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1-VIX

Fear curve inversionWe are all familiar when a bear market starts. The fear instantly hits us, the cold sweat. We've all been there... To study bear markets and crashes, we need to study human psychology. Curiously, it is very predictable. This is your mind, my mind, everyone's mind. Either you go through depression, either through financial disaster, it is the same. I tried analyzing psychology before in this idea down below, I really enjoyed it. As a trader, you might use two moving averages, for example one 50 day and one 200 day. To make sense of where you are, you need two measures. VIX is a measure of what we think future volatility will look like. So to make sense of it, you need something to compare it to. Answer? Current volatility. TradingView offers a neat little tool called "Historical Volatility". So we have a way to estimate current SPX volatility and compare it to what everyone thinks volatility will be like in the next 30 days (VIX). So I devised this chart, on top we see SPX. On bottom white we have a moving average of VIX index. On bottom orange we have the current volatility as measured by the indicator. Let's head to a period of a "bear market". A period when relative calm exists and noone expects a crash. During this period, we see that whenever there is a drop followed by a bear rally, the future expected volatility (VIX) decreases. Actual volatility (orange line) increases. It shows that everyone expects LESS volatility in the future ahead. Since a significant part of investors were convinced the bottom was in. The same we witness now. This is a vicious circle, something fundamental has to change in psychology to change the outcome. Either we find the button to fix all our problems, or we face the consequences that are fated to come upon us. Down below I add some screenshots showing the periods where orange was above white. This is a period when we are hopeful of the future ahead of us, after we pass some trouble that came. If you need more info, do read the linked idea called "VIX | The effect on SPX" PS. Just like yield curve inversions, there is room for error. A fear curve inversion means that you just have to stay alert. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
2
Low Low Low Low...28th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "Shawty had them apple bottom jeans (jeans) Boots with the fur (with the fur) The whole club was lookin' at her She hit the floor (she hit the floor) Next thing you know Shawty got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low" ➤ That's the lyric from the song by Flo Rida. I had to look up the meaning of "Shawty". It is usually a reference to a young and attractive woman. Sexist or not this term nicely describes what's happening with the NASDAQ and the sexier (ahem...speculative) tech names. It looks like it wants to finish the year low low low low. ➤ The whole club (market) was indeed lookin' at her. All imagining the boundless future you could have together...except like many, we were late to the party and the music was about to stop. She's been dancing on the floor this whole time. Next thing you know, she literally did hit the floor in the most unflattering way along with all our dreams. ➤ OK, that's a bit over dramatic but you get the point. As usual, the masses piled on late to an overinflated market and that meant the party was about to end. ➤ With today's price action, once again we had a false dawn. Pre-market was firmly positive only to see it whither away by US market open. NASDAQ leading the indices lower. It's not pretty and getting tiresome. ➤ I currently hold 0% exposure. My US positions were cut today. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Back on the sidelines.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Same Same, 27th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Thing's pretty much look the same as expectations prior to the Christmas Holidays. I'm expecting equity prices to bounce higher. The extent of which will tell us if the Bulls can regain a foothold or the Bears once again take control. ➤ Price again bounced off the Support level at 379/380 on the SPY. Pre- US Market Trade in Asia is firmly positive. Pre-hours have been wildly unpredictable of actual direction during US Trading hours. ➤ I currently hold +34% long exposure. My European positions were cut but I may re-enter depending on today's action. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Watch for the Bounce (if any).
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
It's all AI. Watch the cycles, know the moves.Hey guys, so my mind is always chaotic, so don't mind all the drawings, but hopefully it will help you visualize what I see... The entire financial system, and I don't just mean the stock market, is all part of a giant super intelligent AI. Imagine all individual financial aspects of the economy, imagine it all on all a switch board with complex circuitry resembling a network of highways to each financial sector, and the computer knows how to shut off flow from one sector and switch the flow to another sector. This system can literally make money FLOW through a network of pipes that can shut the valve off and redirect flow of the currency. Not only can this computer do that, but while it's doing that, it knows how much to buy and sell, how long to hold, how long to let it go up, when to sell, initiates shorts, knows how much to let it drop before buying back in, how much to buy, how much to let it go up, when to sell, etc. It's literally repeating a mathematical algorithm similar to compound interest calculating. I don't care what anybody says....the market is manipulated...by an AI, There is no way that random people, at random times, buying at random prices, while simultaneously selling at random times at random prices, could produce the amount of perfect trends that we see in charts. Retail doesn't even budge the charts and is all an illusion. That's why 90% of traders lose. This the the place where everybody's money goes. If 90% are losing, and 10% is winning, that means that 10% are stealing the money of the 90% because they aren't as smart as the AI or have access to the switchboard, or have the money to flood into something. But just think about how dangerous and evil of a tool this capabality could be. The only way to win is through bluechip stocks purchased over and over and over, over the long term, regardless of up or down; or if you pull your money out when you have it. Point, blank, period. The only way you can win, is if you recognize the traps the AI has set in the past to be able to trap people's money, and know that the next time it rockets up, it's a trap to secure more money and for the old trapped people to leave at break even if they're lucky, because the pops become smaller and smaller and smaller. The entire market is a trap right now, but that doesn't mean that you can't take advantage if you're smart and can see what they do and see the cycles. My guess is with SPY, we're going to have a nice rocket up, for a good could days, long enough to make others think it's time to buy in, and it's going to slam down hard as hell. It's in the cycle.
AMEX:SPYShort
by rod_a_g1989
1
BTC/BVOL Bullish Continuation, VIX Bearish BAMM, DXY Bearish 5-0BTC looks to be continuing the move it started yesterday after hunting for the stops below the POC and then defending the EU Brinks Box During the US Brinks session. BVOL is Bullishly Diverging at the lows Signaling a rise in BTC Volatility is imminent. The SPX is Bouncing off of a Liquidity Zone and off of the 1.618 Extension PCZ of a Bullish Shark that may now take it back to the supply line and confirm a Partial-Decline for the second time. The VIX S&P Volatility Index seems to be struggling at the Moving Averages and setting up for a Deep Crab Bearish BAMM that will take it down to $14 The DXY is showing weakness at the PCZ of a potential Bearish 5-0 that will probably take it down to equal or lower lows than the previous low.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
Cheerless, 23rd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices made no further headway. Instead, a large Bearish day threatened to add to a Cheerless Christmas. Price managed to recover some losses by end of trading day leaving things in the lurch. ➤ NASDAQ is performing miserably. It's almost back to the lows of the year. One shouldn't be surprised it is lagging so badly. Used to being valued with a zero % interest/discount rate the exact opposite narrative of higher borrowing costs for longer is now firmly entrenched. ➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Belated Christmas Rally anyone?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Inspired, 22nd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If yesterday's bounce was uninspiring, the Bulls were clearly inspired today. It's almost Christmas Cheer time after all. The VIX has collapsed back to the pink highlighted zone in the chart. Let's see if the Bulls can break below. It's been bound by this zone since the start of the year! ➤ I'm not looking for a big aggressive bounce. Although that would be a nice surprise. There has been a change of momentum in the rally since the Oct bottom. 390/3900 resistance looms large. The European indices are acting relatively stronger bouncing off the 50-day moving average. ➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Back in the action. Rally time?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Using the VIX to buy S&P, NASDAQ and Dow Jones 📈📉🐂What is TVC:VIX ? The VIX is a real-time volatility index created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). This index was the first benchmark to quantify market expectations regarding volatility. However, the index is forward-looking, which means that it only shows the implied volatility of the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 30 days. Since the VIX reaches its highest levels when the stock market is more unstable, the media communication tend to refer to the VIX as an indicator of fear and in the sense that the VIX is a measure of the market perception (particularly of concern) such a description is correct. The implied volatility normally increases when markets present turbulence or the economy decays. Conversely, if the prices of stocks are rising and not changes seem likely substantial, the VIX tends to fall or stay stable at the bottom of your scale. In other words, there is a negative correlation between the VIX and the stock performance. For example, in November 2008, a As stock prices rise dipped, the VIX hit a high historical of 80.86. in the winter of 2013, when the value of the shares rose, the VIX held at about 12 points. WHAT DOES THE VIX MEASURE? The VIX measures the expectations of volatility of the capital market based on the option prices. Instead of measuring volatility “realized” or historical, the VIX projects volatility “implied” or expected—specifically from the 30s future days—by measuring changes in S&P 500 option prices. Historically, when the VIX reaches 40 points or more, the S&P is at the end of its downward trend to make a range or rise, when the VIX reaches 40 points is when it could be said that we are already in recession and "when there is blood, it is because the sharks already attacked" possibly in 2023 we are facing a recession but it could end in a few months and in 2024 have a rise in the American indices as can be seen above. REMEMBER "HISTORY DOESN'T REPEAT BUT IT RHYMES" TVC:SPX TVC:NDQ TVC:DJI Possibly the recession ends in the first half of 2023 when the FED lowers interest points to 0.25%
SP:SPXLong
by Ed_Ale
