded off rising‐channel boundary and has formed a base in the $93K–95.3K accumulation zone. A decisive break above ~$95,700 would confirm a fresh leg to $98,000.
● Higher lows and tightening range signal building bullish pressure for an impulsive move toward the channel top.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Spot BTC ETFs logged ~$675 M of net inflows on May 2.
✨ Summary
Rising‐channel support + sustained ETF demand favor a short‐term long bias: targets GETTEX:98K → $100K; view invalidated below $91,500.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
GbpAud now the “buyers” are within!Good day traders, we back with GBPAUD but before I go into it. Last week I took loss because I was buying GBPAUD but I lately found out I was way too early and my narrative has not changed at all.
1D- Daily TF we have a bearish structure and we know that once price shifts structure we want price to retest Atleast till the 0.705 of the OTE fib level to later continue to the Sellside liquidity.
4H- On this respective TF we are also in a bearish structure but I believe not for long because on the lower TF the shift higher has materialised, giving confirmation that we can start positioning ourselves for the up movement.
1H- ICT has a entry model(F.PFVG), on the hourly we saw prices giving back all of yesterday’s gains till it reach that level of first presented FVG and that’s what we gonna use as the level of interest.
BTC at Key Inflection Zone – Breakout or Rejection Ahead?Asset: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 4H or Daily (based on visual pattern structure)
As of: May 6, 2025
Indicators:
50 EMA (Red): $91,615.79
200 EMA (Blue): $89,305.75
Key Technical Zones:
🔴 Resistance Zone: ~$104,000 – $108,000
This area has historically acted as a major supply zone.
Price has been rejected from this level multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure.
🔁 Flip Zone (Resistance turned Support/Support turned Resistance): ~$95,500 – $100,000
The current price ($95,234.23) is testing this zone from below.
A confirmed break and hold above could signal continuation toward the higher resistance.
🟢 Strong Support Zone: ~$88,000 – $91,000
Confluence of 50 EMA and 200 EMA adds strength to this demand zone.
Previous breakout level and accumulation area.
EMA Outlook:
50 EMA > 200 EMA: Short-term bullish crossover is active, indicating bullish momentum.
Both EMAs are sloping upward slightly, suggesting trend strengthening.
Price is currently above both EMAs, which acts as dynamic support.
Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If price reclaims the $95,500–$100,000 resistance-turned-support zone:
Expect upward momentum to continue.
Target: $104,000–$108,000 zone.
Break of $108K could lead to a macro bull continuation.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario:
If price rejects the current zone and fails to hold above the $91,000 support:
Look for retest of $88,000–$89,000 area (confluence with EMAs).
Breakdown below that zone would invalidate bullish structure and signal potential deeper correction.
Summary:
Bias: Bullish above $91K, Neutral between FWB:88K –$91K, Bearish below $88K.
Key Confirmation Needed: Daily close above $100,000 for strong bullish continuation.
Risk Management: Watch for fakeouts within the $95K–$100K range due to past volatility.
Bitcoin - The Bottom Is In!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is reversing right now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It was really just a matter of time until Bitcoin actually manages to create a potential short term and longer term bottom. With this monthly candle, bulls are taking over again and starting to buy cryptos quite heavily. The chart just tells us that this is not the end, but rather the continuation.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
PENGUUSDTA risky analysis of a popular meme coin..
Based on this analysis, we are in wave 4 and it is expected to end soon and enter wave 5..
Around 0.091 to 0.085, if the price reaches it, it will be suitable for a short swing to the target of 0.0163 and 0.0175..
Ideal time zones are also marked with low tolerance..
This analysis can be easily filled..