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1-VIX

Volatility Rally | Major Demand ZoneThe Volatility Index (VIX) has been in a historical downtrend the past weeks / 2 months! VIX has also been moving abnormal in relation to the S&P 500 Index which it tracks Volatility in. The Volatility Index has sunk to a major demand zone, and is now breaking back out of the area. After hitting Lows of around $19 the VIX is breaking out upwards. We are seeing a dump in the markets from major S&P Bear Market Trendline as well. Bears are stepping in at these levels in the markets, and the volatility index is rising, signaling further downward movement coming in the market. Simply put, the Volatility index is breaking out from its Major Demand Zone, and generally if history repeats will rally up to the supply zone up around the $30 level. This has been a typical swing move in the index since the beginning of 2022. Reasons VIX looks bullish : - TTM Squeeze (Daily & Weekly) - Reclaimed Daily EMA Cloud - Market Rejecting Major Trendline (S&P) - Cup & Handle on VIX (1hr / 1D) - Double Bottom - Market Greed - CPI & FOMC coming up How to play : $UVIX commons $VIX option calls etc. There are multiple reasons Volatility is rising currently, and Technicals back this thesis up strongly. I hope you liked the though!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
Tomorrow the Dollar will continue it's descent!Now that we've retested the neckline of our H&S which intersects perfectly with the 200 day moving average, the dollar will have found permission from the bulls, who will give up here, to continue it's descent. Follow the VIX in correlation with this downward trend and we will begin to observe still more bullish activity in the stock market. Should the moves be significant, we can only hope that crypto will follow slightly, or at least hold from sustaining more losses. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
$VXX looks like it's about to explode higherSo far the selloff has been pretty orderly the entire year and trying to play volatility hasn't worked. I think that's about to change. $VXX has been consolidating in these two channels and looks like it's about to explode higher. If we can see $VXX get above $21 or so, I think we're about to see a huge move in $VXX. Similar to what we saw in March 2020. I've marked off key levels of resistance on the upside. Let's see if it plays out over the coming weeks.
CBOE:VXXLong
by benjihyam
3
let's talk about the bull case.g'morning. we've talked about the bear case for awhile, let's talk about the bull case. --- over the last few months, there has been absolute armageddon in the markets bulls have been slaughtered, bears have been slaughtered - while the wolves consistently continue to feast on the finest of all the delights. --- what i'm suggesting here, is not bullish in the slightest bit, in fact, this is as bearish as it gets when you zoom out and look at the larger picture, but just for the next few months, i predict a major move up which will get 95% of the market 100% bullish. --- i will continue to hold my bearish stance on the larger picture, and i'll happily update you guys if something changes. --- nq1! wave b target = 14~15k.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Eloquent
How VIX follows SPXVIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance. I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance. These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can use risk management for better financial decisions. If we do some "magic" we can transform these notoriously unchartable indices. I am aware that since VIX takes the value of SPX, gets affected by both the volatility and the price of SPX. So technically from it's nature VIX tracks SPX. If, for example, we plot the chart (1-VIX) we will see the following: As we already know, he inverse of VIX follows SPX. Low volatility equals high SPX. The calculation logic of the chart is: Scale down VVIX such that it is in a similar scale to VIX. Then subtract one from the other. SPX is scaled down, after we divide it by M2SL. I would guess that from 2009 to 2019, the growth was sustained because VIX was consistently low. I also noticed that VVIX this year is incredibly low. One would expect that with such this year's recession that VVIX would also pick up the pace. During periods of very high volatility like the Great Recession, VVIX tracks VIX. Not this year however... As a fellow trader pointed out quite some time ago: Now VIX is higher and it's behavior with VVIX is very similar to 2008. We could say that the current situation is much similar to 2000 or with 1970s with stagflation and not 2008. Some things however, they smell foul. The elephant in the room maybe... SKEW is in an all-time low. This could encourage investors to over-expose. THAT is when crashes happen. Overexposing when liquidity is being dried up from the FED, is a recipe for disaster. Even if we grow from here and everyone wins, who will have the money to pay back all these winnings? Especially now, with everyone investing like crazy, over-leveraging and such. And if EVERYONE is buying, who is selling? "Buying the dip" is part of the equation... I believe that the bottom is NOT in yet. And since charting indirect stuff like VIX, like housing, yields, energy, all point to the same direction, I cannot ignore them. PS. The elephant is the collapsed worldwide-production-chain. The elephant is that we are one step away from war or famine. And maybe, just maybe, the elephant is long gone... we just don't know it yet. And we are talking about how the DOW will not fall. We are convinced that we are in the bottom and we are buying the dip. We are dreaming of more money quicker. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori I am not a trader, I am a father of a cat named Alyx. Don't take what I say as trading advice.
V
by akikostas
es 11-30 update 🗝good evening my peoples, --- it was exactly 22 days ago when i gave you that 4130 level. lot of bears ignored my post, and got squeezed out today for a significant loss. i pour this aapl juice out for you, my dearest bear frens. --- as of today, i'm starting to entertain the possibility of es seeing yet again, Another expansion. sounds kinda wild i know, but that's what happens when everyone tries to short the market. the guys who run this game just keep running it up ---> whilst taking all the hard earned bear money. >once the last bear falls, >they know it because they see it, >and when they see it , >they drop the market. --- 4130 Could be the top, don't discount it. it is a significant algorithmic resistance which was programmed to get hit over a month ago. here's the key though, if you've read this far: watch how the market pulls back from 4130. 🗝does it come down in 3 waves? if so, expect higher prices. 🗝does it come down in 5 waves? if so, you caught the top. --- og target = $4130 expansion target = $4225.25 ---
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
3
Volatility S&P 500 Index, Daily, The Upcoming Market Crash?I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly created flip zone (gray box on the chart) and a dynamic increase in volatility. Volatility means big drops or big gains. In the current macroeconomic situation, it is difficult to think about dynamic increases, especially this winter. The potential trade on VIX to rebound from the green zone and break through the peaks from March 2020 has as much as a 20:1 risk-reward ratio (SL under the zone). I am sure there will be even more great opportunities for this scenario on shorting, i.e., SP500, Nasdaq 100 or DAX.
TVC:VIXLong
by MichaelFX_ICT
6
S&P 500, Daily, 2008 Analogy - before the worst?I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the price from that point, as it was with 1313 in 2008. It is also important to look at the VIX index (related idea linked) and the lower time frame structure (by the analogy, there should be no big drops, but confirmation in the medium and short-term structure - 1H/15m). If the swing low is broken, I will be looking at the momentum in order to predict the bottom. Personally, I think the March 2020 low will be broken. In 2008, we also had a break of the bear market low after the dotcom bubble. Of such fundamental matters that indicate the further course of the bear market, I can include, for example: - inverted yield curves , - a huge divergence between T10Y2Y and T10Y3M before the curve is inverted, - a divergence between Real and Nominal Disposable Personal Income (Nominal is rising, Real is in decline), - a divergence between Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade (is rising) and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (in decline) since March 2021, - the recessionary PMI. And that is all I wanted to convey to you. Not investment advice, only my own opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
4
VIX D1: Setting up for 150% BURST TP 38/ 40 (SWING)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! VIX D1: Setting up for 150% BURST TP 38/ 40 (SWING) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as LONG because I expect PUMP soon. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: VIX D1 chart market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: buy VIX March 2023 calls ::: near 14/15 expecting reversal ::: setup still valid as of today ::: repeating pattern from the past ::: compression into XABCD BULLS pattern ::: before 150% massive PUMP ::: already repeated twice ::: 2017 and 2019 ::: also liquidity near GAP FILL ZONE ::: GAP getting filled then we PUMP ::: XABCD BULLS / point D / PRZ near 14/15 ::: Until FED slow drift lower ::: near 14/125final LOW / get ready to BUY LOW ::: we are setting up for 150% PUMP ::: it's a slow process BUT expect FAST reversal ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/correction mode ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/150% GAINS ::: Technical structure: XABCD BULLS RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:VIXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
7
Likely Bearish Confluence - S&P500, VIX, DXY & EURUSD Powells recent remarks gave the S&P the boost it needed to test the weekly bearish trend line and now price action is also at a strong horizontal area of resistance. Other indices such as the FTSE have retraced most of the drawdown from when markets started falling at the start of the year. The S&P also is currently testing its Weekly 50ema. The VIX, which is the volatility index of the S&P is also heavily oversold and is sitting right back in a large area of support, as would be expected from the S&P moving higher in recent weeks. DXY, which has seen a pretty strong pullback after the recent bear market equity rally is now back at Weekly support, which coincides with getting very close to its Weekly 50ema. The confluence seen is also reflected in EURUSD, which is retesting its Weekly 50ema and a weekly horizontal resistance level. At current the confluence in the markets is pretty clean. Powell seemed to suggest that next months rate increase would be 50 basis points and the markets seemed to really bounce from that news. However, Powell was hardly dovish. If anything it seems to me that the recent rally after Powells comments enabled the markets to move up to a good area for bearish positioning. Short S&P, Long VIX, Short EURUSD and Long DXY.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Tall_Short