9 day vix model we should now form a last rally we are now outside the bb bands and we are 55 days from the peak
1-VIX
$TNX $NDX $DJI $SPX $DXY $VIX calls from Sept 11 on pointWe posted an interesting idea September 11th. These are today's notes.
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The TVC:TNX is pumping higher - "Coincidentally" the SAME time frame that the TVC:NDQ TVC:DJI & SP:SPX are breaking down!
The 2yr has moved a bit & is testing a breakout level.
All shorter time frames from the 2year are STAGNANT!
#stocks #dollar #yield
VIX: “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)-A bullish harmonic pattern “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)
-On the downside, 11.82 should be watched.
-But the probabilities are stronger on the rise.
-The ECB’s speech will perhaps “change the situation”.
-Don't forget that Volatility lives up to its name VERY well!
-Be careful and “stay covered!” » ;-)
$DJI $NDX $SPX show warning signs UpdateGood Morning!
We turned neutral, from Bullish Sept 2022, late July - early August.
Since then #stocks have traded slowly lower.
For the moment all major indices trade ABOVE longer term moving avgs. This tends to be a good sign. However, they're all trading sub short term moving avgs.
Furthermore:
Indicators like RSI & Money Flow have eroded recently
They've also formed ominous patterns, as follows:
DJ:DJI formed Rising Wedge.
NASDAQ:NDX $ CBOE:SPX Head & Shoulders.
Most likely these patterns will resolve soon. Either confirm or break.
Have an awesome trading week!
$VIX flashing warning signs🚨 🚨 🚨
TVC:VIX is showing warning signs.
It is forming Higher Highs but also slightly lower lows.
Forming a potential Triple Bottom
PRSI has Positive Divergence.
BUT
What really gets me is the 2nd BULLISH ENGULFING in a month. Shown by the 2 yellow arrows.
As stated before, we do believe that before September ends there's going to be a big move.
Here's What Has to Happen Next Week to Show Us DirectionTraders,
Are we going up? Or are we going down? Sigh. This market is exhausting, I know. And once again we are on the brink of decision time for the U.S. market. The dollar is knocking on the door of overhead resistance, if it breaks then we can expect downward movement both in the U.S. stock market and in crypto. But if resistance holds firm, expect weakness in the U.S. dollar to show again. This will be priced into the market positively and you can expect more upward movement both in stocks and crypto.
In this video, I will briefly show you the main technical areas we need to continue monitoring next week.
Best,
Stew
VIX Will Go Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for VIX.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 12.81.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 13.44 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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VIX: Bullish Bat with PPO Arrow and MACD Bullish DivergenceThe VIX has formed a Bullish Bat and is currently trading at the HOP level with PPO Confirmation and MACD Bullish Divergence. If it plays out, I think the VIX could at least see $15 again.
Dollar Bulls May Win!Traders,
We have been monitoring the U.S. dollar for years now. It is, by far, one of the most significant variables in monitoring what price action may do elsewhere. Almost everything here in the U.S. hinges upon it and its ripple impact is, without a doubt, global. Crypto most certainly is not excluded.
I was early to spot this Head and Shoulders pattern. It was in October of last year that I think I first speculated this ominous pattern may be forming on our DXY chart. But I was not really clear then whether or not it would truly form and furthermore, if it would play out.
Fast forward to today. I am still not clear. However, there are several clues that may indicate that this H&S pattern will become invalidated. Of course, the number one clue is the ever-increasing strength of the dollar. Should it beat that 105.6 level I have drawn, I don't believe the pattern remains valid. Comment below if you disagree. Ensure to comment as to why you disagree in order that we can all learn together.
Another reason I have doubted the pattern is that dip below our neckline in mid-August. On the daily, the neckline was broken. But then we quickly reversed. On the weekly chart, the break was never confirmed with a second candle opening and closing below the neckline. Therefore, I kept the pattern present on my chart and continued to monitor.
But it looks as though we are now approaching decision time. And in my mind, if my level of 105.6 is absorbed and confirmed, I can safely remove the pattern from the chart and cease tracking. This would spell bad news for the market. As I have discussed many times previously, as stronger dollar generally weighs down the U.S. stock market, especially when the VIX plays along with it and increases the measurement of fear/panic. As of today, the VIX is at an all time two-year low. This sends sort of a mixed signal to traders. I like to think of it as a neutralizing factor. When the dollar is up but the VIX is moving down, generally the market tends to move sideways. So, we are relatively safe right now. However, should that fear index spike, expect a significant pullback to occur in the U.S. stock market, especially if that dollar beats my level.
Stay tuned as I continue to track these scenarios.
Best,
Stew
✅VIX RISKY LONG🚀
✅VIX is going down to retest a horizontal support of 12.8$
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that we will see a rebound
And a move up from the level
Towards the target above at 13.5$
LONG🚀
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VIX - below 12,72; SPX - another rally Very interesting picture I can see right now.
#VIX is dumping, VVIX also, but Put/Call ratio is about to pump on Monthly TF.
Either SPX will make the last pump UP and then will dump until 4280$ or SPX will continue pumping as did AAPL and NVDIA these months.
$VIX heading lower again. What if it breaks support?TVC:VIX seems to be heading lower and looks as if it wants to touch the recent support level.
Weekly #VIX is showing some RSI positive divergence.
We've been bullish since Sept 2022. However, we recently turned NEUTRAL.
However, we need to be open and focus on trends and momentum and not hysteria. If the VIX breaks the yellow line, then chances are #stocks are going higher again.
Interesting, no?
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility.
The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit.
The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors.
The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets.
The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX:
The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants.
The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters.
The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market.
Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
$TNX, 2Yr Yield, $DXY, $VIX analysisThe 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days.
Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about.
TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again?
The only odd man out is the $VIX.
It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is just something to look at and not of much use until it is.
September will go out with a BANG!!!
One way or another!
Opening gap not retraced yetOne thing we would like to point out is yesterday's opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index. A failure of the price to fill the gap risks rekindling the volatility in the short-term future. As such, it is something we are paying attention to.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The crash of fear
Almost surprised that the VIX is only at 14 with the Chinese and European PMIs + the surge in oil (which causes a new recovery in rates...)
^^
✅VIX POTENTIAL LONG🚀
✅VIX fell again to retest the support of 12.78
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
We will see a bullish rebound and a move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook:
Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment.
Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid:
Dot Com
s3.tradingview.com
2008
With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period.
Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event.
Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
VIX Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for VIX.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 13.09.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 15.72 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VIX Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VIX has been falling
For quite some time now
And the index is about to
Retest the horizontal support
Level of 12.8 from where
A local rebound is to be expected
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
CRASH SIGNAL the ABC rally has ended or 1 lastThe chart posted is the qqq but sp 500 the same I had the alt target to peak at 381.6 so far 381.1 we could pop but for trading puts not an issue I have move to 85 % net long PUTS a CRASH is about to start min downside is 345/336 sp should see min 4310 /4230 on this drop the vix will see a move well above the last high even the min alt is 19.88 and TNX hit the target of 40.66 rates to soar the DXY is on its way to 105.1 to 106.3 Best of trades WAVETIMER
SVXY INVERSE VIX is giving a warning of a BIG MOVE IN VIX SOONThe chart posted in that of svxy short vix index as you can see that it ahs been a very good signal as to when we have some of our turns . This is also showing a bearish divergence on RSI a spike in vix is nearing
Volatility getting crushed after indicator alert once againVolatility getting crushed after indicator alert once again
TVC:VIX $VX
