$BTC analysisKey Levels:
Upper Order Block (OB): This area is located exactly between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels and serves as a critical resistance zone where sellers are likely to enter.
Descending Trendline: This trendline intersects with the order block, further reinforcing its role as dynamic resistance.
Lower Order Block (OB+): Found near the 0.236 Fibonacci level, it acts as a strong support zone.
Bearish Scenario:
Triggers for a Downward Move:
Price reacts to the order block between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels.
The descending trendline coincides with the resistance area, intensifying selling pressure.
Steps of a Potential Decline:
Step 1: Price faces rejection at the resistance area (OB).
Step 2: The initial support around 97,944 (0.382) will be tested.
Step 3: If this level breaks, the price may drop further towards 95,482 (0.236 Fibonacci) and the lower order block.
Final Step: Continued selling pressure could lead to a deeper decline toward the 91,500 support zone.
Updated Key Levels:
Upper Order Block (OB): Located between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci (97,944 - 99,934).
Lower Order Block (OB+): Positioned near 0.236 Fibonacci (95,482).
Conclusion:
The area between 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a critical zone for sellers. If the price fails to break this resistance, there is a strong likelihood of a decline toward lower support levels.
Breakout Probability: If strong bullish volume and momentum push through the upper order block, the bearish scenario will be invalidated.
1-BTCUSD
BTC/USD: Break Out or Pull Back?The BTC/USD chart shows a critical technical setup, with the price testing a descending trendline near the 200-period Moving Average (MA). This convergence indicates a pivotal moment for market direction. A breakout above the trendline and MA could signal bullish momentum, while rejection might lead to a pullback toward support levels. #btcusd #cryptocurrency
Long Story short for BTCHistory hasn't failed yet, so the four-year cycle is still intact until it isn't. I have stretched this chart out for the next couple of years so that you can get a good idea of where the potential bottom will be during the next bear market. I plan to accumulate as much as possible the closer it gets to 66k. If we do reach a 150-250k top this cycle then I will expect a bear market bottom between 66-76k. Watch my levels and use them as a guideline. Historically Bitcoin has NEVER returned to the price its low during the US election week:
2012 Election Week Low - $10
2016 Election Week Low - $700
2020 Election Week Low - $13,200
2024 Election Week Low - $66,800
that brings us to now... if this doesn't indicate the current market sentiment then I don't know what will. There's a reason why many genius economists are speculating a 1 million dollar bitcoin in the next 8 years.
Crypto Alpha Report (January 3)Good Friday to you, friends! As we head into the first weekend of the New Year, I want to focus on our bottom line and goals for 2025 - growing our wealth.
If you’re reading this, I’m going to assume that you’re not lounging on a beach in the Bahamas with millions in the bank, feeling set for the rest of your life with your most significant problem: how to structure your inheritance. I’m going to assume that, in one way or another, you’re focused on the grind and ‘making it.’
To that end, when we turn our eyes to our portfolios this year, we must constantly remind ourselves of the age-old adage: ‘Nobody ever went broke taking profits.’
From 2021 to 2024, I round-tripped Ampleforth (AMP), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), Blockstack (STX), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC). As you know, I’m perfectly fine round-tripping Bitcoin and have held onto my sats since I began buying in 2016. The others, however, I look back and wish I had that capital freed up for my trading strategy or traditional markets over that period.
On December 5th, I sold 50% of all of my altcoin holdings, as they had appreciated significantly then. Despite 2025 being poised to be a tremendous year of growth for my portfolio, I saw an opportunity to cash out and took it.
As we embark on what might be an epic 2025, it’s important to remember that you’re not married to any of your investments. You don’t know the project's developers, you’re not an early-stage investor, and the only thing you stand to gain from the project's success is a greater ROI. DON’T GET EMOTIONALLY ATTACHED!
Remember why you entered the game in the first place - to grow your wealth rapidly. Not to become a mouthpiece for a token project or adopt a new religion. Put your faith in God and not in your project’s timeline, and focus on your prosperity.
It can be challenging psychologically and emotionally to press the red button in a booming market when prices are very high. The greed kicks in after a big green candle, and a swirl of emotions and thoughts starts racing through your head. Especially when you look at the USD number in your portfolio and imagine what it would look like after a few more big greenies.
