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1-VIX

The Resistance, 2nd Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ February started off with a bang as equity participants responded favourably to the US interest rate decision. Notable was the strong performance of the NASDAQ and the flat performance in the Bluechip Dow 30. ➤ Price in the S&P500 equity index has reached key resistance levels. It will be interesting to see how prices react. So far in after-hours trading prices have kept moving higher but this is generally unreliable. ➤ At these levels, the price is heavily overextended to the upside. Therefore I am not joining in the fun. The price can keep rising and defy gravity but usually this happens after setting all time highs. We are not in that situation. The higher probability is for some sort of retracement or sideways movement to ease out of the overbought zone. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting for better opportunities.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages. What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data. I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009. Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
11
I'm a Skeptic, 1st Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished strongly to end an outstanding month. The enthusiasm is palpable, however, I'm a skeptic of market conditions for two reasons: i) Many believe we are back in a bull market. I think this is pre-mature. A monthly close above 411.73 will change my mind. The market did not achieve this just yet. The current level of the S&P500 equity index is where it was in May 2022. The market has moved laterally. Furthermore, the move since the October 2022 low looks very laboured. It's not a fast rise, each step up is very small. It's not displaying the kind of strong buying with confidence. ii) In the very short-term, I also don't like the way the price finished today. It may be a minor observation but I don't like to see a bullish bar finish below a recent high (27th Jan 2023). Why stop just short of the high and not exceed it? ➤ I closed my small long position to wait for the next opportunity. ➤ Conclusion: Back on the sideline but not for long.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The First Move, 31st January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ After Friday's weak close, prices acted even weaker by a sharp fall on Monday. Well...not really a sharp fall...more of a standard-sized fall given the jump in volatility post 2021. In any case, the Bears have made the first move in this important week of economic announcements. What response will the Bulls have on interest rate decision day Tuesday? ➤ Remember, I would consider the Bear market over with a monthly close above 411.73 on the SPY monthly chart. Will it be achieved on the final day of January? ➤ The VIX has moved higher off the lows. It's not very convincing at the moment. Another heavy down day will change that narrative completely. ➤ I have entered a small LONG position given the technical set-up. ➤ Conclusion: Back in the action.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX GAPS COULD NOT BE EASIER!Here we have another gap, and these really seem to play well on the VIX! Not guaranteed but something to watch. DXY is holding strong as well ;) Not financial advice, DYOR www.investopedia.com Gaps are spaces on a chart that emerge when the price of the financial instrument significantly changes with little or no trading in-between. Gaps occur unexpectedly as the perceived value of the investment changes, due to underlying fundamental or technical factors. Gaps are classified as breakaway, exhaustion, common, or continuation, based on when they occur in a price pattern and what they signal. How to Play the Gaps There are many ways to take advantage of these gaps, with a few strategies more popular than others. Some traders will buy when fundamental or technical factors favor a gap on the next trading day. For example, they'll buy a stock after hours when a positive earnings report is released, hoping for a gap up on the following trading day. Traders might also buy or sell into highly liquid or illiquid positions at the beginning of a price movement, hoping for a good fill and a continued trend. For example, they may buy a currency when it is gapping up very quickly on low liquidity and there is no significant resistance overhead. Some traders will fade gaps in the opposite direction once a high or low point has been determined (often through other forms of technical analysis). For example, if a stock gaps up on some speculative report, experienced traders may fade the gap by shorting the stock. Lastly, traders might buy when the price level reaches the prior support after the gap has been filled. An example of this strategy is outlined below. Here are the key things you will want to remember when trading gaps: Once a stock has started to fill the gap, it will rarely stop, because there is often no immediate support or resistance. Exhaustion gaps and continuation gaps predict the price moving in two different directions—be sure you correctly classify the gap you are going to play. Retail investors are the ones who usually exhibit irrational exuberance; however, institutional investors may play along to help their portfolios, so be careful when using this indicator and wait for the price to start to break before taking a position. Be sure to watch the volume. High volume should be present in breakaway gaps, while low volume should occur in exhaustion gaps.
TVC:VIX
by ChartProphet
4
VIX long, but how long?VIX price movement is clearly narrowing from a charting technical view, but within the economic fundamentals we have the FED raising rates at an extremely fast pace into a slowdown. Their publicly stated inflation projection was clearly wrong, I highly doubt they will squash inflation with much accuracy given these blunt force tools. For this reason the VIX could go well beyond the 35-40 range if the FED over raised rates. Since Powell was guessing on inflation after injecting more money into the system than ever before(no data to support obviously), it’s fair to assume there is no data to support the current pace and magnitude of raises in this slowing environment. If the current pace is perfect(again no data it would be almost lucky) then the VIX could fall from 35. My base case is the VIX goes over 40 and the FED cuts rates to fix their second mess later this year.
TVC:VIXLong
by bgreer009
6
SPY option profit opportunity while VIX is lowThe Market Ear recently teased a swoon in S$PX/$SPY, noting at the end of last week: "The absolute cost of a 2 month 5% put in $SPX is trading at one of the lowest level in ~2 years." Puts cost too much, but when $VIX is low, so are put premiums (relatively). If you think the market could see a 5% swoon from here in the short term, there are a couple of ways to play it. One would be to buy puts outright. As of Friday's close, $SPY 385 puts for 3/31 expiry were priced at $5.17 per contract. If $SPY breaks soon, your theta loss would be minimal while implied volatility increases could provide quick early profits. Traders whose favor a fixed risk/reward strategy could purchase 395-385 put debit spreads for 3/31 expiry at $2.27 per spread (as of Friday's close). Your maximum loss would be $227 per spread with a maximum gain of $772, roughly a 3:1 R/R ratio. As with all option plays, traders will want to watch days-to-expiry and drawdowns, and consider taking profits on the way down.
AMEX:SPY
by SwingWaiter
The Business End, 30th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ We've come to the end of January and it is going to be one of the busiest of the year. Interest rate decision, major earnings and key economic data combine. Add on to the important technical levels for the S&P500, you can see why we really are at the business end of things. ➤ There is time for the S&P500 to close above the monthly highs of recent months. That should cement the Bullish enthusiasm. If not, we will have to see if the market can do so at the end of February. ➤ Some selling came at the end of the session Friday. This may just be profit-taking but I can sense a certain hesitation since we are at key levels straddling 410 on the SPY. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: I'm hoping to get into the action with the expected volatility.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Week ahead 1/29/2023 The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US non-farm payrolls report are the most highly anticipated events in the US, as savvy investors like myself keep a close eye on the economy. The inflation numbers have shown signs of cooling, giving me hope that the Federal Reserve might slow down its monetary policy tightening with a modest 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Europe's central banks are expected to raise interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England leading the charge in their aggressive campaign against inflation. I'll also be following key reports on growth, inflation, and unemployment for the Euro Area , Germany , Italy , France , and Spain . Across the pond, China 's PMI data will be in the spotlight as the world watches the first gauge of the world's second-largest economy after the government transitioned away from its zero-Covid policy. In Japan , I'll be following consumer confidence figures, housing starts, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate. Down under, Australia will have a packed week with the Ai Group Manufacturing Index for January and retail sales, housing credit, and building permits for December. In New Zealand , I'll be following the December trade balance and fourth-quarter labor market figures. So, to summarize, here's what we have in store this week: US: Federal Reserve's interest rate decision US non-farm payrolls report ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs JOLTs Job Openings ADP private payrolls S&P Global PMIs Earnings season with prominent companies reporting (AMD, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Qualcomm) Europe: European Central Bank and Bank of England interest rate hike Eurozone inflation, growth, and unemployment reports Germany's prices and trade Euro Area business survey Switzerland's KOF leading indicators Turkey's inflation rate January's manufacturing and services PMIs Asia: China's PMI data Japan's consumer confidence, housing starts, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate India's Union Budget and January PMIs South Korea's inflation and trade data Australia and New Zealand: Ai Group Manufacturing Index and retail sales Housing credit, building permits, and trade balance Labor market figures
UShort
by TayFx
2