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1-VIX

Bang! 19th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities fell sharpely on Wednesday trade. It was the largest down move of the new year. The market is reminding us that it's not a one way ticket to the moon. VIX is back above 20. I think we can forgive it for having a peek below the pink zone although I did think it would go lower prior to any rebound. ➤ S&P500 was battling the 200-day moving average. Price movement today rejected that level. It's not a conclusive failure as prices tend to whipsaw around such keenly watched technical levels. ➤ Still of interest is that the NASDAQ/TECH is still outperforming the DJIA BLUE CHIPS even on a large down day like today. Normally you would expect "riskier" assets to sell-off more during a risk-off phase. ➤ I opened a moderate long position looking for a quick trade. ➤ Conclusion: Dull one moment, intense the next.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Beginning of the End, 18th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ OK, I'm being over-dramatic with the title of today's note. It actually was a pretty dull day of trading. NASDAQ continues to outperform the Blue Chip indices showing that overall risk-on behaviour is still prevalent. ➤ VIX did bounce higher back into the pink zone. Is this the start of something bearish? It's ambigious. The price action in the S&P500 was not meaningful other than to say there was some profit-taking. With earnings season starting, prices may be jumpy too. ➤ I have closed my long positions and now hold no positions. ➤ Conclusion: Dull action leads to more intense action. Looking forward to it.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Will history repeat again?Look at the VIX chart here; we are again in the VIX 18th zone. In 2022 it was an excellent indicator to spot the bottom; it works during the bear markets only! So if we are still in a bear market, it should bounce from the 18 level hard and Indexes to fall. If we are entering a bull market, this setup can fail right here. I doubt it will fail until we see Q1 lows in markets. I might be wrong, and this setup can fail in a grand style. The VIX bottoms have an excellent correlation with SPX highs (at the bottom orange colour); look for the yellow marked pointers for the 2022 patterns from VIX 18 level. I think we will repeat the same pattern again.
CBOE:VIX
by RealTima
10
VIX: VOLATILITY INCOMING??? / CHART UPDATE / SUPPLY & DEMANDDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided an UPDATED MACRO chart for the VIX with more reliable SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT & UPDATED TRAJECTORY. POINTS: 1. DEVIATION of 7 POINTS in PRICE ACTION places SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS where most STABLE CONSOLIDATION OCCURS. 2. Current trend shows a DESCENDING CHANNEL with VIX NEARLY DOWN 50% 3. MACD'S LOWEST POINTS decides PERIODS where VOLATILITY comes to an END. 4. UPCOMING PREDICTION OF POSSIBLE NEW LOW IS FORMULATED FROM AN AVERAGE OF PERIODS MARKED BETWEEN LOWEST POINTS OF MACD THEREFORE: 91 Days + 135 Days + 109 Days = ROUGHLY 112 Days. 5. RSI signals increased VOLATILITY AFTER BREAK of 40 on RSI. *IMPORTANT: SUPPORT at 19 has OFFICIALLY BEEN BROKEN. LOSS of 19 CAN BE A STRONG INDICATOR FOR OVERALL MARKET RALLY IN THE POSITIVE. SCENARIO ONLY ONE: IF YOU ARE A BEAR YOU WANT TO SEE A REGAIN OF 19 SUPPORT AND FURTHER PUSH DOWNWARD FOR BULLS. TVC:VIX
TVC:VIX
by DGSTBROKERACC
Market Update 1/15/2023More or less things are still in limbo. There is a possibility that there would be a huge upswing if the vix can start this week under 17.83. We will see if that happens. At the end of the day the rise from Jan 1st was pretty easy to see and we are in the "take profit" zone. This never inherently means done be in or sell everything, but is better thought of (from a bullish possibility) as a wave 2 or wave 4 in Elliot wave terms. I go over more specifics in the video. I am too lazy to put timestamps for this one, but I think its worth the watch or listening to at least. Not too much new if you have been watching the previous updates.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TrendLINEBoys
The Schindler ratio | Recession Proof Company listAMEX:SPY The Schindler ratio measures the company's ability to withstand economic recessions. It is calculated by dividing the company's debt-to-GDP ratio by the median debt-to-GDP ratio for the industry in the intermediate future. The Schindler ratio is an essential metric for investors, as higher ratios indicate a more extraordinary ability for the company to withstand economic downturns. Studies have shown that companies with higher Schindler ratios tend to be more recession-proof than those with lower ratios. For example, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, Catlin Group, a UK-based insurer, had a Schindler ratio of 1.07, indicating that it was more likely to survive the recession than its competitors. The Schindler ratio can also be used to compare the relative recession-proofing of different industries. For example, in a recent study, economists found that the Schindler ratio for the insurance industry was 0.909, meaning that it was less recession-proof than the retail industry, which had a ratio of 0.879. Furthermore, the study found that the Schindler ratio was lower at the tenth quantile than at the median, indicating that the recession-proofing of the industry was more pronounced at the higher distribution levels. In conclusion, the Schindler ratio is a valuable metric for investors to consider when assessing a company's resilience in the face of an economic recession. Companies with higher Schindler ratios tend to be more recession-proof than those with lower ratios. The Schindler ratio can also be used to compare the relative recession-proofing of different industries. Here is list of the best recession-proof companies based on the ratio: Berkshire Hathaway JP Morgan Chase Apple Amazon Microsoft Google Johnson & Johnson Wells Fargo Procter & Gamble Wal Mart Visa ExxonMobil Bank of America Pfizer Chevron Comcast Intel UnitedHealth Group Coca-Cola Home Depot Merck Goldman Sachs CVS Health AT&T Walgreens McDonalds Oracle JPMorgan Chase Starbucks Lockheed Martin United Technologies American Express Boeing General Electric Abbott Laboratories IBM CitiGroup Honda Motor Honeywell International Lowe's Novartis 3M Honda
AMEX:SPY
by shkspr
A traders’ week ahead playbook – the BoJ gets the full focus Having returned from three weeks of annual leave with a renewed focus, it feels like the transitioning market expectations and positioning from a hard-landing economic scenario to one that is less bad one still has legs, and the positive risk sentiment should hold for now, although we must be prepared to react to changes in sentiment and price. The drivers; EU Nat gas falling to the lowest levels since late 2021, a major factor behind some positive economic upgrades to EU GDP. China’s more aggressive re-opening promoting strong trending conditions in CN50, HK50, copper, USDCNH, crude and gold. While much of the US hard data is holding up well and a belief the survey data may positively converge higher, and this comes amid a slight decline in nominal and real rates. The easing of US financial conditions does pose a risk ahead of a raft of Fed speakers this week, some of whom may want to keep the option of a 50bp hike on the table, at a time when US hard data is still robust, and the labour market is in fine health. Another big volatility driver would be if the BoJ disappoints market expectations and leaves policy unchanged for now – I’d argue after last week’s moves below 128.00 in USDJPY, and Japan 10yr swap rates into 1%, there is a skew in expectations/positioning towards either shifting the yield target band to 0.75% or even 1%, perhaps even abolishing altogether, but maintaining a commitment to buy bonds through QE. Some say this latter action is too soon after the changes that we saw on 20 Dec, but for me, the question is why wait? There is increasing inflation in Japan, political pressure to end YCC and the markets are consistently testing the BoJ – most importantly, the JGB market remains highly dysfunctional and the BoJ is having to buy far more bonds than the JPY9t p/m they detailed they would buy in December. 1-week USDJPY implied vols are sky-high, so this highlights the risks to JPY positioning for traders – position sizing here will keep you in the game. Where is the balance of risks? Given expectations, I see downside risks this week for the JPY and while the trend is for a stronger JPY, as a risk manager I would be looking to part cover JPY longs into the BoJ meeting. For now, though, there are big moves and trends across markets – the preference is to take a systematic approach - over a tactical one – and look for continuation in the moves in the USD, gold, NAS100, CN50, XAU, crypto and crude. That is, at least until we see price close below/above the 5-day EMA or a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover, which could highlight a loss of momentum and promote a change in order book dynamics. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? US Q4 earnings – it’s a quiet week on the US Corp. reporting front, where we see just 5% of the S&P500 market cap hitting us with numbers, with the reporting calendar really heating up next week. Of the company's reporting, Netflix (report after market on Thursday / 8 am Friday AEDT) should get the lion's share of attention from clients. Consider that Netflix’s implied move on the day of earnings is 8.6% and with a creep higher in recent price action into $332, this is a one for the equity traders. Central bank speakers – I will be looking closely at the 9 Fed speakers this week, as well as 7 ECB speakers, who will hit the wires through the week. On the Fed front, Lael Brainard (20 Jan at 05:15 AEDT) and John Williams (20 Jan 10:35 AEDT) get the most attention for possible loose guidance for a step down in future rate hikes to 25bp at the 2 Feb FOMC meeting. Given the bearish trend in the USD, there are risks the Fed speakers push back on these easing of financial conditions – so Fed speeches pose a risk in some of the price trends taking place across markets. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? MONDAY • Martin Luther King Day – no US cash equity trading, partial trading on the session in futures. TUESDAY • China high-frequency data dump (all data points due out at 13:00 AEDT) - Industrial production (consensus at 0.2%), retail sales (-9.5%), fixed asset investment (5%) and Q4 GDP (1.6%) – the market holds conviction in its view of a positive turn in the data around the start of Q2, on the back of the reopening measures and stimulus announced – so this data series is in the review mirror and I would not be too concerned with holding copper, SpotCrude, AUD, CNH or China equity exposures over this data point and do not expect it to move markets too intently. • UK employment data (18:00 AEDT) – hard to see this causing too much in the way of GBP vol, but worth having on the radar if trading the GBP. As such, we see GBPUSD 1-week options implied vol at the 21st percentile of its 12-month range. Average weekly earnings are expected to push to 6.2% (from 6.1%), while the 3m U/E rate is eyed unchanged at 3.7%. • German ZEW survey (21:00 AEDT) – With the improvement seen in some of the EU data flow of late, and EU Nat Gas trading to the lowest levels since Dec ‘21, the market expects the ZEW survey of expectations to improve at -15 (from -23.3 in the Dec read). Not expecting the data point to materially move the EUR and it should confirm the markets-held view that things are far less bad in Europe. WEDNESDAY • BoJ meeting (no set time) – the marquee event risk of the week. After last week’s report in Yomiuri, the market is fiercely watching to see the actions from the BoJ. There are increasing expectations the BoJ could either alter its YCC (yield curve control) program, where they contain the 10-yr JGB at a yield of -/+0.50%, potentially taking it out to 0.75%, or even abolish it altogether – possibly replacing YCC with QE and a commitment to buy JGBs. USDJPY and JPY implied volatility is at the highest levels since May 2020, so it’s a big week for the JPY and JPN225. Clearly, the BoJ have no choice but to stop the YCC program, but whether that happens this week or at some point in the next couple of meetings is up for debate – if they abolish YCC the JPY could fly. Conversely, if they don’t alter/abolish YCC and change the maturity of the yield target (to say the 5yr JGB) then we could see big JPY weakness. • UK CPI (18:00 AEDT) – the market sees headline inflation coming in at 10.5% (from 10.7%) and core inflation at 6.2% (6.3%). A 50bp hike from the BoE at the Feb meeting looks likely at this stage, so we’d need a really weak print to bring rates pricing below 40bp. Fundamentally, the GBP screens relatively unattractive vs other G10 currencies, with long EURGBP a big consensus trade in play. Eyeing the price action in this pair I have no major conviction but see an elevated risk of a move lower into 0.8800, where I’d be looking for better buyers. • EU Dec CPI (21:00 AEDT) – this is a revision from the recently announced 9.2% YoY print on headline and 5.2% on core. Unless there is a big change then this shouldn’t move the EUR too intently. We see a 50bp hike priced for the 2 Dec ECB meeting and terminal rats pricing around 3.3% later this year. THURSDAY • US PPI (00:30 AEDT) – the market expects US Dec PPI inflation to fall from 7.4% to 6.8% - typically PPI is far less impactful than CPI, but the correlation with corporate earnings is higher. In a market hellbent on watching inflation metrics, the PPI print holds modest risks for USD and US equity positioning. • US Dec retail sales (also 00:30 AEDT) – with US Q4 GDP tracking above 3% and traders positioning away from a hard landing growth scenario, retail sales could influence this growth debate – the market sees a 90bp decline (MoM), with the ‘control group’ element eyed at -0.4%. Bad numbers, relative to expectations, will weigh on the USD here, although I am not expecting this to be a big volatility event. • Australia Dec employment report (11:30 AEDT) – the market expects 