It can be extremely challenging, if not impossible, to objectively determine to take profit when it is most advantageous. Your mind becomes your enemy, not your friend. This is why setting realistic goals and practical profit targets is paramount BEFORE you enter a position, not after. No target, no trade. No signal, no trade.
Do the work necessary to have a strategy, not a hope and a prayer that your random buy will go up. You can’t control the market, but you can control your actions.
Here’s to a bright New Year!
Crypto Market Update
Stablecoin Dominance
This metric has moved down 0.5% so far since the daily opening. It's not a lower low yet, so we remain within the consolidation range of the attempted breakout (panic selling). So far, I am optimistic about market continuation.
Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
It's playing out perfectly. Breaking down from its slight consolidation after another Lower High, currently making a new Lower Low. This is perfect for altcoin continuation.
Altcoin Price Performance Relative to Bitcoin
It is another strong day for altcoins, continuing to outperform Bitcoin’s price performance. Mirroring BTC+STables Dom., this breakout will be confirmed on a strong close and continuation into the weekend.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin put in a strong Daily Close yesterday, signaling potential strength to this bounce back. Caution is warranted, as we are still in the first ‘Bull Trap’ zone, but Daily Momentum and Meso Momentum continue pushing to the upside.
Trends
5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Neutral
D: Bullish
W: Bullish
Bitcoin has regained bullish momentum on every timeframe save for the 4H. So far, this is still just a Lower High, and price action is very similar to December 24 - 25th, where Bitcoin gave us the ‘Santa Rally’ and then swept back down to our current lows. However, Bitcoin has put in three distinct bottoms at $92,000, and the fundamentals align with a bullish early January into Trump’s inauguration.
Key Levels
POC: $95,563
VWAP: $96,641
Value Area Low: $94,489 - $95,424
Value Area High: $97,412 - $98,391
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $97,982 - $99,078
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $93,465 - $94,737
Bitcoin showed rejection yesterday at $97,500 - $97,600 as it entered a Low Volume Node. Currently, price has pulled back to yesterday’s VWAP high and is pushing back into that LVN with rising volume and bullish momentum. Price is expected to move to our next Liquidity Zone Above at $98,537.
Strategy:
Continue to hold longs accumulated at or below ~$95,000. If price retraces, look for long entries between $94,800 - $95,400 with targets of $97,100 - $98,500.
Join the Crypto Trading Academy for my full report, which includes altcoin analysis, early token opportunities, trading strategies, and custom indicators. You’ll also have access to our private community of traders and investors, enjoy weekly mentoring sessions, and have full access to our Academy Training, where we teach you to build your trading strategies with our proven methodology.
BTCUSD ShortOn the higher timeframe we've broken a down trendline and price has stalled out, not completing the Fibonacci sequence. We had a shallow retracement.
I see the potential for retracement to $77K to $79K with the potential for deeper retracement to $68K should we break the key level of support to the downside.
Bitcoin's Wave 5 of 5: The Road to 180k?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
#Bitcoin Fractal Potential (Log):
Bitcoin’s price movements have long fascinated analysts, particularly the recurring fractal patterns observed within actionary waves. These patterns, while intriguing, require careful interpretation, as they do not guarantee future outcomes but offer potential insights into the market’s trajectory.
This analysis focuses on wave 5 (W5) within the actionary waves 1 and 3. Historically, W5 has often been the longest wave in these sequences, suggesting a possibility for significant movement if the pattern persists. However, it’s essential to approach these projections with caution and flexibility.
The Wave Structure
In Elliott Wave Theory, actionary waves 1, 3, and 5 are motive waves, typically impulsive and aligned with the primary trend. Among these, wave 3 usually attracts speculative momentum, leading to significant price moves. Historical data suggests, in this case, that wave 5 has frequently outpaced waves 1 and 3, hinting at the potential for the final wave 5 to extend as well. This pattern, while intriguing, is not a fixed rule and should be treated as a hypothesis rather than a certainty.
Key Levels: W4 and Conservative Pivots
For wave 5 to develop, wave 4 (W4) must establish firm support. Currently, the critical level to watch is 86.8k. If Bitcoin holds this level, it could provide a foundation for further upward movement. Using conservative pivots, potential targets for W5 are estimated between 145k and 180k. These projections are based on historical extensions but remain speculative and contingent on market conditions.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above 86.8k and demonstrates impulsive upward moves, it increases the likelihood of hitting the projected targets. Look for strong rallies and corrective pullbacks as indicators of sustained momentum.
Bearish Case: A failure to maintain support at 86.8k could invalidate the W4 setup, suggesting a deeper correction or a shift in the wave structure. This would necessitate reevaluation and could indicate a prolonged consolidation phase.
Caveats and Confluence
While the projections are based on historical patterns, they are not deterministic. The potential alignment of area levels and Fibonacci zones adds confluence but does not eliminate uncertainty. Observing impulsive price movements and corrective behaviors at smaller degrees is crucial for confirmation.
It’s also important to remain aware of external market factors that can influence Bitcoin’s price action. These variables can disrupt even the most well-founded wave structures.
Final Thoughts
The potential for Bitcoin to reach 145k-180k is an exciting prospect, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Traders should treat these projections as one piece of the puzzle and incorporate other tools and analyses. Flexibility and adherence to key levels are essential to navigate the inherent uncertainty of markets.
Whether history repeats or diverges, the coming months will provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s fractal tendencies and market behavior.
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: Learning A or B Trading StylesYesterday, after the GDP Now data hit, I received a number of messages related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work in comparison to big news data (like GDP, JOBS, PMI, & Others).
Let me try to explain one simple thing to all of you.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN/Fibonacci Time/Price cycles. They DO NOT correlate or predict price movement based on NEWS EVENTS or other extraneous data.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are, in essence, the core price expectations related to time/price cycles WITHOUT EXTERNAL NEWS EVENTS.
They represent what price is likely to do without any big news, economic data, or critical major event taking place to disrupt the Cycle Pattern.
So, it is important for traders to understand what I call the "A or B" type of trade setup.
Price is always attempting to reach new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
Failure to reach new highs means price must roll downward and attempt to reach new lows. Failure to reach new lows means price must roll upward and attempt to reach new highs.
It is that simple.
Price is always attempting to break above previous critical highs or lows - ALWAYS.
Thus, once you understand this as a basis of price structure/movement, then you can begin to apply more advanced patterns (Fibonacci Price Theory, Excess Phase Peak Pattern, Others) as an additional layer to price structure in an attempt to understand how price dictates all trending/movement.
Now, one must also understand when price attempts to break levels (high or low), it can REJECT at those level (after breaking to new highs or lows). This is what I call a "Washout" pattern.
Rejection happens when a new low or high is reached, but the price FAILS to continue to trend in that direction. For example, if price were to reach a new higher high, then reject, this would be an example that strong resistance exists at/near the previous high level - causing price to FAIL to maintain that new high price level. Thus, I would expect price to move downward after REJECTING at the new high levels (see above).
The reason I'm trying to teach you these price concepts is because I want you to learn to make better decisions - not learn to just "follow along". You have to learn to understand price and understand how price moves related to opportunities.
That is what trading is all about - anticipating price moves because of what you are able to discover on a price chart.
Get some. Happy Friday.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bitcoin: A New Year's Gift? Engulfing Zones Signalhello guy!
First of all! Happy New Year!
I believe in a long position here! Why? let's explain it!
Engulfing Zones:
The term "engulfed" on this chart represents price levels where strong price movements absorbed opposing orders, marking areas of liquidity shifts.
The most recent engulfing level near $93,500 is a critical pivot. It has established itself as a short-term resistance point to watch.
Support Zone:
The shaded region around $91,000–$92,000 has consistently acted as strong support, with multiple rejections confirming its significance.
This zone is crucial for maintaining the current bullish structure.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $93,500–$95,000, which aligns with prior engulfing price action.
Major Resistance: $97,271, marking the upper boundary of the consolidation range and a potential breakout zone.
Trend Structure:
The chart suggests a building bullish structure, with higher lows forming. This indicates buyers are gradually stepping in at higher price levels.
Potential Breakout Setup:
The chart projects a bullish breakout above $93,500 and a test of $95,000. A sustained move above $95,000 could pave the way for a rally toward $97,271.
____________________________________
Scenarios to Watch:
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $93,500 confirms momentum toward $95,000. Clearing this resistance opens the path to $97,271 and possibly higher levels.
The continuation of higher lows supports the bullish outlook, provided the price remains above $91,000.
Cardano most passive scenario when Crypto/BTC pops Here a lidle Fib/Waveanalysis of Cardano aka ADA.
Just dont forget to mention that this is the most passive wave target with the assumption that we in thie case allready bottomed in WAVE2 Correction, waiting for impulsive start into Wave 3.