Warning VIX model is now set up to SOAR My work posted a few days back call for a drop to below 20 .Today we saw this and I was 85 % plus net long goint into this morning in trow spy qqq smh aapl and calls I HAVE SOLD EVERYTHING net gain 3.5 to 4.6 % I am now back to 100 % cash the net gain for 2022 is now back above 64.2 % . I stated this rally would be very strong into jan 3/10 2023 see 1973 chart dec 15 . The issue is now that the VIX did not get up to mid 24 /27 as I had hoped . So what is next well we had 4 days below the bb bands which on odds rallies min back into it and we saw that today . I do NOT like the pattern in the vix see the arrows and this formation the last 4/5 times the VIX SOARED > I am flat and I will not short . I am NOT SURE with this setup I must PROTECT GAINS as everyone else takes losses of min 20 % see forecast dec 2021 model min drop 20% for 2022 well 2023 I think we will see another 16.8 to 21 % drop I am working on the cycles as well as the SPIRALS . best of trades WAVETIMER
TVC:VIX
by wavetimer
2
Uninspiring, 21st December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ We saw the smallest of bounces in the S&P500. It was uninspiring. Still, an upward move has to start from somewhere. Today may be the day to risk some capital. ➤ Uninspiring too is the Poll I took about people's opinions on which group of market participants might do well next year. 45% voted for "Everyone is a Loser". The contrarian in me would suggest that gives hope for a decent positive performance for equity markets in 2023. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
VIX | The effect on SPXI would like to do some qualitative analysis on VVIX/VIX, and it's behavior/effect on markets. We will try to pinpoint some "wave types". A. The most consistent/stable growth for SPX occurs in times of stable VIX and stable VVIX. Their ratio remains the same. B. At times of decreasing VIX and increasing VVIX, we have an unstable, impulsive upwards wave. This occurs after a VIX peak. While everyone expects a lower VIX, as time passes markets get increasingly indecisive about the future of VIX. Therefore VVIX increases. VIX measures the sentiment of SPX, while VVIX the sentiment of VIX. C. A period of unusually low VIX leads to speculative growth. This growth in the end, traps both the VVIX/VIX chart, and the price chart. D. In the above waves, VVIX/VIX is either trending up or horizontally for prolonged periods. A variation from it is a period of prolonged VVIX/VIX drop. During this period, sentiment is homogenous, everyone believes that VIX will increase. A consistent belief in the VIX fate, is pushing VVIX lower. An unusually low VVIX describes a period like now, or 2008. Everyone is preparing for the drop. Some examples will follow: D WAVE (2008-2009) I have highlighted two very important points during this drop. First, the small circles. This is the point of a rapid sentiment change. Curiously, this point is many months after the FED is done with rate hikes. It is actually when it begins to drop rates. The big circles are in a period of denial, a period during which everyone believes that the bottom is in. VVIX/VIX attempts to escape the descending channel. B WAVE (2009-2011) A WAVE (2012-2015) C WAVE (2016-2018) I find very interesting the retracements that occured after this rapid growth. C WAVE (2020-2021) D WAVE (2022) Just like 2008, the shift in sentiment in September 2021 is very apparent. Likewise, now we are witnessing the period of denial. As a final thought, what we are witnessing with the D waves is not the effect of FED, it is the effect of sentiment on it's own. We witness the specific points of sentiment change, which don't depend (?) on the FED hike schedule. And curiously, they are in identical spots as in 2008. One before the peak, one in the point of denial. Perhaps what everyone fears is the terminal rate. Or we fear the drop, we fear of losing. I don't know...
V
by akikostas
2
Where are the Bulls? 20th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities continued their free-fall. It has now given back 50% of the gains as measured from the Oct bottom to Dec top. Price has reached a support zone. This is an ideal area for prices to rebound higher. ➤ Can you believe it? There are only 8 trading days left in the year. It's been such a tumultuous year that I can't even recall all the ups and downs. As a Trader, I can normally replay all my trades in my mind. With the roller coaster nature of the price movements, those trades have all been mashed up. That being said, I can't wait to see what surprises the market will throw at us next year. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
4
1st Leg Down, 19th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A Change of Character "CHoCH" has occured in S&P500 uptrend since the Oct bottom. The drop since 13th Dec looks to be the largest in size. This changes the momentum of the Bulls. Either Bulls will take pause with some sideways movement prior to igniting another run higher or the Bears will now come out to play. I favour the Bearish scenario right now. ➤ Price has closed the 10th Nov price gap. There is an opportunity for price to rebound higher to relieve the recent selling. The resistance at 390/3900 would be an ideal stopping area for the next leg down if the Bearish scenario plays out. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro