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1-VIX

What's with the VIX? 13th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today we saw the unusual situation where the VIX jumped significantly higher and the S&P500 equity index also rose higher. Normally, these two indices move opposite to each other i.e. higher level of volatility (often due to fear) leads to lower equity prices and vice versa. ➤ Astute watchers would have seen this occurrence a few times in the past. The last time I recall something like this happening was during August 2020. For five trading days, S&P500 moved exponentially higher whilst VIX jumped from 20 to above 30. S&P500 then reversed quickly and wiped out all the gains within a couple of days. ➤ I'm not expecting the above outcome with imminent Inflation data on 13th Dec and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec. The relationship with the VIX and S&P500 should snap back very quickly. Perhaps what is happening is that there are big bets by both Bulls and Bears, bidding up the price of volatility. What may happen is a complete fizzle in equity prices with a lack of movement. ➤ I currently hold a -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Perhaps people's expectations are getting ahead of themselves.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
NIFTY50 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022NIFTY50 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.87%, equal to 1.87% last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 23rd percentile, while according to INDIA VIX, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.8% movement Bearish: 1.55% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 18740 BOT: 18060 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 30% probability we are going to touch previous high 18740 66% probability we are going to touch previous low 18407 (already hit) Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NSE:NIFTY
by exlux
No, the VIX isn't riggedVIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX /ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX /ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
1
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
There Is No VIX "Suppression Program"VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX/ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX/ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
CBOE:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
All About Support, 12th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The S&P500 equity index is holding above the key support level at 390/3900. A confident break below will result in a Change of Character (CHoCH) in the uptrend since the Oct low. ➤ A CHoCH results in a significant pause in the uptrend or a reversal of the trend. ➤ By holding above the support level, there would not be a CHoCH. Hence the bias is for continued upside. ➤ Inflation data on 13th and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec are clear catalysts for price movement. ➤ I currently hold a -17% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is set-up perfectly for a binary outcome. I don't want to be heavily involved here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!It is no secret, when the major indexes move down, the VIX goes up. We can see the inverse correlation quite easily as the VIX had a major bearish wave, from Sept. to Nov., just as the DJI and SPX moved up. Now the VIX bottomed late November and this week closed above MA200 and EMA300. The first green week in multiple months. Ok, let's predict the future. The VIX will move first to 27.90, easily. It can go higher and hit 30 and also higher... 33. Midterm (1-3 months). Long-term (3-6 months or longer) ... Above 43 and even 58. Ok! Let's just wait, nobody can predict the future... And these are just codes... You are looking at squares and lines on a screen... Really? We will see! Thank you for reading. Namaste.
TVC:VIXLong
by AlanSantana
2
o' man o' man.if i'm right about this, so many people are going to so devastated. most market participants are already completely and utterly distraught, this rally could just simply set them over the edge. --- i'm theorizing a full blown rally in the months ahead, right into april \ may. --- russel200 expanded flat target sits right a the 1.75 algo, which is roughly at $2392 --- please don't treat this as financial advice. consult your financial advisor before making any decisions in this market.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by Eloquent
a leap of faith?due to tv's guidelines, i can't express myself the way i'd like to, so i'm going to keep this post as vanilla as possible. --- nasdaq looks to be setting up for an even larger rally than i initially imagined. figured i'd gift you guys this projection right before market closes today, just in case you were feeling on the edge about it. --- my conservative upside target on the nasdaq sits at the 1.75 expanded flat target ($15,385) likely to be hit into April. --- the next two days could be very rocky, so be super careful. >also keep in mind that i could absolutely be wrong about this, so don't treat this idea as a means to go all in or something else that's totally rash. >be mindful of the bearish potential here, understand that we're deep in a recession, and that this is a very contrarian outlook of a very complex situation misunderstood by the majority. --- happy holidays ♥
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Eloquent
Where to Now? 9th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm back from my holiday and fully recharged. Since my last technical update, the equity market has made some interesting moves that we need to examine. ➤ Foremost in my mind is of a potential medium term top that has been reached.🔝 I'm using S&P500/SPY as the market proxy. If we look at the market since March 2022, there has been two previous occasions where this scenario has occurred: 29th March and 16th Aug. The VIX fell below 20 and then rebounded higher. S&P500 proceeded to then decline by around -20%. 📉 ➤ This scenario has just played out with the peak on 1st Dec. VIX has bounced higher after falling below 20. IF history repeats/rhymes, we are looking for another 20% drop. 🙀 That would take us down to 330/3300 for the SPY/SPX500. Each drop occurred over a two month period. That would mean both an ugly end to this year and start of the next. ➤ For this to occur, the market will have to counter both the Christmas rally and a historically bullish January. Readers would point out Jan this year as the perfect counter example. ➤ I currently hold a -25% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: History does rhyme...but is it the Bullish or Bearish rhyme?
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro