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Crypto Alpha Report - January 28, 2025Happy Tuesday, friends! Fancy yourself a trader do you? In today’s episode, let’s face some hard facts and distinguish between a true trader (the 1%) and the gambler (the 99%). Grab a box of tissues, because this one might sting. Ah, the trader. What a glorious lifestyle. From the luxury of an Adirondack chair on a cozy beach, sipping Mai Tai’s, scalping the one-minute chart, and reeling in a few grand a day. Is this what you initially pictured when you started trading? Unfortunately, the sad reality is that this is mostly a pipe dream. It’s a lie that’s sold over and over again that appeals to our innate desire to live ‘the good life.’ But, as humans, we gobble this fantasy up and throw our hard-earned capital into the markets - often to disastrous effect. While it’s not impossible to live this dream, the reality is that most of us focus on the end goal, the Mai Tai and the pretty senoritas, and not the process that achieves the end goal. Backtesting? Boooooring! Strategy creation? Pssh, why do that when all I have to do is find the right memecoin, bet big, and retire? For every successful story you hear of a meme coin trade gone right, a few thousand traders could show you a -99% loss. Memecoin trading is the new lottery. You do know the odds of hitting the lottery, don’t you? All right, as if that wasn’t enough fluff, let’s cut to the chase. If you don’t know the statistical odds of your ability to win or lose a trade, you’re not a trader; you’re a gambler. “But I follow price action, bro…” No, stop that; you’re a gambler. I’ve met a handful of price action traders with statistics, and kudos to them. But 99/100 “price action traders” are just gamblers. Confirmation bias, seeing what they want to see, and survivor bias - that’s the cocktail of “smart money concepts.” Hey, if you can backtest it, more power to you. But most of you can’t and won’t. Building a strategy isn’t sexy, but it’s the difference between sitting down in front of the charts every day and knowing (roughly) how you will do, and sitting down in front of the charts just praying that today will be your lucky day. Don’t rely on luck; become good. That takes hard work, just like anything else. It also takes a lot of trial and error. Start small and increase capital as your success increases. Slow and steady is the Path to Profit. Fast and loose is the road back to Burger King. Make today the day you commit to building a long-term strategy. Make today the day you swear off gambling because your lucky day is likely not coming. Stay frosty, friends. Crypto Market Update Stablecoin Dominance Currently sitting at 5.79%, yesterday saw a strong attempt to break out above 6%, a level I have continually warned is the danger zone for the market, particularly altcoins. However, we did see a strong buy back from the market moving into yesterday’s daily close. This metric is overbought, but any strong close above 6% is a major warning sign. Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance Currently at 64.75%. This metric is also overbought, and showcasing the same technical position we were in right before Christmas, which led to a two week mark up period for the altcoin markets. Unfortunately, we’re not showing any weakness yet, so speculating on a reversal in altcoins is a high risk move at this point. Watch for a clearer sign of rejection and weakness first. Altcoin Price Performance Relative to Bitcoin Altcoins, besides the majors, are still getting obliterated. Underperforming Bitcoin by -24.74% currently. While we are oversold, no signs of strength yet. Perhaps in the next few days we might see a reversal in trend, but all eyes on the upcoming FOMC. Bitcoin Trends 5M: Bearish 30M: Bullish 1H: Bearish 4H: Neutral Daily: Bullish Weekly: Bullish After a strong sell off in reaction to the DeepSeek news, Bitcoin did put in a strong buy back at Daily Support. So far, we have not closed below our Daily Trend, nor the Weekly 10 MA. Tentatively optimistic, but I’m quite concerned about a deeper retracement unless we get a rate cut tomorrow. Key Levels POC: $104,955 VWAP: $102,609 Value Area Low: $101,569 - $102,079 Value Area High: $103,139 - $103,649 Next Liquidity Zone Above: $104,474 - $105,800 Next Liquidity Zone Below: $98,773 - $99,723 Bitcoin is trading in a relatively tight range today, after yesterday’s big move down. Currently fighting resistance at ~$103,500 with support at $101,566. Strategy: Honestly, expecting further downside pressure. Re-evaluate bias on a close above $103,500 - likely a lot of chop and volatility leading into tomorrow’s FOMC. Stay safe.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by CrackingCryptocurrency
#BTC/USDT Ready to launch upwards#BTC The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 98500 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 102500 First target 104300 Second targe 107500 Third target 110080
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-28 : Temp Bottom PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp Bottom. After yesterday's big breakdown and consolidation, I believe the SPY will attempt to identify support, possibly near 597, and attempt to move higher a bit today. Ultimately, a Temp Bottom pattern is where the price seeks out support (moving downward or retesting recent support levels) and then rolls to the upside, creating a base/bottom type of pattern. The QQQ should follow the same pattern. Gold and Silver seem trapped for the next 2-3 days (possibly melting a bit higher as the US Dollar appears to be moving downward a bit). I don't see Gold/Silver starting to make any big moves until Jan 31 or in early Feb. Bitcoin will likely stall out, just like the SPY/QQQ, over the next 2-3 days, then move into a downward price phase - attempting to move back towards $92k. I believe the markets are stalling and in a bit of shock at the moment. Don't get too aggressive in any trades unless you are confident in your ability to manage risk levels. Some sectors/symbols will trend. But the SPY/QQQ will likely stall out for another 2-3 days before making another big move. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
**Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart Analysis** OANDA:XAUUSD **Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart Analysis** OANDA:XAUUSD 1. **Uptrend Channel:** - The price has been respecting an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows. - The channel’s lower boundary is acting as dynamic support, while the upper boundary serves as resistance. 2. **Current Price Action:** - Gold is pulling back from the upper resistance area around **$2,780** and is now approaching the midline and lower boundary of the channel. - A break below **$2,740** could lead to a test of the channel’s lower boundary near **$2,720-$2,700**. 3. **Potential Trade Outlook:** - **Bullish Scenario:** If price finds support at the lower trendline and rebounds, it could present a buying opportunity targeting **$2,760-$2,780** again. - **Bearish Scenario:** A confirmed breakdown of the channel support might lead to further declines toward **$2,700** or lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
**EUR/USD Bearish Breakout: Potential Drop to 1.03500**This EUR/USD 1-hour chart indicates a **bearish breakout** from an ascending channel. Key observations: 1. **Breakout Confirmation:** Price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel, signaling a potential trend reversal. 2. **Bearish Momentum:** The price is retesting the broken trendline, and rejection at this level could confirm further downside. 3. **Target Zone:** The next significant support is around **1.03500**, aligning with previous structure levels. 4. **EMA Slope:** The short-term moving averages are turning bearish, adding confluence to a possible downward move. If the price holds below the breakout zone, a short setup toward 1.03500 could be valid. A re-entry above the trendline could invalidate this bearish bias. FOREXCOM:EURUSD
Short
by TRADE_CENTER_1
bitcoin market oulook still stuck in range buy low sell high🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for BTCUSD . we are still stuck in range since december, range highs at/near 108k, range lows at 90k. 🔸4 hour sell side liquidity defined by OB at 108k, currently trading at 102k, limited upside going forward expecting pullback to re-test range lows and trigger fresh buying / fresh OB liquidity near 90k. 🔸Recommended strategy: BUY LOW near liquidity OBs 90k usd, TP bulls is fresh overhead liquidity at/near 108/110K. expecting decent bounce in this market after pullback. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
by ProjectSyndicate
18
BTC/USDT 1H: Bulls Aim for $106.8k After Key Recovery ! BTC/USDT 1H Chart Analysis 🚀 Follow me on Tradingview if you respect our charts 📈 Current Market Structure: Bullish recovery underway after a liquidity sweep at 98.4k. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Higher lows on RSI while price made lower lows, indicating potential for further upside. Smart Money Activity: Accumulation phase appears complete. Market now transitioning to markup phase with strong institutional buying evident. Key Levels: Entry Zone: 101.8k-102.2k Targets: T1: 104.4k T2: 106.8k Stop Loss: Below 98.2k (recent sweep). Risk Score: 7.5/10 (favorable R:R with clear invalidation). Market Maker Intent: Previous distribution attempt at 104.4k failed, suggesting a move to target liquidity near prior highs. Volume profile supports the bullish narrative, with strong accumulation complete. Recommendation: Long positions are favorable within the 101.8k-102.2k range. Maintain tight stops below 98.2k to limit downside risk. Monitor price action near 104.4k for potential resistance. Confidence Level: 8/10 for bullish continuation. 🚀 Follow me on Tradingview if you respect our charts 📈
Long
by Cryptokijker
BITCOIN Rebounded on a Double Support. Will it continue higher?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced a sharp sell-off yesterday following the DeepSeek news but managed to recover more than 50% of the losses as it rebounded on the Double Support level. The obvious level that catches your eye is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which was tested for the first time in 12 days. The second is the Pivot trend-line, which was formerly a Lower Highs trend-line initiating from the December 17 2024 All Time High (ATH). At the same time, it almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of January's Channel Up. Technically that is similar with December's Channel Up, which also had a Pivot trend-line test that delivered a rebound and a Higher High to the December 17 ATH. As a result, if the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect a Higher High (new ATH), on a minimum 112000 estimate. If the price gets rejected on the 4H MA50 however, we expect a Double Bottom test of the 98000 level (or slightly below), similar to those of December 23 and January 13. The reason that both scenarios are plausible is the fact that they both got their 4H RSI oversold (<30.00) and then rebounded. The above show that even in the event of a 96000 Low, BTC is a buy even on the current levels, as once again we are closer to the technical bottom than the Cycle's Top. The technical upside remains enormous in 2025. So which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
3
Cake supply/demand zones with volumeCake touched the nearest demand zone and bounced back as BTC sell-off was intensive but short. Might be re-visiting this zone and even lover to 1.664. All depends on the general market condition and mood. The altcoin season is slowly approaching. This time it takes BTC dominance to climb higher much longer due to competitors among alts and general world economy condition. During alt season might be surprisingly outperforming competitors but it will not last long. This coin is still not made for long-term holding rather for short-term trading. Lower highs and higher lows are narrowing the corridor for upside breakout with strong potential.
by Suhulo
Did Chinese AI Company Deepseek Cause Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash? The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, with prices often experiencing sharp swings in short periods.1 Recently, Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, experienced a notable price drop, sparking discussions and speculation about the potential causes.2 Among the various theories circulating, one has gained particular attention: the suggestion that the price crash was triggered by the emergence of a Chinese AI company called Deepseek.3 Deepseek: A New Player in the AI Arena Deepseek is a relatively new player in the artificial intelligence (AI) field, but it has quickly garnered attention for its advancements in AI technology.4 The company has been developing cutting-edge AI models, particularly in the realm of large language models (LLMs), which are designed to understand and generate human language.5 Deepseek's emergence has raised concerns among some investors and analysts, who fear that the company's advancements could disrupt the existing AI landscape, potentially challenging the dominance of U.S.-based tech companies.6 These concerns have seemingly spilled over into the cryptocurrency market, with some suggesting a link between Deepseek's rise and Bitcoin's recent price decline.7 The Alleged Connection: Market Sentiment and Uncertainty The primary argument linking Deepseek to the Bitcoin price crash revolves around market sentiment and uncertainty.8 The theory suggests that the emergence of a strong competitor in the AI space, particularly one from China, has created a sense of unease among investors.9 This unease has led to a risk-off sentiment, prompting investors to sell off their holdings in various assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.10 The reasoning behind this theory is that investors may be concerned about the potential implications of Deepseek's advancements. Some may fear that the company's technology could lead to job displacement in certain sectors, while others may worry about the geopolitical implications of China gaining a stronger foothold in the AI industry. These concerns, it is argued, have contributed to a negative market sentiment, which has ultimately impacted Bitcoin's price.11 Analyzing the Claim: Correlation vs. Causation While the theory linking Deepseek to the Bitcoin price crash is intriguing, it's crucial to approach it with a critical eye. It's important to distinguish between correlation and causation. Just because two events occur around the same time does not necessarily mean that one caused the other. In this case, it's possible that both Deepseek's emergence and the Bitcoin price crash are coincidental. There could be other factors at play that contributed to the price decline, such as: • Profit-taking: After a period of price appreciation, some investors may have decided to take profits, leading to a sell-off and a subsequent price drop. • Market manipulation: The cryptocurrency market is still relatively unregulated, making it susceptible to manipulation.12 Large sell orders or coordinated "pump and dump" schemes could have contributed to the price decline. • Broader economic factors: Global economic conditions, such as inflation or interest rate hikes, can also impact investor sentiment and lead to sell-offs in various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. The Role of Media and Speculation It's also important to consider the role of media and speculation in amplifying the alleged connection between Deepseek and the Bitcoin price crash. News articles and social media discussions may have contributed to the spread of this theory, even if there is limited evidence to support it. In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, rumors and speculation can quickly influence market sentiment. It's crucial to be discerning about the information consumed and to avoid jumping to conclusions based on limited evidence. Conclusion: A Complex Picture with No Definitive Answer The question of whether Deepseek caused the Bitcoin price crash is a complex one with no definitive answer. While the theory linking the two events is intriguing, it's essential to consider other factors that could have contributed to the price decline. It's possible that Deepseek's emergence played a role in shaping market sentiment, but it's unlikely to be the sole cause of the price crash. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and it's crucial to consider the broader context when analyzing price movements. As the AI industry continues to evolve and the cryptocurrency market matures, it's likely that we will see more instances of speculation and theories linking seemingly disparate events. It's important to approach such claims with a critical mindset, to distinguish between correlation and causation, and to consider the broader context before drawing conclusions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin's Bullish Breakout: Targeting $126,500! Introduction: Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a significant price surge, reaching new heights. For those new to cryptocurrency trading, understanding this movement is crucial. In this post, we'll break down the current BTC price action and discuss potential trading strategies. Current BTC Price: As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $101,254.00 USD. Key Levels to Watch: Support Level: $94,500 USD Resistance Level: $105,000 USD Market Sentiment: The market is currently bullish, with increased trading volume and positive news surrounding Bitcoin's adoption. Potential Price Target: Based on the "Cup and Handle" pattern, a technical analysis chart pattern, the projected price target for Bitcoin is $126,500 USD. Trading Strategy for Beginners: 1. Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the price retraces to the $94,500 support level. 2. Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the $92,000 level to manage risk. 3. Take-Profit: Aim for a take-profit at the $126,500 target. Important Note: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. It's essential to conduct thorough research and only invest funds you can afford to lose. Conclusion: Bitcoin's recent price action presents potential trading opportunities. By understanding key levels and technical indicators, beginners can navigate the market more effectively. Always remember to trade responsibly and stay informed. Let's Discuss! What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's current price action? Do you agree with the projected target of $126,500? Share your insights and let's engage in a constructive discussion! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. By inviting readers to share their thoughts and engage in a discussion, you can foster a more interactive environment and encourage traders to participate in the comments section.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ProcessAndIntercept
4
BTC/USD Local work. Clamping 2.37%/18 days. Stop-Loss zonesLogarithm. Time frame 1 day. Local trend. Clamping the price in a narrow range of 2.37% for 18 days. Stop-Loss zones (market fuel), due to which the impulse will occur, was shown on the chart. Previously showed more than once such trading situations and their solutions, the sense of such manipulation in such zones. I will not repeat it. In your work to observe the risk management, it is advisable not to work with large leverage because there can be significant volatility in both directions. Instead of a logical profit in the trend, you will get a loss on the spot. 237/18 A line chart to understand the trend direction of this zone. The previous idea of a secondary trend of two months ago, which shows this zone 1618 0 BTC/USD Secondary trend. Double bottom zone. The main bitcoin trend (almost all of it). The time frame is 1 month. BTC/USD Main trend. Cycles. Halving BTC. Surrender zones. This idea of a long-term trend shows capitulation zones in secondary trends and the percentage of price decrease from the highs. Bitcoin's halving. Cyclicality. Note that unlike past cycles, the price has been under the uptrend line zone for a very long time.
by SpartaBTC
51
BTC LONG TP:111,000 25-01-2025Once again, the price has experienced a period of rest and consolidation, currently displaying a bullish pattern on the 4-hour chart. It is expected that this behavior will materialize within 2 days, with a take-profit target of 111,000; otherwise, the position should be considered invalid. It's important to keep in mind that there could be manipulative movements in the market, so it's advisable to adjust your stop according to your risk management strategy. Don't forget to follow me for more updates and analysis.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ReyDragon21
TRUMP | Donald Trump signs RADICAL Crypto Executive OrderPOTUS Donald Trump has issued an executive order aimed at creating a streamlined regulatory framework for digital assets, with a focus on cryptocurrencies. One of the key elements of the order is the creation of a National Digital Asset Stockpile. This initiative is intended to establish a strategic reserve of digital assets to enhance economic security and encourage innovation in the sector. Additionally, the order calls for the formation of a specialized working group to develop a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. This group will be led by David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto Czar, and will include senior officials from the Treasury, the U.S. SEC, and other key agencies. Notably, the executive order explicitly bans federal agencies from initiating or supporting the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), maintaining a focus on decentralized cryptocurrencies. The creation of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets is expected to significantly influence the future of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, stablecoins, and other blockchain technologies. The order also reverses previous directives from the prior administration that hindered innovation in digital assets. These outdated frameworks had prompted many U.S.-based crypto companies to relocate to more favorable jurisdictions, such as the UAE or Singapore. President Trump's recent executive order is likely to have significant effects on both Bitcoin and Trumpcoin. Bitcoin: This pro-crypto stance including the establishment of a National Digital Asset Stockpile and the creation of a federal regulatory framework, could encourage investor confidence in Bitcoin. This supportive regulatory environment may lead to increased institutional adoption and public trust, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher. However, the market's reaction has been mixed and we're not seeing an immediate result reflecting in the price just yet. Trumpcoin: Trumpcoin could experience heightened interest due to the executive order. The administration's favorable view on digital assets might attract investors to Trumpcoin, anticipating that it will benefit from increased visibility and potential use cases. _____________________________ BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1