Wave 3 to 5 are more or less assumptions that only work out when my theory of done wave 1 and 2 has been done allready and validated by a impulsive wave 3.
Facts that we can mention is, that after last bullrun WAVE1 is perfectly arrived in Fib range 88.6 to 78.6 thats a detail that makes me really safe about that whole structure i drawed in that chart.
At the end i will update Target when we drag a bit from actual price to 0.23$ and my thesis still would be valid.
!!! If we go lower then the 0.23$ then my thesis would be invalidate and we are still in correction of the last bullrun. !!!
Target of Wafe 5 is when everything runs minmimalistic with elliotwave targets is around 1.19$
Stay tuned folks
BTC/USD Analysis BITSTAMP:BTCUSD here are some insights based on the setup:
**Key Observations:**
1. **Resistance Zone:**
- The shaded gray zone around **98,000–100,000** acts as a resistance area.
- The price is currently testing this zone, and you are waiting for **bearish confirmation** to consider a sell position.
2. **Support Zone:**
- A significant support level is marked at **91,098**. This would likely be your first target if the bearish setup is confirmed.
- If this support level breaks, it could open further downside opportunities.
3. **Trend Indication:**
- The price is below the longer-term moving averages, suggesting a broader bearish trend.
- The recent upward move may be a retracement into the resistance zone.
4. **Bearish Confirmation:**
- You're likely looking for a clear rejection pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, or other candlestick patterns) or a lower low on smaller time frames near the resistance zone before executing a sell.
**Trading Plan:**
**For a Sell Position:**
- **Entry:** Upon bearish confirmation (e.g., a rejection from 98,000–100,000).
- **Target 1:** **91,098**, as marked on your chart.
- **Target 2:** Further downside if 91,098 breaks (e.g., levels like 88,000 or 86,000 can be monitored).
- **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance zone (e.g., around 100,500 or 101,000, depending on your risk tolerance).
**For a No-Trade Scenario:**
- If the price breaks above 100,000 with strong bullish momentum and no rejection patterns, it invalidates the bearish setup, and you'll wait for a new opportunity.
**Additional Considerations:**
- Keep an eye on **volume**: Strong rejection at resistance with high selling volume can validate the trade.
- Look for confluences with RSI or MACD divergence (if applicable) for added confidence.
- Monitor for external catalysts (e.g., macro news or BTC-related events) that might influence the price action.
USDCHF PredictionUSD/CHF current price stands at 0.90960, meaning 1 US Dollar equals 0.90960 Swiss Francs. The target price is set at 0.95000, indicating an expectation that the price will rise towards this level. The potential gain in pips is over 500 pips, with each pip representing a 0.0001 change in the exchange rate. The strategy is based on the support and resistance pattern, where price movements are analyzed at key levels of support (price floors) and resistance (price ceilings). Before reaching the target of 0.95000, the price is expected to retest the 0.89000 level, which could act as a support zone. This retesting implies that the price may temporarily drop to 0.89000 before continuing its upward trend. If the support at 0.89000 holds, the price is expected to bounce back and resume the move towards the target. The current price of 0.90960 offers an entry point for traders looking to buy, with the anticipation of the price rising to the target. The overall strategy suggests a short-term dip before a longer-term upward movement, providing a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for traders.
Bitcoin Soars: January 3, 2025
Bitcoin has surged to an impressive **$102,870**, setting the stage for what could be a historic bull run! Experts predict it could hit **$120K by Q1** and even **$150K by mid-year**, driven by strong institutional interest and upcoming crypto policy shifts.
This is your moment to act! Whether you’re new to crypto or a seasoned trader, I’m here to help you maximize this opportunity.
Bitcoin Update !The price previously moved within an ascending channel but broke downwards.
After the breakdown, BTC consolidated in a falling wedge pattern and is now breaking upwards.
The red line (possibly the 50 MA) and the black line (possibly the 20 MA) indicate a bearish crossover during the breakdown.
The price is now attempting to rise above both moving averages.
It appears that BTC has successfully broken out of the wedge pattern.
A retest of the breakout level around $94,000-$95,000 may occur before further upside.
The hand-drawn curve suggests a bullish scenario, targeting levels around $110,000-$112,000 in the medium term.
Before the uptrend resumes, there could be a pullback or correction around the $102,000-$104,000 area.
Key Levels:
Support: $94,000, $92,000
Resistance: $100,000, $104,000, $112,000
The breakout from the falling wedge is a bullish signal, and if BTC stays above the moving averages and key support levels, a move toward $110,000 is possible. However, keep an eye on a potential retest of $94,000 for confirmation.
Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments!
DYOR. NFA
Levont - BTC/USD Analysis: Testing Key Resistance ZoneBTC/USD Analysis (Daily Chart - D1)
Price Structure:
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,884 , approaching a key resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000 . This area has historically acted as a significant rejection point, as seen in previous candles with long upper wicks around this region.
- The chart shows a clear rebound from the support zone around $90,000-$92,000 , where buyers stepped in strongly to prevent further declines. This movement validates the support as a critical level.
- Overall, the structure presents a consolidation pattern within a broad range between $90,000 (support) and $100,000 (resistance) .
Potential Scenarios:
1.Bullish Scenario:
- If the price successfully breaks above the $100,000 resistance (confirmed by a strong daily close above this level), we could see a move toward higher levels such as $102,000-$104,000 , or even beyond.
- An increase in volume during the breakout would be key to validating this scenario.
2.Bearish Scenario:
- If the price fails to break the resistance and shows rejection through candles with long upper wicks or bearish patterns (e.g., shooting stars), we could expect a correction toward immediate support at $94,000 , or even a more pronounced drop toward recent lows at $90,000 .
Key Indicators:
- Volume : Currently low, suggesting indecision in the market. A significant breakout will require notable volume expansion.
- Candles: Recent candles show solid bullish bodies, but the next sessions will be crucial to confirm whether buyers have enough strength to challenge the resistance.
🔑 Key Levels:
- Resistance: $98,000 - $100,000
- Support: $94,000 and $90,000
🌍 BTC/USD Fundamental Analysis
Positive Factors:
1. Institutional Adoption:
- Companies like MicroStrategy continue accumulating Bitcoin. Their recent massive purchase reinforces the long-term bullish narrative.
- Institutional interest remains strong as Bitcoin solidifies its position as an alternative asset against inflation and global economic uncertainty.
2. Favorable Regulation:
- In the U.S., there are expectations of clearer and more favorable crypto policies under the current administration. This could attract new capital flows into the market.
3. Seasonal Trends:
- Historically, January has been a positive month for Bitcoin. Investors often reset their strategies after year-end tax-related sell-offs.
Negative Factors/Risks:
1. Token Unlocks:
- January is expected to see massive token unlocks across various crypto projects (approximately $7 billion in value). This could indirectly create selling pressure on Bitcoin as investors seek liquidity.
2. Global Monetary Policy:
- The hawkish stance of central banks (e.g., the Federal Reserve) could limit flows into speculative assets like Bitcoin if interest rates continue rising.
3. On-Chain Activity:
- While long-term holders are accumulating, on-chain data shows a decline in overall transaction activity. This could indicate reduced interest from retail participants.
Bitcoin Annual Timeframe AnalysisOverview:
Bitcoin's price movement on the annual timeframe demonstrates a clear formation of waves, reflecting market dynamics and investor behavior. The analysis covers the primary wave structures and transitions, as well as the evolution of analytical perspectives based on price actions.
Detailed Analysis:
Major Wave 1 (2009 - 2017):
The first major wave consists of five distinct sub-waves:
Sub-Wave 1: Rise from $0 to $30.
Sub-Wave 2: Correction to $4.
Sub-Wave 3: Strong rally to $1,163.
Sub-Wave 4: Correction to $152.
Sub-Wave 5: Extension to $19,666.
Major Wave 2 (2018):
A sharp correction to $3,122, representing the second major wave. This wave is consistent across all scenarios, marking the end of the first cycle and the beginning of the next major trend.
Old Perspective (2019 - 2021):
The rise from $3,122 to $69,000 was considered the third major wave .
The correction to approximately $15,000 was classified as the fourth major wave .
The expected termination near $75,000–$80,000 was projected to be the fifth major wave , respecting the Termination Channel.
Analytical Shift:
The breakout above $80,000 invalidated the old perspective, requiring a reevaluation. The updated analysis reclassifies the movements within Major Wave 3 as:
Updated Major Wave 3 (2019 - 2024):
Sub-Wave 1: A rise from $3,122 to $69,000.
Sub-Wave 2: Correction to $15,974.
Sub-Wave 3: Current rally to $108,000, with potential extension towards $125,000.
The Termination Channel has now evolved into a Base Channel , providing support for future corrections instead of acting as resistance.
Future Projections:
Sub-Wave 4: A potential correction aligning with the Base Channel.
Sub-Wave 5: A rally to conclude Major Wave 3, potentially exceeding $125,000.
Key Failure Points:
Price dropping below $69,000 would indicate weakening bullish momentum.
Price falling under $46,000 would signify a potential market reversal, undermining the long-term bullish structure. Such a drop would also validate the old perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin's bullish cycle concluded at levels between $108,000 and $125,000.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin's wave structure showcases a clear roadmap of market dynamics. The transition from the Termination Channel to the Base Channel underscores the evolving nature of market analysis. Monitoring price action within these channels and the identified support levels is essential for making informed trading decisions. This analysis highlights key opportunities for growth while recognizing critical failure points to manage risk effectively.
Crypto Alpha Report - January 02, 2025Happy Thursday, friends. Today, I want to reflect on opportunity costs and the risks of being spread too thin.
Regarding investing, almost all traditional education preaches the value of a ‘diversified portfolio.’ While that is a fantastic concept, if you’ve already made it with millions in the bank, the actual reality is that most of us are still grinding to get there.
For those of us who haven’t ‘made it,’ diversification can protect wealth, but it will not rapidly grow it. This is also true in trading, but the implications of a ‘diversified approach’ in trading is even more dangerous, particularly in crypto.
The reality is many of us overestimate our capabilities and underestimate the time it will take to do something. Preparing a strategy takes time. Scanning the markets and researching new projects takes time.
And for every different sector in crypto, for every new hype cycle, there is a new meta, a new alpha, new skills to learn, new strategies to develop, and new tools to learn how to use.
A year ago, I had never even heard of GMGN, and didn’t track social metrics as a key part of my memecoin strategy - now it’s something I do every day.
You must guard your time and focus because a million things are vying for your attention daily. The risk of trying to learn too many things is that you become spread too thin, mediocre at many things, but not truly great at one thing that can exponentially increase your wealth.
The same is true for your investments; spread yourself too thin, and you’ll get the average return of the market instead of the punctuated gains you seek. You’ll also drive yourself crazy trying to keep up with all those positions daily.
I find 5-10 active positions are what I can effectively manage. More than that, I start to lose focus, and I see a feeling of anxiety creeping in. I feel most powerful and effective when they’re on the lower end of that range.
In summary, you only have so much time in the day. Don’t underestimate how difficult and time-consuming it can be to get competent in a new skill. Don’t underestimate how much mental effort it takes to manage multiple positions. Keep things simple, limit your number of positions, wait for the right opportunities to come to you, and bet big on them with sound risk management.
Market Update
Stablecoin Dominance
This metric fell by -2.28% today. Not a lower low, but three significant days of moving down, which favors our risk-on assets.
Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
We are putting in a Lower Low today, but we are showing some upside pressure as we move into the Daily Close. Tentatively bullish for a continuation of altcoins.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
Went for a breakout today, but so far, it has failed. Selling pressure on alts is coming this evening as we head into Daily Close. It's still tentatively bullish for altcoin continuation.
Bitcoin
Trends
5M: Neutral
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Bearish
D: Bullish
Bitcoin has put in a nice movement off its lows of $92,000, rallying to almost $98,000. While a good start, Bitcoin faces stiff resistance and volatility, which has increased dramatically in the short term. This is the first Bull Trap area, and Bitcoin needs to hold above $94-$95K on any pullback, or we risk a movement below $90,000.
Key Levels
POC: $93,640
VWAP: $96,422
Value Area High: $97,412 - $98,995
Value Area Low: $95,433 - $94,482
Strategy
Bitcoin faces its first wave of significant distribution as we approach $98,000. This is the first strong uptrend we’ve seen in Bitcoin for a while, and it has not reversed yet, but it is hinting at it. Strong buys have stepped in between $96,200 to $96,800. If Bitcoin loses short-term momentum overnight, then it is critical that we put in a Higher Low above $93,000. Trading lower than $93,000 marks this as a bull trap and essentially confirms that we will experience a Lower Low in Bitcoin’s price rather than a bullish two weeks.
For now, continue to hold longs opened up below $95,000. For new long positions, I would strictly manage risk at $96,000.