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1-VIX

Taking A Swing, 10 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm probably being overdramatic by saying all hell has broken loose but it certainly looked that way from my perspective with today's equity performance. The VIX certainly portrayed it by spiking much higher. ➤ Equities experienced the biggest daily drop this year. It is an acceleration of the drop from the Feb 2 high. It was only yesterday that I was more in favour of an upward swing. Today's price action clearly have swung it back to the Bears. ➤ It's finally time. Continuing with my cricket analogy: The ball was delivered to my liking and I have taken a big swing of the bat. Will I be able to score some runs or will I get caught? ➤ Is this just the beginning of a fast and furious drop or will it be a short-lived affair? In the case I am right. The downside targets are 387, 380 and 370 on the SPY. ➤ Conclusion: I am Short with full risk after today's price action. NOTES: S&P500 looks to have moved decisively away from the 200 day moving average.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. 180 Support Lost5 waves down all the way to ~100 to end 2022. Huge bounce all the way to 200dma and key resistance area that has rejected. 180 support failing ... looks like we'll move towards the gap fill at 145 Through the first 2 months of 2023, retail investors have bought ~$10B worth of Telsa, more than any other stock/ETF (compared to ~$4B of $SPY). What could go wrong? 🤓 $QQQ $NQ_F $NDX $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $SOX $ES_F $SPX $TLT $TNX $VIX #Stocks 📉
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by KobesyTrades
The Probabilities Have Swung, 9 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices finished the day slightly up countering attempts for a further fall. Following-on from yesterday's note, that means there was NO FOLLOW-THROUGH by the Bears. ➤ I think the probabilities now favour a short-term reversal higher for the Bulls. A lacklustre uptick in the VIX with such a Bearish day yesterday was perhaps the first sign the probabilities have swung. ➤ As a Trader, I play the market based on probabilities. Let me explain this in keeping with my cricket analogy but this time from the perspective of the Batter. The Batter will play a shot depending on the type of delivery s/he receives from the Bowler just like in Baseball. The choice is to leave the ball or hit the ball with varying strength and direction. The more the ball is pitched to your liking (or to your strength), the higher the chance of your success of putting runs on the board. ➤ This is why in recent days I have not offered a shot and have let the ball "pass through to the keeper". Of course I want to trade but the market conditions have not offered balls delivered to my liking. I therefore watch closely, keep my concentration and wait. ➤ Conclusion: A shot at shorting the market is not out of the question but another day like today will see me take a Bullish shot. NOTES: S&P500 is still firmly attracted to the 200 day moving average. Price continues to whipsaw.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Great down day for $SPY (+25% return)Shorted $AAPL at close to yesterday's high ($155-156) for a close to 25%+ gain with SPY being down -1.53% today. What comes next? 1/ TESTIMONY DAY 1 $DXY ripped through the supply zone during Powell's testimony. $SPY bulls will want to see DXY make it back in the zone for SPY to move 401+ which has acted as near-term resistance (anything goes when it comes to Powell). 2/ POSITIONING UPDATE Still holding my swing position for $AAPL (see previous linked idea). I expect more drawdown before I consider trimming,
AMEX:SPY
by theapearmy
The Follow-Through, 8 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices ended the day sharply lower. It was either this or the other way round. I hope you chose the right side. I'm still sidelined. ➤ It's not all bad being sidelined. I get to think and write more in regards to my insights into markets and their behaviour. ➤ As I said, NO trade was triggered today. It was close. Now I await the "follow-through". I'm pretty fond of that term because it first resonated with me through watching one of my favourite sports: Cricket. ➤ The "follow-through" action of a Fast Bowler in Cricket is very important. It's the ending action after the ball is released. It's vital for a Fast Bowler who steams in at great pace to have a smooth ending action in order to direct the ball as s/he wished, reduce chance of injury and not to be penalised for running on the pitch. It's all a bit technical but it's very important. ➤ A follow-through is just as important when it comes to market movement. It is important for the Bears to see a continuation of today's action tomorrow. Without a proper follow-through, this down move will be reversed easily. That's what I'll be looking out for tomorrow. ➤ Conclusion: A good follow-through to the downside would almost certainly see me leave the sidelines and become a short-term Bear. NOTES: all price gaps have been closed. VIX did not explode higher as it should have.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Don't Fall for VIX Volatility Dead Cat Bounce“Happiness was never important. The problem is that we don't know what we really want. What makes us happy is not to get what we want. But to dream about it. Happiness is for opportunists. So I think that the only life of deep satisfaction is a life of eternal struggle, especially struggle with oneself. If you want to remain happy, just remain stupid. Authentic masters are never happy; happiness is a category of slaves.”