22.5k jobs to be created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.4%, on a participation rate of 66.8%. Rates markets are yet to be fully convinced of a 25bp hike from the RBA on 2 Feb, so a hot jobs number and it could push pricing closely to the full 25bp. The current terminal rates pricing sits close to 3.7%. Happy to hold AUD exposures over the jobs report event, as the AUD holds a close relationship with copper, China equity and broad risk sentiment than domestic factors. AUDCAD is on the radar and the momentum suggests risks for a further push higher to 0.9400. FRIDAY • Japan national CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the national print comes after the more forward-looking Tokyo CPI print, subsequently, the market expects Japan CPI to come in at 4% (from 3.8%). The CPI also print comes after the BoJ meeting, so depending if the BoJ acts decisively on Wednesday, the influence may be muted. • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (12:30 AEDT) – while the broad consensus is that the PBoC will leave policy unchanged, it would not surprise to see we could see a slight cut of 10bp in the prime rate. The market also is on edge for a further easing of the RRR (reserve ratio requirement), an outcome that would increase the level of liquidity into the economy and be a further positive for Chinese equity markets and the AUD Good luck to all
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics
VVIX Lowest ADX Reading in History - WARNINGThe weekly ADX indicator is sitting at 8 (NO TREND) at the same time VVIX reached it's lowest value since March 2017. EXTREME COMPLACENCY can be presumed. A market without fear is DANGEROUS. Either markets continue higher in the face of continuing rate hikes & QT or markets SELLOFF & VIX spikes catching everyone offsides. I go with the latter. Expecting VVIX ADX to SURGE WITH $VIX. Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. GL
VLong
by EpicEconomics
VIX | GOLD | DXY |DECRYPTERS|OVERVIEWHi welcome To Team Decrypters This is just the over view of charts which will help you in your analysis surely GOLD :- As for gold price closed bullish so we can see gap up till 1931 and than fill the gap below created GAP ,After that retracement till 1911 or 1900 can be Expected ,A Deeper retracement would be till 1880. VIX :- VIX is just a volatility measuring indicator which is inversely correlated with Risk on Assets (Meaning the more vix goes down the more risk on asset is ON ) since VIX is Approaching a key level w expecting a short term bounce at least , Hence Retracement in risk On Assets Note :- Gold is Risk off Asset but it can give retracement because of DXY DXY:- i will only say for dxy soon it will surprise all of us :)
ICEUS:DXY
by DECRYPTERS
It Works Until It Doesn't, 15th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ This daily note comes a day early because I probably won't have time tomorrow morning. ➤ The VIX has fallen to it's lowest level for many months. It looks to be heading lower. This was a result of continued optimism in something...I'm not sure what exactly. Nevertheless, I'm not interested in knowing. I'm only interested in making money. ➤ Previously, when the VIX fell to these levels, we saw it reverse higher with equity markets falling. It was going like clockwork. However, markets don't remain static, things works until it doesn't. Many people have found this out with the reversal of the Dollar Trade. ➤ The next level for the VIX to potentially reverse higher is at 16. This was the low set at the ALL TIME HIGH for the S&P500 equity index. If you look back further in time, this level was the lows set on many occasions in 2021. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: FIX your eyes on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DXY Monthly - King Dollar - ResurgenceThe ADX indicator was rising from 15 (weak trend) to 35 (strong trend) since March 2022 before a recent decline. As the dollar has lost its strength, the ADX rolled over along with RSI. I believe the Dollar will find support here and begin another uptrend. Potentially a violent upswing as the Fed HAS NOT PIVOTED and continues to tighten financial conditions through more rate hikes and continuing QT. The ADX should rise again and I believe beyond the noted resistance of 40. The masses are FOMOing into stocks & crypto yet again with Greed/Fear index at GREED level 63. NAMO/NYMO are also the most elevated in years. $VIX has collapsed to 18 showing FEAR IS ABSENT. A market without fear is DANGEROUS! Protect your #kingdollar as RISK "assets" are primed for a WATERFALL SELLOFF due to over leveraged and over concentrated positions. The DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION is near. GL.
TVC:DXYLong
by EpicEconomics