Altseason will official start this coming Monday. Are you ready?So here we are 2 and a half years later. Business as usual. What an amazing journey it's been.
You know the drill, bloody day Starting Sunday in a few hours, Monday starts with a big explosion, then, sell in May and go away. Although watch out for Time Magazine's and Roaring Kitty's hints, January 9th til April 20th bullrun.
The blow off top of a century before a great depression.
Will Bitcoin stop at 60k? or will the model break and have Bitcoin reach 10 to 20k?
Comments, feedback and input is highly welcome and appreciated.
Enjoy the banana party.
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Navigating Selling Pressure and BullishBitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, currently finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex interplay of selling pressure from long-term holders and several bullish indicators suggesting a potential resurgence. This article delves into the key factors influencing Bitcoin's price, including long-term holder behavior, exchange inflows and miner outflows, hashrate dynamics, and the influence of Bitcoin whales, to assess its potential to reclaim the coveted $100,000 mark.
Critical Support and Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure
Bitcoin is currently facing critical support levels, meaning that its price is approaching a point where a significant drop could trigger further selling and potentially lead to a more substantial correction. One of the primary factors contributing to this pressure is the selling activity of long-term Bitcoin holders. These holders, who have typically held their Bitcoin for extended periods, are beginning to distribute their holdings, adding to the selling pressure in the market. This behavior can be attributed to various factors, including profit-taking after previous price surges, concerns about macroeconomic conditions, or a shift in investment strategies. Monitoring the behavior of long-term holders is crucial for understanding the overall market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Exchange Inflow and Miner Outflow Dynamics
Analyzing Bitcoin exchange inflows and miner outflows provides valuable insights into market dynamics. A drop in exchange inflows suggests reduced selling pressure, as fewer Bitcoins are being deposited onto exchanges for trading.1 Conversely, a decrease in miner outflows indicates that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling it immediately, further reducing selling pressure. The recent drop in both exchange inflows and miner outflows is a positive sign, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and potentially paving the way for a price recovery. The expectation is that this reduced selling pressure, combined with other bullish factors, could contribute to Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level.
Bitcoin Hashrate Reaching New All-Time Highs
The Bitcoin hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, has recently reached new all-time highs.2 This is a significant indicator of the network's strength and security. A higher hashrate makes the Bitcoin network more resistant to attacks and demonstrates the continued commitment of miners to the ecosystem. While a high hashrate doesn't directly translate to immediate price increases, it reflects the long-term health and stability of the Bitcoin network, which can indirectly contribute to positive market sentiment and attract new investors. This robust network infrastructure provides a strong foundation for future price appreciation and supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000.
The Influence of Bitcoin Whales
Bitcoin whales, entities holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, exert significant influence on market dynamics.3 Recent data suggests that Bitcoin whales control a significant portion of exchange volume, highlighting their ability to impact price movements. Analyzing their selling patterns is crucial for understanding potential market shifts. If whales begin accumulating Bitcoin, it could signal a bullish trend, while continued selling could exacerbate downward pressure. Understanding whale behavior is essential for navigating the complexities of the Bitcoin market and anticipating potential price swings. The observation that whales control 94.5% of exchange volume underscores their influence and the importance of monitoring their activity for future market predictions.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000?
The question on everyone's mind is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000 mark. While the selling pressure from long-term holders presents a challenge, several bullish factors offer hope for a price recovery. The drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows suggests reduced selling pressure, while the record-high hashrate demonstrates the strength and security of the Bitcoin network. The behavior of Bitcoin whales will also play a crucial role in determining future price movements.
Reaching $100,000 will require a combination of factors, including a decrease in selling pressure, renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional investors, and positive developments in the broader cryptocurrency market. If these conditions are met, Bitcoin has the potential to overcome current challenges and reach new heights.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate balance between selling pressure and bullish indicators. While long-term holder selling and critical support levels present challenges, the drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows, coupled with the record-high hashrate, offer positive signals. The influence of Bitcoin whales adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics.
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 remains to be seen, but the interplay of these factors will ultimately determine its future price trajectory. Careful monitoring of these key indicators is essential for understanding the evolving landscape of the Bitcoin market and making informed investment decisions.
BTC - 4H Consolidation LikelyThe current low market volume is typical during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, as institutional players and many retail traders reduce activity. This reduction in liquidity often leads to lower volatility and smaller price movements. In this scenario, BINANCE:BTCUSDT appears to be consolidating within a well-defined range, as highlighted by the resistance zone around $99,000 and the support zone near $92,000.
With minimal external market drivers expected until trading activity picks up after the holidays, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is likely to remain range-bound. This sideways movement aligns with historical behavior during low-volume periods, where breakouts or significant trends are less frequent. Traders should consider this low-volatility environment when planning short-term strategies.
GOLD- Levels for Monday 6th- Friday 11th JanuaryHope this benefits you guys. This is not typical S&R or S&D. These levels are based on volume profile and really powerful. NOTE, don't treat these levels as buy and sell points. You will still need to have context behind your trade and use these levels as a reference point. one of the strategy I use is, volume profile along with cumulative delta and footprint. Look for shift in value, delta divergence etc. and when price reaches one of those levels, use footprint for entry. Bottom line is, you have to have context behind your trade. Without context, you are hunting in the dark. Have fun and enjoy
Movement #MOVE Price / Crypto / Technical Analysis StudyThe transparency in the graphics in this image is quite clear, I am sharing the example for educational purposes, I have been trading in these farms many times. You can make it a classic, the red horizontal line is a strong resistance area that has been tried many times, it is the first area that must be crossed in order to say that the price is rising. The green horizontal line is the current movement support of the price and its closing below the level reduces the price to the test of the yellow line, the main important demand area, and when it cannot find sufficient demand in the yellow line, the price continues its downward movement for exploration and the price tags in the round circle become the minimum target areas.
Inverted Head & Shoulders, possible correction to 78k !While the news are fundamentally good and BTC is poised for higher highs, especially with Trump taking power, there is a fear about chartist analysis until then. Indeed, we can see an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern ending on a daily basis, which could cause BTC to correct to around 78k in the short term. However, if this scenario does not materialize, we could see a btc looking for 120k quite quickly.
Bitcoin: time to short!Over the past several days, we’ve seen a rise of more than 6%, which has coincided with a rally in the stock market. Bitcoin is now trading above all moving averages and near the upper Bollinger Bands line — not the most promising signal for further upside. Additionally, we observe that volumes are calming down after the recent spike.
As we move into the start of the year, there may still be significant challenges ahead that have yet to materialize.
Moreover, there is a resistance zone, along with a key Fibonacci level, in the 98-100k range, making it difficult to break above this level.
This suggests that a short-term short position might be a good option. However, it remains fundamentally risky, as the prevailing sentiment still favors buying and holding.
Your sincerely,
Mister iM
Support around 97461.86 is the key
Hello, traders.
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When USDT is moving sideways, USDC seems to be leading the coin market in the short term by gapping up.
For the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must remain below 55.01 or show a downward trend.
USDT dominance is expected to touch around 2.84 at the most.
If it touches around 2.84 and starts to rise, the coin market is expected to turn into a downtrend.
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, a sharp decline is expected in the coin market.
After that, the trend of the coin market is expected to be determined depending on whether it is supported or resisted around 4.97.
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
The point to watch is whether NAS100USD can rise above the support zone and be maintained.
The high point boundary zone is likely to be applied as a resistance zone, but if it breaks through upward, it is likely to create a new upward wave.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
If it receives support near 97461.86, it is expected to turn into a short-term uptrend.
However, USDT must show a gap-up trend.
If not, it will fall again.
You should also check if the BW and DOM indicators rise above 0 and if the candle's Body color turns green.
Confirming support is a tedious and difficult task that requires checking the movement for at least 1-3 days.
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The point of interest is whether it can receive support near 101947.24 around January 10, the next volatility period.
If it falls, it is important to see whether it supports the important support and resistance area of 93576.0-94742.35.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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ADA on high time frame
"Regarding ADA on the high timeframe, in line with my recent analysis, the price is advancing towards higher levels. If you decide to join me in buying for holding or trading, now presents a favorable opportunity to increase your volume near $1. Please ensure to prioritize risk management in your decisions."
WOO ANALYSIS📊 #WOO Analysis
✅As we can see that #WOO was consolidating in a small range but right now there is a breakout or major resistance level. We would see a good bullish movement in #WOO
👀Current Price: $0.2490
🚀 Target Price: $0.2880
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #WOO price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#WOO #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
BTC on high timeframe
"Hello traders,
Regarding BTC on the high timeframe, my recent analysis successfully reached the target zone with price signals indicating a potential rise. I anticipate the price to reach $104,000 after completing its pullback to the mentioned point.
Based on your strategy for holding or trading BTC, consider taking action to reduce risk."
How to outperform Microstrategy in 2025🚀 Michael Saylor vs. Smarter Bitcoin Buying
Michael Saylor has driven waves of excitement with his massive Bitcoin purchases. While it’s fascinating that a software company like NASDAQ:MSTR is using Bitcoin to boost its stock price, that’s not our focus today.
saylortracker.com
Our goal: Outperform Saylor and make better Bitcoin purchases.
📊 Current Market Outlook
📉 60-Day Cycle Low:
Bitcoin appears to be at a 60-day cycle low—a fantastic buying opportunity!
However, don’t hold past the 3-day cycle high.
🔮 What the Cycles Are Telling Us
- 2-Week Cycle: Recently reversed to the downside, signaling potential for further declines.
- 1-Week Cycle: Still declining and likely needs another month to reset.
- 60-Day Cycle: Historically bearish before completing a 24-week cycle.
💡 Key Takeaways
1️⃣ Bitcoin may need a breather before its next big move.
2️⃣ The bull market is intact, with a price range of $130–150K still achievable.
3️⃣ This is unlikely to happen in the first two months of 2025.
⏳ Patience Pays Off
I know you’re eager for gains, and soon enough, your altcoins will have their moment to shine**. 🌟
You’ll be sending screenshots of your portfolio to your friends again, trust me. 😉
📅 Most Probable Scenario
Bitcoin tends to move in 24-week cycles. On the weekly timeframe, we may see further bearish action before a reset, providing even better buying opportunities.
Patience is key—trade smarter, not harder!
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research! 📖
SIMPLE CHANNEL AND SINEWAVE ANALYSIS PREDICTS BITCOIN TOPS DATESSo simple, this is a little tongue in cheek - but refute it - why not? it accurately anchors historically bitcoin tops and associated dates and with this historical alignment - projects future tops and associated dates - It also includes optimum inter-cycle buy zones (anything under zero) and with 4 equidistant channels shows areas of significant price action.
Possibly the best system I have ever come up with for BitcoinThis is for my wealth accumulation and it is not in any way financial advice. If you follow this and lose your shirt that's on you!
There is a cycle embedded into the Bitcoin space. We all know it and we all witness it.
The halving cycle is real and it is a feature not a bug.
For my sanity, I am sick of seeing people I know buying the FOMO tops and then selling on the way down to the bottom or holding through massive periods of drawdown. So I am not going to do that.
The system is simple.
Setup, wait for the next most likely top in the market before the next most likely drawdown period.
QT4 2013
QT4 2017
QT4 2021
QT4 2025 <-- Next possible top in the market
From October 2025 monitor the daily price action looking for a close below the 50-period SMA
When triggered Sell Everything.
QT1 2015
QT1 2019
QT1 2023
QT1 2027 <-- Next possible bottom in the market
From January 2027 monitor the daily price action looking for a close above the 50-period SMA
When triggered Buy Everything back.