TVC:VIXShort
by noam_chom
2
Strange Happenings, 7 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices ended the day flat after the initial Bullish momentum carried over from last week. Strange was the out-sized relative underperformance of the Russell 2000 small cap stocks. It sold off quite aggressively. What's a plausible explanation? Interest rates? Maybe it was just one of those days... ➤ BTW, I forgot to mention this: Last Friday was the 10th CONSECUTIVE Friday that equities ended the trading day with a green candle i.e. higher close than the open. What's with this pattern of events? What will happen this Friday? ➤ I don't read too much into today's price action. It maybe some anxiety with upcoming economic data and blabbering Fed mouths. It isn't a reliable signal to say if prices will reverse lower or it was just a temporary pause in upward momentum. ➤ Conclusion: It's 50/50 on the direction of the next trade. Market is leaving me guessing.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Wen 420 $SPY? Hold up buster.1/ WHAT HAPPENED? It's no secret that the past 2 days attracted tons of buyers and bullish sentiment on Twitter regarding $SPY 420+. My take: Unless we see a definitive break above ~$408 (see chart), this'll be another bear rally. I'll be evaluating this as the week progresses. 2/ MY POSITIONING - Taking an initial short on $AAPL $145P 5/19 this week -- a #SPY sympathy play with potential for further drawdown. Keep in mind resistance at $156.40. - Based on market price action, I may also consider shorting $SPY. Patience is crucial given #JPOW is back on 3/7-3/8. 3/ PREPARING FOR THIS WEEK | $VIX - Despite notable macroeconomic problems (i.e. inflation, earnings declines, and rate hikes), VIX is lagging in strength. To curb the recent upward trend, I'm hoping for $VIX to remain above its February low, approximately at $17.5. 4/ PREPARING FOR THIS WEEK | $DXY - To see more $SPY drawdown, I'm looking for clear upward movement above ~$105.2 beyond the supply zone. To reiterate, I am long-term short, but cautious of how price action will play out in the near term. Like and subscribe for additional insights on the market outlook and my approach as the market continues to unfold. Good luck trading this week!
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy
Marching Higher? 6 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ My current view of equity markets is based on today's chart colour scheme. Green and a bit of grey. ➤ With a strong rebound higher in markets over the last couple of trading days, I think things look pretty Bullish. The trend from the October 2022 bottom is Bullish. It is a series of higher highs and higher lows. The classical definition of an uptrend. ➤ It looks like the Sellers have dried up. All the selling has been absorbed by the Buyers. Everything pretty much adds up to the Bullish tone. ➤ The only grey is the price structure that I look at (my secret sauce) remains not so clear. There is not yet a trading signal for a BUY and there is still a reasonable possibility to go SHORT. ➤ How prices evolve this week will almost certaintly settle the case and we should see a trade soon enough. 🤞 ➤ Conclusion: Looks can be decieving. 🥸
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
So far so good on the BTC Cup and Handle!Traders, In this weekly update, I cover the DXY, VIX, US500, US10Y, US02Y, inverted yield and its significance, Eurodollar, Credit Suisse, unemployment, and the Bitcoin. I'll cover a few anomalies that I am seeing in our current market and explain what they might indicate for future price action. Finally, we will cover that Bitcoin Cup and Handle pattern that I have been projecting for the past few weeks: what happens if it plays out and what happens if it fails. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Dip Dip Dip...Is it Done? 3 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A massive reversal of fortunes as the dip buyers show their hand. Is it the end of the short-term downtrend from the 2nd Feb high? ➤ The honest answer to that is I have no idea and no one else does either. We can only assign probabilities as to what may happen next. That after all is what Trading and Investing is all about. Making a sound judgement and then backing that up with money. ➤ With the current scenario, it is completely unclear to me as to how prices will evolve. That is why I haven't put on a position. That is why my Strategy hasn't given a trading signal. ➤ Today's price action builds on the scenario that I outlined yesteday. That is the Bullish scenario as explained by the abscence of strong selling pressure. I described it as the "drip drip drip" of small downward movements. The large Bullish intention of today's move could mark the end of the drip. ➤ However, there are many complications. One of which is how price resolves itself around the 200 day moving average. It is hanging around there like a bad smell. ➤ Conclusion: Trading is about discipline. We are not forced into a trade, it is a choice. There are good and bad choices.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Drip Drip Drip... 2 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another down day to start off March. You can see that prices have trickled down slowly drip by drip since the Feb 2 high. It feels like a death by a thousand cuts. Not enjoyable for the Bulls nor satisfying for the bloodthirsty Bears. ➤ It's certainly different to the drops in the past year where they have been fast and furious. This has two potential meanings: ❶ There's a lack of strong selling ❷ There's strong selling still to come ➤ In the first case, the behaviour says that the Bulls will eventually win out. They are absorbing whatever level of selling there is. Bears will exhaust themselves ending in an inevitable levitation in price (perhaps a fast one since there are no more sellers). ➤ In the second case, the dumb Bulls are buying the dip. As a more clever Bull you have the knowledge that there are more sellers than buyers. In order to exit your buy positions at the best price you exit with care, drip by drip. Until at some stage, the dumb dip buyers run out and then the drip feed becomes a selling waterfall as the Bears come to feed. ➤ Conclusion: These are the types of games the big players play. I don't really care for either explanation. My only care is that I grasp this opportunity to make money.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro