Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced of the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 81,264.56
1st Support: 78,172.96
1st Resistance: 86,012.36
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1-BTCUSD
Next Volatility Period: Around April 5 (April 4-6)
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
A new candle has been created as a new month begins.
The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024.
As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows.
Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone.
The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86.
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(1D chart)
If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed.
If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th.
If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again.
In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone.
You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises.
In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond.
As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing.
This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan.
This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges.
Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range.
In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rejecting The BreakdownDoes this big rejection bar mean the selling trend is over?
I doubt it.
In my opinion and experience, big rejection bars like this reflect a critical price level where the markets will attempt to REVISIT in the near future.
Normally, when we get a big rejection bar, like today, we are testing a critical support/resistance level in price and you can see the difference between the SPY, DIA and QQQ charts.
The QQQ price data is already below the critical support level and barely trying to get back above the rejection level. Whereas the SPY and DIA are still above the rejection lows.
I see this as a technology driven breakdown and because of the continued CAPTIAL SHIFT, we may move into a broader WAVE-C breakdown of this current trend.
I see the SPY already completing a Wave-A and Wave-B. If this breakdown plays out like I expect, we'll see a bigger breakdown in price targeting $525-535, then possibly reaching $495-505 as the immediate ultimate low.
If you follow my research, there is a much lower level near $465-475 that is still a likely downward target level, but we'll have to see how price reacts over the next 2+ days before we can determine if that level is still a valid target.
Watch for more support near recent lows tomorrow, then a potential breakdown in the SPY/QQQ/DIA.
Get some.
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BTC - 1H Clean Liquidity Hunt & Bearish Continuation BINANCE:BTCUSDT - 1H Update
Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend on the 4H and daily timeframes. After hunting the liquidity above the resistance zone, price began to drop exactly from our shared short entry at 83,700—and it's now on the move toward deeper targets.
🔹 Key Insights:
BTC grabbed liquidity just above resistance before reversing.
Price is now likely heading toward the liquidation zone below the support, aligning with the broader downtrend.
This setup offered a perfect short opportunity from $83,700, with clearly defined targets and risk.
🎯 Last Target: 80,200
💡 Congrats to all who followed our signal! The move is unfolding as expected.
📊 Stay locked in for the next big setups—follow for precise, real-time trade ideas! 🔔
BTCUSD: Bollinger squeeze paving the way for $160k.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.017, MACD = 2013.300, ADX = 45.410) and started last week a Bollinger Bands squeeze process. This squeeze has been present inside the 2.5 year Channel Up every time after it bottomed. Only July-August 2024 made a slightly lower low because the squeeze process turned out to be longer. Even in the event, what follows all Bollinger squeezes is an expansion rally, especially after a 1W STOCH RSI Bullish Cross and the pattern shows that by this September, we can reach $160,000.
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BTC is expected to hit 85000-86000 again, or even higherBTC has once again built a strong double bottom structural support in the 82000-81000 zone. BTC is likely to continue to rise. Once it breaks through the short-term resistance area near 83600, BTC may usher in a wave of accelerated rise and has the potential to continue to the 85000-86000 zone.
So we can still go long on BTC in the 82500-81500 zone. In addition, once BTC rises as expected, it is likely to grab the market share of gold, so it may also accelerate the decline of gold to a certain extent. This is a point we must be careful about next.
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ITS TIME , FINAL WAVE FOR BITCOIN HAS BEGAN The final wave for Bitcoin has officially started; 200k by September 2025 is the call. So far, since October 2024, we have been getting every macro move correct. Going to avoid repeating a lot of content from the previous two TAs; check it out below.
The lower high on the RSI called the momentum shift on this one; it was clear.
December 17th, 2024, calling for a pullback down to 82k for wave 4 to complete; it hit 77k, pretty close.
So last time, I was wrestling with two different dates for a cycle top; the first one was May 2025, and the second was September 2025.
It is clear to me now that mid to late September 2025, Bitcoin will peak at around 200k. It could go slightly higher, but the 185-200k region has a higher outcome.
So, I've been using this small-time Fib, and last time when we hit the 0.618, it was the breakout week for Bitcoin from the long range. We're here again; this week is the big pivot and start of wave 5.
The hash ribbon has confirmed a buy signal, and more importantly, it flashed buy in my Time Fibonacci week. Amazing. If you've been with me for years, you already know that this is the best signal for Bitcoin there is. It is so damn good; this gives so much more weight to my thesis.
Stars seem to align again. They constantly try to shake you out; this is the game. Who is going to fade the hash ribbon buy? It's been the easiest play time and time again.
Seriously, though, for just a moment—are you really going to fade the hash ribbon? :)
Bitcoin's Rocky Quarter: Tariffs, Whales, and Volatility Loom
Bitcoin's first quarter of 2025 has concluded with a whimper, marking its worst Q1 performance since the tumultuous bear market of 2018.1 While gold has surged to record highs, fueled by geopolitical tensions and US trade tariffs, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum, leaving traders bracing for potential further volatility. This week’s preview reveals a confluence of factors that could significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.
A Disappointing First Quarter
The initial months of 2025 were anticipated to be a period of growth for Bitcoin, particularly with the anticipation surrounding the halving event. However, the cryptocurrency failed to deliver on these expectations. Instead, it experienced a period of stagnation and even decline, contrasting sharply with the robust performance of traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Several factors contributed to this underwhelming performance. The escalating trade tensions, particularly the US tariffs, have injected uncertainty into global markets, diverting capital towards established safe-haven assets.
Tariffs and Trade Tensions: A Persistent Headwind
The US imposition of trade tariffs has emerged as a significant headwind for Bitcoin. These tariffs, designed to protect domestic industries, have disrupted global trade flows and created a climate of economic uncertainty.2 Investors, wary of potential market disruptions, have sought refuge in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which has historically outperformed during periods of economic instability.
The impact of these tariffs extends beyond immediate market reactions. They signal a potential shift towards protectionist policies, which could have long-term implications for global trade and investment flows. Bitcoin, often touted as a decentralized and borderless asset, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global trade and capital flows.
Whale Activity and Market Manipulation
Adding to the complexity of the market is the activity of large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales."3 These entities, possessing significant amounts of Bitcoin, can exert considerable influence on market prices through large buy or sell orders. Recent observations suggest increased whale activity, potentially contributing to the volatility and price fluctuations.
Concerns about market manipulation have also resurfaced. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin, while a core strength, also presents challenges in terms of regulation and oversight. This lack of centralized control can create opportunities for manipulation, leading to price swings that are not necessarily reflective of fundamental market dynamics.
Bitcoin Bears Tighten Grip: Where’s the Next Support?
The recent price action indicates that Bitcoin bears are tightening their grip. The failure to sustain upward momentum has emboldened sellers, leading to a downward trend. Traders are now closely monitoring key support levels, anticipating potential further declines.
Identifying these support levels is crucial for understanding the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price. Technical analysis, using tools like Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages, can help traders identify potential areas of support where buying pressure may emerge. However, the volatile nature of Bitcoin makes it challenging to predict these levels with certainty.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: A Comparative Analysis
The stark contrast between gold's recent performance and Bitcoin's struggles has reignited the debate about their respective roles as safe-haven assets. Gold, with its long history and established reputation, has benefited from the current climate of uncertainty.
However, Bitcoin proponents argue that its decentralized nature and limited supply make it a superior store of value in the long term. The comparison between the two assets highlights the evolving nature of safe-haven assets and the growing acceptance of digital currencies. The quote "Gold has taken 26 years to 10X. Bitcoin has taken 4 years to 10X" shows the potential for rapid growth, but also its volatility.
Looking Ahead: Volatility and Uncertainty
The coming week promises to be a period of significant volatility for Bitcoin. Traders should brace for potential price swings, driven by a combination of factors, including:
• Continued Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade disputes and potential for further tariffs are likely to continue to impact market sentiment.
• Whale Activity: Large buy or sell orders from whales could trigger significant price fluctuations.
• Regulatory Developments: Any regulatory announcements or policy changes could have a substantial impact on Bitcoin's price.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Inflation data, interest rate decisions, and other macroeconomic indicators will continue to influence investor behavior.
•
In conclusion, Bitcoin's disappointing first quarter has set the stage for a period of heightened volatility. The confluence of trade tensions, whale activity, and market manipulation creates a challenging environment for traders. While the long-term potential of Bitcoin remains a subject of debate, the immediate future is marked by uncertainty and the need for caution.
BITCOIN - Long Trade Idea - We have Wave 3 Confirmation...We have had confirmation of Wave 3 In Progress.
I will be initially looking to target the .786 retracement back to the highs.
Check out the related videos down below for the full coverage of this trade.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Target $102,886
Stop: $81,274
BITCOIN - Long Trade Idea Update - We Could See One More Low...In this video, I discuss why Bitcoin may still make another low before the Wave 2 correction is fully complete.
Upon closer examination of Wave iv in the previous Wave 5 correction, it appears the level where Wave iv ended was slightly miscalculated.
Technically, Bitcoin should have dipped below the perceived low, but either its strength has prevented this, or the ongoing correction is nearing completion.
The key level to watch is $82,445—if Bitcoin breaks above this, we should continue higher.
However, it’s more likely that we first dip below $81,274 before experiencing a strong upward move.
Pay close attention when Bitcoin makes another low, as the reversal could be sharp, potentially piercing through $82,445, which would confirm the trend shift.
If we make a new low then I would suggest price would turn back up after tagging $81,071.
Bitcoin's Next Move - $90k Surge Before a Major Drop?Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential rally towards $90k, but could this be a trap before a deeper correction to $45k?
What's your take?
Will CRYPTOCAP:BTC reach new highs first, or is the drop coming sooner?
Share your thoughts!
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend.
I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days.
I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend.
In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup.
Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months.
BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range.
As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL.
Get some.
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Grasp the trend and analyze the full range of BTC longsTechnical analysis: Based on in-depth technical analysis, the current BTCUSD decline has slowed down, and there are signs of building double bottom support. The 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average form a golden cross, the MACD indicator continues to strengthen and the bar chart continues to expand. As BTCUSD stops falling, market sentiment is gradually warming up, institutional funds continue to flow in, fundamental support is solid, and the upward momentum may gradually strengthen. It is the right time to go long.
BTCUSD operation strategy: Go long in the 82500-81500 area. Target 83000-84000
Trading discipline: 1. Don't blindly follow the trend: Don't be swayed by market sentiment and other people's opinions, operate according to your own operation plan, market information is complicated, and blindly following the trend is easy to fall into the dilemma of chasing ups and downs.
2. During the transaction, we will continue to pay attention to news and technical changes, inform us in time if there are changes, strictly implement trading strategies and trading disciplines, move forward steadily in the volatile market, and achieve stable asset appreciation.
BITCOIN - Wave C In Progress - Wave 2 Ended At 81,274...According to the latest count, Wave 2 of Wave C appears to have completed at the recent lows. I’ll be posting a video soon to explain my analysis.
From here, we should see a steady price increase.
There's no target yet—we need a confirmed break above 88,788 for more certainty—but this count offers an opportunity to enter near the lows for those willing to take the trade.
Stay tuned for the video!
BITCOIN - Wave 3 of Wave C In Progress - Wave 2 Breakdown...In this video, I break down why I posted the earlier chart (linked below).
After studying this pattern for hours, I finally decoded the Wave 2 correction for Wave C—just in time to take a long trade at support.
A solid protective stop is around $81,274, while a break above $82,759 offers partial confirmation.
The key confirmation level, however, is $88,788. Since that’s still quite far, AriasWave allows for early entries if the analysis proves accurate. Given the large 1-2 formation, I anticipate price moving close to all-time highs, but I’ll keep you updated along the way.
Can we be optimistic that this will come true?( road to 300k )I might be wrong and this might never happen, but it might come true From a technical perspective!!!
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The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Mid-February, Btc.d peaks and the altcoin rally may start.Trust fibonacci.
It is clear from Fibonacci extensions that we are close to the peaks in Bitcoin dominance.
Fibonacci circles also give us ideas of both resistances and time periods.
In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance will peak in mid-February and the altcoin bullrun may begin. Bitcoin dominance will bottom at the end of May 2026.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Sell Limit Trade IdeaTRADENATION:BTCUSD Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern, confirmed by a breakdown below 89,199, signalling potential for further downside. Additionally, a bearish flag breakdown in recent sessions suggests continuation lower.
This morning’s gap down highlights market weakness, but a fill of this gap at $83,543 may offer an ideal entry for short positions.
Trade Details
Entry (Sell Limit): 83,543
Stop Loss: 87,992
Take Profit: 70,613
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.9:1
Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $83,543 (Entry Point)
R2: $85,819
R3: $88,767
Support:
S1 : 76,590
S2: 70,531
S3: 63,411
Technical & Fundamental Factors
✅ Double Top Formation – Breakdown below 89,199 confirms bearish momentum.
✅ Bearish Flag Breakdown – Indicates continuation of the current downtrend.
✅ Gap Lower – Signals further weakness; gap fill at 83,543 offers a selling opportunity.
⚠️ Smart Money Not Buying – Commercial participants are selling Bitcoin, suggesting a lack of institutional support.
Summary
This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity at 83,543, targeting a move down to 70,613, with a stop at 87,992. The combination of technical breakdowns and weak institutional demand supports a bearish outlook.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin - Where will Bitcoin go?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again.
The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
Since March 14, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained a positive trend. For seven consecutive days, these ETFs have recorded net capital inflows without any outflows. This marks the first instance in 2025 of such a consistent streak of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
The assets under management (AUM) of actively managed ETFs in the United States have surged over the past two years, surpassing $1 trillion—a more than threefold increase. This remarkable growth indicates a rising investor interest in strategies beyond index-based funds.
Bitcoin had an overall positive week, whereas the S&P 500 and global equity markets suffered declines due to ongoing concerns over tariffs and persistent inflation. The S&P 500 closed the week lower, dropping to $5,580—just 1.2% above its recent low from March 13. Meanwhile, despite experiencing pullbacks, Bitcoin remains 9.3% above its previous low of $77,000, recorded on March 10.
Strategy, following its latest acquisition, now holds 2.41% of the total global Bitcoin supply.Given that a significant portion of Bitcoin has either been lost or remains dormant in wallets, this stake represents nearly 4% of the actively circulating supply.
About a month and a half ago, Eric Trump, son of former President Donald Trump, tweeted that it was the perfect time to buy Ethereum. Since that tweet, however, Ethereum’s price has dropped by approximately 35%. This highlights the risk of making investment decisions solely based on endorsements from well-known individuals.
Trump Media & Technology Group, owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, has announced a partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch a range of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This includes a multi-crypto ETF (the first of its kind) and ETPs comprising digital assets and securities from various sectors, including the energy industry. Crypto.com will provide the underlying technology, custodial solutions, and crypto asset management services.
In the second half of March, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, reigniting optimism among traders. However, historical analysis suggests that the crypto market often moves contrary to mainstream expectations. When bullish sentiment—such as the phrase “To the Moon”—becomes widespread on social media, it may signal an impending price drop. Conversely, when negative sentiments like “Crypto is dead” or “Bitcoin is a scam” become dominant, this could indicate a potential price surge.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to market sentiment and exercise caution in their decision-making. Recognizing that markets may move against the prevailing consensus can help in formulating more strategic investment approaches.
BTC/USDT: Range-Bound Movement with Rebound Potential from Key SThe BTC/USDT market recently tested last week’s high but pulled back after encountering resistance near the 89,000 level. On the daily timeframe, the latest candle formed a doji, signaling weakening selling pressure.
The price has reached the two-week low, where underlying liquidity may trigger a bounce—especially around the psychological 80,000 level. With the market consolidating after recent sell-offs, a move toward the 85,000 area is possible. A monthly doji close is also anticipated, reflecting the broader indecision. The next upside target is the resistance zone around 84,000